最新财经资讯.docx

最新财经资讯.docx

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最新财经资讯

最新财经资讯

第56期

（总第166期）

国际司2014-4-14

一、全球

1.近28亿新中产人士可能重陷贫困

2.联合国气候研究：

仍有时间拯救世界

3.投资新兴市场十大风险

二、美欧

1.美中如何治愈“相互依赖症”？

2.欧洲央行着手制定量化宽松政策路线图

三、亚洲

1.亚洲经济高增长带来的难题

2.中国暗示为经济增长创新低做准备

FragileMiddle:

2.8bnpeopleonthebrink

FT|April14,2014

Muljoko,a27-year-oldcleanerwhoworksinoneofJakarta’sgleamingofficetowers,hasallthetrappingsofanewlymintedmemberofthemiddleclass.Heownsamotorcycle,slingsaSonysmartphoneandhasafuturistic-lookingphone-watchstrappedtohiswristthatheusestotextfriendsduringworkinghours.

HeisinfinitelybetteroffthanwhenhewasgrowingupinanimpoverishedfarmingvillageinsouthernSumatra.Likemillionsaroundtheworldoverthepastthreedecades,MuljokohasrisenoutofpovertyandisnowaproudmemberofAsia’semergingurbanmiddleclass.

Andyet,acloserlookathisfinances–andhisaspirations–revealsthathisplaceinthemiddleclassismuchmorefragilethanitseems.

MuljokoearnsJakarta’sminimumwageofRp2.4mamonth,meaninghelivesofftheequivalentof$7aday.Roughlyhalfofthatgoestopayforfoodandthesmallboarding-houseroomheshareswithhisyoungerbrother.Aftercoveringfuelandmaintenancecostsforthemotorbike,heisleftwithaslittleasRp500,000（$44）–orlessthan$1.50aday–tocoveranydiscretionaryspending,sendmoneyhometohisfamilyinSumatra,orsaveforanall-importantwedding.

ItisnowonderMuljokofretsaboutthefuture.Heworriesaboutwhathewoulddoifhewereconfrontedwithafamilymedicalemergencyandhowhisearningswouldstretchifheweretomarryandhaveafamily.BytheAsianDevelopmentBank’sstandarddefinitionofmiddleclass–earningbetween$2and$20aday–Muljokoisamemberingoodstanding.Yethefeelsanythingbut.

“Idon’tfeelsecure,”hesays.

Inthat,theyoungIndonesianisemblematicofagroupincreasinglyinfocusasemergingeconomiesslow.Forallthetalkofanewmiddleclass,Muljokoisinfactpartofwhatisbetterdescribedastheworld’sfragilemiddle:

thealmost3bnpeopleinthedevelopingworldsurvivingonbetween$2and$10perday,puttingthemabovethepovertylinebutoftenstillstrugglingforthefinancialsecuritythatisamiddleclasshallmark.

Thereisnodoubttheworldislesspoorthanitoncewasorthatdecadesofrapidgrowthhavecreatedmillionsofconsumersaroundthedevelopingworld.In1990anestimated1.9bnpeople,ormorethanathirdoftheworld’spopulation,survivedonlessthan$1.25aday,accordingtotheWorldBank.By2010thatfigurehadfallento1.2bn,lessthanafifthofthepeopleonearth.

Inthe25yearssincethefalloftheBerlinWallthoseearningbetween$2and$10adayhavebeenthebiggestbeneficiariesofglobalisation.Therichworldmaybeengagedinadebateaboutrisinginequality,buttherapideconomicgrowthinChinaandotherdevelopingcountrieshasmadetheworldmoreequal,asBrankoMilanovic,oneoftheworld’sleadingauthoritiesoninequality,haswritten.

InChina,Indiaandsub-SaharanAfrica,robusteconomicgrowthhashelpedcreateavastclassofconsumers,attractingmultinationalcompaniesintentonsellingthemproductsthatwouldhavebeenoutofreachnotmanyyearsago:

mobilephones,beer,snacksandahostofhouseholdgoods.

Butputinaglobalcontext,thenumberofsolidlymiddle-classpeopleremainssmall,whilethefragilemiddlehasgrownexponentially.

AFinancialTimesanalysisofmorethan30yearsofWorldBankdatafrom122countriesinthedevelopingworldillustratesthischangeinfortunes.Aspovertyhasfallen,thenumberofpeopleclusteredinanarrowbandabovethepovertylinehasgrown.Butonlyarelativelysmallnumberofpeopletendtomakeitbeyondthat.Theresultisthatfourin10oftheword’speoplenowliveinitsfragilemiddle.

“Moreofhumanitylivesinthatgroupingthananyothergrouping,”saysHomiKharas,aneconomistattheBrookingsInstitutionthink-tank,whoisoneoftheworld’sleadingexpertsontheriseofanemerging-marketsmiddleclass,astatusthathesaysreallybeginsat$10aday.“Itislargerthanthemiddleclass.Itislargerthantherich.Itislargerthanthepoor.Thewholeobjectiveoughttobemovingthosepeopleintothemiddleclass.”

In2010,thefiguresforwhicharethelatestavailable,40percentoftheworld’spopulation–2.8bnpeople–livedon$2-$10aday（measuredin2005purchasingpowerparityterms）.Inthedevelopingcountries,therewere2.4bnpeoplesurvivingonlessthan$2adayandjust662mearningmorethan$10aday,accordingtotheFTanalysis.

Thenumbersreflectaremarkableshift.In1981,58percentoftheworld’spopulationlivedonlessthan$2aday.Just20percentoftheworld–930mpeople–earned$2-$10aday.

Butextendingthegainsisbecominghardernowthatthegreatemerging-marketgrowthspurtofthepast30yearsappearstomanytobecomingtoanend.Asgrowthslows,theriseofanemerging-marketmiddleclassmaylooklessinevitable.Inapaperpresentedlastweek,WorldBankeconomistswarnedthat“developing-countrygrowthcouldbe2-2.5percentagepointsweakerthanitwasduringthepre-crisisboomperiod”

AccordingtoKaushikBasu,chiefeconomistoftheWorldBank,evenifthedevelopingworlddeliveredtheabove-averagegrowththatitdidinthepast20yearsitisunlikelythatthebankwouldmeetitsgoalofeffectivelyeliminatingextremepovertyby2030.

Moreworryingisthepossibilitythataprolongedperiodofslowgrowthwoulderodethegainsofrecentdecades.Howvulnerablewouldthosewhohaverisenoutofpovertybetoslidingbackintoit?

“That’saverygoodquestion,”MrBasusays.“AndIthinktheyarestillveryvulnerable.”

Decadesofsuccesshaveledtoatendencytothinkofthefightagainstpovertyasaone-waypath:

peoplemoveuptheeconomicladderandrarelyslipback.Yetinmanydevelopingcountriesthereremainsahugechurnbetweenthoseaboveandjustbelowthepovertylineeachyear.IncomesinruralIndiaremainvulnerabletoabadharvest,sothemarchinandoutofpovertyislinkedintimatelywiththemonsoons.InIndonesia55percentofthepoorinanyyeararelikelytohavebeenlivingabovethepovertylinetheyearbefore,accordingtotheWorldBank.

SomedevelopmenteconomistsarguethatimprovedsocialsafetynetsincountriessuchasBrazilensurethatthosewhoriseoutofpovertyarelesslikelytoreturnthantheywereevenadecadeago.Butthosesafetynetshavelargeholes.

Thedouble-digitcontractiontheIndonesianeconomysawin1998amidtheAsianfinancialcrisisandtheendofthe34-yearruleofstrongmanSuhartosentmillionsslidingbackintopoverty.StronggrowthinrecentyearshasputIndonesiaonafirmerfooting.Butavastportionofthepopulationremainsvulnerable.In2010111mofIndonesia’s240mpeoplestilllivedonlessthan$2aday.Afurther125mpeopleexistedon$2-$10aday.

Whileafewhundredtycoonscontrolmuchofitswealth,99percentofbusinessesinIndonesiaaresmallandmicroenterprises.Andevenifmanyofthepeoplebehindthemhavetechnicallyrisenintothemiddleclass,theyremainvulnerabletoshocks.

RasyadParinduri,aneconomistatNottinghamBusinessSchool’scampusinMalaysia,callsthenoodlehawkersandfamilystoreownerswhomakeupmuchoftheIndonesianeconomy“subsistenceentrepreneurs”.Inarecentstudyhefoundthatthedeathofafamilymemberintheprecedingfiveyearsreducedtheirassetsbyanaverageof30percent.

Becausetheranksofthefragilemiddlearenowtoobigtoignore,itsmembersaredrivingchangeacrossthedevelopingworld.InbigdemocraciessuchasIndiaorIndonesia–bothofwhichareinthemiddleoflandmarkelections–pollsshowvotersgravitatingtowardscandidatespromisinggoodgovernance,reformandabrightereconomicfuture.InBrazil,wheretheeconomyisfacingaperiodofslowgrowthandrisinginflation,thefragilemiddlehasbecomeincreasinglyrestless,asshownbyriotslastsummerthatbeganwithacommunalparoxysmoverpoorpublictransport.

China’sleadersarefacingtheexistentialchallengeofkeepingtheirownfragilemiddlehappyastheytrytorebalancetheeconomy.RecentannouncementsoutofBeijinghavefocusedonprovidingaffordablehousing,residencepermitsandbettertransportinfrastructurecateringforthemigrantworkerswho,thoughtheyhavebenefitedfromChina’sboom,havealsobeensqueezedbyrisingpricesandlackofaccesstopubliceducationorhealthcare.

MrBasuremainsoptimisticthatsomethingclosetotherecentpatternsofgrowthwilleventuallyreturntothedevelopingworld.Butheisalsowaryofrisksthatcouldsetbackyearsofprogress:

theslowingChineseeconomy,newtechnologiessuchasrobotsand3Dprinters,andaworldwherewagesrepresentafallingshareofgrossdomesticproduct.

Theworldisataninflectionpoint,hesays,onethatitmaynotquitehaveregistered.“Ithinkitisaveryimportantmomentinglobaleconomichistory,”MrBasusays.“Butitisaverystrangemomentbecausethebiggestunderlyingchallengesarenotthemostvisiblechallenges.”

UNclimatestudy:

stilltimetosavetheworld

WashingtonPost|April14,2014

Disastrouseffectsofglobalwarmingcanstillbeavoided,theworld’sleadingclimatescientistssay,butonlybymakingaconcertedinternationalefforttocutcarbonemissionsthroughheavyinvestmentinrenewableandnuclearenergysources.

TheUNIntergovernmentalPanelonClimateChange’sthirdreportofatrioonglobalwarming,releasedonSunday,focuseson“mitigation”–howtofightrisingtemperaturesbylimitingthebuild-upofcarbondioxideandothergreenhousegasesintheatmosphere.