人民币升值英语文章.docx

人民币升值英语文章.docx

《人民币升值英语文章.docx》由会员分享，可在线阅读，更多相关《人民币升值英语文章.docx（6页珍藏版）》请在冰豆网上搜索。

人民币升值英语文章

RMBVALUE

HaoZhang

Intrduction

Fromtheyear2002,becauseChina'stradesurplusandforeignexchangereserveincreasedunceasingly,thecallofRenminbirevaluationofoverseascountriescontinuously.Especially,JapanhopeddevelopedcountriesofEuropeandAmericacanmakeanagreementtogether,liked"thesquareagreement"signedin1985.ThearticleattemptstodiscusstheunfavorableinfluenceofRenminbirevaluationtoChineseeconomyandworldeconomythroughelaboratingtheinfluenceof"thesquareagreement"toJapaneseeconomy,andwebelieve"thesquareagreement"certainlydoesnotsuittoresorvetheconflictofRenminbivalue,andthevalueofRenminbishouldbemaintainedstable.Finally,weproposeseveralmeasurestoalleviatethepressureofRenminbirevaluation.

ⅠTheconflictofRenminbivalue

Since2002,Renminbirevaluationpressureandtherevaluationanticipationfromtheoverseashadunceasinglyincreased.ThefirstattackwaslaunchedbyJapan:

inFebruary,2003,MasukowaSeijuuno,theMinisteroffinanceofJapanproposedRenminbirevaluationproposalintheconferenceofMinisteroffinanceofG7.Afterwards,inJune,2003,theAmericanenterprisestartedtodiscusstoforceRenminbitorevaluaby"301provisions";OnOctober1,2003,JohnTaylor,Americanvice-ministeroffinance,testifiedatthefinancecommittee'spublichearingofAmericanLowHouse,requestingtherevaluationofRenminbioncemoreorusingthefloatingexchangeratesystemassoonaspossible;moreover,thetransnationalgroupssuchasUS'sAmericanflaggroup,theDeutschebankandsoonalsopublishedreportstoforecastRenminbirevaluation.Therefore,sinceperiodoftimetheproblemofRenminbirevaluationhadbecomethefocalpointwhichthepeoplepaysattention.

Themainbasisof"Renminbirevaluationtheory"is"Chinaoutputsdeflationtheory",i.e.oneoftheimportantreasonofmainwesterndevelopedcountriesatdifficultpositionatpresentisthatChineselaborforcecostinexpensively,productivityofmanyproductsisovermuch,thepriceofexportcommodityoftentobelower,notonlycausesthefrequentlyprojectofimportofcommoditiescountryatthetradedeficitposition,moreoverhitsitscommoditypriceofdomesticmarket,makesthepriceunceasinglytowalklowly,receivesthethreatofdeflation.Itisnotdifficulttoseefromcurrentinternationaleconomydevelopmentsituation,thediscussionsregardingRenminbiexchangerateatpresent,mainlyareproposedbasedontheconditionofChina'sincreasingtradesurplusandforeignexchangereserve.

TheG8summitmeetingwhichwasheldonceayearhadbeenheldfromJuly6to8th,2005atroentgeneaglesmanorwhichwascalled"thehawkvalley"inEnglishScotland,andtheunbalanceofworldeconomygrowbecameoneoftheworldeconomicsdifficultproblemstheconferencefocused.TheproblemRenminbiexchangeratewasmentionedagainatthemeetingthat,theUS,EuropeanandJapaneagerlyforcedtheRenminbirevaluation,theirintentionliedinthat,throughtheRenminbirevaluationtoletChinaundertaketheconsequenceofunbalanceofworldeconomy.

ⅡTheinfluenceof“thesquareagreement”toJapaneseeconomy

SomebodyclaimedtoresorvetheproblemofRenminbivaluebythemethodof“thesquareagreement”,firstlyletustoknowtheinfluenceof“thesquareagreement”toJapaneseeconomy.

Inthebeginningof1980's,thefinancialdeficitoftheUSincreasedsharply,andthetradedeficitgrewlargely.TheUShopedtoincreasethecompetitiveabilityofexportcommoditiesthroughthedepreciationofUSdollar,inordertoimprovetheconditionofunbalanceofinternationalpayment.OnSep.22nd,1985,America,Japan,FederalRepublicofGermany,FrenchaswellasEngland'sministersoffinanceandCentralBankpresidentsheldtheconferenceinNewYorksquarehotel,achievedanagreementthatfivegovernmentsinterveneforeignexchangemarketunitedly,inductUSdollartodepreciatetothemaincurrencyexchangerateorderlytosolvetheproblemofUS’slargeamounttradedeficit.Becausetheagreementwassignedinsquarehotel,itiscalled"thesquareagreement".

Aftersubscriotionof"thesquareagreement",theabovefivecountriesstartedtotheintervenetheforeignexchangemarketunitedly,massivelyunderselledUSdollarintheinternationalforeignexchangemarket,subsequentlyformedtheundersellragingtideofmarketinvestors,andcausedUSdollartodepreciatecontinuouslybylargescale.Inlessthan3years,USdollarhaddepreciatedby50%totheJapaneseYen,inotherwords,theJapaneseYenhasrevaluedatimetoUSdollar.ThebitterfruitJapanswalloweddownhasstillnotbeencompletelydigesteduntilnow.BecauseJapantreated"thesquareagreement"tobeshortofcalm,estimatedthesituationofJapaneseYenrevaluationexcessivelyoptimistic,andtransferredtoimplementthecurrencyexcessivelyexpansionpolicy.FromJanuary,1986toFebruary,1987,Japancontinuouslydeclinedtheofficialdiscountrate,fellontheinternationallowest25%level.Thelong-termofficiallowinterestrateurgedthemassiveincreaseoffinancialloan,andmassivefundsinflowedintostockmarketandtherealestatedepartmentwhichledtosuddenlyriseofthepriceofstockandtherealestate.From1987~1989,thestockpricerisedby94%,themetropolislandpricerisedby103%,buttheexpendspriceindexonlyhadrisedby3.1%atthesametime.Inthiscondition,theincreaseofcreditcreatedeconomicbubble,theexpansionofbubblepromotedtheincreaseofcredit,andtheviciouscircleformed.Intheendof1989,Japaneseeconomyhadalreadycomprehensivelymarchedintothebubble.Japanwasanxiouslycompelledtoreducethecredit,thebubbleeconomyfinallystartedtocollapsein1991.Fromthistimeon,theJapaneseeconomyfellintolong-termrecession,untilnowhasstillnotbeenabletogetridofthedifficultposition.

ⅢIs“thesquareagreement”suitedtoresolvetheconflictofRenminbivalue

Theexperienceof"thesquareagreement"toldus:

Renminbirevaluation,althoughintheshort-termmayalleviatethiskindofunbalanceofworldeconomy,butinlongtermitwouldnotonlyaffectthedevelopmentofChineseeconomy,butalsowouldbringseriousconsequencetothedevelopmentoftheworldeconomy.Thereforewebelieved,“thesquareagreement”certainlydoesnotsuitthesolutionofRenminbivalueconflict.

1.RenminbirevaluationisunfavorabletothedevelopmentofChineseeconomy

RenminbirevaluationmainlyhasfollowingadverseeffecttotheChinesedomesticeconomy:

Firstly,itwillharmChinesesuperiorityindustry,suppressincreaseofexportation,anddirectlyaffectlong-termstablegrowthofChineseeconomy.Oppositetodevelopedcountries,China’stradepatternthatdominatedbymanufacturingindustryisextremelyeasilyinfluencedbythechangeofexchangeratelevel.AfterRenminbirevaluation,thepriceofexportcommoditieswillrise,whichwillweakentheinternationalcompetitionstrengthofexportationenterpriseproduct,thuswillcausedamagetotheinternationalpricecompetitionstrengthofmassiveChineselabor-intensiveformsproducts.Moreover,theimportpricefallscausedbyRenminbirevaluationcouldleadtodeflation,especiallyundertheadverseconditionthatfinancialdeficitexpands,themonetarypolicyspaceislimited,andtherealestatebubblestartstoappear,Renminbirevaluationwillcertainlytakeadverseeffecttothelong-termstablegrowthofChineseeconomy.

Secondly,itwillincreaseemploymentpressure,leadtosocietyterbulence.Intheperiodofeconomyreforming,theproblemofemploymentisamajorissuewhichrelatestothestabilityofeconomyandpolitics.BecauseatpresentinChinaitismainlytheexportationandtheforeigncapitalenterprisewhoprovidenewemploymentopportunity,Renminbirevaluationwillattackorsuppressexportation,anddeteriorateemploymentsituation.Moreover,afterRenminbirevaluation,thepriceofChineseagriculturalexportationproductwillrisebuttheimportpriceofforeignagriculturalproductwillfall,whichsurelywilllimittheexportationofChineseagriculturalproduct,simultaneouslyforeignagriculturalproductwillbeabletowellupintoChinesemarket,thisissaidwithoutdoubtwouldbeonemisfortuneafteranothertowardsthefrailChineseagriculture.Atthesametime,theincreasepressureofcityemployment,willalsoblocktheroadofcountrysidesurpluslaborforceshifttothecity,andcreateterbulenceofcountrysidesociety.

Thirdly,itisunfavorabletoattractforeigncapital.AfterRenminbirevaluation,thecostsuperiorityofChinesemanufacturingwillbeweakened,thetendencyofinternationalindustrywhichshiftstoChinawillbeblocked,andmanydomesticandforeigncapitalsevenwillevacuatefromChina.RobertMondelspeaksfrankly:

Renminbirevaluationwillcausemassivereductionsofforeigninvestment,suchChina'seconomicgrowthratewilldrop2to3percentagepoints,whichwillinfluenceChina’seconomyseriously.

2.Renminbirevaluationwillaffecttheworldeconomy

AstheeconomyandtraderelationsbetweenChinaandothercountriesgetmoreandmoreclosetoday,RenminbirevaluationisnotonlydisadvantageoustoChina’seconomydevelopment,butalsocanbringscertainnegativeinfluencetoAmerica,Japan,Asianandeventheworldeconomy.

Ononehand,RenminbirevaluationnotonlycannotbasiclyimproveAmericaandJapan’stradeandeconomycondition,onthecontraryithasthenegativeinfluencepossiblytoAmericaandJapan’seconomygrowth.BecausemostofexportproductofChinaaredailynecessities,excellentinqualityandreasonableinprice,whenineconomydepression,theycanmeetinhabitants’basicneed,raisethelivingstandard