RG1165 地震源的识别及其特性以及安全停堆地震地震动的确定 1997.docx

RG1165 地震源的识别及其特性以及安全停堆地震地震动的确定 1997.docx

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RG1165地震源的识别及其特性以及安全停堆地震地震动的确定1997

March1997

RegulatoryGuide1.165

IdentificationandCharacterizationofSeismicSourcesandDeterminationofSafeShutdownEarthquakeGroundMotion

（DraftissuedasDG-1032）

[DivisionIndex|RegulatoryGuideIndex|NRCHomePage]

PublicationInformation

A.INTRODUCTION

In10CFRPart100,"ReactorSiteCriteria,"Section100.23,"GeologicandSeismicSitingFactors,"paragraph（c）,"Geological,Seismological,andEngineeringCharacteristics,"requiresthatthegeological,seismological,andengineeringcharacteristicsofasiteanditsenvironsbeinvestigatedinsufficientscopeanddetailtopermitanadequateevaluationoftheproposedsite,toprovidesufficientinformationtosupportevaluationsperformedtoarriveatestimatesoftheSafeShutdownEarthquakeGroundMotion（SSE）,andtopermitadequateengineeringsolutionstoactualorpotentialgeologicandseismiceffectsattheproposedsite.Dataonthevibratorygroundmotion,tectonicsurfacedeformation,nontectonicdeformation,earthquakerecurrencerates,faultgeometryandsliprates,sitefoundationmaterial,andseismicallyinducedfloods,waterwaves,andothersitingfactorswillbeobtainedbyreviewingpertinentliteratureandcarryingoutfieldinvestigations.

In10CFR100.23,paragraph（d）,"GeologicandSeismicSitingFactors,"requiresthatthegeologicandseismicsitingfactorsconsideredfordesignincludeadeterminationoftheSSEforthesite,thepotentialforsurfacetectonicandnontectonicdeformations,thedesignbasesforseismicallyinducedfloodsandwaterwaves,andotherdesignconditions.

In10CFR100.23,paragraph（d）

（1）,"DeterminationoftheSafeShutdownEarthquakeGroundMotion,"requiresthatuncertaintyinherentinestimatesoftheSSEbeaddressedthroughanappropriateanalysis,suchasaprobabilisticseismichazardanalysisorsuitablesensitivityanalyses.

ThisguidehasbeendevelopedtoprovidegeneralguidanceonproceduresacceptabletotheNRCstafffor

（1）conductinggeological,geophysical,seismological,andgeotechnicalinvestigations,

（2）identifyingandcharacterizingseismicsources,（3）conductingprobabilisticseismichazardanalyses,and（4）determiningtheSSEforsatisfyingtherequirementsof10CFR100.23.

Thisguidecontainsseveralappendicesthataddresstheobjectivesstatedabove.AppendixAcontainsalistofdefinitionsofpertinentterms.AppendixBdescribestheprocedureusedtodeterminethereferenceprobabilityfortheSSEexceedancelevelthatisacceptabletothestaff.AppendixCdiscussesthedevelopmentofaseismichazardinformationbaseandthedeterminationoftheprobabilisticgroundmotionlevelandcontrollingearthquakes.AppendixDdiscussessite-specificgeological,seismological,andgeophysicalinvestigations.AppendixEdescribesamethodtoconfirmtheadequacyofexistingseismicsourcesandsourceparametersasthebasisfordeterminingtheSSEforasite.AppendixFdescribesprocedurestodeterminetheSSE.

Theinformationcollectionscontainedinthisregulatoryguidearecoveredbytherequirementsof10CFRPart50,whichwereapprovedbytheOfficeofManagementandBudget,approvalnumber3150-0011.TheNRCmaynotconductorsponsor,andapersonisnotrequiredtorespondto,acollectionofinformationunlessitdisplaysacurrentlyvalidOMBcontrolnumber.

B.DISCUSSION

BACKGROUND

Aprobabilisticseismichazardanalysis（PSHA）hasbeenidentifiedin10CFR100.23asameanstodeterminetheSSEandaccountforuncertaintiesintheseismologicalandgeologicalevaluations.Therulefurtherrecognizesthatthenatureofuncertaintyandtheappropriateapproachtoaccountforitdependonthetectonicregimeandparameterssuchastheknowledgeofseismicsources,theexistenceofhistoricalandrecordeddata,andthelevelofunderstandingofthetectonics.Therefore,methodsotherthanprobabilisticmethodssuchassensitivityanalysesmaybeadequateforsomesitestoaccountforuncertainties.

AppendixA,"SeismicandGeologicSitingCriteriaforNuclearPowerPlants,"to10CFRPart100isprimarilybasedonadeterministicmethodology.PastlicensingexperienceinapplyingAppendixAhasdemonstratedtheneedtoformulateproceduresthatquantitativelyincorporateuncertainty（includingalternativescientificinterpretations）intheevaluationofseismichazards.Asingledeterministicrepresentationofseismicsourcesandgroundmotionsatasitemaynotexplicitlyprovideaquantitativerepresentationoftheuncertaintiesingeological,seismological,andgeophysicaldataandalternativescientificinterpretations.

Probabilisticproceduresweredevelopedduringthepast10to15yearsspecificallyfornuclearpowerplantseismichazardassessmentsintheCentralandEasternUnitedStates（CEUS）（theareaeastoftheRockyMountains）,alsoreferredtoastheStableContinentRegion（SCR）.TheseproceduresprovideastructuredapproachfordecisionmakingwithrespecttotheSSEwhenperformedtogetherwithsite-specificinvestigations.APSHAprovidesaframeworktoaddresstheuncertaintiesassociatedwiththeidentificationandcharacterizationofseismicsourcesbyincorporatingmultipleinterpretationsofseismologicalparameters.APSHAalsoprovidesanevaluationofthelikelihoodofSSErecurrenceduringthedesignlifetimeofagivenfacility,giventherecurrenceintervalandrecurrencepatternofearthquakesinpertinentseismicsources.Withintheframeworkofaprobabilisticanalysis,uncertaintiesinthecharacterizationofseismicsourcesandgroundmotionsareidentifiedandincorporatedintheprocedureateachstepoftheprocessforestimatingtheSSE.Theroleofgeological,seismological,andgeophysicalinvestigationsistodevelopgeosciencesinformationaboutthesiteforuseinthedetaileddesignanalysisofthefacility,aswellastoensurethattheseismichazardanalysisisbasedonup-to-dateinformation.

Experienceinperformingseismichazardevaluationsinactiveplate-marginregionsintheWesternUnitedStates（forexample,theSanGregorio-HosgrifaultzoneandtheCascadiaSubductionZone）hasalsoidentifieduncertaintiesassociatedwiththecharacterizationofseismicsources（Refs.1-3）.Sourcesofuncertaintyincludefaultgeometry,rupturesegmentation,ruptureextent,seismic-activityrate,groundmotion,andearthquakeoccurrencemodeling.AsisthecaseforsitesintheCEUS,alternativehypothesesandparametersmustbeconsideredtoaccountfortheseuncertainties.

UncertaintiesassociatedwiththeidentificationandcharacterizationofseismicsourcesintectonicenvironmentsinboththeCEUSandtheWesternUnitedStatesshouldbeevaluated.Therefore,thesamebasicapproachcanbeappliedtodeterminetheSSE.

APPROACH

ThegeneralprocesstodeterminetheSSEatasiteincludes:

1.Site-andregion-specificgeological,seismological,geophysical,andgeotechnicalinvestigationsand

2.Aprobabilisticseismichazardassessment.

CENTRALANDEASTERNUNITEDSTATES

TheCEUSisconsideredtobethatpartoftheUnitedStateseastoftheRockyMountainfront,oreastofLongitude105West（Refs.4,5）.TodeterminetheSSEintheCEUS,anacceptedPSHAmethodologywitharangeofcrediblealternativeinputinterpretationsshouldbeused.ForsitesintheCEUS,theseismichazardmethods,thedatadeveloped,andseismicsourcesidentifiedbyLawrenceLivermoreNationalLaboratory（LLNL）（Refs.4-6）andtheElectricPowerResearchInstitute（EPRI）（Ref.7）havebeenreviewedandacceptedbythestaff.TheLLNLandEPRIstudiesdevelopeddatabasesandscientificinterpretationsofavailableinformationanddeterminedseismicsourcesandsourcecharacterizationsfortheCEUS（e.g.,earthquakeoccurrencerates,estimatesofmaximummagnitude）.

IntheCEUS,characterizationofseismicsourcesismoreproblematicthanintheactiveplate-marginregionbecausethereisgenerallynoclearassociationbetweenseismicityandknowntectonicstructuresornear-surfacegeology.Ingeneral,theobservedgeologicstructuresweregeneratedinresponsetotectonicforcesthatnolongerexistandhavelittleornocorrelationwithcurrenttectonicforces.Therefore,itisimportanttoaccountforthisuncertaintybytheuseofmultiplealternativemodels.

TheidentificationofseismicsourcesandreasonablealternativesintheCEUSconsidershypothesespresentlyadvocatedfortheoccurrenceofearthquakesintheCEUS（forexample,thereactivationoffavorablyorientedzonesofweaknessorthelocalamplificationandreleaseofstressesconcentratedaroundageologicstructure）.IntectonicallyactiveareasoftheCEUS,suchastheNewMadridSeismicZone,wheregeological,seismological,andgeophysicalevidencesuggestthenatureofthesourcesthatgeneratetheearthquakes,itmaybemoreappropriatetoevaluatethoseseismicsourcesbyusingproceduressimilartothosenormallyappliedintheWesternUnitedStates.

WESTERNUNITEDSTATES

TheWesternUnitedStatesisconsideredtobethatpartoftheUnitedStatesthatlieswestoftheRockyMountainfront,orwestofapproximately105WestLongitude.FortheWesternUnitedStates,aninformationbaseofearthsciencedataandscientificinterpretationsofseismicsourcesandsourcecharacterizations（e.g.,geometry,seismicityparameters）comparabletotheCEUSasdocumentedintheLLNLandEPRIstudies（Refs.4-7）doesnotexist.Forthisregion,specificinterpretationsonasite-by-sitebasisshouldbeapplied（Ref.1）.

Theactiveplate-marginregionincludes,forexample,coastalCalifornia,Oregon,Washington,andAlaska.Fortheactiveplate-marginregion,whereearthquakescanoftenbecorrelatedwithknowntectonicstructures,thosestructuresshouldbeassessedforthei