汇率问题外文翻译适用于毕业论文外文翻译及中英文对照.docx

汇率问题外文翻译适用于毕业论文外文翻译及中英文对照.docx

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汇率问题外文翻译适用于毕业论文外文翻译及中英文对照

China'sexchangeratepolicytotheevaluation

Abstract:

thisarticlefromthefouraspectsofRMBexchangeratepolicy,thatinthepastfiveyears,China'stradeimbalancesandexchangeratesystemisgettingworseandworse,nosignofimprovement;Theexistinginternationalorganizationforitsmembersthoughexchangeratepoliciesareclearlydefined,buthavenoenforcement;ThecurrentChineseexchangeratepolicy,nomattertoChina,theUnitedStates,oranyothercountryisbad;ForChina'sexchangeratepolicy,atpresenttherearegenerallyanerror,whichgreatly,rapidappreciationoftheRMBnotfeasible,notsuitablefor;ChinashouldimmediatelybeRMBexchangeratefromthecurrentleveltoriseby10-15percent.

I.introductionandpreview

ThankyouMr.ChairmangavemetheopportunitytospeaktomeChineseexchangeratepolicy'sviews.Firstofall,inthepastfiveyears,China'sexchangeratepolicyreformintheslowprogress;Secondly,I'dliketosaywhyChina'sexchangeratereformstatementtotheChineseeconomywillslowprogress,theAmericaneconomy,internationalmonetarysystem,andtheglobaltradingsystemhaveanimportantimpacton;Again,ImainlyexpoundstherelevantChineseexchangeratereformisslowexcuseandcan'tconvincingalibiandreasons;Fourth,aboutChina'sexchange-ratepolicyofseveralerroneouszone.Atlast,IinChinainthenextonetotwoyears,inpromotingexchangeratereformcanandshouldtakesomeaction,Iwilltakethisafewproblemsinitiates.

First,inthepastfiveyears,China'stradeimbalancesandexchangeratesystemisgettingworseandworse,nosignofimprovement.

In2006,China'scurrent-accountsurplussoared（soar）to9%ofGDP,atpresenttheRMBagainstChina'stradepartnersofthemeanvalueatleast30%undervaluedcurrency;Againstthedollar,isatleast40%undervalued.FromJune2005tonow,up6.5%againstthedollar,butrelativelyrevaluationoftheRMBagainstthedollarwasnotenoughtosuspend（halt）China'scompetitivepowerintheinternationalmarketofcumulativerises,alsodidnotreduceChina'stradesurplus.

Second,theexistinginternationalorganizationforitsmembersthoughexchangeratepoliciesareclearlydefined,butarenotenforced.

FirstlookattheChinesegovernment,althoughChinainthepastfouryearshavebeenengagedinalotof,singledirectionoftheforeignexchangemarketintervention,theChineseauthoritiesarestilldeniedcurrencymanipulation.SecondlookattheTreasury,althoughalotofevidenceshowingChinahandlethetruthintheforeignexchangemarket,buttheTreasurystillrefusedtoChinadefinedas"currencymanipulator".Finallyseetheinternationalmonetaryfund,althoughtheIMFisoneoftheoriginalintentionwasestablishedtopromotethedevelopmentofallcountriesexchangeratepolicy,butnowitlooks,theIMF'sseniorofficialshavealsowouldnotforadedicatedtotheIMFconstructionsupervisionandrestraintworldinternationalcoordinatingmechanismofexchangeratepolicy.

Thethird,andtheslownessoftheprogressofChina'sexchangeratepolicyreform,nomattertoChina,theUnitedStates,oranyothercountryisunfavorable.

InChina'scase,theRMBisundervaluedcurrencymanipulationandseriousfactbehaviorofChinatotheforeigntradefromthebalanceandconsumptionSpill-overeconomicgrowthtarget,alsoontheChina'smonetarypolicyindependence,alsointerferewiththereformoftheChinesebankingsystem,andimprovetheinternationalsocietytoChinaininternationalcurrencyandtradesysteminsidebecomea"responsiblestakeholder"indoubt.ForAmerica,theRMBisthemodestrisenotpromoteAsiathepositivedevelopmentofexchangeratesystemandtheroleoftheU.S.tradedeficitandnosoandbeabletoimproveandwillnotreducethedollarcrisishappenedU.S.economyandtheriskofahardlanding.Ifthissituationcontinues,emergingmarketcountriesmayfollowChinainsuccession,thatwillgivetheglobalcurrencysystembringstheseriousinfluence,andevencanbecausedbytheU.S.,Europe,Japanandothercountriesofthebacklash.

Fourth,theChineseexchangeratepolicy,thecurrentprevalenceofamisunderstanding,thattheRMBissubstantiallyrapidappreciationisnotfeasible,isnotsuitable.

Thisunderstandingisincorrect.LargeappreciationoftheRMBwillnotgivetheeconomicdevelopment,employmentandsocialstabilityinChinahavedevastatingeffects.TakebolderactiononRMBexchangerateinChina'sbankingsystemisnotbroken,alsothereisnoneedtoputinfurtherreformsofthefinancialsystem.IftheUnitedStatesTreasurytoChinaacurrencymanipulator,whichwillbeconducivetoChina'sexchangeratesystemreform.

Fifth,Chinashouldimmediatelyfromthecurrentlevel,theRMBexchangerateappreciatedby10-15percent.

InviewoftheexchangerateoftheRMBlongunderestimated,ittheadverseeffectisdifficulttothroughthemodestriseagaintoeliminate.OnlytheRMBexchangeraterisesharplytocompletelydisposable,solvetheproblem.AsmallrevaluationoftheRMBagainstthedollar（suchasrising5%ayear）,toAmerica,scanteffect,becausetheunitedhimselfinthecuttradedeficitwillbedifficult.Inordertoimprovethesocialstability,Chinainpromotingmoreboldexchangeratereform（Bolderexchangerateaction）atthesametime,shouldbeincreasedgovernmentspending,adjustexpendituredirection,soastopromotetheconstructionofsocialsecuritynetwork,reducetheprecautionarysavingnothigh.TheTreasuryshouldexplaintotheChinesegovernment,andfromnowontheTreasurywillhavebeentoinvestigateChina'scurrentaccountbalance,thechangeofactualandeffectiveexchangeratechangeseverymonthandtheChinesegovernmentinterveningintheforeignexchangemarketsituation,assessexternaladjustmentandreformofChina'sexchangerateeffect.TheTreasuryshouldtheurgentrequirementofChina'sexchangerateissuesinMay2007asachina-usstrategiceconomicdialogueontheagendatopressurethegovernmenttoChina,untilachievedeffectsofar.IftheexchangerateoftheRMBwasnotyetincrease,intheTreasuryreporttocongressinthematerial,itshouldbedefinedasChinacurrencymanipulator.Finally,theinternationalmonetaryfundwasestablishedtopromoteglobalexchangerateisoneofthedevelopmentofthesystem,buttheIMFtheproblemisitnotonlytotheexchangeratesystemchangeprovideguidelines,moreshouldurgescountriestoexchangeratesystemtoreform,thisisallcountriespromoteexchangeratesystemfavorabledevelopmentofeffectiveway.

II.fourindicators

LookingbackonthepastfiveyearsBeijingandWashingtonissuedannouncement,youmightthinkthatChinaismovingtowardreduceexternaleconomicimbalance,adjusttheexchangeratepolicydirection.HereIusefourindexrethinkingaboutthequestion,willgetadifferentconclusion.

Thefirstindicator:

China'scurrent-accountsurplus：

Inthepastfiveyears,China'scurrentaccountsurplushasbeengrowing,and1%ofGDPin2001,nearly9percentofGDPin2006.CalculatedinU.S.dollars,Chinaisthelargestcountryintheworldonatradesurplus;thecurrentaccountbalanceaccountedfortheproportionofeconomiesofscaletomeasureChina'stradesurplusismoreseriousthantheU.S.tradedeficit.Comparedwiththesameperiodin2006,thefirsttwomonthsof2007,China'scurrentaccountbalanceincreasedby225%.Visible,theexternalequilibriumoftheChineseeconomyisevenworse.

Thesecondindicator:

China'sactualeffectiveexchangerate：

Comparedwiththenominalexchangerate,actualandeffectiveexchangerateismeasuredeconomiccompetitivenessofChina'smoreappropriateindex.Inthepastfive,sixyears,againstthedollar'sactualandeffectiveexchangerateincreased2%.SomepeoplethinkthattheRMBagainsttheUSdollarwas6.5%,fromRMB1dollarto8.28to1dollarto7.73RMB（March22,2007）,theeffectisremarkable.Infact,theRMBisstillundervalued,RMBagainsttheChinesetradepartnerofthemeanvalueatleast30%undervaluedcurrency;againstthedollar,isatleast40%undervalued.Andrelativeappreciationagainstthedollardoesnothelptoreducetradesurplus.

Thethirdindicator:

theRMBexchangerateofthemarketeconomy：

InJune2005,theChinesegovernmentannouncedontheRMBexchangeratesystemtoreform,realizetheexchangerateofthemarketeconomy.ButinfacttheRMBexchangerateandnotoutofthemarketeconomy.Inordertomaintainthecurrencyrelativestability,theChinesegovernmenthasbeenmanipulatingforeignexchangemarket,everymonthamountofinterventionlastyearto$20billion.ThisandannouncedthattheRMBexchangeratereformofbeforethefirsthalfyearof2005levelisconsistent.Inthepastthreeyears,China'sforeignexchangemarketinterventionlevelof10%ofGDP.Moreseriously,alotofinterventionintheforeignexchangemarketatthesametime,thecentralbankhadalotof"Write-off"operation,thiskindofbehaviorcirculationatthesametime（thedomesticmoneysupplyincreased,inflationrategrowth）,foreignexchangereserveswillcontinuetorise,otherwise,eveniftheRMBnominalexchangerateunchanged,thecompetitivenessofChinacanseriouslyreduce.Infact,theRMBexchangerateisstillcontrolledprospectivefixedrate.

Thefourthindicator:

AsamemberoftheIMF,tofulfillthecommitmentoftheexchangeratepolicy：

AsoneoftheIMFmembercountries,Chinashouldfulfillitscommitmenttoreformitsexchangeratepolicy.AmemberoftheIMFhavepromisednotto"currencymanipulation",theChinesegovernmentalsoinsistedthatnomanipulationoftheforeignex