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法学毕业论文法学外文翻译中英文对照
英文原文：
HｏwＲeal ＩsChｉna’sRealEstateBubｂleAnd Ｗhaｔ Shｏｕld Be Done ａｂｏut Ｉt
ThinｋU.S.houｓｉｎgpriceｓhavｅｇonebeｒserk？
ＴryｔhoｓeinＳｈanｇhai aｎdＢeijing，wherethecostoｆｈoｍeｓhas ｂeeｎrｉsinganｅstｉmaｔｅd 25％ ａnnually inｒecentyeaｒs。
Thａｔ’ｓｔwｉcetｈｅjｕmｐinｔｈemediansalepｒicｅｏf ｅxistiｎgＵ。
S.homesoｖertｈe pａｓtｙear, ａndasｉｇnｔhａｔ Ｃhｉna’ｓrealｅｓtatemａrｋetiｓinｔｈｅmｉdstoｆｗｈａtｓomeｏbsｅrveｒsvｉewasａpotentiallyexｐlosiｖeｂubblｅ.
Theｂubｂleisｒoｏtediｎ suｃhfａctｏrs ａｓChｉｎa'sｓtrongecｏnomic growｔhｓincｅ1990andｉnｖestorｂetsｔhatCｈｉｎa’scurreｎcy，theyuaｎ，willｂerevalｕeduｐwarｄintｈenearｆｕtｕre.Buｔsuch spｅculaｔionisheｌｐingpushthe ｐｒicｅofhomes beyondtｈｅｒｅachofmiｄdｌe ｃlaｓsｃiｔizenｓinkeyＣhinｅsｅciｔｉes andraｉｓinｇtheprospectoｆａｓudｄen marｋet collapｓｅ thaｔcouldｔhrｅａtentｈｅｃountrｙ'sshａkybankｉｎg seｃtoraｎdwiｐeout tｈｅｌife ｓaｖｉｎｇsofmanｙｆａmilieｓ。
Someseethe ｉnｃreａsiｎgiｎvｏｌvementoｆ U。
S。
ｉnｖestorsinＣhina —-iｎｃludingthｅ recentｍｏｖe ｂy BaｎkofＡmerica tｏbuｙａ9％ stakｅｉnCｈinａＣoｎstructｉoｎＢanｋ—－asahoｐｅｆulｄevｅloｐment ｗheｎitcomes ｔocalmｉng thecoｕｎtｒy’sreａl esｔａｔescene。
Anｄ ｇｉventheprospｅｃtｏf ｓoｃiａｌunresｔ stemminｇfｒoｍｅitherconｔｉnuｅdpriceｈｉkes oｒa toｏ—fａstpriｃｅdecliｎｅ,theＣhineseｇovｅrnmentｈaｓtａｋen aｃtiｏntｏｃoｏl ｄｏｗｎtｈemaｒket.
ＢutBeｉjing’ｓ effortssofar maｙｎoｔ be enoughtoreinｉｎ ｔherｉsingreａｌｅｓｔａtｅ ｐricｅｓ, saysＷhartｏnmarketｉngprofessoｒJohnZｈanｇ.Hewarnsthatthegovernmentｍust ｂecarefｕl inｗhateｖeｒmovesitmakｅsneｘｔ。
“Ｍaｎagｉｎgthｅ processｏfburstinｇthｅbｕbbｌe iｓｒeallyｓometｈingdelicａｔe,”heｓays.
ﻫ IncｏnsistｅntData
Chｉｎa’s ｒｅaｌeｓtate marｋetiｓ relaｔivelynｅw。
Afteryears oｆpropertｙbeinｇuｎder ｔhestricｔ cｏntrｏloftｈecｏmmｕniｓtｇoｖernｍent,Chinaｐhasedｏutfrｅe governmｅnt—pｒovidedｈousｅsinthｅeａｒly１990s。
Butevｅnnow,thereisａlegacyoftｈｅcｏmmuｎiｓtsystem。
Thｅstａte teｃhniｃaｌｌyｏwnsｔｈe counｔｒｙ’ｓlａnd：
Indｉvｉduａｌsessentｉallybuyrightstｏ buｉldontopoftheｌandoｒown structｕres alreadyｔherｅ.
Asｗｉtｈoｔheｒｍeasuｒｅsｏｆ tｈeChｉｎｅseeconoｍy,it’ｓｈardtogeｔa ｐｒeciｓe gaugｅｏn hoｗhousｉｎgｐriceshaveｂｅenchangｉngiｎｔｈeｃｏuntrｙ．Ｌａst year，thecｏuｎtry’ｓａverａgeｈousingprｉcerosｅby14．4%,accｏｒdinｇto aｓtoryｉnJunｅbyoｆficialCｈｉｎeｓｅnews agｅｎcｙXｉnhｕacｉtinｇ thecｏｕntry'sNａtｉoｎalＢurｅauof Stａtｉstics. TｈｅstｏryａｌｓoｓaidｔｈａtBeijing'sｈousiｎg prｉceleｖeｌhadbｅenｄｒoｐpiｎg。
Ｂutaｎofｆiciａlwｉtｈ ｔhｅ staｔiｓtｉｃsｂureａuackｎｏｗｌedｇｅdinｔhｅstorytｈａtｔhenｕｍbｅrs“ｄo not fulｌyreprｅsenttｈe geneｒａlreaｌestａteｓituation”ａnd ｔhatｓｏｍegoveｒnｍｅntfigures are incｏnsｉstent。
Giventhｅlackoｆ soｌidｄaｔa，it ｍayｂｅ prematuretodｅfｉｎｅＣhina＇s housｉng ｍarkeｔasabuｂbｌｅ,notesWharｔonrｅal esｔaｔepｒｏfessorGraceWong。
Woｎｇ，whｏhasｗritten about araｐidrun—upｉnＨong Ｋong houｓinｇpricｅsinthelatｅ199０s，ｓａysaｂubbｌｅ istypiｃally defineｄ aｓpriceｓatlevelshigｈerthanwhatｅｃoｎomｉcbaｓiｃｓjuｓｔifｙ.Sｐｅcｕlaｔｉon--wｈenbuyersaｒｅpｕrcｈaｓiｎｇhomｅｓpriｍarｉｌyｂｅcausetheyexpectthepricewiｌlincrease-—ｃancauseabubｂle,butｐrｉcｅhikesalso caｎａrisebeｃauseoffacｔorsｓuｃhascoｎstｒuctｉｏn costiｎcreａsesorａnundeｒsｕpｐｌyｏfhomes。
“Youwｏｕlｄn’ｔbeｓｏ ｗｏrried ｉfｔhehousiｎｇ pricesaremｏviｎg uｐbｅｃauseoffuｎdameｎｔａlｓlikethaｔ，”sｈenoteｓ.
UsｈａHaley,ｐrofessoroｆintｅrｎatioｎal ｂuｓｉnesｓ aｔtｈｅUnｉversｉty oｆNｅw Ｈaｖen’sＳcｈｏolofBusiness， ａlsosuggests thaｔ ｔalkａbｏutanationwｉdｅｂubble canoverstａtｅtheｃａse。
Shｅesｔimatestｈaｔhｏusｉng pｒices forCｈinaoｖｅｒaｌｌhａvｅｂeeｎriｓing 1０%aｎnｕallｙinｒeｃeｎｔyears.Thａtｌevelmakesｔhecountry’sreaｌｅstate prｉcｅgrowthｓｌｏwer tｈaninmanyoｔhｅｒ ｃｏｕntriesａroｕndthｅworld,inｃludinｇ tｈe Unｉted Staｔeｓ。
ＢutＨaleｙ， wｈorecentｌywrotｅabooｋaboutｂusiｎessinＣhinatiｔled, ＴheChinｅsｅＴａo ｏｆBusinｅss，ｓaystheｍaｊoｒｃｉｔｉｅs ｏｆSｈanghaｉand Bｅiｊinｇarespeｃialcａses，wｉthaｎnｕａlreａleｓtateａｐprｅciatiｏnrates ｃloserto25-26%ｉn tｈepａstfｅwyears,orrougｈly＄７84persquaremｅteｒ ｉnShangｈaｉ.TheｐricｅsinBeijingareｌoｗer,ｂutnot ｂy mｕｃh。
Evｅntｈeｓepriceｓdon’tｔellthewholesｔｏry。
Oneｓouｒcefamｉｌiarwｉth thｅShanｇhaihousiｎg mａｒkｅtｓaｙｓunfｉｎisheｄ ｃondominiuｍ “ｓhellｓ”in newSｈanghaihiｇh—ｒise buiｌdings areｂeingmarketed atapｒiceｏfａbout$２,０00 peｒsｑｕaremetｅｒ.ﻫ Aｍongthe cａｕsｅsof thｅ run-uｐinChinesｅｈome ｐｒｉces， Haleynotｅs， ｉsｇｏveｒnｍｅｎｔ cｏｒｒuption.Locaｌoffｉcｉａlsｃan eｎgａｇe inpriｃe ｇouging ｔｏｅnrich ｔheｍsｅlｖesｉndiｖiduａlly orcoｎspireto dｒｉveuｐprices onｐroｐeｒty saｌes thatpadｇoｖerｎmｅnt coffeｒs。
AnotheｒfaｃtorisChiｎａ’s overａllecｏnomiｃexpansｉon.China's economygrew atanaｖeragｅｒaｔｅｏf10％peryeaｒ dｕrｉｎgｔhｅpｅriodbetween1990and20０４，ｔｈｅhighesｔgｒｏwthrａteinｔhe worｌd，acｃoｒdｉngtothｅU。
Ｓ。
staｔeｄepａrtment。
Ｃｈinａ’sｔoｔaltraｄeiｎ ２004suｒｐａssed$1。
1trｉｌlion, mａkｉｎgitthｅ wｏrlｄ’stｈirｄ—largｅｓttradingnatｉoｎａｆtｅｒtheU.S。
andGermany.
WithCｈiｎａｂeｃomｉnｇ moｒｅofahuｂinｔheglｏｂａｌ eｃonｏmy，it ｓtａnｄstorｅasonｔherｅｗoｕldbe ｇrｅater ｄｅmandforhousingdeｓiｇｎeｄfｏrforeigncｏrpoｒaｔeexｅcｕtiveｓ aｎdotherex—ｐａｔriotｓ。
Thｉsincreaｓｅ iｎdｅmａnd haslｅdtoｈiｇｈerhousingｐriｃes，aｓnｏteｄ byKennethＡboussie， whotｒａvｅleｄ ｔoChｉnａ in2003 ｔoｓtudy ｔｈｅreａlestａtｅ marketｗhｉle astuｄentat theMｃComｂsＳcｈoolofBusinessat ｔheＵｎiveｒsityｏfTｅｘas aｔAustｉn。
“Ｔｈeｒeｗａsｎoqｕestｉon therｅｗａｓaｂｕbbｌefor tｈaｔｈigh-eｎｄhouｓｉng，＂sayｓAbｏusｓie,whｏｎｏwｗoｒksatAuｓtｉn—ｂased Cｙprｅss RealEｓｔate Advisors.ﻫ StillanotheｒcauseforChina’s realｅstatｅbｏoｍｉsｗiｄeｓpreaｄａnticiｐationthatCｈinａｗｉｌlrｅvalue tｈe ｙuansoon.Chｉna’ｓ governｍeｎthas been ｕnderinｃreａsingpｒessurefｒoｍtheU。
S.toｄｉsmａnｔlethe yuan＇ｓcurｒentpeg tｏ tｈｅdollａｒandａllowit ｔoｉncｒｅaseｉn vａｌue。
CritiｃsarｇｕeChｉna’sｃurｒenｃｙ ｉsundｅrvaluedbyrｏuｇｈly 25％,mａkingiｔseｘpoｒｔsａrtｉfｉcialｌycｈeapｅraｎd iｍｐortｓintｏｔhe countrymｏrｅexpｅnsive.
Ｓhouldtheyuａniｎcreaｓｅ in vaｌｕe,iｎvesｔmenｔsinＣhinｅseaｓｓetssuch as reaｌ estatｅcanbe exｐectedｔoriseaswell,saysＷhａｒton’sＺhang.“Paｒｔ ｏfthesｐｅｃｕlatioｎcomｅsfromthe exｐｅctatｉｏnｏｆthe ａpｐreｃiatioｎof thecuｒrenｃy。
”Soｍe ｏfｔhoｓe reaｌestaｔebeｔsｂaｓedoｎ thｅyuan’sreｖaｌuaｔionareforｅignｉnnature,Zｈangsuggests,ａdding,hｏｗever,ｔhａｔChinｅsecitｉｚens alsohaｖｅpｏuｒｅdmonｅyinto reａｌesｔatｅｈoｌdｉngs,ｅｓpeciａｌlyaｆtｅrtｈediｓapｐoｉntｉngperformaｎｃeofCｈineseｓｔocksafewyeａrｓ aｇo.
ﻫ ＴheDａｎｇersoｆPanicｋedSellinｇ
Ａs wiｔhoｔher econoｍicｂubｂlesthroｕｇhoｕthistory-— such as Holｌanｄ’stulipcrazｅin tｈe１600ｓandthｅＩｎteｒneｔ stｏckfrenzyｅａｒliｅｒ ｔhisdeｃａde-- ｔhere’sadangerthａｔＣｈｉnａ’s realｅstaｔｅ ｐriceｓwilｌ ｃｏllａpｓeqｕicｋlｙ。
That’s the flipsideoftｈeiｎｆlateｄpriｃｅsasｓｏｃiaｔed with abuｂble,Zhangexｐlａiｎs.Aｍｉdpanickeｄ selling, buyｅｒs may ｓit on theｓideliｎeｓ untilpricesｃraterｔｏｕnreaｓonablyｌｏwvａlues.“Ｗheｎthepriceis oｎ thewａy ｄown，”probｌeｍｓcanarｉse ｔｈａｔ“cｏｕlｄdｅｓtｒoyｔｈeｗｈolｅrealestatｅmarket，”Zｈanｇｓays。
ＡcｃordinｇtｏHaｌｅy,arapid lossｏfrｅａlestａteｖａｌuｅｓwould ｈａｒｍＣｈiｎa’sｍajorbankｓ。
Household lｏans，iｎclｕｄing ｈoｍeloans,makeupjuｓt10to1５%of loanｓｉnChｉnａ， ｂｕｔmoretｈanhaｌfofCｈinese ｌeｎdingiｓcoｌlaterａｌｉzｅdｗithprivaｔepｒopｅrｔy,she sａyｓ。
ﻫ Therun—ｕpiｎpｒopｅｒtypriｃｅshashadpoｓiｔiveｅfｆects，poinｔsoutHarrisｏnDｕan,ａＣhｉｎesｅｎａtive whｏａttｅndｅdtheMcCoｍbsschｏoland aｃcoｍpaniｅdAboussieoｎｈiｓ first-haｎｄsｔudｙ ofＣhiｎa’s realestatｅmａｒｋｅｔ.Construｃｔｉonａｎdsteelaｒe ａmong ｔhｅindｕstriｅsｉｎＣhｉnａthａthave benｅfitｅdｆrｏmthｅbooｍ。
“Ｏvertｈｅlasｔ fiveｙeaｒs， reａｌestatehasｂeenarｅallyｉmportａnｔgrowthｅngineｉnChｉna,”ｈe notes,addingｔhaｔ thｏseＣhiｎeseｗhoｂouｇｈthomes thrｅeoｒ fourｙearsagohａｖｅgaｉnｅdagｒeatdｅａlofweaｌｔh,atleaｓtｏnpaper。
Butthateqｕｉｔy apprecｉaｔｉoｎmaynｏt meanmucｈforfamiｌieｓtｈaｔneedtｏｌiｖeintheirｈoｍes ｅvenａs the skｙrockeｔingpricesｉnplaceｓｌike Shａnghaiare vｅryｄisappointingｔo manyciｔyresidｅnts。
“TｈeShaｎghaimｉddｌｅ cｌasscannolongeｒaffordtobuy ａｎ apａrtment foｒｔｈemsｅlｖes in ａconvｅnientlocaｔion，”saｙsDuan,whonowｗoｒｋsfoｒcomputergiaｎtDeｌlas ａglｏbal ｃommoｄitiesｍanａgerfoｃusedonｗirelesｓcｏｍmunicatｉoｎｓprｏducts. ＤuanlivｅｓｉntheＡuｓｔin，Texaｓ,area oｎagｕest ｗorｋer visａ,but caｎimaｇiｎerｅtｕｒｎing toChina sｏmｅｄaｙ。
And ifhedｏes, Sｈanghai－—ｎotfarfromwｈerehｅgrｅwup-—isprobaｂｌｙwheｒｅhｅwｏｕlｄｇo.Ａnｄｙｅt,aｃｃｏrding toDuan,it wouldbｅmuch haｒdeｒfｏralｏcalｍidｄle—ｃlａssｆamiｌｙtopｕrchaｓe ahome iｎSｈanghａiｔhaｎｉnAustin．
Thoseiｎdiｖidｕaｌ sｔｒuggｌescoulｄcoｎcｅiｖablytuｒnintourbanprｏtestｓ，ｅcｈoinｇ repoｒtsofa slewofotｈｅr proteｓtｓinthecｏunｔｒy withiｎｔhepaｓtyear。
Atthｅsametime, anoverniｇhｔ ｐｒｉceｃollapsecoulderase thelｉfｅ ｓavingsof manyChinese，ａnotｈerｐosｓｉｂlｅ sｏｕrceｏfunrｅｓt thａt“woｒｒies ｔhegoveｒnｍｅnｔ，”Ｚｈanｇ ｓａys。
ﻫ Againsｔthｉsbackｄｒop， ｔhｅChinｅseｇｏvernmenthasｔried toquiettheｒeａl estate bｏomwitｈaserieｓｏfmeasures，iｎｃｌuding ｈigｈｅr ｍｏｒtｇageｒatｅｓ andlargerdoｗｎ payments,accordiｎgto ａMayａrtiｃlepｕｂlisｈｅd by Xinhua。
AsofJune 1, ａ 5。
5%capitａｌ ｇaｉnstａｘｗasｄueｔｏtakeeffect on reｓiｄentialｐｒoｐeｒtysoldwｉｔhｉntwo yearsｏfpurｃhａｓe.Iｎａdｄitioｎ,Shanghaｉｉn Maｙenacteｄanew ｌawrequiringhomeownｅｒstopａyｏfftｈeirmortgaｇebeｆｏｒeｓellinｇ aｐropeｒty．Eｖenso,Zｈaｎｇtｈｉｎkｓmoreactｉｏｎ maｙbeneeded toguiｄeｈomeｐｒicestoasｏｆtlａnｄing。
“Ｉtloｏkslike theｍeasurｅs mayｎot bｅsｕfficienttoｃoolthemａrｋet。
” Ｔhe keｙ,heｓａys, ｉs modｅraｔe stepsｄesignｅｄｔo wｏrk oveｒthｅcourseｏfseｖｅｒalyeａrs。
Dｒａconianaｃtioｎaimed ａtsolvｉngthepｒoblemina merｅｙeaｒ'sｔimerｉsksｔriggeringpaniｃkedｓelling．Alsounwisｅ,ｉｎZｈang’ｓvｉew, wouldbｅahｉｋeｉｎoveralliｎteｒestratｅｓ,whiｃhｃould freｅzeｌｅnｄingfoｒnewhomeconｓｔruｃtｉoｎ ｂutalｓo ｓtiflｅｔｈe country'ｓecoｎoｍicｇｒowth。
Wｈartｏn’sWong ｗarns thatａnotheroft-diｓcusseｄtｏol ｆｏrdeflatinｇｂｕbｂｌｅscouｌdｈavｅ anegaｔiveｏ
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