WOW Case Studies.docx

WOW Case Studies.docx

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WOWCaseStudies

WOWCaseStudies

By:

RobieI.SamantaRoy

India-BangladeshWaterDispute

ICECaseNumber78

∙CASEBACKGROUND

∙ENVIRONMENTASPECT

∙CONFLICTASPECT

∙ENVIRONMENTCONFLICTOVERLAP

∙RELATEDINFORMATION

I.CASEBACKGROUND

1.Abstract

TheSouthAsiansub-continentishometoover1.3billionpeople,withclosetoonebillioninthecountryofIndiaalone.TheinclusionofneighboringPakistan,Nepal,andBangladeshaddanotherquarterbillion.Thepresenceofthisenormouspopulationhasexertedextremepressuresupontheenvironmentandwillcontinuetodosowiththecurrentandprojectedhighpopulationgrowthrates.Theencroachmentuponforestsandother（previously）sparselypopulatedareashasledtoincreaseddesertification,analarmingdecreaseinthewildlifepopulation,andsoilerosionthathasirreparablydamagedecosystems.Coupledwiththewidespreadpollutionofdevelopingindustriesandmushroomingpopulationdensitiesinurbancenters,environmentalissueshavebecomeofcriticalimportance.

2.Description

OneoftheperenniallyimportantenvironmentalissuesisthescarcityandsharingoffreshwaterresourcesbetweenIndiaandtwoofitsneighbors,BangladeshandPakistan.LargeriverssuchastheIndus,Ganges,andtheBrahmaputraarebornintheloftyheightsoftheHimalayasandareharnessedforhydroelectricpower（currentlyatlevelsfarbelowtheirmaximumpotential）beforeflowingtothevastplainsoftheDeccanandontoeithertheArabianSeatothewestortheBayofBengaltotheeast.Theproblemofwaterresourceallocationandsharing,primarilyforirrigationpurposes,hasplaguedrelationsbetweenIndiaanditsneighbors,andhasledtoatruecaseexampleofnvironmentalsecurity?

-whereenvironmentalissuesareentwinedwithnationalsecurityissues（e.g.environmentalscarcityleadstotensionsbetweennationssharingcommonresources）.

Thepurposeofthispaperistoexaminehowremotelysenseddataandrelatedanalyticaltoolscanmakeauniqueandimmediatelyusefulcontributiontothesolutionoftheseenvironmentalproblems,andhowthisdatacanbemoreapplicableandhaveadirectimpactonenvironmentalpolicymaking.Firstly,itisimportanttounderstandthebackgroundandhistoricalcontextofthesewaterconflictproblems,andtocriticallyexaminethecausesoftheenvironmentalproblemsandtheresultingenvironmentalsecurityissuestheyhavecreated.Oncetheseissueshavebeenidentifiedandtheexistinglevelofknowledgeregardingthemisdetermined,aresearchstrategytostudytheseissuesfurtherwillbeformulatedtoshedgreaterlightonaspectsthatmaynotbeclearatthispointintime.Thisstrategywillspecificallyaddresshowremotelysenseddata,amongotherdatasources,canbeusedtostudyandaddresstheproblems.Lastly,astrategytoeffectivelyapplyandusethesedataforpolicymakingdecisions,andspecificrecommendedactionswillbeproposed.Theworkinghypothesisofthispaperisthattheuseofremotesensingdatamaybeabletocontributeinsomemannertothediffusionofenvironmentallybasedconflicts.

Background

Inthissection,thebackgroundforthetwoprincipalinternationalwaterdisputesinSouthAsiaispresented.Waterconflictinthisregionpresentsaninterestingcasestudyintermsofthevariednatureoftheconflictsthatarelargelyduetothedynamicsofthepowerbalancesbetweentheactors.InthecaseofIndiaandPakistan,thepotentialforrealmilitaryconflictexists,andtheissueofnuclearcapabilitieslendsachillingnewdimensiontoarmedengagement.However,aswillbeseen,theIndo-PakistanidisputeoverthesharingoftheIndusriversystemhasnotbeenascontentiousastheIndo-Bangladeshidispute.Indeed,since1960whentheIndusWatersTreatywassignedbyIndiaandPakistan,themainissueshavebeenresolved-primarilyduetointernationalintervention.

However,theGangesriverdisputebetweenIndiaandBangladeshhascontinuedtofester,anddespitearecenttreatysignedin1996,thereisstillmuchprogressthatremainstobeaccomplished.Inthisconflict,oneparty（India）completelydominatestheother（inamilitarysense）,anditisonlythroughotherchannels,suchasthepressuresofillegalimmigrationcausedbyenvironmentaldisaster,thattheconflicthastrulymanifesteditself.DuetothelackofacomprehensivesolutionthattreatstheGangesbasinasasystemindependentofartificialnationalboundaries,aswellasthecomplexityofthesecondaryrepercussions,waterallocationissuesassociatedwiththeGangesriversystemwillbetheprimaryfocusofthispaper.

Tocontrastthetwoconflicts,itisinterestingtocomparetheminanotional"conflictspace"asdepictedinFigure1.Thetwodimensionsofthisspacearethepotentialseverityoftheconflictandtheleveloftheenvironmentalimpact.Aswillbeseen,theGangesRiverdisputehashadahigherenvironmentalimpactthantheIndusRiverdispute,butthepotentialseverityoftheconflictisnotaspotentiallyintenseasfortheIndusRiverdisputewherebothpartieshavenuclearcapabilities.

Figure1.RelativePositionsofSouthAsianWaterConflictsinaNotionalConflictSpace

TheIndusRiverDispute（Indiavs.Pakistan）TheIndusRiverisborninthehighlandsofTibet,andflowstotheArabianSeaoverthecourseofsome2,900kmthroughIndiaandPakistan.Withabasincoverageareaofover900,000km2,theIndushasaflowvolumetwicethatoftheNile,andthreetimesthatoftheTigris-Euphratesriversystem.[1]

Asfarbackasfourmillenniumago,theIndusbasinwasoneofthecradlesofcivilization,spawningtheancientcitiesofHarappaandMohenjo-daro.Agriculturewasamainformoflivelihood,andtheIndusRiverwasafertileregion.Only200yearsago,duringtheiroccupationoftheIndiansub-continent,theBritishactivelyencouragedagricultureinthisregionknownasthePunjab（whichmeans﨤andofFiveRivers?

thattodaystraddlesaportionoftheborderbetweenpresentdayIndiaandPakistan.TheBritishmotivationwastofindanoccupationforthemanyidleSikhswhohadputupstiffresistancetotheBritishinvasion.Consequently,BritishengineersbegananextensivesetofprojectstodivertthemaintributariesoftheIndusintoawebofirrigatingcanals,andthePunjabbecameafertile"breadbasket".

In1947,theBritishpartitionedtheregionbetweenIndiaandPakistan,andanagreementwassignedbetweenthetwonewlyformedcountriestomaintainwatersuppliesatthelevelofpre-independencetimes.However,disputesoverwaterallocationsoonarose,andin1948,IndiacutoffthewaterincanalsflowingtoPakistan.Negotiationsensued,butthemagnitudeofthecontroversythataffectedtheagricultureofsuchalargeregioninfluencedtheU.S.magazine,Collier's,tosponsorDavidLilienthal,ChairmanoftheTennesseeValleyAuthority,toundertakeafact-findingtourandproposesomesolutions.Lilienthal'sworkwasbroughttotheattentionofthepresidentoftheWorldBankatthattime,EugeneBlack,whoattemptedtopersuadethetworiparianstofindalastingpeacefulsolution.

Aftermanyyearsofdiscussions,theIndusWatersTreatywassignedin1960.ItwasagreedthattheamountofwateravailablefromtheInduswouldbeincreasedbyvariousengineeringworksfundedbytheWorldBank,andthesixprimaryriversoftheIndusbasinwouldbesplitevenlybetweenIndiaandPakistan（threetoeachparty）.[2]TheIndusWaterTreatyremainsineffecttoday,andislargelyintactbecausetheamountofwateravailablewasabletobeincreasedtobothpartiesbytheconstructionofvariousworksthatwerefundedbyothercountries[2].Twoothercontributingfactorswerethesimplefactthatthesplittingoftheriverbranchesmadephysicalgeographicsense,andthatthepopulationlevelsatthattimedidnotexertstrenuousdemandsonwaterresources.However,thisregionisincreasinglygrowinginpopulationtoday,anditremainstobeseenhowrobusttheTreatywillremain.Ontheotherhand,itisinterestingtonotethatthisTreatyhaswithstoodthestrainsofthemajorwarsIndiaandPakistanhavefought.

TheresolutionoftheIndusRiverdisputeremainsasagoodlessoninthataslongasresourcesdonotbecomeovertlyscarce,andthereisstrongexternalarbitration,thereishopeforenvironmentalconflicttobepeacefullyresolvedtoalargeextent.However,itistruethatremotesensingcanstillplayanimportantroleinmonitoringlongtermchangeintheIndusRiverbasin,andaidinthemanagementofwaterflowandlanduse.WeshallnowturnourfocustotheeasternboundariesofIndiawhereafesteringdisputewillbecloselyexaminedinthenextsection,andthepotentialbenefitsofremotesensingapplicationswillbemoreapparent.TheGangesRiverDispute（Indiavs.Bangladesh）

TheGangesandBrahmaputrariverbasininSouthAsiaisthelargestintheregion,encompassingover1.6millionkm2.FlowingfromtheHimalayansinNepalandTibet,bothriverscoursethroughIndia,andultimatelyjoininBangladeshwheretheydischargeintotheBayofBengal.BeforetheGangesentersBangladesh,itdividesoffasmallerriver,theBhagirathi-Hooghly,thatflowsthroughtheportofCalcutta.Four-fifthsofBangladesh,anareasmallerthanNewYorkstate,isstraddledbythisdeltasystem.ApproximatelyhalfofthecountryGDPisbasedonagriculture,andhencetheserivers?

irrigationvalueisvitaltothecountryeconomyanditsover120millioninhabitants.[1]ThetopographyofBangladesh（i.e.itssealevelelevationanddeltawetlands）anditsgeographicallocationmakeitextremelyvulnerabletonaturaldisasters.Typhoonsandmonsoonsproducemultiplefl