浅谈发展中国家经济增长模型.docx

浅谈发展中国家经济增长模型.docx

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浅谈发展中国家经济增长模型

OntheApplicationofEconomicGrowthTheoryintheDevelopingCountries

1.0Introduction

Thejudgmentofmacro-economicsituationisanevergreentopicintheeconomiccircle,fortheeconomicsituationscarcelyeverremainsanidealbalancebetweentheaggregatedemandandaggregatesupply.Forexample,thepersistentdeflationlastingfor9yearsinChinaisatopicthatattractsourattentionallthetime.WhatdoestheEconomicGrowthTheoryinclude?

AndisitapplicabletothedevelopingcountriessuchasChina?

Withregardtothesequestions,whatwecandoismakinganattempttostudythemonly.InthedevelopmentprocessofEconomicGrowthTheory,thereformsthreemaintheories,namely,ClassicalGrowthTheory,Neo-classicalGrowthTheoryandNewGrowthTheory.However,thesetheoreticalresearchesaremostlybasedonthecircumstancesofdevelopedcountries.Uptonow,thequestionwhethertheresearchmodelissuitableforthedevelopingcountriesisstillunresolved.Manyscholarsarecommittedtoconstructingtheeconomicgrowthmodelofthedevelopingcountriesbyvariousmodelsandmeteringmodelsalltheway.Nevertheless,duetothespecialcircumstancesandcultureofthedevelopedcountries,manymodels’hypotheticbasisandreferencestandardarenotcompletelyapplicable.Therefore,theopinionsaboutitstillvary.Onthebasisofexistingtheories,thispaperfirstsummarizestheresearchlimitationsofeachtheoryandtheirapplicationprospectsinthedevelopingcountries.Second,makeselectiveanalysisontheapplicationofaccumulationofcapital,technologicalchangeandinstitutionaldevelopmentintheneweconomicgrowththeory.Last,discussthepracticalsignificanceoftheeconomicgrowththeoryinthedevelopingcountries.

2.0TheLimitationsofEachEconomicGrowthTheory

2.1Harrod-DomarModelandtheSavingsRatiooftheDevelopingCountries

Harrod-Domarmodelhasadoptedthefixedproductionfunction,Capital—Laborrate.Inthismodel,economicgrowth（G）ismainlyassociatedwiththerateofcapitalaccumulation,includingsavingsratioandtherateofinvestment.TheproportionofcapitalandoutputisV.Undercertainconditions,G=S/V.Andbecauseoftheoverabundanthypothesis,Ga=Gw=Gn,whichistooharsh,thismodelisalmostanidealinreality（RoyForbesHarrod,1948）.Besides,inthedevelopingcountries,thereexistsdifferentcultureandconsumptionhabits,whichmakesthesavingsunabletoconverttoinvestmentfullyandtheabilityofattractingforeigncapitallimited.Soitisimpossibleforthemtoachieveeconomicgrowthdrawnonthismodel.TaketheeconomicgrowthofChinaforanexample.Before1990,Chineseeconomygrewtardily,chieflyfortheinstitutionalimmobilityandsingleconsumptionpattern.Onaccountofcurrentinstitutionalfactor,themajorityofsocialfixedinvestmentisfromthegovernmentandthechannelofcreditpolicyunderthemacroeconomicregulationofthegovernment.Alargequantityofhouseholdsavingshaslittlepullingpowertotheconsumption.Restrictedbypoliciesandthestateofindustrialdevelopment,theausgangofindividualinvestmentisturningintotheindustrialfield,shapingtheunreasonable,repetitiveandlow-effectiveinvestmentstructure.Asaresult,onlyreferringtotherateofcapitalaccumulation,ChineseeconomyhasdeviatedtheHarrod-Domarmodel.

2.2TechnologyChangeandGovernmentalAction

Perfectcompetitionisanimportantpresuppositionofneo-classicalmodel.However,forthedevelopingcountries,perfectcompetitionisafargoal.Moreover,technologychangeitselfhasincludedthegenerationofnewideas,whilenewideasownthefeaturesofnon-rivalrypublicgoods.

Hence,merelythetwohavenotmatchedwiththemeasurementofthemodel.

Inviewoftheinsufficiencyofthehypothesisinneo-classicalmodel,Harrod-Domarmodel（1962）introducedanewconceptthatthegovernmentintervenesintheeconomyinacertaindegree.Soonafterwards,Romarhadbuilthisownknowledgespillovermodel.Rumorsupposed:

Knowledgeistheproductionwhenthemanufacturerswhopursuefortheprofitmaximizationmakeinvestmentdecisions.Whileknowledgehasspillovereffect,theknowledgeproducedbyanymanufacturersallcouldimprovetheproductivityofthewholesociety.ThemodelofRomardeems,endogenoustechnologychangeistheonlysourceofeconomicgrowth.TheknowledgespillovermodelofRomar（1986）couldgivepartialinterpretationwhysomenationsarepoorandsomearerich.Rumormadeafurtherhypothesisinhisendogenoustechnologychangemodel.Technologychangeistheresultthattheprincipalpartofthosewhoseekforprofitmaximizationmakeinvestmentoptions.Themodel’smainconclusionsare:

humancapitalstockdeterminesthegrowthrate;Inthesteadystate,thecapitalinvestedtoresearchanddevelopmentwouldbeless;seekingforintegrationwiththeworldmarketwouldboostthegrowthrate;vastpopulationisunnecessaryforeconomicgrowth.Whereasthetheorycontradictswiththestatusquoofdevelopingcountries.Thetechnicallevelofmostdevelopingcountriesislowonaccountofinsufficientcomprehensivenationalpowerandunsoundeducationsystem.Onthecontrary,becauseofoverabundantpopulation,theireconomicgrowthismainlydrivenbythelaborintensiveenterprises.Inreality,theseveralprimeindicatorsruncountertothemodel.Ontheotherhand,overmuchgovernmentintervention,suchasinChina,alsocouldcounterbalancetheeconomicgrowth.

Asamatteroffact,theeconomicgrowththeoryconstructedbyRomar（1986）,Lucas（1988）,andsoon,onthefoundationofwhichbyArrow,etc.,hasn’tindeedintroducedtechnologychangeintothegrowthmodel.Becauseinthesemodels,withthedevelopmentofeconomy,thereturnoninvestmentofallcapitalgoods,containinghumancapital,woulddecreaseprogressively,whichmakesthegrowthinthemodelhavetobesodefinite.

Knowledgespilloverandtheexternalityofhumancapitaljustslowdownthespeedofattenuation,insteadoferadicatingtheattenuation.Bringingresearch&developmenttheoryandtheideaofnon-perfectcompetitioninthegrowthmodeloriginatedfromthecontributionofRomar（1987and1990）.Inthesemodels,technologychangerootedincompetitiveresearchanddevelopmentactivitieswhichcouldacquireexpostfactomonopolyability.Onlyifthoughtshaven’tdriedup,theeconomywouldkeepalong-termpositivegrowthrate.Consequently,aconclusiongottenfromthesemodelsisthatthegovernment’sactionexertsaninfluenceonthelong-termeconomicgrowthrate.

2.3InstitutionalFactor

Economicgrowththeoryhasgonethroughthreephasessuccessively,ClassicalGrowthTheory,Neo-classicalGrowthTheoryandNewGrowthTheory.ThoughNewEconomicGrowthTheoryhasalreadyhadtechnologygeneratedinternally,ithasn’ttakeninstitutionalfactorintoconsideration.Peoplecometorealizethesignificanteffectofinstitutiononeconomicgrowth.Intermsofsomeeconomists’viewpoints,institutionalchangeistherealcauseofeconomicgrowth.Whiletechnologychangeisnomorethanthemanifestationofeconomicgrowth.

However,accordingtothetheoryofproductivityandproductionrelationnarratedinthe“CapitalTheory”ofMarx,technologybelongstothecategoryofproductivity,whileinstitutionbelongstothecategoryofproductionrelation;technologychangedeterminesthechangeofinstitution,whileinstitutionalchangeaffectstechnologychangeinturn（Marx,1910）.Thiscontradictionmaybecouldbeexplainedwiththefollowingpoints.Inmanycases,thespeedoftechnologychangeisfasterthanthespeedofinstitutionalchangemoreoftenthannot.Inotherwords,thecontributiontoeconomicgrowthcausedbytechnologychangeiseasytobeobservedbypeople,whilethecontributionofinstitutionalchangeislikelytobeunconspicuous,especiallywhentheinstitutioninanequilibriumstatus.Maybeitisoneofthereasonswhysomanyeconomistshaveneglectedthevitalfunctionofinstitutionalchangeoneconomicgrowth.Nevertheless,inthespecifichistoricalperiodofsomecertaincountries,thesharpchangeofinstitution（institutionhasn’tarrivedattheequilibriumstatus）ledtoarapidgrowthoftheireconomy,whichmayontheothersidecauseeconomistsputtoomuchemphasisontheroleofinstitutionalchangetotheeconomicgrowth.TheanalysismadebyHare（2004）couldberegardedasanevidenceoftheabovepoints.Toone’sregret,NewGrowthTheoryhasfocuseditsattentionontechnologychange,buthasn’tdrawninstitutionalchangeintoformaleconomicgrowthmodel,whichgetsthefunctionofinstitutionhardtobemeasured.

3.0TheApplicationofEconomicGrowthTheoryinDevelopingCountries

3.1TechnologyChange---theBottleneckfortheDevelopingCountriestoDevelop

Developingcountrieshaveexperienceddecadeslongperiodthateconomydevelopsslowly.Sofar,theyhavetransferredfromsellers’markettobuyers’marketonthewholeandtheaverageprofitrateofthematerialcapitalinvestmentbeginstodrop.Itistherepresentationofthelawofdiminishingmarginalreturnsinamacroscopiclevel.NewGrowthTheoryholds:

thepositiveexternalityofnew-knowledgeproductionandtheaccumulationofhumancapitalarehelpfultoholdthephenomenonofdiminishingreturnsbackinmaterialcapitalinvestment.Inordertoachievesustainableandsteadyeconomicgrowth,thedevelopingcountrieshavetorelyontheproductionofnewknowledgeandnewideastomakeupthedropofprofitsbroughtbytheproducts.Butduetothefactthatinnovativetechnologiescouldbeduplicatedbytheothers,theproducers（namely,theinnovator）ofnewknowledgeandnewideasarenotabletoobtainalltheprofitscreatedbyinnovation.E