计量经济学第八章第58题答案.docx
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计量经济学第八章第58题答案
第8章练习5
证明:
对方程
两边同时减去
,得:
然后对该式等号右边加上再减去一个
,得:
将第二个方程
代入,得:
其中,
,
,
第8章练习8
下表给出了1978~2007年中国货物进出口额的自然对数序列。
年份
LX
LM
年份
LX
LM
1978
4.5799
4.6904
1993
6.8215
6.9466
1979
4.9171
5.0543
1994
7.0985
7.0528
1980
5.1996
5.2993
1995
7.3051
7.1860
1981
5.3941
5.3945
1996
7.3202
7.2358
1982
5.4081
5.2622
1997
7.5109
7.2610
1983
5.4040
5.3655
1998
7.5159
7.2459
1984
5.5661
5.6135
1999
7.5752
7.4128
1985
5.6113
6.0462
2000
7.8208
7.7191
1986
5.7346
6.0617
2001
7.8865
7.7979
1987
5.9774
6.0687
2002
8.0883
7.9901
1988
6.1637
6.3148
2003
8.3853
8.3255
1989
6.2642
6.3825
2004
8.6883
8.6327
1990
6.4312
6.2795
2005
8.9385
8.7947
1991
6.5780
6.4582
2006
9.1788
8.9765
1992
6.7445
6.6920
2007
9.4074
9.1653
(1)解:
根据Eview软件操作得:
对1978-2007年中国货物进、出口额的自然对数系列LX,LM的单位根检验分别如下:
对LX的单位根检验:
NullHypothesis:
LXhasaunitroot
Exogenous:
None
LagLength:
2(Fixed)
t-Statistic
Prob.*
AugmentedDickey-Fullerteststatistic
3.660835
0.9998
Testcriticalvalues:
1%level
-2.653401
5%level
-1.953858
10%level
-1.609571
*MacKinnon(1996)one-sidedp-values.
AugmentedDickey-FullerTestEquation
DependentVariable:
D(LX)
Method:
LeastSquares
Date:
05/28/11Time:
12:
13
Sample(adjusted):
19812007
Includedobservations:
27afteradjustments
Variable
Coefficient
Std.Error
t-Statistic
Prob.
LX(-1)
0.022104
0.006038
3.660835
0.0012
D(LX(-1))
0.089362
0.198210
0.450844
0.6561
D(LX(-2))
-0.056822
0.179525
-0.316512
0.7544
R-squared
0.165948
Meandependentvar
0.155844
AdjustedR-squared
0.096444
S.D.dependentvar
0.094091
S.E.ofregression
0.089439
Akaikeinfocriterion
-1.886086
Sumsquaredresid
0.191983
Schwarzcriterion
-1.742104
Loglikelihood
28.46216
Hannan-Quinncriter.
-1.843273
Durbin-Watsonstat
2.075404
根据上表得”AugmentedDickey-Fullerteststatistics”的数值为 3.660835,大于5%criticalvalues:
的数值-1.953858,即3.660835>-1.953858。
所以说明LX检验的序列(现在检验的是原序列)是不平稳的,至少有一个单位根。
对LM的单位根检验:
NullHypothesis:
LMhasaunitroot
Exogenous:
Constant,LinearTrend
LagLength:
1(Fixed)
t-Statistic
Prob.*
AugmentedDickey-Fullerteststatistic
-2.391420
0.3756
Testcriticalvalues:
1%level
-4.323979
5%level
-3.580623
10%level
-3.225334
*MacKinnon(1996)one-sidedp-values.
AugmentedDickey-FullerTestEquation
DependentVariable:
D(LM)
Method:
LeastSquares
Date:
05/28/11Time:
13:
22
Sample(adjusted):
19802007
Includedobservations:
28afteradjustments
Variable
Coefficient
Std.Error
t-Statistic
Prob.
LM(-1)
-0.366456
0.153238
-2.391420
0.0250
D(LM(-1))
0.413168
0.191216
2.160746
0.0409
C
1.767965
0.712477
2.481434
0.0205
@TREND(1978)
0.052495
0.020853
2.517424
0.0189
R-squared
0.261758
Meandependentvar
0.146821
AdjustedR-squared
0.169478
S.D.dependentvar
0.131779
S.E.ofregression
0.120094
Akaikeinfocriterion
-1.269523
Sumsquaredresid
0.346141
Schwarzcriterion
-1.079208
Loglikelihood
21.77333
Hannan-Quinncriter.
-1.211342
F-statistic
2.836560
Durbin-Watsonstat
1.832088
Prob(F-statistic)
0.059412
根据上表得”AugmentedDickey-Fullerteststatistics”的数值为 -2.391420,大于5%criticalvalues:
的数值-3.580623,即 -2.391420>-3.580623。
所以说明LM检验的序列(现在检验的是原序列)是不平稳的,至少有一个单位根。
附:
LX,LM的时间序列图如下:
(2)根据Eview软件操作得:
LX的单整性:
NullHypothesis:
D(LX)hasaunitroot
Exogenous:
Constant
LagLength:
1(Fixed)
t-Statistic
Prob.*
AugmentedDickey-Fullerteststatistic
-3.339047
0.0229
Testcriticalvalues:
1%level
-3.699871
5%level
-2.976263
10%level
-2.627420
*MacKinnon(1996)one-sidedp-values.
AugmentedDickey-FullerTestEquation
DependentVariable:
D(LX,2)
Method:
LeastSquares
Date:
05/28/11Time:
13:
07
Sample(adjusted):
19812007
Includedobservations:
27afteradjustments
Variable
Coefficient
Std.Error
t-Statistic
Prob.
D(LX(-1))
-0.802671
0.240389
-3.339047
0.0027
D(LX(-1),2)
0.006699
0.192327
0.034830
0.9725
C
0.124722
0.042553
2.931004
0.0073
R-squared
0.410284
Meandependentvar
-0.001996
AdjustedR-squared
0.361141
S.D.dependentvar
0.119873
S.E.ofregression
0.095813
Akaikeinfocriterion
-1.748399
Sumsquaredresid
0.220323
Schwarzcriterion
-1.604418
Loglikelihood
26.60339
Hannan-Quinncriter.
-1.705586
F-statistic
8.348774
Durbin-Watsonstat
1.994367
Prob(F-statistic)
0.001769
根据上面表格得”AugmentedDickey-Fullerteststatistics”的数值为 -3.339047,小于5%criticalvalues:
的数值-2.976263,即 -3.339047<-2.976263,这就说明LX检验的序列(现在检验的是一次差分序列)是平稳的,所以LX序列为1阶单整序列。
LM的单整性:
NullHypothesis:
D(LM)hasaunitroot
Exogenous:
Constant
LagLength:
1(Fixed)
t-Statistic
Prob.*
AugmentedDickey-Fullerteststatistic
-5.027427
0.0004
Testcriticalvalues:
1%level
-3.699871
5%level
-2.976263
10%level
-2.627420
*MacKinnon(1996)one-sidedp-values.
AugmentedDickey-FullerTestEquation
DependentVariable:
D(LM,2)
Method:
LeastSquares
Date:
05/28/11Time:
13:
32
Sample(adjusted):
19812007
Includedobservations:
27afteradjustments
Variable
Coefficient
Std.Error
t-Statistic
Prob.
D(LM(-1))
-1.129241
0.224616
-5.027427
0.0000
D(LM(-1),2)
0.410044
0.175547
2.335808
0.0282
C
0.164725
0.040855
4.031969
0.0005
R-squared
0.520213
Meandependentvar
-0.002081
AdjustedR-squared
0.480230
S.D.dependentvar
0.170029
S.E.ofregression
0.122583
Akaikeinfocriterion
-1.255623
Sumsquaredresid
0.360636
Schwarzcriterion
-1.111641
Loglikelihood
19.95091
Hannan-Quinncriter.
-1.212810
F-statistic
13.01108
Durbin-Watsonstat
2.003569
Prob(F-statistic)
0.000149
根据上面表格得”AugmentedDickey-Fullerteststatistics”的数值为-5.027427,小于5%criticalvalues:
的数值-2.976263,即 -5.027427<-2.976263,这就说明LM检验的序列(现在检验的是一次差分序列)是平稳的,所以LM序列为1阶单整序列。
(3).根据Eview软件操作得:
检验形式1:
Date:
05/28/11Time:
13:
50
Sample(adjusted):
19802007
Includedobservations:
28afteradjustments
Trendassumption:
Nodeterministictrend
Series:
LXLM
Lagsinterval(infirstdifferences):
1to1
UnrestrictedCointegrationRankTest(Trace)
Hypothesized
Trace
0.05
No.ofCE(s)
Eigenvalue
Statistic
CriticalValue
Prob.**
None*
0.385283
20.27831
12.32090
0.0019
Atmost1*
0.211508
6.653716
4.129906
0.0117
Tracetestindicates2cointegratingeqn(s)atthe0.05level
*denotesrejectionofthehypothesisatthe0.05level
**MacKinnon-Haug-Michelis(1999)p-values
UnrestrictedCointegrationRankTest(MaximumEigenvalue)
Hypothesized
Max-Eigen
0.05
No.ofCE(s)
Eigenvalue
Statistic
CriticalValue
Prob.**
None*
0.385283
13.62459
11.22480
0.0186
Atmost1*
0.211508
6.653716
4.129906
0.0117
Max-eigenvaluetestindicates2cointegratingeqn(s)atthe0.05level
*denotesrejectionofthehypothesisatthe0.05level
**MacKinnon-Haug-Michelis(1999)p-values
UnrestrictedCointegratingCoefficients(normalizedbyb'*S11*b=I):
LX
LM
2.662861
-2.984473
6.889796
-6.895310
UnrestrictedAdjustmentCoefficients(alpha):
D(LX)
-0.063612
0.000295
D(LM)
-0.036742
0.056494
1CointegratingEquation(s):
Loglikelihood
49.93444
Normalizedcointegratingcoefficients(standarderrorinparentheses)
LX
LM
1.000000
-1.120777
(0.02827)
Adjustmentcoefficients(standarderrorinparentheses)
D(LX)
-0.169391
(0.04279)
D(LM)
-0.097838
(0.06993)
根据上面表格得:
20.27831> 12.32090和 13.62459> 11.22480,,这说明了至少有一个协整关系存在。
上述协整检验结果表明两个变量LX、LM之间存在协整关系。
检验形式2:
Date:
05/28/11Time:
13:
54
Sample(adjusted):
19802007
Includedobservations:
28afteradjustments
Trendassumption:
Nodeterministictrend(restrictedconstant)
Series:
LXLM
Lagsinterval(infirstdifferences):
1to1
UnrestrictedCointegrationRankTest(Trace)
Hypothesized
Trace
0.05
No.ofCE(s)
Eigenvalue
Statistic
CriticalValue
Prob.**
None*
0.478989
27.49647
20.26184
0.0042
Atmost1*
0.281100
9.240922
9.164546
0.0484
Tracetestindicates2cointegratingeqn(s)atthe0.05level
*denotesrejectionofthehypothesisatthe0.05level
**MacKinnon-Haug-Michelis(1999)p-values
UnrestrictedCointegrationRankTest(MaximumEigenvalue)
Hypothesized
Max-Eigen
0.05
No.ofCE(s)
Eigenva