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最新计量经济学stata英文资料
Graduatestoapplyforthequantitativeanalysisofchangesinnumberofgraduatestudents
一Topicsraised
Inthispaper,thetotalnumberofstudentsfromgraduatestudents(variable)multivariateanalysis(seebelow)specificanalysis,andcollectrelevantdata,modelbuilding,thisquantitativeanalysis.Thenumberofrelationsbetweentheschoolthetotalnumberofgraduatestudentswiththemajorfactors,accordingtothesizeofthevariousfactorsinthecoefficientinthemodelequations,analyzetheimportanceofvariousfactors,exactlywhatfactorsinchangesinthenumberofgraduatestudentsaspectsplayakeyroleinandchangesinthetrendforfuturegraduatestudentstoourproposal.
Themainfactorsaffectchangesinthetotalnumberofgraduatestudentsforstudentsareasfollows:
PercapitaGDP-whichisaffectinganimportantfactortothetotalnumberofstudentsinthegraduatestudents(graduateschoolisnotasmallcost,andonlyhaveacertaineconomicbasehavemoreopportunitiesforpost-graduate)
Thetotalpopulation-itwillaffectthetotalnumberofstudentsingraduatestudentsisanimportantfactor(itcanbesaidtoaffectitisbasedonsource)
Thenumberofunemployedpersons-thisistheimpactofadirectfactorofthetotalnumberofstudentsinthegraduatestudents(itispreciselybecauseofthehighunemploymentrate,willmorepeoplechooseKaoyanwillbetheirownemploymentweights)
Numberofcollegesanduniversities-whichistoinfluencepreciselybecauseoftheemergenceofmoreinstitutionsofhigherlearningintheschoolthetotalnumberofgraduatestudentsisnotasmallfactor(toallowmorepeopletoparticipateinKaoyan)
二EstablishModel
Y=α+β1X1+β2X2+β3X3+β4X4+u
Amongthem,the
Y-inthetotalnumberofgraduatestudents(variable)
X1-percapitaGDP(explanatoryvariables)
X2-thetotalpopulation(explanatoryvariables)
X3-thenumberofunemployedpersons(explanatoryvariables)
X4-thenumberofcollegesanduniversities(explanatoryvariables)
三、Datacollection
1.dateExplain
Here,usingthesamearea(ie,China)time-seriesdatawerefitted
2.Datacollection
Timeseriesdatafrom1986to2005,thespecificcircumstancesareshowninTable1
Table1:
Y
X1
X2
X3
X4
1986
110371
963
107507
264.4
1054
1987
120191
1112
109300
276.6
1063
1988
112776
1366
111026
296.2
1075
1989
101339
1519
112704
377.9
1075
1990
93018
1644
114333
383.2
1075
1991
88128
1893
115823
352.2
1075
1992
94164
2311
117171
363.9
1053
1993
106771
2998
118517
420.1
1065
1994
127935
4044
119850
476.4
1080
1995
145443
5046
121121
519.6
1054
1996
163322
5846
122389
552.8
1032
1997
176353
6420
123626
576.8
1020
1998
198885
6796
124761
571
1022
1999
233513
7159
125786
575
1071
2000
301239
7858
126743
595
1041
2001
393256
8622
127627
681
1225
2002
500980
9398
128453
770
1396
2003
651260
10542
129227
800
1552
2004
TheQian楀唴鏉″warship鐮?
819896
The鎶mat娂鏈熼棿12336
TheMa愬姏鍒嗘瀽129988
827
1731
TheNing傚満鏇savesthe湁鏁堢巼2005
978610
Tieuptheindigo悜鐭F14040
130756
TheQian撳瓨Congplank綍839
1792
The鐝鏈嶅姟
四、Modelparameterestimation,inspectionandcorrection
The鑸┖Luц繍鎵Ku徑Juan?
1.Modelparameterestimationanditseconomicsignificance,statisticalinferencetest
The鍐Feng喕鍖?
twoway(scatterYX2)
twoway(scatterYX3)
TheXi樼幇Luarch鑰?
twoway(scatterYX4)
graphtwowaylfityX1
graphtwowaylfityX2
graphtwowaylfityX3
graphtwowaylfityX4
Y=59.22454816*X1-7.158602346*X2-366.8774279*X3+621.3347694*X4
(6.352288)(3.257541)(157.9402)(46.72256)
t=(9.323341)(-2.197548)(-2.322889)(13.29839)
+270775.151
(369252.8)
(0.733306)
R2=0.996048AdjustedR-squared=0.994994F=945.1415DW=1.596173
Visible,X1,X2,X3,X4tvaluesaresignificant,indicatingthatthepercapitaGDP,thetotalpopulationofregisteredurbanunemployedpopulation,thenumberofcollegesanduniversitiesarethemainfactorsaffectingthetotalnumberofgraduatestudentsinschool.Modelcoefficientofdeterminationfor0.996048amendmentscoefficientofdeterminationof0.994994,wasrelativelylarge,indicatinghighdegreeofmodelfit,whiletheFvalueof945.1415,indicatingthatthemodeloverallissignificant。
Inaddition,thecoefficientofX1,X4,inlinewitheconomicsignificance,butthecoefficientofX2,X3,doesnotmeettheeconomicsignificance,becausefromaneconomicsense,withtheincreaseinthetotalpopulation(X2),thetotalnumberofgraduatestudentsshouldbeincreased,andduetotheincreaseinthenumberofunemployed,therewillbemoreandmorepeoplechoosegraduateschool,sothatthetotalnumberofunemployedandgraduatestudentsshouldbepositivelycorrelated.X2,X3coefficientsigncontrarytoexpectations,whichmayindicatetheexistenceofseveremulticollinearity.
2.计量经济学检验
TheabovetablecanbeseentoexplainthepositivecorrelationbetweentheheightofthevariableX1andX2,X3,X4,X2,X1,X3,betweenthehighlypositivelycorrelated,showingthatthereisseriousmulticollinearity.Followingamendmentstepwiseregression:
Y=60.21976901*X1-61096.25048
(6.311944)(42959.23)
t=(9.540606)(-1.422191)
AdjustedR-squared=0.825725F=91.02316
Y=27.05878289*X2-2993786.354
(5.622791)(680596.9)
t=(4.812340)(-4.398766)
R-squared=0.562668F=23.15862
Y=1231.659997*X3-371863.6509
(161.9045)(90051.37)
t=(7.607324)(-4.129461)
AdjustedR-squared=0.749576F=57.87138
Y=1053.519847*X4-964699.7964
(65.85948)(79072.71)
t=(15.99648)(-12.20016)
AdjustedR-squared=0.930628F=255.8874
Theanalysisshowsthatthefoursimpleregressionmodel,thetotalnumberofgraduatestudentsforthelinearrelationshipbetweenYcollegex4,goodnessoffit:
Y=1053.519847*X4-964699.7964
(65.85948)(79072.71)
t=(15.99648)(-12.20016)
AdjustedR-squared=0.930628F=255.887
Y=714.1694264*X4+25.58237739*X1-708247.7381
(48.45708)(2.930053)(45496.23)
t=(14.73818)(8.731029)(-15.56718)
AdjustedR-squared=0.986606F=700.7988
Y=886.3583756*X4+8.974091045*X2-1852246.686
(55.52670)(1.837722)(189180.7)
t=(15.96274)(4.883269)(-9.790886)
AdjustedR-squared=0.969430F=302.2581
Y=791.519267*X4+436.7502136*X3-885870.134
(69.64253)(90.10899)(55171.66)
t=(11.36546)(4.846910)(-16.05662)
AdjustedR-squared=0.969163F=299.5666
Bythedataanalysis,comparison,percapitaGDPofthenewentrantstotheX1equationoftheAdjustedR-squared=.986606
Thelargestimprovement,andeachparameter,T-testsignificant,soIchosetoretaintheX1
Thenaddtheothernewvariablestothestepwiseregression:
Y=570.3757921*X4+53.53863254*X1-12.18901747*X2+777507.8381
(46.57535)(6.618152)(2.747500)(336370.1)
t=(12.24630)(8.089665)(-4.436403)(2.311466)
AdjustedR-squared=0.994626F=987.1753
Throughanalysis,wecanfind:
addanewvariableX2,X2coefficient-12.18901747,indicatinganegativecorrelationbetweenX2andY,butintherealeconomicsignificance,X2totalpopulation,andYnumberofgraduatestudentsapositivecorrelationbetweenthemoregeneraleconomicsignificanceofthetotalpopulation,theabsoluteamountofthenumberofgraduatestudentwillbemore.So,X2,shouldberemoved.
Y=700.5113451*X4+53.63805156*X1-597.614061*X3-534866.1749
(33.11564)(6.480707)(131.3478)(49101.16)
t=(12.24630)(8.089665)(-4.436403)(2.311466)
AdjustedR-squared=0.994626F=987.1753
Similarly,addinganewvariableX3,itsparameterestimateisstillnegative,X3,representedbythenumberofunemploymentinurbanareas,theeconomicsignificance,themoreunemploymentinurbanareas,willencouragemoreandmorepeoplegotoPubMedinordertoachieveimprovetheirownquality,employabilityandopportunities.So,inreality,thetwoshouldbepositivelycorrelated,itshouldberemovedX3
3.Whitetest
Finalresultsofaseriesofinspectionandcorrection:
Y=-51055.44688+66.53070046*X1+382.1680346*X4
(9052.520) (9.443438) (78.77833)
t=(-5.639916)(7.045178)(4.851182)
AdjustedR-squared=0.921287F=106.3395 DW=1.627477
五、Analysisandconclusionsofthemodel
Itcanbeseenfromthemodel:
(1)model:
significantlycorrelatedonlywithcollegesanduniversitiestotalandpercapitaGDPinthetotalnumberofgraduatestudents.
(2)X1,X4isinlinewitheconomicsignificanceofthetest.Economicsense,thetotalnumberofgraduatestudentswiththeincreaseinpercapitaGDPincreases,theincreasewiththeincreaseinthetotalnumberofuniversities.Anduniversitiesisthetotalimpactofthetotalnumberofthemostimportantfactorinthegraduatestudents.
(3)theamendmentofthemodelcoefficientofdeterminationandFvaluesareveryhighgoodnessoffitofthemodelisgood