Watch 35 Years of the Worlds Economy Evolving as a Living Organism.docx

Watch 35 Years of the Worlds Economy Evolving as a Living Organism.docx

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Watch35YearsoftheWorldsEconomyEvolvingasaLivingOrganism

Watch35YearsoftheWorld’sEconomyEvolvingasaLivingOrganism

30September2015

Alothashappenedtotheglobaleconomyoverthelast35years.Theforcesofeconomicliberalization,globalization,andtheriseofthemultinationalcorporationhavealllefttheirmark.Manycountrieshavebenefitedoverthisperiod,butsomehavesuffered.Othershavenotreallychangedmuchintermsoftheirglobaleconomicposition.

Usingdatafromthe InternationalMonetaryFund （IMF）,weproducedadynamicVoronoidiagramshowingtheGDPsoftheworld’slargestcountriesfrom1980to2015. GDP isthetotalmarketvalueofallgoodsandservicesproducedinacountryforagiventimeperiod.

Inthediagram,thesizeofthecountriesandregionsrepresenttherelativesizeoftheireconomies（intermsofnominalGDP）.Asthediagramcyclesthroughtheyearsfrom1980to2015,youcanseehoweconomieshavegrownorcontractedrelativetoothers.

Wehaveproducedsimilardiagramsbefore— one comparingthelevelofeconomicactivityinthevariousUSstates,and another comparingtheGDP（bysector）oftheworld’slargesteconomies.Checkthemoutformoreeconomicinsights!

Note:

Thearealabeled"other"representscountrieswithacombinedGDPthathasbeenconsistentlylowerthan11.5%oftheglobaleconomyoverthelast35years.

Whatthediagramtellsus

Ifyoufocusonaparticularregionorcountry,youwillnoticethatinmanycasesthereisaperiodofrelativeexpansionfollowedbyrelativecontraction,orviceversa.TheUSeconomy,forexample,grewinrelativetermsuntil1985,thenitstartedtoshrinkuntil1995,whenitstartedgrowingagaintoapeakin2002,andthenfellbackagainuntilabout2009—sincethenithasbeenrelativelystableataround22%ofglobalGDP.（Talkaboutarollercoasterride!

）

Thebiggestchangeoverthelast35yearswasatransferofeconomicdominancefromEuropetoAsia.Infact,in1980,Europerepresentedapproximately32%ofglobaleconomicactivity,whileAsiaaccountedforabout20%.By2012,theirpositionshadbeencompletelyreversed.

Meanwhile,therelativeGDPofNorthAmericadecreasedbyjust2%overthe35-yearperiod,whileSouthAmerica,Oceania,andAfricasawmarginalincreases.TheCanadianandMexicaneconomieshavedeclinedslightlyinrelativeterms（by0.2%and0.4%）between1980and2014,whiletheUSeconomywentfrom25.7%ofglobalGDPin1980to22.5%in2014.

Themostdrasticcountry-levelchangeshappenedwithinAsia.ThebiggeststoryisofcourseChina,whichgrewfrom2.8%ofglobalGDPin1980to13.4%in2014.Conversely,Japanshrunkfrom9.8%in1980to6.0%in2014.TheotherbigcontributorstoAsia’seconomicgrowthwereIndia,SouthKorea,Russia,andTaiwan.

AccordingtoIMFprojections,2015willactuallybeafantasticyearofgrowthfortheUS,China,andIndia:

theUSeconomyisforecasttogrowby1.8%comparedto2014（inrelativeterms）,whileChinaandIndiaareforecasttogrowby1.6%and0.5%.Theworst-performingeconomiesthisyearwillbeRussia（-0.8%）,Brazil（-0.4%）,Japan（-0.4%）,Germany（-0.4%）,andFrance（-0.4%）.

Keyfindings

Herearethekeypointsthatthisdiagramhastaughtus:

∙Historydoesn’tgoinastraightline:

 formanycountries（includingtheUS）,thelast35yearshavebeenaneconomicrollercoasterride.AnotherexampleisJapan,whichreachedapeakof17.6%oftheglobaleconomyin1994,butnowstandsatjust6%.

∙Theglobaleconomyactuallymovesinwaves:

overtheyears,recessionsintheUShaveimpactedtheentireglobaleconomy.Forinstance,risingUSinterestratesfrom1986-1989andanoilpriceshockin1990brieflyslowedeconomicgrowthintheUS.Also,theyear2001sawthedot-combubbleburstand9-11attacks,whichendedadecadeofeconomicgrowth.ButitwastheGreatRecessionfrom2007-2009thathadthebiggestimpact,causingtheUSandEuropeaneconomiestoslowwhileemergingcountries（mostlyinAsia）continuedtogathersteam.

∙Whileoffitspeak, theUSremainsthemostdominantsingleeconomy,representingalmostone-quarter（22.5%）oftheworld’sGDP—equivalenttotheEurope’sshare.

∙China’seconomyhasskyrocketed,growingfromarelativelysmalleconomyin1980（2.8%ofglobalGDP）to thesecond-largesteconomytoday （13.4%ofglobalGDP）.

∙IntermsofGDP, AsiaisthenewEurope —Asia’scurrentshareoftheglobaleconomyisroughlyequivalenttoEurope’sin1980（32%）.

Whereistheglobaleconomyheading?

AccordingtotheIMF’s WorldEconomicOutlook,theglobaleconomywillgrowby3.3%in2015,slightlyslowerthanlastyear.ButtheIMFnotesthatadvancedeconomieswillactuallybegrowingfasterthisyear,whilegrowthindevelopingeconomieswillbeslowerthanin2014.

TheIMFexpectsglobalgrowthtospeedupto3.8%in2016duetolowinterestrates,neutralfiscalpolicyintheEU,lowerfuelprices,andgrowingconfidenceinlabormarketconditions.TheChairoftheFederalReserveintheUSseemsconfidentaswell, recentlystating that“theprospectsfortheUSeconomygenerallyappearsolid”.Nevertheless,therearedownsideeconomicrisks,includingmarketvolatilityandexcessiveassetpricesshifts.

Wheredoyouthinktheglobaleconomyisheaded?

Pleasefeelfreeto leaveyourcommentsbelow!

Wewouldliketohearyourfeedback.

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