波士顿-某电信企业战略咨询报告-2.ppt

波士顿-某电信企业战略咨询报告-2.ppt

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-1-ChinaNetcom-TheBostonConsultingGroup-Confidential-DestroybyShredding-45034-05-Interim-14Dec99-TZD-gx-SHICONTENTKeystrategicprinciplesRegulatoryoverviewMarketoverviewCompetitionoverviewBusinessmodelsNextsteps-2-ChinaNetcom-TheBostonConsultingGroup-Confidential-DestroybyShredding-45034-05-Interim-14Dec99-TZD-gx-SHIAGENDABusinessModelsDomesticandinternationallong-distancevoiceWholesale/carrierEnterprisesolutionsIssuesgoingforward-3-ChinaNetcom-TheBostonConsultingGroup-Confidential-DestroybyShredding-45034-05-Interim-14Dec99-TZD-gx-SHIEconomicmodelingChoiceofbusinessmodelstopursueandtimingRoadmapforpursuingbusinessmodelsandexpectedfinancialperformanceIntegratedapproachtoCNCbusinessplanMajorissuesExpectedoutputHowdothemarketsizingandshareassumptionstranslateintooveralltoplinerevenueforCNC?

Whatcapitalinvestmentswillbenecessarytobuildoutmetroandlonghaulfibernetworks?

PredictedcashflowprofilebybusinessmodelandselectedscenariosAssessmentofmarketopportunitiesHowwillChinadatacommarketdevelop?

Howlargeistheoverallopportunityforanewentrant?

OverallmarketsizingandrevenueforecastbyproductareaRegulatoryandcompetitiveanalysisWhattypeofregulatoryenvironmentwillevolveinChina?

Willequalaccessforvoiceanddatabegrantedandwhen?

WhateffectwillWTOhave?

RegulatorymappingandCNCsharepredictionsacrossscenariosStrategicimplicationsandcapabilitiesassessmentMETHODOLOGYBEINGUSEDTODEVELOPBUSINESSMODELSANDOVERALLSTRATEGY-Currentareasoffocus-4-ChinaNetcom-TheBostonConsultingGroup-Confidential-DestroybyShredding-45034-05-Interim-14Dec99-TZD-gx-SHICNCATACRITICALSTRATEGICCROSSROADSPreliminaryConclusionsRecommendations/DecisionstobeMadeOffnetVOIPpredictedtogeneratetoprovidebreakeveneconomicsforbuildingbackbone1WholesalerevenueprovidessignificantupsidepotentialMajorityofwholesalerevenuereliesonaccesstomobilecarriersEnterprisesolutionseconomicsveryattractive,butsubstantialcomplexityandresourcesinvolvedHigh-bandwidthinternationalgatewaycriticaltosuccessinbothwholesaleandenterpriseEconomicpredictionshighlysensitivetoasetofkeyassumptionsAcceleratevendorselectionandbackboneconstruction;timetomarketcriticalCommitmenttoutilizingIP/DWDMinvlolvesrisktomobilecarrierbusinessRFPtovendorsshouldbebasedonproductrequirementsvs.technologyStagingofinvestmentsandservicelaunchmustconsidertradeoffbetweenqualityofserviceandcoveragePreliminarytalkswithinternationalcarriersshouldbeginASAPScenariomodelingwillhelpusdecidewheretofocusOverarchingquestion:

CanCNCsuccessfullypursueallopportunitiesoutlinedintheshort/mediumterm?

（1）Assumingsettlementfeesof10%ofrevenue-5-ChinaNetcom-TheBostonConsultingGroup-Confidential-DestroybyShredding-45034-05-Interim-14Dec99-TZD-gx-SHIOverallapproachWhereHowBUSINESSMODELSSUMMARY:

THREECOREELEMENTSEnterpriseSolutionsCapturedatacomgrowthinkeybusinesscenterswithleading-edgeproductsandsuperiorcustomerserviceTopbusinessdistrictsinmajorurbanareas;onlythemostdenseareasinshorttermFocusedDeploymentLeverageexistingconduitstolayinmajorurbanareasSuperiorserviceandbandwidthTargetCTsweaknessinserviceandbandwidthUtilizeLMDSinintermediatecitiesandareaswheretimetomarketiscriticalWholesale/CarrierTargetmobilecarriersandISPswithbackbonetransport;considersupplyingfixed-lineincumbentsCoverPOPsinallmajorcallingzones;developlocalleasedlinesnetworkinkeylocationsAggressivedeploymentofbackboneinfrastructuretoprovideunparalleledbandwidthEstablishhighbandwidthinternationalgatewaytodifferentiateinternetaccessSuperiorservicewithclearpositioning“TheclearalternativetoCT”ISPLongdistancevoiceCaptureearlyrevenuefromtofunddevelopmentofsubsequentbusinessmodelsTop60POPsbyendofyear2000utilizingmixofleasedlinesfromCTandCNCnetworkPositionoffnetvoiceasfirstproductfrom“Chinasfirstdatacomcarrier”DonotoverextendresourcesinVOIPasitdoesnotfitCNCslongtermstrategyCreate“dial-around”solutionsforbusinessandinterconnectterms-17930-6-ChinaNetcom-TheBostonConsultingGroup-Confidential-DestroybyShredding-45034-05-Interim-14Dec99-TZD-gx-SHIEnterprisesolutionsPOTENTIALBUSINESSMODELSCOVERWIDERANGEOFPRODUCT/MARKETALTERNATIVESOpportunityforgrowthCurrentmarketsizeWholesale/carrierConsumerISP?

DomesticandInternationalLongDistanceVoiceResidentialMed/largeenterprisecustomersCarriersPotentialtrafficperconsumerProductsEmergingdatacomDataVoiceEmergingdataniche-7-ChinaNetcom-TheBostonConsultingGroup-Confidential-DestroybyShredding-45034-05-Interim-14Dec99-TZD-gx-SHIAGENDABusinessModelsDomesticandinternationallong-distancevoiceWholesale/carrierEnterprisesolutionsIssuesgoingfo