阿根廷金融危机.ppt

阿根廷金融危机.ppt

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阿根廷金融危阿根廷金融危机机ArgentinaCrisisAgendaCausesofthecrisis:

RossinaDuringthecrisis:

LiPost-Crisis:

AnthonyPoliticalInstability19891999:

CarlosMenem-President1999:

FernandoDeLaRua-President2000:

Vice-PresidentCarlosAlvarezResignsDec20,2001:

FernandoDeLaRuaResignsDec21,2001:

RamonPuertaPresidentDec23,2001:

AdolfoRodriguezPresidentDec31,2001:

EduardoDuhalde-PresidentCurrencyBoard-ConvertibilityLaw54321019951996199719981999200020012002Peso/$=1.00January17,2002*CollapseofthecurrencyboardarrangementUnemploymentRealGDPInflationContagionEffectTequilaCrisis1995AsianCrisis1997Russia1998Brazil1999FunFacts!

Differencebetweenwagesandsalariespaidbythefederalgovernmentandtheprivatesector.PowerfullaborunionsInflexiblewagesandpricesRealGDPInflationUnemploymentWeakExportGrowthMountingdebtWhatwentwrong?

Factors?

LackoffiscaldisciplineLabormarketinflexibilityExternalenvironmentandshocksConvertibilityplan/CurrencyboardUnsustainabledebtOvervaluedPesoTheScopeoftheCrisisRealGDPUnemploymentInflationCashbasisPublicdebtsRealGDP1990199119921993199419951996199719981999200020012002051015-5-10-15RealGDPUnemploymentRate19901991199219931994199519961997199819992000200120020510152025UnemploymentBANK:

ProblemfacedConvertibilityregimeto“Pesoization”PeopleseekingPrivateratherthanpublicMonthlydepositwithdrawallimitwasto$250pesos,（raisedto$1500in2002）Dollardepositswouldremainfrozenuntilatleast2003CongressalsoapprovedanemergencylawthatseverelycurtailedcreditorsrightsPrivateoverPublicThegovernmentdecreestheunificationoftheexchangerateregimeandtheasymmetricpesoizationofbankbalancesheets（assetsatArg$1/US$1,andliabilitiesatArg$1.4/US$1）.“pesoization”Theexistingstockofbanksdollar-denominatedassetsandliabilitieswouldbeconvertedattherateofArg$1=US$1forloanstotheprivatesectorandArg$1.4=US$1forloanstothepublicsectorU.S.dollardeposits,whichwerealsoindexedtoinflation.Themeasurewasintendedtoprotectfirmsandhouseholdswithforeign-currencydenominateddebt,butitmerelyshiftedtheburdenofthedevaluationtothebankingsystemandultimatelytothetaxpayerasbankswouldneedtobeissuedcompensationbonds.40Themaineffectofthemeasurewastodeepenfinancialdisintermediation,curtailingthesupplyoffreshcreditincludingworkingcapitalthatbankswereabletoprovide,andthatwouldbecriticalinanyeventualrecovery.ResponseofPolicyMakertotheCrisisGovernmentwasabletoborrowamplybothdomesticallyandinternationallyThemonetarypolicywastightenAftertheTequilaCrisis（1995）Resulted:

YPutadirectconstraintonFiscalPolicyTomaintainthepegDollarizationFiscaldeteriorationin1999Reduceoverpublicdeficit=IRResponseofPolicyMakerstotheCrisisRevampedprogramConvergencefactorDebtswapZeroCashDeficitLeadto“pulltheplug”ActionstofightthecrisisFiscalresponsibilitylawZeroDeficitLawDepositfreezeDevaluationFiscalpolicyTheRoleoftheIMFFiscalResponsibilityLawSeptember1999theArgentineCongresspassedtheFiscalResponsibilityLaw,aimingtolargereductionsinfederalandprovincialgovernmentspending.ZeroDeficitLawZero-deficitlawwasimplementedinanattempttorestoremarketconfidence,attractforeigncapitalandultimatelygettheArgentineanmarketbackontrack.DepositFreezeInlate2001thegovernmentsetanumberoffinancialrestrictionstostopthemassiverunonthebanksandtoavoidacollapseofthewholebankingsystem.DevaluationJanuary2002thegovernmentwasforcedtoannouncetheendofconvertibilityregimeandthecurrencydevaluation.Thepesowasfirstdevaluedby29percentfrom1to1.4pesosperUSdollarformajorforeigncommercialtransactionsandthenwasallowedtofloattherebyquicklypeakingtoover4pesosperdollarFiscalPolicyThegovernmentannouncedaneconomicprogramthatamongotherthingsincludedincreasesinthepersonalincomeandwealthtaxes,abilltostrengthentaxenforcement,andacutinnon-interestexpenditures.DebtRestructuringTheRoleoftheIMF