麦肯锡伊拉克战后重建机会研究报告.ppt

麦肯锡伊拉克战后重建机会研究报告.ppt

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OVERVIEWOFTHEIRAQOPPORTUNITYDoingBusinessinIraqAmman,5thJune2003AchmedAl-ShahrabaniMcKinsey&Company,Inc.AGENDAOverviewIraqEconomicscenariosforIraqRequiredinvestmentsAGENDAOverviewIraqEconomicscenariosforIraqRequiredinvestmentsTotalarea:

437,000mTotalarea:

437,000m22LimitedarablelandLimitedarablelandArableland:

11%Arableland:

11%Permanentcrops:

1%Permanentcrops:

1%Desert:

88%Desert:

88%LargestLargestgovernatesgovernatesBaghdad（8.0m）Baghdad（8.0m）Nineveh（2.1m）Nineveh（2.1m）Basra（2.0m）Basra（2.0m）Varyingclimate（Baghdad）Varyingclimate（Baghdad）Summertemp:

35-50Summertemp:

35-50Wintertemp:

5-15Wintertemp:

5-15Rainfall:

155mm/yearRainfall:

155mm/yearSource:

CountryWatch,CIAworldfactbookCartransportCartransport39,000kmpavedroads39,000kmpavedroads765,000privatelyregistered765,000privatelyregisteredpassengercarspassengercars266,000privatelyregistered266,000privatelyregisteredtruckstrucksAirAirMajorairportsinBaghdad,MajorairportsinBaghdad,BasraandBasraandMosulMosulThreemajorrailwayroutesThreemajorrailwayroutesBaghdadBaghdadKirkukKirkukIrbilIrbilBaghdadBaghdadMosulMosulYurubiyahYurubiyahBaghdadBaghdadMaagalMaagalUmmUmmQasrQasrTelecomTelecom3%penetration,nomobile3%penetration,nomobilenetworknetworkUtilitiesUtilities250watertreatment250watertreatmentfacilitiesfacilitiesPowergenerationcapacityPowergenerationcapacityof9500（pre1990）,of9500（pre1990）,currentlyat1800MWcurrentlyat1800MWGeographyandclimateInfrastructureThemajorityofIraqischaracterizedbydesertOVERVIEWIRAQIGEOGRAPHYSource:

CIAworldfactbook100%=24.2mOthersArabs-ShiaMuslimsKurdsSunniMuslims46212ArabsSunniMuslims22ESTIMATEPOPULATIONSIZEBYETHNICGROUPShiaMuslimsformIraqsethnicmajority%AdultliteracyatAdultliteracyat54%（vs.75%in54%（vs.75%inIran）Iran）*From6to23yearsSource:

EIUcountryprofileIraq200219801998EDUCATIONENROLMENTRATIOFORALLAGES*-1980VS.1998AnincreasingnumberofchildrendoesnotreceiveformaleducationESTIMATESource:

CountryWatchProvenreservesUnprovenpotentialTotalGasTrillionm3,2001OilBillionbarrels,2001OVERVIEWOFIRAQSNATURALOILANDGASRESERVESIraqhasoneofthelargestnaturaloilandgasreservesESTIMATESource:

BPStatisticalreview,20021.SaudiArabia2.Iraq3.UAE4.Kuwait5.IranOil,provedreservesBillionbarrels,2001Gas,provedreservesTrillionm3,20011.Russia2.Iran3.Qatar4.SaudiArabia5.UAE10.IraqRANKINGOFBIGGESTNATURALOILANDGASRESERVESWORDWIDEwhicharethesecondlargestinoilandthetenthlargestingasESTIMATE*Purchasingpowerparitymethod,currentpricesSource:

CIAWorldfactbook;CountryWatch;EIUcountryriskreportonIraq2003200250-6025-351980DEVELOPMENTOFIRAQSREALGDP*-1980TO2002Overthepastdecade,IraqsrealGDPfellby50%USDbillionESTIMATE-50%-50%GDPestimatesGDPestimatesfor2002subjectfor2002subjecttowidevariationtowidevariation（USD24-60（USD24-60billion）billion）*Purchasingpowerparitymethod,currentpricesSource:

CIAWorldFactbook;CountryWatch20023.8-4.51.0-1.41980ESTIMATEDEVELOPMENTOFIRAQSREALGDP*PERCAPITA-1980TO2002andpurchasingpowerparityonindividuallevelevenfurtherUSDthousandsGDP/capitaGDP/capitaestimatesestimatessubjecttowidesubjecttowidevariation（USDvariation（USD1.000-2.500）1.000-2.500）-70%-70%*BasedonaGDPofUSD30billionandapopulationof24millionSource:

EIUcountryprofileIraqJordanIranIraqSaudiArabiaSyria*ESTIMATECOMPARISONOFGDPPERCAPITA-2002IraqscurrentGDPpercapitaiscomparabletoSyriaandIranUSDthousandsSource:

EIUcountrydataExternaldebt$bnIraqSyriaJordanIran230-485230-48510109191113113%ofGPD60-130MaincausesofMaincausesofuncertaintyareuncertaintyareAccruedinterestAccruedinterest“Assistance”“Assistance”fundsinIran-fundsinIran-IraqwarIraqwarClaimsClaimsfollowingGulffollowingGulfwar1991war1991ESTIMATECOMPARISONOFEXTERNALLIABILITIES-2001IraqhassignificantliabilitiesandcanbeconsideredbankruptAGENDAOverviewIraqEconomicscenariosforIraqRecentdevelopmentsSource:

McKinsey“Goodstandard”11Assumesthenon-oilsectorsoftheIraqieconomygrowsmodestlyataCAGRof3-5%overthenext10years（overallGDPgrowthincl.oil9-11%）“BestinClass”22Assumesthenon-oilpartofthetheIraqieconomygrowsstronglyataCAGRof7-9%overthenext10years（overallGDPgrowthincl.oil11-13%）“Distinctive”33Assumesthenon-oilsectorsoftheIraqieconomygrowsaggressivelyataCAGR12-15%overthenext10years（overallGDPgrowthincl.oil13-15%）ESTIMATEFORDISCUSSIONTHREEDEVELOPMENTSCENARIOSIraqsIntheWorldClassscenarioIraqiGDPpercapitacouldreach4,000USDby2013Non-oilSectorsOilproductionlevel2008Oilproductionlevel20134-5millionbarrelsperday6-7millionbarrelsperdayOilSector+*）Populationin2003=24million,2008=29million,2013=33millionSource:

McKinseyGDPdevelopment2003-2013（inbnUSD）GDPpercapita*2003-2013（in000USD）ESTIMATEFOR