麦肯锡伊拉克战后重建机会研究报告.ppt
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OVERVIEWOFTHEIRAQOPPORTUNITYDoingBusinessinIraqAmman,5thJune2003AchmedAl-ShahrabaniMcKinsey&Company,Inc.AGENDAOverviewIraqEconomicscenariosforIraqRequiredinvestmentsAGENDAOverviewIraqEconomicscenariosforIraqRequiredinvestmentsTotalarea:
437,000mTotalarea:
437,000m22LimitedarablelandLimitedarablelandArableland:
11%Arableland:
11%Permanentcrops:
1%Permanentcrops:
1%Desert:
88%Desert:
88%LargestLargestgovernatesgovernatesBaghdad(8.0m)Baghdad(8.0m)Nineveh(2.1m)Nineveh(2.1m)Basra(2.0m)Basra(2.0m)Varyingclimate(Baghdad)Varyingclimate(Baghdad)Summertemp:
35-50Summertemp:
35-50Wintertemp:
5-15Wintertemp:
5-15Rainfall:
155mm/yearRainfall:
155mm/yearSource:
CountryWatch,CIAworldfactbookCartransportCartransport39,000kmpavedroads39,000kmpavedroads765,000privatelyregistered765,000privatelyregisteredpassengercarspassengercars266,000privatelyregistered266,000privatelyregisteredtruckstrucksAirAirMajorairportsinBaghdad,MajorairportsinBaghdad,BasraandBasraandMosulMosulThreemajorrailwayroutesThreemajorrailwayroutesBaghdadBaghdadKirkukKirkukIrbilIrbilBaghdadBaghdadMosulMosulYurubiyahYurubiyahBaghdadBaghdadMaagalMaagalUmmUmmQasrQasrTelecomTelecom3%penetration,nomobile3%penetration,nomobilenetworknetworkUtilitiesUtilities250watertreatment250watertreatmentfacilitiesfacilitiesPowergenerationcapacityPowergenerationcapacityof9500(pre1990),of9500(pre1990),currentlyat1800MWcurrentlyat1800MWGeographyandclimateInfrastructureThemajorityofIraqischaracterizedbydesertOVERVIEWIRAQIGEOGRAPHYSource:
CIAworldfactbook100%=24.2mOthersArabs-ShiaMuslimsKurdsSunniMuslims46212ArabsSunniMuslims22ESTIMATEPOPULATIONSIZEBYETHNICGROUPShiaMuslimsformIraqsethnicmajority%AdultliteracyatAdultliteracyat54%(vs.75%in54%(vs.75%inIran)Iran)*From6to23yearsSource:
EIUcountryprofileIraq200219801998EDUCATIONENROLMENTRATIOFORALLAGES*-1980VS.1998AnincreasingnumberofchildrendoesnotreceiveformaleducationESTIMATESource:
CountryWatchProvenreservesUnprovenpotentialTotalGasTrillionm3,2001OilBillionbarrels,2001OVERVIEWOFIRAQSNATURALOILANDGASRESERVESIraqhasoneofthelargestnaturaloilandgasreservesESTIMATESource:
BPStatisticalreview,20021.SaudiArabia2.Iraq3.UAE4.Kuwait5.IranOil,provedreservesBillionbarrels,2001Gas,provedreservesTrillionm3,20011.Russia2.Iran3.Qatar4.SaudiArabia5.UAE10.IraqRANKINGOFBIGGESTNATURALOILANDGASRESERVESWORDWIDEwhicharethesecondlargestinoilandthetenthlargestingasESTIMATE*Purchasingpowerparitymethod,currentpricesSource:
CIAWorldfactbook;CountryWatch;EIUcountryriskreportonIraq2003200250-6025-351980DEVELOPMENTOFIRAQSREALGDP*-1980TO2002Overthepastdecade,IraqsrealGDPfellby50%USDbillionESTIMATE-50%-50%GDPestimatesGDPestimatesfor2002subjectfor2002subjecttowidevariationtowidevariation(USD24-60(USD24-60billion)billion)*Purchasingpowerparitymethod,currentpricesSource:
CIAWorldFactbook;CountryWatch20023.8-4.51.0-1.41980ESTIMATEDEVELOPMENTOFIRAQSREALGDP*PERCAPITA-1980TO2002andpurchasingpowerparityonindividuallevelevenfurtherUSDthousandsGDP/capitaGDP/capitaestimatesestimatessubjecttowidesubjecttowidevariation(USDvariation(USD1.000-2.500)1.000-2.500)-70%-70%*BasedonaGDPofUSD30billionandapopulationof24millionSource:
EIUcountryprofileIraqJordanIranIraqSaudiArabiaSyria*ESTIMATECOMPARISONOFGDPPERCAPITA-2002IraqscurrentGDPpercapitaiscomparabletoSyriaandIranUSDthousandsSource:
EIUcountrydataExternaldebt$bnIraqSyriaJordanIran230-485230-48510109191113113%ofGPD60-130MaincausesofMaincausesofuncertaintyareuncertaintyareAccruedinterestAccruedinterest“Assistance”“Assistance”fundsinIran-fundsinIran-IraqwarIraqwarClaimsClaimsfollowingGulffollowingGulfwar1991war1991ESTIMATECOMPARISONOFEXTERNALLIABILITIES-2001IraqhassignificantliabilitiesandcanbeconsideredbankruptAGENDAOverviewIraqEconomicscenariosforIraqRecentdevelopmentsSource:
McKinsey“Goodstandard”11Assumesthenon-oilsectorsoftheIraqieconomygrowsmodestlyataCAGRof3-5%overthenext10years(overallGDPgrowthincl.oil9-11%)“BestinClass”22Assumesthenon-oilpartofthetheIraqieconomygrowsstronglyataCAGRof7-9%overthenext10years(overallGDPgrowthincl.oil11-13%)“Distinctive”33Assumesthenon-oilsectorsoftheIraqieconomygrowsaggressivelyataCAGR12-15%overthenext10years(overallGDPgrowthincl.oil13-15%)ESTIMATEFORDISCUSSIONTHREEDEVELOPMENTSCENARIOSIraqsIntheWorldClassscenarioIraqiGDPpercapitacouldreach4,000USDby2013Non-oilSectorsOilproductionlevel2008Oilproductionlevel20134-5millionbarrelsperday6-7millionbarrelsperdayOilSector+*)Populationin2003=24million,2008=29million,2013=33millionSource:
McKinseyGDPdevelopment2003-2013(inbnUSD)GDPpercapita*2003-2013(in000USD)ESTIMATEFOR