央行的革命.docx

央行的革命.docx

《央行的革命.docx》由会员分享，可在线阅读，更多相关《央行的革命.docx（13页珍藏版）》请在冰豆网上搜索。

央行的革命

Specialreport:

Therevolutionincentralbanking

"Iwouldsaywedidnotdiscussthisoption,"TrichettoldanewsconferenceafterameetingoftheECB'sGoverningCouncil.Fourdayslater,theECBannouncedthatitwouldstartbuyingbonds.

Trichet'sU-turnwaspartofanemergencypackagewitheurozoneleaderstostaveoffacrisisofconfidenceinthesinglecurrency.Byreachingforits"nuclearoption",theECBhadalsohelpedrewritethemanualofmoderncentralbanking.

That'shappenedalotoverthepastthreeyears.Sincetheearlydaysofthefinancialcrisisin2008,theEuropeanCentralBank,theU.S.FederalReserveandtheBankofEnglandhaveallbeenforcedtoadoptpoliciesthatjustafewyearsagotheywouldhavedismissedaspreposterous.AndtheBankofJapanrespondedtotheSendaiearthquakeandtsunamibydoublingitsownasset-purchaseprogramme,tokeepthebankingsystemoftheworld'sthird-largesteconomyonanevenkeel.

Forageneration,theacceptedorthodoxyhasbeentofocusontaminginflation.Financialstabilityhastakensomethingofabackseat.Now,whethermandatedtodosoornot,westerncentralbankshaveboughtupsovereigndebttosustainthefinancialsystem,printedmoneybythetruckloadtostimulatetheireconomies,sacrificedsomeoftheirindependencetocoordinatemonetarypolicymorecloselywithfiscaldecisions,andcontemplatednewwaysofpreventingassetbubbles.Some--suchasBankofEnglandGovernorMervynKing--havejoinedwiderpoliticalprotestsatcommercialbanksthatarestillbehavingasiftheyare"toobigtofail",andasifbeingbailedoutisjustahazardofbusiness.

Inthemeasuredworldofcentralbanking,itamountstonothingshortofarevolution.OtmarIssing,oneoftheeuro'sfoundingfathersandacareer-longmonetaristhawk,toldReutersthatinbuyinggovernmentbondstheECBhad"crossedtheRubicon".ThequestionnowfortheECB--andforitscounterpartsinBritain,theUnitedStatesandelsewhere--iswhatthey'llfindontheotherside.

EXTRAORDINARYCIRCUMSTANCES

DonKohn,aformervice-chairmanoftheFederalReserve,realizedcentralbankingwaschangingforeverataroutinemeetingofhispeersinBasel,Switzerland,inMarch2008.TheshockwavesfromtheU.S.subprimemortgagemeltdownhadbegunrockingbanksaroundtheworldandKohn,a38-yearveteranoftheU.S.centralbank,listenedasonespeakerafteranotherdescribedthefast-deterioratingeconomicconditions.

"Itwasterrible,"Kohnsaid."Oneofthepeopleatthemeetingusedthephrase,'It'stimetothinkabouttheunthinkable'."

KohnleftthemeetingearlytoreturntoWashington,butthelinestuckinhishead.HewoulduseitafewdayslatertojustifyhissupportforaFederalReservedecisiontospend$29billiontohelpJ.P.MorganbuyinvestmentbankBearStearns,whichwasteeteringontheedgeofbankruptcy.

Thatfinancialmeltdowncausedacreditcrunchthattriggeredasevererecessionand,incountriessuchasGreece,asovereigndebtcrisis.Afterslashinginterestratespracticallytozero,centralbanksdesperatetopreventanewglobaldepressionhadnochoicebuttoexpandthevolumeofcredit,ratherthanitsprice,byreachingforthemoney-printingsolutionknownas"QuantitativeEasing"（QE）.Intheeyesofcritics,FederalReserveChairmanBenBernankewaslivinguptohisnicknameof"HelicopterBen"--areferencetoaspeechthathegavein2002inwhichhetookaleafoutofthebookoftherenownedmonetaristeconomistMiltonFriedmanandarguedthatthegovernmentultimatelyhadthecapacitytoquashdeflationsimplybyprintingmoneyanddroppingitfromhelicopters.

Untilthatpoint,theFedwasalenderoflastresortfordeposit-takingbanks.ByinvokingobscurelegislationfromtheGreatDepression,italsobecameabackstopforpracticallyanyinstitutionwhosecollapsecouldthreatenthefinancialsystem.KohnandothersattheBearStearnsmeetinghadjustdonetheunthinkable.

"Whenthesecretaryofthe（Fed）Boardwasreadingofftheproposals...myheartwasracing,"RandallKroszner,aFedgovernoratthetime,saysofthedecision.

Anacademiceconomistfromtheconservative,freemarket-orientedUniversityofChicago,Krosznerwasinstinctivelyagainstintervention.Atthesametime,heknewthatadecisionbytheFedtostayabovethefraywouldtriggerfinancialpanic.BeforethemeetingKrosznerhadchattedwithBernanke,anotherscholarofeconomichistory,aboutahistoricparallelinwhichfinancierJ.P.Morgan--theperson,notthecompany--optedagainststeppingintosavetheKnickerbockerTrust,precipitatingafinancialpanicinthefirstdecadeofthe20thcentury.

"Icouldn'tbelievethatwewerefacedwiththesequestions,andIcouldn'tbelievethatIcouldsupportthem,"KrosznertoldReutersinFebruary."Intheseextraordinarycircumstances,itwasveryriskytojustsayno."

Bythetimethe$600billionsecondroundofquantitativeeasingwrapsupinJune,thecentralbankwillhavespentastaggering$2.3trillion--morethan15percentofGDP--buyingbonds.Ithasalsocreatednewlendingwindowstochannelfundstofinancialinstitutionsandinvestorsandexpandeditsfinancialsafetynetforeverythingfrommoneymarketmutualfundstoasset-backedsecuritiesandcommercialpaper.TheFedarguesthatitsloanshavebeenrepaidwithoutanycosttotaxpayers,andthatthebeginningofarecoveryintheU.S.economyandthefadingofthethreatofdeflation,whichgnawedatBernanke,justifyitsboldimprovisation.

Butsomeexperts,includinganumberofFedofficialsthemselves,believethecentralbankispayingabigprice.SomecriticssaytheFed'sopen-endedprovisionofnext-to-freemoneyisencouragingmorerecklessrisk-takingbybanksandspeculators.OtherssaytheFedhasexceededitsremitandencroachedontheturfofpoliticians.SomeRepublicans,inparticular,wanttocurtailtheFed'spowers.

TheUnitedStateshasnotbeenalone.InBritain,theBankofEnglandhasrunitsownprogrammeofquantitativeeasing,spending200billionpounds（about14percentofGDP）mostlyonUKgovernmentsecurities,andhasintroducedaschemeforfinancialinstitutionstoswapmortgage-backedsecuritiesforUKTreasurybills.TheECBtookthreemainsteps:

adjustingitsmoneymarketoperationstoofferunlimitedamountsoffunds,loweringstandardsonthecollateralitacceptsinsuchoperations,andbuyingbonds.Thebondbuying,thoughamountingto1.5percentofeurozoneGDP,islessradicalthantheFed'sbecausethebankabsorbsbackthemoneythatitspurchasesrelease.Butitsinitiativeisstillhighlycontroversial.

Issing,theECB'schiefeconomistfrom1998to2006,callsthebond-buyingdangerous.Buthealsoconcedesthattheproblemsofthepastfewyearshaverequiredextrememeasures."Itisdifficulttojustifywithinthecontextoftheindependenceofthecentralbank,"saysIssing."But,ontheotherhand,theECBwastheonlyactorwhocouldmasterthesituation.Whatmattersnowisthatitfinalizesthisprogrammeandgetsout."

BLOWINGUPTHEORTHODOXY

Centralbankshavehistoricallyoftenbeensubordinatedtogovernments,butthehighinflationandslowgrowththatfollowedtheoilpriceshocksofthe1970susheredinarelativelysimpleorthodoxy:

theirgoalshouldbetokeepinflationincheck.Maintainingaslowandsteadypaceofpricerisesbecametheoverridingaimofcentralbankpolicy,andindependencefrompoliticalpressurescametobeseenasapre-requisiteforachievingthis.StartingwithNewZealandin1989,centralbanksinmorethan50countriesadoptedexplicit,publictargetsforinflation.

历史上央行总是从属于政府。

70年代石油危机导致了高通胀和低增长形成了各国央行的一个信条：

必须把通胀控制住。

自1989年新西兰起，50多个国家的中央银行都明确将通胀作为政策目标。

但是这种政策取向有其缺陷：

一是没有采取有效措施粉碎资产泡沫，二是过度注重通胀使得他们对银行中的危险倾向视而不见。

WesterngovernmentsclaimedthiswasresponsiblefortheGreatModeration,atwo-decadeperiodofrelativelystablegrowthindevelopedeconomies.Itstillhasmanyproponents,butthecreditcrisishasmadeamockeryofthatoverridingsimplicity,exposingseriousflawsinhowcentralbanksdefinedtheirmissionandoperated.Oneflaw:

theydidlittletopreventthebuild-upoftheassetbubblesthattriggeredthefinancialcrisis,suchastheboominU.S.subprimemortgages.Another:

theobsessionwithinflationblindedthemtodangeroustrendsinbanking.Afterall,whatisthepointofkeepinginflationlowiflaxlendingandfecklessfinancialsupervisionthreatentotiptheeconomyintotheabyss?

"TheproblemwasnotthattheFedlackedinstructionstoavoidacrisis,"saysJamesHamilton,aprofessorofeconomicsattheUniversityofCalifornia,SanDiegoandvisitingscholaratthecentralbankonmultipleoccasions."TheproblemwasthattheFedlackedtheforesighttoseethecrisisdeveloping."

FedChairmanBernankedoubtscentralbankscanknowforsurethatanassetbubblehasformeduntilaftertheevent,andfeelsmonetarypolicyistoobluntatooltoarrestanyworrisomedevelopments.AtthesametimeBernanke,formervice-chairmanKohnandothersagreethatthecentralbankmightbeabletoemploybroadertoolstopreventassetpricesfromgettingtoofrothy.Forexample,theFedregulatesmarginrequirementsforbuyingequitieswithborrowedfunds;itcouldusethesetoreininagallopingstockmarket.

"Thesimplicitiesofextremeinflationtargeting--whichsaidifyoumeetyourinflationtargetandkeepinflationstabletherestoftheeconomywouldlookafteritself--havebeenblownapart,"SirJohnGieve,whowasdeputygovernorattheBankofEnglandfrom2006to2009,toldReuters."TheBank'sobjectiveshavebecomealotmorecomplicated.So