发展经济学developmenteconomics.docx

发展经济学developmenteconomics.docx

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发展经济学developmenteconomics

RobertFogel’sforecastingChineseeconomyin2040

发展经济学developmenteconomics

讲课人：

李实

本课程的结构

1．发展经济学研究范畴、方法和历史演变

1．1研究范畴

1．2发展的测度

1．3研究方法

1．4历史演变

2．发展与增长理论

2．1增长与发展的差异

2．2增长理论：

Harrod-Dmarmodel;Solowmodel;convergence:

unconditionalandconditional.

2．3新增长理论

2．4人口增长与经济发展

2．5经济发展与人类发展

3．发展与收入分配

3．1收入分配的现实与理论

3．2收入决定机制与因素分析

3．3经济发展与收入差距

3．4经济增长与收入分配

3．5中国收入分配的变化趋势

4．发展中国家中的贫困问题

4．1绝对贫困与相对贫困

4．2贫困线的设定

4．3贫困标准的选择：

收入还是消费

4．4贫困的度量：

贫困发生率、贫困距和加权贫困距

4．5中国的贫困状态

5．发展中国家的劳动力市场与人力资本

5．1劳动剩余与两部门模型

5．2劳动力市场中工资决定机制

5．3劳动力市场中歧视问题

5．4中国农民工的工资与歧视状态的研究

5．5劳动力流动与城乡差距

5．6教育、健康与经济发展

6．土地与经济发展

6．1土地产权与租赁制度

6．2土地租赁合同理论

6．3土地产权制度理论

7．资本市场与经济发展

7．1信贷市场的不完善性

7．2农村信贷市场的功能与发展

7．3非正规信贷市场

7．4资本市场的制度与信贷市场的发展

8．保险与发展

8．1保险的功能

8．2完善的保险模型

8．3保险的局限性：

信息的不对称性

8．4保险的执行困难

9．国际贸易与经济发展

9．1国际贸易的基本理论

9．2比较优势理论

9．3世界贸易格局

9．4贸易政策和发展战略

10．制度与经济发展

10．1新制度经济学对经济发展的启示

10．2政府与市场的作用

10．3经济改革与经济发展

11．发展经济学的未来方向

11．1理论还是经验研究？

11．2中国经济发展的经验如何上升到一般的经济发展理论

1．发展经济学研究范畴、方法和历史演变

1.1研究对象（DE是什么）

Whatiseconomicdevelopment?

（1）Economicdevelopmentisthedevelopmentofeconomicwealthofcountriesorregionsforthewell-beingoftheirinhabitants.

（2）Theprocesswherebytherealpercapitaincomeofacountryincreasesoveralongperiodoftime,subjecttothestipulationsthatthenumberofpeoplebelowanabsolutepovertylinedoesnotincreaseandthatthedistributionofincomedoesnotbecomemoreunequal.

（3）Economicdevelopmentisameanstomakemasspeopleoutofpoverty.

Whatdevelopmenteconomicsstudies?

DEstudiestheeconomicstructureandbehaviorofthepoor（lessdeveloped）countries（Lewis,1984）.

DevelopmentEconomics（DE）studiestheeconomictransformationofdevelopingcountries（DebrajRay,1998）.

ThemajortaskofDEistoexplorethepossibilitiesofemancipationfrompovertyfordevelopingeconomies（YujiroHayami,2001）.

DEisaboutthebigissues:

howeconomiesandsocietiesgrowandchange（N.Stern,2001）.

Backward➙underdevelopment➙lessdevelopedcountries➙poorcountriesemergentcountries➙developingeconomies.

1.2研究内容（研究什么）

（1）理解现在世界各国发展的不平衡性。

（2）理解发展中国家现在的问题需要理解发达国家的发展经验，具有比较的意义。

（3）对前人的发展理论要加以研究。

（4）发展涉及到很多层面，

1.3发展的测度（measurementofdevelopment）

GDPorGDPpercapita是否是衡量发展程度的最好指标？

它在国际比较中的缺陷:

发展中国家GDP低估的问题；PPP方法来修正GDP；人类发展指数（HDI）的意义和应用。

China’rankofHDIintheworld,1970-2010

1.4研究方法

（1）理论研究与经验研究（theoreticalandempiricalapproach）

（2）发展微观经济学与发展宏观经济学（developmentmicroeconomicsanddevelopmentmacroeconomics）

（3）纯粹的经济分析还是多学科研究

1.5历史演变

（1）古典经济学是当时的发展经济学

（2）在20世纪40年代后期，现代发展经济学形成。

Capitalaccumulation,asthenecessaryrequirement,wasthecentralfocusofthemodels.TheHarrod-Domarequation,althoughoriginallyformulatedforconditionsoffullgrowthinanindustrialeconomy,wasappliedtoestimatecapitalrequirementsindevelopingcountries.

Otherearlymodelsofdevelopmentstrategyalsofeaturedcapital

accumulation:

Rostow's"stagesofgrowth,"

1.Traditionalsociety

2.Preconditionsfortake-off

3.Take-off

4.Drivetomaturity

5.AgeofHighmassconsumption

Nurkse's"balancedgrowth,"

Thetheoryhypothesesthatthegovernmentofanyunderdevelopedcountryneedstomakelargeinvestmentsinanumberofindustriessimultaneously.Thiswouldconsequentlyenlargethemarketsizeandprovideanincentivefortheprivatesectortoinvest.

Rosenstein-Rodan'sexternaleconomiesand"bigpush,"

Thistheoryisaninvestmenttheorywhichstressestheconditionsoftake-off.Theargumentationisquitesimilartothebalancedgrowththeorybutemphasisisputontheneedforabigpush.Theinvestmentsshouldbeofarelativelyhighminimuminordertoreapthebenefitsofexternaleconomies.Onlyinvestmentsinbigcomplexeswillresultinsocialbenefitsexceedingsocialcosts.Highpriorityisgiventoinfrastruc-turaldevelopmentandindustry,andthisemphasiswillleadtogovernmentaldevelopmentplanningandinfluence.

Lewis'sunlimitedsupplyoflaboranddual-sectormodel

Theprocessofeconomicgrowthisinextricablylinkedtothegrowthofcapitalistsurplus,thatisaslongasthethecapitalistsurplusincreases,thenationalincomealsoincreasesraisingthegrowthoftheeconomy.Theincreaseincapitalistsurplusislinkedtotheuseofmoreandmorelaborwhichisassumedtobeinsurplusincaseofthismodel.Thisprocessofcapitalaccumulationdoescometoanendatsomepoint.Thispointiswherecapitalaccumulationcatchesupwithpopulationsothatthereisnolongeranysurpluslaborleft.

Prebisch-Myrdal-Singerhypothesesabouttermsoftradeandimportsubstitution

Thethesispostulatesthattermsoftrade,betweenprimaryproductsandmanufacturedgoods,deteriorateintime.Countriesthatexportcommodities（developingcountries）intimewouldimportfewermanufacturedgoodsrelativetoagivenlevelofexports.

Leibenstein's"criticalminimumeffort"thesis,

Criticalminimumefforttheoryisoneofthebalancedgrowththeories.Ittalksabouthowaminimumamountofpushisrequiredbyaneconomyforittobesetonthepathofdevelopment.Thispushcanbeintheformofinvestments.The"minimum"amountofeffortthatisrequiredis"critical"fortheeconomytomovetowardsdevelopmenthencethistheoryiscalledcriticalminimumeffort.Becauseofthehighpopulationinunderdevelopedcountriesthecapitalaccumulationandlaboursupplyarenotsufficienttoincreasethepercapitaincome.

Chenery's"two-gapmodel."

Two-gapmodel（Two-gapModel）,isthedevelopingcountriestoachievethesavingsgapandforeignexchangegapsinthetheoryoftheequilibriummodel.Themodelisthroughtheuseofexternalresourcesindevelopingcountries,toplaytheroleofgovernmentinthesametime,adjustmentofdomesticeconomicstructuretoadapttotheintroductionofexternalresources.Itreflectstheintroductionofexternalresourcesindevelopingcountries,foreasingthescarcityofdomesticresourcesisimportant.Two-gapmodelofthebasicequation:

I-S=M-XI-Sisthedifferencebetweeninvestmentandsavings,knownasthesavingsgapM-Xisthedifferencebetweenimportsandexports,knownastheforeignexchangegapadjustedforthepurposeofeachvariableistobalancetheequation.

A.Hirschman,StrategyofEconomicDevelopment（1958）.Unbalancedgrowth

Contrarytothetheoryofbalancedgrowth,inHirschman'sopinion,therealbottleneckisnottheshortageofcapital,butlackofentrepreneurialabilities.Potentialentrepreneursarehinderedintheirdecision-makingbyinstitutionalfactors:

eithergroupconsiderationsplaya-greatroleandhinderthepotentialentrepreneur,orentrepreneursaimatpersonalgainsatthecostofothersandarethusequallydetrimentaltodevelopment.Inviewofthelackofenterpreneurialabilitiesthereisaneedforamechanismofincentiveandpressurewhichwillautomaticallyresultintherequireddecisions.AccordingtoHirschman,notabalancedgrowthshouldbeaimedat,butratherexistingimbalances—whosesymptomsareprofitandlosses—mustbemaintained.Investmentsshouldnotbespreadevenlybutconcentratedinsuchprojectsinwhichtheycauseadditionalinvestmentsbecauseoftheirbackwardandforwardlinkageswithoutbeingtoodemandingonentrepreneurialabilities.Manufacturingindustriesandimportsubstitutionsarerelevantexamples.Thesefirstinvestmentsinitiatefurtherinvestmentswhicharemadebylessqualifiedentrepreneurs.Thus,thestrategyovercomesthebottleneckofentrepreneurialability.Thetheorygivesnohintsastohowtheattitudeofentrepreneursandtheirinstitutionalinfluencewillbechangedintime.

P.Rosenstein-Roden,‘ProblemsofIndustrializationofEasternandSoutheasternEurope,”EconomicJournal（June-September,1943）.H.Leibenstein,Economicbackwardnessandeconomicgrowth（1957）.R.Nelson,“Atheoryofthelow-levelequilibriumtrapinunderdevelopedeconomies,”AER（Dec.1956）.W.Rostow,Thestagesofeconomicgrowth（1960）.R.Nurkse,Problemsofcapitalformationinunderdevelopedcountries（1953）.

Structuralistanalysis:

rigidities,lags,shortageandsurpluses,lowelasticitiesofsupplyanddemand.

G.Myrdal.Economictheoryandunderdevelopedregions（1957）.R.Prebisch,“TheeconomicdevelopmentofLatinAmericaandItsprincipalproblems”,EconomicBulletinforLatinAmerica7（1950）.H.Singer,“Gainsandlossesfromtradeandinvestmentinunderdevelopedcountries,”AER（may1950）.

（3）在20世纪60年代后期至70年代初期，发展经济学更加注重贫困和收入分配。

增长的不平衡性，注重农村发展；人力资本的形成，对人力资源的研究；适用技术，而是最新技术的引进。

Furthermore,inthe1960stheinitialconcentrationonphysicalcapitalaccumulationwasgivingwaytotheconceptofinvestmentinhuman

capitalanditsimplicationsfordevelopment.Itwasincreasingly

recognizedthatdevelopmentdependedonproductivehumanagents

who,throughtheiracquisitionofknowledge,betterhealthandnutrition,

andincreaseinskills,couldraisetotalfactorproductivity.

（4）70年代至80年代，新古典经济学的重新崛起：

对政策导致的市场扭曲的批评，对非市场失灵的批评，对政府控制的批评，from“getpricesright”to“getpoliciesright”,市场、价格、激励成为主题。

内向型发展战略转向外向型（出口导向性）战略，价格稳定和控制通货膨胀成为首选目标，大力推进国有企业的私有化。

注意到发展中国家之间的差异性，总体增长模型被国别的微观化模型所取代，国别的研究和经验研究受到越来越多的重视，新古典经济学的基本原理被应用到发展中国家的政策研究。

老发展经济学家是不承认新古典经济学可以用于发展中国家，而新发展经济学家不仅认为新古典经济学可以用于发展中国家，而且认为发展经济学不能成为一个专门的学科。

Ifthefirstgenerationofdevelopmenteconomistswasvisionaryand

dedicatedtograndtheoriesandgeneralstrategies,thesecondgeneration

wasalmostmoralistic,dedicatedtoasomberrealismgroundedon

fundamentalprinciplesofneoclassicaleconomics.Harbergercouldsay

tothegovernmentsofdevelopingcountries,"Economicsisgoodfor

you"-andbyeconomics,hemeantneoclassicalanalysisasthebasis

forpolicymaking（Harberger1993）.

Onceitisrecognizedthatindivid