porter波特五力模型详解.docx

porter波特五力模型详解.docx

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porter波特五力模型详解

Porter'sFiveForces

AMODELFORINDUSTRYANALYSIS

Themodelofpurepetitionimpliesthatrisk-adjustedratesofreturnshouldbeconstantacrossfirmsandindustries.However,numerouseconomicstudieshaveaffirmedthatdifferentindustriescansustaindifferentlevelsofprofitability;partofthisdifferenceisexplainedbyindustrystructure.

MichaelPorterprovidedaframeworkthatmodelsanindustryasbeinginfluencedbyfiveforces.Thestrategicbusinessmanagerseekingtodevelopanedgeoverrivalfirmscanusethismodeltobetterunderstandtheindustrycontextinwhichthefirmoperates.

DiagramofPorter's5Forces

SUPPLIERPOWERSupplierconcentrationImportanceofvolumetosupplierDifferentiationofinputsImpactofinputsoncostordifferentiationSwitchingcostsoffirmsintheindustryPresenceofsubstituteinputsThreatofforwardintegrationCostrelativetototalpurchasesinindustry

BARRIERSTOENTRYAbsolutecostadvantagesProprietarylearningcurveAccesstoinputsGovernmentpolicyEconomiesofscaleCapitalrequirementsBrandidentitySwitchingcostsAccesstodistributionExpectedretaliationProprietaryproducts

THREATOFSUBSTITUTES-Switchingcosts-Buyerinclinationto substitute-Price-performance trade-offofsubstitutes

BUYERPOWERBargainingleverageBuyervolumeBuyerinformationBrandidentityPricesensitivityThreatofbackwardintegrationProductdifferentiationBuyerconcentrationvs.industrySubstitutesavailableBuyers'incentives

DEGREEOFRIVALRY-Exitbarriers-Industryconcentration-Fixedcosts/Valueadded-Industrygrowth-Intermittentovercapacity-Productdifferences-Switchingcosts-Brandidentity-Diversityofrivals-Corporatestakes

 I. Rivalry

Inthetraditionaleconomicmodel,petitionamongrivalfirmsdrivesprofitstozero.Butpetitionisnotperfectandfirmsarenotunsophisticatedpassivepricetakers.Rather,firmsstriveforapetitiveadvantageovertheirrivals.Theintensityofrivalryamongfirmsvariesacrossindustries,andstrategicanalystsareinterestedinthesedifferences.

Economistsmeasurerivalrybyindicatorsof industryconcentration.TheConcentrationRatio（CR）isonesuchmeasure.TheBureauofCensusperiodicallyreportstheCRformajorStandardIndustrialClassifications（SIC's）.TheCRindicatesthepercentofmarketshareheldbythefourlargestfirms（CR'sforthelargest8,25,and50firmsinanindustryalsoareavailable）.Ahighconcentrationratioindicatesthatahighconcentrationofmarketshareisheldbythelargestfirms-theindustryisconcentrated.Withonlyafewfirmsholdingalargemarketshare,thepetitivelandscapeislesspetitive（closertoamonopoly）.Alowconcentrationratioindicatesthattheindustryischaracterizedbymanyrivals,noneofwhichhasasignificantmarketshare.Thesefragmentedmarketsaresaidtobepetitive.Theconcentrationratioisnottheonlyavailablemeasure;thetrendistodefineindustriesintermsthatconveymoreinformationthandistributionofmarketshare.

Ifrivalryamongfirmsinanindustryislow,theindustryisconsideredtobedisciplined.Thisdisciplinemayresultfromtheindustry'shistoryofpetition,theroleofaleadingfirm,orinformalpliancewithagenerallyunderstoodcodeofconduct.Explicitcollusiongenerallyisillegalandnotanoption;inlow-rivalryindustriespetitivemovesmustbeconstrainedinformally.However,amaverickfirmseekingapetitiveadvantagecandisplacetheotherwisedisciplinedmarket.

Whenarivalactsinawaythatelicitsacounter-responsebyotherfirms,rivalryintensifies.Theintensityofrivalrymonlyisreferredtoasbeingcutthroat,intense,moderate,orweak,basedonthefirms'aggressivenessinattemptingtogainanadvantage.

Inpursuinganadvantageoveritsrivals,afirmcanchoosefromseveralpetitivemoves:

∙Changingprices-raisingorloweringpricestogainatemporaryadvantage.

∙Improvingproductdifferentiation-improvingfeatures,implementinginnovationsinthemanufacturingprocessandintheproductitself.

∙Creativelyusingchannelsofdistribution-usingverticalintegrationorusingadistributionchannelthatisnoveltotheindustry.Forexample,withhigh-endjewelrystoresreluctanttocarryitswatches,Timexmovedintodrugstoresandothernon-traditionaloutletsandcorneredthelowtomid-pricewatchmarket.

∙Exploitingrelationshipswithsuppliers-forexample,fromthe1950'stothe1970'sSears,RoebuckandCo.dominatedtheretailhouseholdappliancemarket.Searssethighqualitystandardsandrequiredsupplierstomeetitsdemandsforproductspecificationsandprice.

Theintensityofrivalryisinfluencedbythefollowingindustrycharacteristics:

1.Alargernumberoffirmsincreasesrivalrybecausemorefirmsmustpeteforthesamecustomersandresources.Therivalryintensifiesifthefirmshavesimilarmarketshare,leadingtoastruggleformarketleadership.

2.Slowmarketgrowthcausesfirmstofightformarketshare.Inagrowingmarket,firmsareabletoimproverevenuessimplybecauseoftheexpandingmarket.

3.Highfixedcostsresultinaneconomyofscaleeffectthatincreasesrivalry.Whentotalcostsaremostlyfixedcosts,thefirmmustproducenearcapacitytoattainthelowestunitcosts.Sincethefirmmustsellthislargequantityofproduct,highlevelsofproductionleadtoafightformarketshareandresultsinincreasedrivalry.

4.Highstoragecostsorhighlyperishableproductscauseaproducertosellgoodsassoonaspossible.Ifotherproducersareattemptingtounloadatthesametime,petitionforcustomersintensifies.

5.Lowswitchingcostsincreasesrivalry.Whenacustomercanfreelyswitchfromoneproducttoanotherthereisagreaterstruggletocapturecustomers.

6.Lowlevelsofproductdifferentiationisassociatedwithhigherlevelsofrivalry.Brandidentification,ontheotherhand,tendstoconstrainrivalry.

7.Strategicstakesarehighwhenafirmislosingmarketpositionorhaspotentialforgreatgains.Thisintensifiesrivalry.

8.Highexitbarriersplaceahighcostonabandoningtheproduct.Thefirmmustpete.Highexitbarrierscauseafirmtoremaininanindustry,evenwhentheventureisnotprofitable.Amonexitbarrierisassetspecificity.Whentheplantandequipmentrequiredformanufacturingaproductishighlyspecialized,theseassetscannoteasilybesoldtootherbuyersinanotherindustry.LittonIndustries'acquisitionofIngallsShipbuildingfacilitiesillustratesthisconcept.Littonwassuccessfulinthe1960'swithitscontractstobuildNavyships.ButwhentheVietnamwarended,defensespendingdeclinedandLittonsawasuddendeclineinitsearnings.Asthefirmrestructured,divestingfromtheshipbuildingplantwasnotfeasiblesincesuchalargeandhighlyspecializedinvestmentcouldnotbesoldeasily,andLittonwasforcedtostayinadecliningshipbuildingmarket.

9.Adiversityofrivalswithdifferentcultures,histories,andphilosophiesmakeanindustryunstable.Thereisgreaterpossibilityformavericksandformisjudgingrival'smoves.Rivalryisvolatileandcanbeintense.Thehospitalindustry,forexample,ispopulatedbyhospitalsthathistoricallyaremunityorcharitableinstitutions,byhospitalsthatareassociatedwithreligiousorganizationsoruniversities,andbyhospitalsthatarefor-profitenterprises.Thismixofphilosophiesaboutmissionhasleadoccasionallytofiercelocalstrugglesbyhospitalsoverwhowillgetexpensivediagnosticandtherapeuticservices.Atothertimes,localhospitalsarehighlycooperativewithoneanotheronissuessuchasmunitydisasterplanning.

10.IndustryShakeout. Agrowingmarketandthepotentialforhighprofitsinducesnewfirmstoenteramarketandincumbentfirmstoincreaseproduction.Apointisreachedwheretheindustrybeescrowdedwithpetitors,anddemandcannotsupportthenewentrantsandtheresultingincreasedsupply.Theindustrymaybeecrowdedifitsgrowthrateslowsandthemarketbeessaturated,creatingasituationofexcesscapacitywithtoomanygoodschasingtoofewbuyers.Ashakeoutensues,withintensepetition,pricewars,andpanyfailures.

BCGfounderBruceHendersongeneralizedthisobservationastheRuleofThreeandFour:

astablemarketwillnothavemorethanthreesignificantpetitors,andthelargestpetitorwillhavenomorethanfourtimesthemarketshareofthesmallest.Ifthisruleistrue,itimpliesthat:

oIfthereisalargernumberofpetitors,ashakeoutisinevitable

oSurvivingrivalswillhavetogrowfasterthanthemarket

oEventualloserswillhaveanegativecashflowiftheyattempttogrow

oAllexceptthetwolargestrivalswillbelosers

oThedefinitionofwhatconstitutesthe"market"isstrategicallyimportant.

Whateverthemeritsofthisruleforstablemarkets,itisclearthatmarketstabilityandchangesinsupplyanddemandaffectrivalry.Cyclicaldemandtendstocreatecutthroatpetition.Thisistrueinthedisposablediaperindustryinwhichdemandfluctuateswithbirthrates,andinthegreetingcardindustryinwhichtherearemorepredictablebusinesscycles.

II.ThreatOfSubstitutes

InPorter'smodel,substituteproductsrefertoproductsinotherindustries.Totheeconomist,athreatofsubstitutesexistswhenaproduct'sdemandisaffectedbythepricechangeofasubstituteproduct.Aproduct'spriceelasticityisaffectedbysubstituteproducts-asmoresubstitutesbeeavailable,thedemandbeesmoreelasticsincecustomershavemorealternatives.Aclosesubstituteproductconstrainstheabilityoffirmsinanindustrytoraiseprices.

ThepetitionengenderedbyaThreatofSubstituteesfromproductsoutsidetheindustry.Thepriceofaluminumbeveragecan