产业结构变迁与测量全要素生产率增长外文翻译.docx

产业结构变迁与测量全要素生产率增长外文翻译.docx

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产业结构变迁与测量全要素生产率增长外文翻译

产业结构变迁与测量全要素生产率增长外文翻译

本科毕业论文外文翻译

外文题目:

IndustrialStructureChangesandtheMeasurement

ofTotalFactorProductivityGrowth:

TheKrugman-Kim-Lau-YoungHypothesis出处:

Academiaeconomicpapers

作者:

Chi-YuanLiang

原文:

Keywords:

Totalfactorproductivity,Economicgrowth,Industrialstructurechanges,

Industrialpolicy,Taiwan,NIEs

JELclassification:

D24,O00,O11,O14,O40,O47,O49

ABSTRACT

Byconsideringtheeffectofindustrialstructuralchange,thispaperprovidesanewmethodologytomeasurethetotalfactorproductivityTFPofaneconomy.Themajorconclusionsareasfollows:

1IgnoringtheeffectofindustrialstructuralchangesunderestimatedtheTFPgrowthofthewholeeconomyofTaiwanby23.23percentfrom1961?

1980andoverestimatedtheTFPgrowthby23.94percentfrom1980?

1999.ItisthereforeimportanttoconsidertheeffectofindustrialstructuralchangestomeasuretheTFPgrowthcorrectly.2TheKrugman-Kim-Lau-Young“input-drivengrowth”hypothesisfortheNIEsiswithoutbasis,asdemonstratednotonlyinthisstudybutthatofLiang2002andYoung1994b.3Thefactorsthatexplaintheeffectofindustrialstructuralchangesfrom1970?

1999includegovernmentindustryandliberalizationpolicies.Moreover,thegovernmentplaysanimportantroleinpromotingsavingandinvestment.TheseconclusionsdifferwiththeargumentofferedbyKrugman1994ontheuselessnessofmacroandindustrypoliciesintheeconomicdevelopmentoftheNICs.

INTRODUCTION

BasinghisargumentontheempiricalresultsofferedbyKimandLau1994,Lau1995andYoung1994a,1994b,Krugman1994maintainedthatthesecretoftheeconomicmiracleinthefourNewlyIndustrializingEconomiesNIEs,i.e.Singapore,HongKong,Korea,andTaiwan,overthepastthreedecadeswasthe“input-drivengrowth.”Inotherwords,ithadlittletodowithTFPortechnicalchange,andmuchtodowiththerapidincreaseinfactorinputs.Hence,theeconomicmiraclecouldnotbesustainedowingtothelawofdiminishingreturns.Hereafter,werefertothisastheKrugman-Kim-Lau-YounghypothesisThepublicationofKrugman1994ignitedahotdebateamongdevelopmenteconomistsbecauseKrugman’sviewseemstobeverycounter-intuitive.AsFelipe1999aptlystated:

Itwaswidelybelievedthat.thehigh-performingAsianeconomieswerepartlyduetothecatch-upphenomenon,whichcouldbeattributedtothehighrateofthetechnologychangemadebythediffusionoftechnologyfromthemoreadvancedcountries.

AfterthepublicationbyKrugman1994,accordingtothelatestsurveydonebyFelipe2006,morethan70researchfindingswerepublishedandtookissuewiththeEastAsiantotalfactorproductivitygrowthhypothesis.ThecriticsofKrugman-Kim-Lau-YounghypothesismainlyfocusonthemethodologicalproblemandtheuselessnessofmacroandindustrypoliciestakenbyNIEs.TheexamplesofcritiquesonmethodologicalproblemsincludeNelsonandPack1999,Krugeretal.2000,Hsieh2002,Liang2002,LipseyandCarlaw2004,etc.

NelsonandPack1999andLipseyandCarlaw2004areskepticalonTFPmeasurementbyusingthegrowthaccountingtechnique.Krugeretal.2000employtheDataEnvelopmentAnalysisDEAmethodtomeasurerelativeefficiencychangeinsteadoftotalfactorproductivity.Employingadualapproach,Hsieh2002arguesthattheTFPgrowthratesforSingapore,Korea,HongKongandTaiwanaregreaterthanthecorrespondingratesthatYoung1994bobtained.Liang2001alsofoundasimilarresultforTaiwan.

ThecriticsoftheKrugman-Kim-Lau-YounghypothesisfromtheviewpointoftheuselessnessofmacroandindustrypoliciestakenbytheNIEsincludeLiang1995,Stiglitz2001,Liang2002andFelipe2006.

AccordingtoLiang2002,theapproachesemployedbyKimandLau1994andYoung1994a,1994bdiffer.KimandLau1994usetime-seriesandcross-sectionalpoolingdatatoestablishaninternationalproductionfunction.Young1994aperformsacross-sectionalregressionbasedonthegrowthofoutputperworkeronaconstantplusthegrowthofcapitalperworkerduring1970?

1985inordertomeasuretheresidualswhichhetreatsasTFPforatotalofsixty-sixcountries.AsYoung1994apointsout,“Thisprocedureisfraughtwitherror.Inparticular,sincetechnicalchangeinducescapitalaccumulation,thecoefficientforcapitalperworkerwilltendtooverstatetheelasticityofoutputwithrespecttothecapitalinput.”Inaddition,Young1994busesa“growthaccounting”approach,whichissimilartothatadoptedbyGollopandJorgenson1980andJorgensonetal.1987.

Themethodsofdatacompilationalsovary.KimandLau1994andYoung1994adonottakeintoconsiderationtheheterogeneouscharacteristicsofthefactorinputs.However,followingJorgensonandhisassociatesChristensenandJorgenson,1970;GollopandJorgenson,1980;Jorgensonetal.,1987,Young1994btakesintoaccounttheheterogeneouscharacteristicsoftheinputs,whichmighthelpavoidsomeofthemeasurementerrorsinrelationtoTFPchanges.ItisforthisreasonthatwefocusmainlyonYoung1994binthisstudy.

Moreover,Young1994b,justasGollopandJorgenson1980,Jorgensonetal.1987,ignorestheheterogeneouscharacteristicsofinputsbysector.Forexample,thenatureoflaborinputisdifferentforvariouscharacteristictypes,suchassex,age,educationetc.Asforcapitalinput,thenatureofbuildings,machinery,transportationequipment,landandinventoriesalsovary.Foraccuratemeasurementofthecontributionoffactorinputandchangesinproductivitytothegrowthofoutput,everyfactorinputshouldbefurtherdecomposedbeforebeingsummedbyusinganappropriateweight,suchasthetranslogindex.Thequalitychangesininputscausedbythechangesinindustrialstructureorthe“inputreallocationeffect”shouldbetakenintoaccountincalculatingtheTFPfortheeconomyasawhole.ThispaperthereforeemploystheapproachadoptedbyJorgensonandLiang1995,LiangandJorgenson1999andLiang2002byincorporatingthequalitychangesininputscausedbychangesinindustrialstructure,andtreatingthemasafurtherheterogeneouscharacteristicofinputsintheTFPcalculation.

Inaddition,asJorgensonandGriliches1967correctlypointedout,tomaintaintheoreticalconsistencyandavoidtheaggregationerror,theoutputshouldalsobedecomposedbeforebeingsummedupbyusingthetranslogindex.Ifthisoutputaggregationtechniqueistobeappliedtothewholeeconomy,thequalitychangesinoutputwithrespecttochangesintheindustrialstructure,orthe“outputreallocationeffect,”shouldalsobeconsidered.However,fewempiricalstudies,includingYoung1994b,LiangandJorgenson1999andLiang2002,haveactuallyperformedthisexerciseinmeasuringtheTFPgrowthforthewholeeconomyintheNIEs.

Tosumup,boththe“inputreallocationeffect”and“outputreallocationeffect”causedbychangesintheindustrialstructureshouldbeincorporatedintothemeasurementofTFPgrowthforthewholeeconomy.

Consequently,theobjectiveofthispaperistoincorporatethechangesinindustrialstructureintothemeasurementofTFPgrowthforaneconomy.ToreevaluatetheKrugman-Kim-Lau-Younghypothesis,acomparisonwithYoung1994bbothinmethodanddataisalsoconducted.Forthiscomparison,andalsoasanexample,weemploythedataforTaiwan,oneofthefourNIEs,duringthe1961?

1999periods.Finally,policyimplicationsfromTaiwan’sexperiencearedrawnfromthefinding.

Theremainderofthispaperisorganizedasfollows.Section2presentsthemethodology,Section3thecompilationofthedata,Section4theempiricalresults,andSection5theconclusionsandsuggestionsforfurtherresearch.

CONCLUSIONSANDIMPLICATIONS

ThispaperprovidesanewmethodologytomeasuretheTFPofaneconomy.Basedondetailedsector-leveldata,thisstudymeasurestheTFPofthewholeeconomyofTaiwanfrom1961?

1999byconsideringtheeffectofindustrialstructurechange.Themajorconclusionsarethefollowings.

First,theTFPgrowthwithindustrialstructurechangesadjustmentregistered2.03percentperannumand2.37percentperannumduring1961?

1980and1980?

1999respectively.

Incontrast,theTFPgrowthwithoutindustrialstructuralchangesadjustmentwas1.55percentand2.94percentperannum.Inotherwords,ignoringtheeffectofindustrialstructuralchangesunderestimatedtheTFPgrowthofthewholeeconomyby23.23percentfrom1961?

1980,whileitoverestimatedTFPgrowthby23.94percentfrom1980?

1999.ItisthereforeimportanttoconsidertheeffectofindustrialstructuralchangestomeasureTFPgrowthcorrectly.TheTFPgrowthratedifferencerevealedbetweenthisstudyandYoung1994bduetomethodologyvariedfrom1.68percentagepoints1966?

1970to?

0.77percentpointduring1980?

1990.Thatduetodatadifferencerangesfrom0.65percentagepointduring1980?

1990to?

2.25percentagepointduring1966?

1970.ItisbelievedthatourdataaremoreaccuratethanthatpostedbyYoung1994a,1994b.

Second,duringthelasttwodecades1980?

1999,TFPwasthesecondmostimportantsourceofGDPgrowth,withacontributionratioof32.76percent.Thatislowerthanthecontributionofcapital45.88percent,buthigherthanthatoflabor21.35percent.TherelativecontributionratioofTFPtoGDPgrowthwas46.87percentduring1980?

1990accordingtothisstudy,whichwasgreaterthanthatofcapital38.45percentandlabor16.48percent.Bycontrast,accordingtoYoung1994b,therelativecontributionratioofTFPtoGDPgrowthwas41.25percent,whichwasalsogreaterthanthatofcapital28.56percentandlabor29.49percentduringthesameperiod.TheKrugman-Kim-Lau-Younghypothesis,whichindicatesthatthefastgrowthof