暴雨对济南市道路交通的影响分析.docx

暴雨对济南市道路交通的影响分析.docx

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暴雨对济南市道路交通的影响分析

暴雨对济南市道路交通的影响分析

设计单位济南大学资源与环境学院

设计人员马世杰杨艳青尹志远蒙玮张玥张爽

指导老师周保华教授

目　　录

引言·············································································································································································4

一、暴雨简介介··············································································································································································································································6

（一）科技名词定义························································································································································································································6

（二）暴雨的形成································································································································································································································7

（三）季节与地域分布····················································································································································································································8

（四）相关定义·························································································································································································9

二、济南市交通现状分析析······································································································································11

（一）济南市道路交通现状··································································································································································································11

1.济南市车辆现状···············································································································································································································13

2．济南市道路拥挤现状······································································································································································································14

3．汽车大幅增加····················································································································································································································15

（二）济南市道路交通存在诸多问题·················································································································································································17

三、暴雨对交通的影响·······················································································································································································································19

（一）济南市7.18特大暴雨洪水灾害的主要原因····················································································································································19

（二）济南地形分析·······················································································································································································································21

（三）济南历年降雨情况分析······························································································································································································23

（四）易堵路段及分析·················································································································································································································27

四、建议·························································································································································································································································31

（一）交通局颁布暴雨时的交通走向条例以合理规划车流·······························································································································31

（二）加强暴雨洪涝灾害研究以提高暴雨预报准确率··········································································································································32

（三）提高气象保障服务能力完善灾害应急响应系统·······································································································································32

（四）及时进行灾害评估··············································································································································································································33

（五）加强暴雨洪涝灾害防御的工程性措施································································································································································34

（六）加强市区排水设施建设提高雨水利用率·····················································································································································35

（七）增强暴雨洪涝灾害防御的公众意识····································································································································································36

（八）借鉴国外的先进经验··································································································································36

参考文献·································································································································································37

附表——调查问卷·················································································································································38

引言：

龙应台（台湾著名文化人及公共知识份子，台湾地区著名女作家）曾被人这样问道：

“如果闭着眼睛让天方夜谭的神毯带你飞到一个陌生的国度，睁开眼后,你将如何分辨这是个发达国家，还是个所谓的发展中国家”[1]。

她提到一个办法是“最好来一场倾盆大雨，足足下它三小时”。

“如果你撑着伞溜达了一阵，发觉裤脚虽湿却不肮脏，交通虽慢却不堵塞，街道虽滑却不积水，这大概就是个先进的发达国家。

而如果一场大雨使你全身泥泞，汽车轮子陷在路坑里，你发现路上积水盈尺，店家的茶壶、头梳漂到街心来，小孩在十字路口用锅子捞鱼，这大概就是个发展中国家。

”因为，“它或许有钱建造高楼大厦，却还没有心力去发展下水道；高楼大厦看得见，下水道看不见。

你要等一场大雨才能看出真面目来”[1]。

龙应台通过暴雨来看一个国家或城市的发展水平，却无意中点出了城市防灾减灾的一个显著特点，而济南“7·18”特大暴雨就不幸被言中，值得我们反思。

济南，位于山东省中西部，地处鲁中南低山丘陵与鲁西北冲积平原的交接带上，地势南高北低。

由于受太阳辐射、大气环流和地理环境的影响，属暖温带大陆性季风气候。

其主要气候特征是：

季风明显，四季分明；冬冷夏热，雨量集中。

夏季炎热，季平均温度在26℃左右，极端最高温度超过40℃，日最高气温≥40℃的酷热日数均出现在夏季。

夏季不仅炎热，且多降水，雨热同季。

夏季降水量全市各县区平均都在400毫米以上，全年60%的降水量集中在夏季，7月份降水日数平均在15天左右，日降水量≥50毫米的暴雨日数集中在7、8两月，占全年暴雨日数的70%。

2007年7月18日17时左右，济南市区遭遇超强特大暴雨，这次降水过程历时短、强度大。

降水从18日17:

00开始到20:

30前后减弱，市区1小时最大降水量达151mm，2小时最大降水量达167.5mm，3小时最大降水量达180mm。

突如其来的暴雨造成了济南市区低洼地区严重积水，部分地区受灾，大部分路段交通瘫痪，造成人员财产严重损失。

据统计，这次特大暴雨造成30多人死亡，170多人受伤，约33万群众受灾，倒塌房屋约1800间，市区内受损车辆约800辆，损坏市区道路约1.4万平方米,冲失井盖500余套，20多条线路停电，140多家企业进水受淹，市内交通一度处于瘫痪状态。

全市直接经济损失约13.2亿元[2]。

针对这一事件，作为资源与环境学院的学生，我们从济南的地形地势及气候特点入手，以济南7.18事件为切入点，主要就暴雨对济南交通的影响进行了研究。

一、暴雨简介

（一）科技名词定义

暴雨（torrentialrain）定义：

24小时降水量为50毫米或以上的强降雨。

由于各地降水和地形特点不同，所以各地暴雨洪涝的标准也有所不同。

特大暴雨是一种灾害性天气，往往造成洪涝灾害和严重的水土流失，导致工程失事、堤防溃决和农作物被淹等重大的经济损失。

特别是对于一些地势低洼、地形闭塞的地区，雨水不能迅速宣泄造成农田积水和土壤水分过度饱和，会造成更多的地质灾害。

暴雨（torrentialrain）是降水强度很大的雨。

雨势倾盆，一般指每小时降雨量16毫米以上，或连续12小时降雨量30毫米以上，或连续24小时降雨量50毫米以上的降水。

我国气象上规定，24小时降水量为50毫米或以上的雨称为“暴雨”。

按其降水强度大小又分为三个等级，即24小时降水量为50～99.9毫米称“暴雨”；100～250毫米以下为“大暴雨”；250毫米以上称“特大暴雨”。

就“7.18”事件，让我们这样想一下，当50毫米降雨均匀分布在24小时内，虽然是仍属于暴雨范畴，但其相当于每小时降雨量约为2.083毫米，对一个城市造成的伤害并不会很大。

但是，如果50毫米降水只在一小时内完成，给人的感觉将会是天塌地陷，非暴雨倾盆所能形容。

任何事情都是相对的存在，有其特定的背景，南方部分地区基本上把暴雨标准定为80毫米/24小时。

（二）暴雨的形成

暴雨形成的过程是相当复杂的，从宏观物理条件来说，产生暴雨的主要物理条件是充足的源源不断的水汽、强盛而持久的气流上升运动和大气层结构的不稳定。

大中小各种尺度的天气系统和下垫面特别是地形的有利组合可产生较大的暴雨。

引起中国大范围暴雨的天气系统主要有锋、气旋、切变线、低涡、槽、台风、东风波和热带辐合带等。

此外，在干旱与半干旱的局部地区热力性雷阵雨也可造成短历时、小面积的特大暴雨。

暴雨常常是从积雨云中落下的。

形成积雨云的条件是大气中要含有充足的水汽，并有强烈的上升运动，把水汽迅速向上输送，云内的水滴受上升运动的影响不断增大，直到上升气流托不住时，就急剧地降落到地面。

积雨云体积通常相当庞大，一块块的积雨云就是暴雨区中的降水单位，虽然每块单位水平范围只有1～20千米，但它们排列起来，可形成100～200千米宽的雨带。

一团团的积雨云就像一座座的高山峻岭，强烈发展时，从离地面0.4～1千米高处一直伸展到10千米以上的高空。

越往高空，温度越低，常达零下十几摄氏度，甚至更低，云上部的水滴就要结冰，人们在地面用肉眼看到云顶的丝缕状白带，正是高空的冰晶、雪花飞舞所致。

地面上是大雨倾盆的夏日，高空却是白雪纷飞的严冬。

（三）季节与地域分布

中国是多暴雨的国家，除西北个别省、区外，几乎都有暴雨出现。

冬季暴雨局限在华南沿海，4～6月间，华南地区暴雨频频发生。

6～7月间，长江中下游常有持续性暴雨出现，历时长、面积广、暴雨量也大。

7～8月是北方各省的主要暴雨季节，暴雨强度很大。

8～10月雨带又逐渐南撤。

夏秋之后，东海和南海台风暴雨十分活跃，台风暴雨的点雨量往往很大。

我国属于季风气候，从晚春到盛夏，北方冷空气且战且退。

冷暖空气频繁交汇，形成一场场暴雨。

我国大陆上主要雨带位置亦随季节由南向北推移。

华南（两广、闽、台）是我国暴雨出现最多的地区，从4至9月都是雨季。

6月下半月到7月上半月，通常为长江流域的梅雨期暴雨。

7月下旬雨带移至黄河以北，9月以后冬季风形成，雨带随之南撤。

由于受夏季风的影响，我国暴雨日及雨量的分布从东南向西北内陆减少，山地多于平原。

而且东南沿海岛屿与沿海地区暴雨日最多，越向西北越减少。

在西北高原每年平均只有不到一天的暴雨。

太行山、大别山、南岭、武夷山等东南面或东面的坡地，都是这些地区暴雨日的中心。

由于7月雨带移至黄河一段，而7～8月又是北方各省的主要暴雨季节，其暴雨强度非常大，因此北靠黄河的济南市必然会常年面对夏季的暴雨。

（四）相关定义

1.水灾

按照全国重大自然灾害综合研究组的定义，“平常所说的水灾一般是指河流泛滥而淹没土地、农田所引起的灾害；涝灾则指的是因长期大雨或暴雨而产生大量的积水和径流，淹没了低洼的土地所造成的溃水或内涝灾害。

由于水灾和涝灾往往同时发生，有时难以区别，所以常统称为洪涝。

由于水涝常与异常大量的降水密不可分，故又常称为雨涝”[3]。

所谓“水旱灾害”，当然是水过多或过寡对人类社会的影响。

单纯的暴雨、洪水、干旱，不论多么严重，如果发生在人迹罕见或较少地区，就谈不上任何“灾害”，而仅仅是某种自然现象。

同样时间长度的降水量或相同的降水强度，在不同的地区，对人类社会的影响可能完全不同。

以公共、私人财产损失为例，受灾地区的经济发展水平越高，单位面积财产密度越大，则经济损失值可能也相应越大[4]。

2.内涝

城市暴雨内涝是指由于强降水或连续性降水超过城市排水能力致使城市内产生积水灾害的现象。

内涝严重；湖泊蓄水容积减少，汛期湖面水位上升、易破圩造成灾害；围垦削减了湖泊的调蓄功能，都会导致洪涝灾害频繁发生

3.大气能见度

大气能见度（Visibility）是反映大气透明度的一个指标。

一般定义为具有正常视力的人在当时的天气条件下还能够看清楚目标轮廓的最大地面水平距离。

还有一种定义为目标的最后一些特征已经消失的最小距离。

在气象学中，能见度用气象光学视程表示。

气象光学视程是指白炽灯发出色温为2700K的平行光束的光通量，在大气中削弱至初始值的5%所通过的路径长度。

白天能见度是指视力正常（对比感阈为0.05）的人，在当时天气条件下，能够从天空背景中看到和辨认的目标物（黑色、大小适度）的最大水平距离，实际上也是气象光学视程。

夜间能见度是指：

⑴假定总体照明增加到正常白天水平，适当大小的黑色目标物能被看到和辨认出的最大水平距离。

⑵中等强度的发光体能被看到和识别的最大水平距离。

所谓“能见”，在白天是指能看到和辨认出目标物的轮廓和形体；在夜间是指能清楚看到目标灯的发光点。

凡是看不清目标物的轮廓，认不清其形体，或者所见目标灯的发光点模糊，灯光散乱，都不能算“能见”。

通常天气较好的情况下，大气能见度较高；但是当暴雨倾盆时，将会极大地影响能见的距离，此时，能见度的减小提高了车祸的发生率；因此，为降低车祸的发生，大部分车辆会减小车速，这也从另一方面造成了道路的堵塞。

二、济南市交通现状分析

（一）济南市道路交通现状

为进一步了解济南市的交通现状，我们就相关问题通过调查问卷的方式进行了调研分析。

【见附录】

（1）眼中的济南交通现状

调查问卷第一题：

您认为济南市的交通现状如何？

A、很好B、良好C、较差D、很差

通过对342名驾驶员和658名非驾驶员（占总人数的65.8%）市民调查，认为济南市目前交通状况不能让市民满意，问卷中认为道路交通状况良好的仅有43人（占4.30%），而认为较差或很差的有815人（占81.5%）。

市民对济南市道路交通状况的评价

为什么会有半数以上的市民认为济南市的交通现状较差呢？

对此，我们进行了进一步的调查与分析。

（2）造成济南交通现状的原因

调查问卷第二、三题针对困扰市民出行的因素和济南堵车现象的程度进行问卷调查。

结果显示，大部分市民认为困扰自己出行的因素为交通堵塞和路况不佳；而约半数以上市民认为济南市堵车现象比较比较严重。

济南堵车程度状况

通过调查问卷分析，我们总结出了济南市交通的相关情况。

1.济南市车辆现状

济南作为山东省省会，集政治、经济、文化中心于一身，现有人口603.35万人，其中市区人口360万，根据《济南市城市总体规划（2005年-2020年）》（建规函[2003]255号批准），2020年市区总人口将达到550万人。

与济南市人口数量的持续增长相对应的是机动车数量的快速增长，2002年到2006年增长机动车15.6万辆，且增长比例仍然呈逐年上升趋势。

济南市机动车