服务贸易的开放度与经济增长外文翻译.docx

服务贸易的开放度与经济增长外文翻译.docx

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服务贸易的开放度与经济增长外文翻译

服务贸易的开放度与经济增长外文翻译

外文翻译

原文

OpennessinServicesTradeandEconomicGrowth

MaterialSource:

EeonomiesLettersVolume92,IssueZ,2006,p.277一283Author:

ElKhouryAntoineandSavvides.Andrea

abstract

Thispaperexaminestherelationshipbetweenopennessinservicestradeandeconomicgrowth.Weestimateathresholdregressionmodeltotestwhetheropennessinservicestradehasadifferentimpactonlow-andhigh-incomecountries.Weconsideropennessinbothtelecommunicationandfinancialservices.Resultsconfirmtheexistenceofatwo-regimesplitwithlow-incomeeconomiesbenefitingfromgreateropennessintelecommunicationservicesandhigh-incomeeconomiesfromfinancialservicesopenness.

KeyWords:

Servicestrade,telecommunicationservices,financialservices,economicgrowth.

OpennessinServicesTradeandEconomicGrowth

1.Introduction

Thecostsandbenefitsofopennesstointernationaltradeforeconomicgrowthhavebeenstudiedextensively.Diversemeasuresofopennesstotradehavebeenusedreferringmainlytotradeincommoditiesandinclude,interalia,theshareofexports/importsinGDP,measuresoftheprevalenceoftariffs/quotasincommoditytrade,orgeneralqualitativeindicatorsofopenness.Studies,onthewhole,demonstratethepositiveeffectsofinternationaltradee.g.Dollar,1992;FrankelandRomer,1999;andSachsandWarner,1995thoughdissentingviewshavebeenvoicede.g.RodríguezandRodrik2001.

Todate,verylittlehasappearedonthegrowtheffectsofopennessinservicestrade.Thisshould,perhaps,notbesurprisinggiventhatservicesconstituteanewdimensioninregionalandmultilateraltradeagreements,especiallywithintheauspicesofrecentandproposedWTOtraderounds.TheviewthatgreateropennessinservicestradeisassociatedwithhighergrowthseemstohavetakenholdamongstsomepolicymakersrecentlyEmpiricalevidenceonthisissue,however,hasbeenscant.ArecentarticleinTheEconomist2004emphasizesthefactthatawell-establishedinfrastructureisnecessaryinorderforopennessinservicestradetohaveapositiveimpactongrowth.Thearticleisconcernedwhether“…ICTs[informationandcommunicationtechnologies]mighthavelessimpactonproductivityinpoorcountriesthaninrichcountries”and“…whetheracertainthresholdlevelofadoptionisrequiredbeforetheproductivitybenefitsofICTskickin.”Itquestionswhetherthebenefitsfromliberalizingtradeinservicesarethesameforlow-andhigh-incomecountries.

Theobjectiveofthispaperistwofold:

first,toaddtotheverylimitedevidenceontheeffectsofliberalizingtradeinservicesoneconomicgrowth;second,totestthehypothesisthatathresholdlevelofdevelopmentpercapitaincomeexistsintherelationshipbetweenservicestradeopennessandeconomicgrowth,andthecorollarythatthebenefitsfromservicetradeliberalizationdonotmaterializeuntilsuchathresholdisachievedWefocusontwoserviceindustries:

telecommunicationandfinancialservices.

TotesttheunderlyinghypothesisweusethethresholdregressionTRmodel,aneconometrictechniquethatselectsendogenouslyandtestssimultaneouslytheexistenceofathresholdlevelofpercapitaincome.

2.Thethresholdregressionmodelandopennessinservicestrade

Hansen’s2000TRmodelallowsforanendogenoussamplesplitHedevelopsasequentialsearchalgorithmtodeterminethevalueofthethresholdandaLagrangemultipliertestforitssignificance.Papageorgiou2002usestheTRmodelinthecontextofagrowthregressionandfindsthatinitialincomepercapitaisasignificantfirst-roundthresholdindicator.Insubsequentrounds,literacyandgeneralopennesstotradetheshareofexportsplusimportsinGDParealsosignificantthresholdindicators.

Inourmodel,thethresholdvariableisinitialincomepercapitaandtheunderlyinghypothesisisthattheimpactofservicetradeopennessoneconomicgrowthdependsonacountry’slevelofdevelopmentincomepercapitaWeestimatethefollowinggrowthregressionmodel:

gi?

XiOPtelOPfinlnGDP?

?

lnGDPigi?

?

XiOPtelOPfinlnGDPi?

lnGDPi

whereigistheaverageannualgrowthrateofpercapitaGDPforcountryi,Xiavectorofconditioningvariables,OPtelandOPfinmeasureopennessintelecommunicationandfinancialservicestrade,respectively,lnGDPiistheloginitiallevelofpercapitaincome,and,?

11,,?

15?

?

and?

21,,?

25?

?

arethethresholdlevelandparametervectorstobeestimated,respectively.

Thefocusofthisstudy,theindicesOPtelandOPfin,arefromMattoo,RathindranandSubramanian2001.Theyareconstructedtoreflectapolicy-basedmeasureofliberalizationofacountry’sservicessectors.Theyassumevaluesfrom1to9telecommunicationservicesand1to8financialserviceswithhighervaluesindicatinggreateropenness.Theconstructionofthetelecommunicationsindexwasbasedonmarketstructure,thedegreeofforeignownershipandtheexistenceofindependentregulators.Thefinancialopennessindexwasbasedonmarketstructure,foreignequity,andDailami’s2000capitalcontrolindexthattakesintoconsiderationthecodingofrules,regulationsandadministrativeproceduresthatcanaffectcapitalflows.Onevalueofeachindexisavailableforeachcountryreferringtoobservationsduringtheearly1990s.

Thedependentvariableistheaverageannualgrowthratebetween1990and2000toreflecttheavailabilityofthetwoindexesduringtheearly1990s.Thevectorofconditioningvariables,Xi,includes:

thegovernmentconsumption/GDPratio,laggedinvestmentrate,inflationrate,meanyearsoftotalschoolinginthepopulationabove15ameasureofhumancapitalandtheratioexportsplusimport/GDP.Thesevariableswereselectedasrepresentativeofconditioningvariablesinthegrowthliteraturee.g.Levineetal.,2000.DataforallthesevariablesarefromtheWorldDevelopmentIndicators,exceptformeanyearsofschoolingfromtheBarro-Leedatabase.Allconditioningvariablesaredecadalaverages.

3.Empiricalresults

ResultsareinTable1Thefirstfourcolumns1-4showleastsquaresestimateswithoutathreshold.Column1isourbasicgrowthspecification.Anissueofconcernisthatourtwoservicetradeindexesmaybecorrelatedwiththegeneraldegreeofopennessand,thus,mayproxyfortheeffectsofoveralltradeopenness.Forthisreason,thesecondspecificationcolumn2includesanindicatorofoveralltradeopennesstheratioofimportsplusexportstoGDP.Thethirdspecificationomitstheinvestmentratetoinvestigatethechannelsphysicalcapitalaccumulationorproductivityviawhichserviceopennessinfluencesgrowth.Thefinalspecificationcolumn4omitsboththeinvestmentrateandoveralltradeopennessTheestimatesshowthatgreateropennessinthetelecommunicationaswellasfinancialservicessectordoesnothaveasignificanteffectongrowth.Theconditioningvariableshavetheexpectedsignsbut,exceptforinvestmentinphysicalcapital,tradeopennessandgovernmentsizeinsomespecifications,areinsignificant.

Next,weemploytheTRmodel.ThebootstrappedLagrangemultiplierteststatisticswith1000replicationsaresignificantforallspecificationsp-values0.011,0.009,0.016and0.066.Therefore,incomepercapitasplitsthesamplesignificantly.Theleastsquaresestimateof?

?

?

isconsistentacrossspecifications:

?

?

$3310forspecifications1-3and$3150forspecification4.1Forthefirstthreespecificationsthethresholdleveldividesthesampleof60countriesintotwosubsamples23countriesbelowand37above;2forthefinalspecificationitdividesthesampleintoalower-income21andahigher-incomegroup39.

Columns1a-4ashowparameterestimatesforobservationsbelowthethresholdandcolumns1b-4bforobservationsabovethethresholdthatcorrespondtothefourspecifications1-4.ThefitoftheTRregressionsasrepresentedbyR2improvescomparedtoleastsquaresestimationForcountriesbelowthethresholdtherelationshipbetweenopennessintelecommunicationservicestradeandgrowthispositiveandhighlysignificant;thereisnoevidence,however,ofasignificantrelationshipbetweenopennessinfinancialservicesandgrowth.Forcountriesabovethethresholdtheresultsarereversed:

thereisevidenceofapositiveandintwospecificationssignificantrelationshipbetweenopennessinfinancialservicestradeandgrowth,butnosuchevidenceforopennessintelecommunicationservicestrade.3Overalltradeopennesshasapositiveandsignificantimpactongrowthforthehigh-incomegroupandalsoapositiveandmarginallysignificanteffectforthelow-incomegroupWhentheinvestmentratioisexcludedfromthecontrolvariablesinthefinaltwospecifications,themainresultconcerningtheestimatedcoefficientsforservicesopennessforthetwogroupsremainsvalid.Weinterpretthisasevidenceconsistentwithopennessinservicestradeinfluencingtherateofeconomicgrowthboththroughphysicalcapitalaccumulationandproductivitygrowth.Finally,incontrasttotheresultsforthecompletesample,wenoteevidencefavorabletoconditionalconvergenceforthetwogroupsofcountriesseparately,anobservationconsistentwiththenotionofconvergenceclubs.BecauseourresultsarebasedonthesamplesplitviatheTRmodel,wetestedtheirrobustnesstoalternativemethodsofsamplesplitting.Onealternativeistointroduceinteractiontermsbetweeninitialpercapitaincomeandthetwoindicesofopennessinservicestrade.Theparameterestimateswitht-statisticsinparenthesesforspecification2similarresultsholdtruefortheotherspecificationsare:

g0.029?

0.023GovernmentSize?

0.00094Inflation+0.00107HumanCapital

0.540.620.901.01

+0.0456InvestmentRate+0.00004