将软件模拟技术运用于供应链管理中外文翻译Word格式.docx

将软件模拟技术运用于供应链管理中外文翻译Word格式.docx

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VPInternationalOperations

SystemsModelingCorporation

Introduction:

Thispaperintendstodiscusstheuseofsimulationforthosecompaniescurrentlyintheprocessofevaluatingtheirsupplychaintogainperformanceimprovements（suchascustomerservice,costcutting,etc.）fortheiroperations.Thisdocumentdoesnotcoveringreatdetailfeaturesandapplicationsofthistechnology,ratheritfocusesonthebenefitsofusingsimulationasaneffectivetooltomanageandunderstandyoursupplychain.ThereissubstantialinformationavailablefromvendorsontheInternetonsupplychaintechnologysuchastheSupplyChainCouncilorforsimulationattheSocietyforComputerSimulation.

Somebasicsonthesetechnologiesfirst:

Simulation（discrete-event）canbedefinedas:

creatingacomputermodelofarealorproposedsystemandconductingexperimentsonthemodeltodescribeobservedbehaviorand/orpredictfuturebehaviorbeforeinvestinganytimeormoney.Becauseexperimentingonarealsystemcouldbecostlyand/orimpractical,simulationhasbecomeanextremelyimportanttoolfordesigningandanalyzingcomplexsystems;

itisacost-effectivewayoftestingproposedsystems,plans,orpoliciesbeforeincurringtheexpenseofprototypes,fieldtests,oractualimplementations.Infact,manymanagershavecometoviewsimulationasaninexpensiveinsurancepolicy.SimulationsometimesgetsconfusedwithBusinessProcessFlowcharting,WorkFlowModelingorProcessModeling.Inactuality,simulationhasoriginsinthefactoryfloor--mostfrequentlyusedintheautomotiveindustryforovertwentyyears.Morerecentlywithallthechangesinthebusinessworlddueto“downsizing”,“rightsizing”andmergers/acquisitions,manyfirmsrealizethebenefitsofusingsimulationbystudyingprocesses（likeafactory）toshowtheeffectofchangeontheircompany.Today’ssimulationsoftwaretoolsrequireend-userinputthroughtestingandevaluation（what-ifanalysis）togetafinal“optimizedsystem.”Intheend,though,simulationisacostsavingtool.Ithassavedcompaniesmillionsofdollarsbyofferinginsightformanagementdecision-makingoncomplexsystems;

abenefitthatisdifficulttomatchusingothertechnologiesormathematicalmethodologies.

SupplyChainManagementhasbeendefinedbylogisticsprofessionalsas:

（the）managingoftheflowofmaterialsandproductsfromthesourcetotheuser.ThefourbasicprocessesofPlan,Source,MakeandDeliveraremostusuallynotedinthisindustry.Soundssimplebutactuallyisquitecomplexduetotheinterdependenciesinasupplychain.Thisflowtypicallyincludesaspectsofpurchasing,manufacturing,capacityplanning,operationsmanagement,productionscheduling,manufacturingrequirementsplanning（MRPII）,distributionsystemplanning,transportationsystems,warehousingandinventorysystems,anddemandinputfromsalesandmarketingactivities.Itcanbefromasingleproductlineorproductionplanttoacomplexchainthatincludesmultipledemandsources,suppliers,distributionmeansorfactories.supplychainsarebeing“managed”thesedaysbysoftwarecalledAdvancedPlanningandScheduling（APS）systems.CompaniesinthisindustryincludeI2Technologies,Manugistics,Numetrix,SASInstituteandmore.Thesetoolsoffertheabilitytorapidlyandsimultaneouslyplanandschedulecustomerdemandwhileconsideringmaterialsandcapacityconstraints.Theyprovidetheabilitytoincreaserevenues,improvecustomerserviceandcutcostsbysynchronizedmanagementofthecompletesupplychain.Thepotentialinimprovedbusinessperformanceisenormous.TheAPSmarketspaceisexploding,roughly$700mUSDin1998andexpectedtotripleinthenext2-3years.TheseAPSsystemsalsoappeartobeinfringingonthehugeEnterpriseResourcePlanning（ERP）marketasnotedbymanyoftheindustryjournalsthesedays.ERPisthetermusedtodescribeintegratedcomputersystemsforcorporatecomputing–sometimescalledthe“transactionalbackbone”ofacompany.ManyofthelargeERPsupplierssuchasSAP,Oracle,PeopleSoftandBaanhaveplanstointroducesupplychainmanagementfunctionalityintotheirsoftwareinthenearfuture.

Finally,dependingonthescopeoftheproblemsinthesupplychain,therearetypicalcoremethodologies–knownas“solvertechnologies”whichinclude;

heuristics,constraintmanagement,linearprogramming,mixed-integerprogrammingandnetworkprogrammingthatprovidetheresultsoroutputsoftheAPStools.Conversely,simulationitisnota“solvertechnology”ratheritisamethodologytoevaluatedetailedsolutionsandalternativesinthesupplychain.

Today’senterpriseenvironment:

Ifyoucouldsummarizeinafewphrasesthesedaysaboutbasicinternalorexternalenvironmentalconditionsthatmostcompany’sfacetoday,Iamsuremostwouldsaytheyareexperiencing:

∙constantlychangingoperations-（productionline,factory,warehouse,distributionsystems,pening/closing/expanding/contracting）

∙mergers,acquisitionsorjointventures

∙informationsystemschanging/merging

∙increasingcompetition

∙increasingcustomerexpectations

∙demandsforhigherprofits

∙complexsystemsintegration

∙conflictingmanagementobjectives-centralize,decentralize,etc.

∙automationandoutsourcingneeds

∙masscustomizationpressures

∙changinginventorypolicies

manymoreforsure….

Thepointisthatallbusinessesaredefinedbyconstantchangeandvariability.Ateverincreasingratesofspeed,fasterandfaster.

Then,whyuseSimulation?

Thosecompaniesthatdonotchangetoimprove–certainlyeventuallygooutofbusinessorlosemarketshareinsomeway.Simulationisthefriendofchangeandcancapturetherandomnessofsystems.Bythis,itismeantthatsimulationcanmodelthecorporatedynamicsinthecompletesupplychain,fromsourcetotheuserinthroughoutthePlan,Source,MakeandDeliverprocess.Howcansimulationcapturethevariability?

Thisismainlyduetothestatisticalnatureofsimulationtools.Theoutputisbothstatisticaldataandperformanceanimationtoviewthesystemdynamics.Simulationcanreliablycaptureandpredicttheeffectofmultiplechangesincorporatesystems.Ifsomebodysaid,“Icanofferyouaviewofhowyoursystemwillperform”mostsaneindividuals（withtheircareersinconsideration）willconsiderthesimulation.Sadly,though,oftensimulationisconsideredonlyaftersystemsareinstalledandworkingimproperlyordonotworkatall.Simulationisaninsurancepolicytopredictsystemperformancetoprovideoptimalresults.

Thekeytounderstandsupplychainperformanceistounderstandthevariabilityoftheprocessesinthesystem.Allthoseitemsmentionedaboveclearlyaffectsupplychainefficiency.Thosecompaniesthatcangaintheknowledgeofthesystemdynamicscanmakebetterevaluations（testdriveorperform“what-ifanalysis”）ofthesupplychaintoimprovetheperformance.Asimulationprojectforcestheunderstandinginastep-by-stepmethod,ofsystemoperationsandthusdefinesthesystemclearlyandthereforeminimizesmultiple（mis）interpretationsastothecomplexityandvariabilityoftheprocesses.Ifyoucanunderstandsupplychaindynamicsandvariabilitybehavior,betterperformancefromthesupplychaincanbeexpected（e.g.lowerinventories,bettercustomerservice.）

Asimulationprojectisinexpensiverelativetothecostofsupplychainsoftwareinstallationandmanagement.TheROIofaprojectiseasilyjustifiedinavoidedcoststhatwillbeevidentintheresultsoftheproject.

Whataresomeexamplesofsystemrandomnessandvariability?

Asnotedabove,thereismuchchangeinourbusinessenvironmenttoday.Therearemanyeverydayoccurrencesthatmakethedecisionmakingprocessdifficultduetothefastchanginginformationputbeforemanagement.Followingaresomeoftheproblemsneedingtoconsiderationforyoursupplychainmodel.

Manufacturing:

∙Stockoutsituations

∙Partsnotarrivingontimeforsubassemblyoperations

∙Machinesbreakinganddisruptingproduction

∙Laborproblems

∙Machinesetup/retoolings

∙Newproductlineintroductions

Warehousing/Distribution:

∙Automatedmaterialhandlingsystemsbroken

∙Trucking/Shipping/Air/Railsystemsdeliverlate

∙Spacingconstraints

InformationTechnology:

∙Changingbusinessprocessesduetomergers/acquisitions

∙Constantlychangingbusinesscomputersystems

MarketConditions:

∙Customerchangingdemand

∙Economicconditions

∙Currencyconditions

Whatspecificallycansimulationdotoimprovesupplychainperformance?

Therearemanyareastoconsiderusingsimulationinyoursupplychainmanagement.

Firstfromanaggregatepointofview,akeyquestionalwaystoconsiderinsupplychainmanagementis“Whatarethetrade-offstoachievehighcustomerservicelevelsvs.associatedcosts（andrelatedprofits）toprovidethisservice?

”Ahighlevelsimulationmodelconsistingofthemanyparametersinthevarioussupplychainlinkswithappropriatestatisticaldatawillprovidevaluableinsightintothisquestion.Youcan“testdrive”yourpoliciesofdistribution/transportationrules,manufacturingrates,inventorylevels,etc.toseetheeffectonthecompletesystem.

Second,typicallythekeycomponentsofthesupplychaininclude:

∙Forecasting–seekstopredictthelevelsofactivitythatwilleffectproductdemand.

∙AdvancedPlanning–setsproductionovertimehorizonsofmonthsoryearsusingconstraintmodelsthattreatbothmaterialsandcapacity.

∙DynamicScheduling–dealswithafewdaystoweeksofproduction,thentakesinformationfromtheERPorAPSsystemsthengenerate