工程经济学大作业.docx

工程经济学大作业.docx

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工程经济学大作业

大连理工大学软件学院

2011-2012学年度第二学期大作业（论文）

课程名称：

工程经济学

大作业题目：

商业街开发项目财务分析

姓　　名：

专　　业：

软件工程

学　　号：

E－mail:

班级：

电话：

_____________________________________________

Commercialstreetdevelopment

Projectfinancialanalysis

（商业街开发项目财务分析）

1preface

Backgroundandadvantages:

withtheimprovementofpeople'slivingstandard,peoplelifequalityrequesttoomoreandmorehigh,commercialstreethasagoodtrafficlocation,closetothetraffichuboftheregion,theresidentscanuseallkindsoftransportationisconvenientarrived,astrongsenseofaccessibilityandlocationadvantages.Citycommerciallocationconditionisitscanbringefficiencyandeffectivenessmaximizationofthebasicbasis.Locationconditionsaffectthecityfunction,theestablishmentofthebosomfriendandurbangenerallayoutplanningdesign,deepersaidalsoaffectthecitycommercialtouristmarketandradiationability.TheprojectlocatedinDLcitymainroad,whichistheadvantageofexcellentpeopleandtrafficflow.

Overviewandenvironment:

DLcityislocatedinanortherncoastallivablecity,ourblockinDLcitydevelopmentzone,wheretheroadspaciousandconvenienttraffic,nearuniversities,hasthegoodculturalatmosphere,andatthesametime,neartheresidentialareadevelopmentzone,moreconvenientresidents'consumption.Theprojectcoversanareaof200mu（120muforsale,80muforrent）ofwhich100muoflandisabusinessman,5acresoflandasastreet.Thetotalconstructionareais250thousandsquaremetres,3~4alargeshoppingmallisgivenpriorityto,andundergroundparking.Hasacertaindevelopmentscale,andcanbringaboutgoodsocialbenefitssocialbenefitsandeconomicbenefits.

2Thenecessityoftheprojectconstruction

AccordingtoChina'seconomicsituation,businesscircleconstructionbecameanimportantaspectofeconomicgrowth,promoteconsumptionhasbecomeanationaltheexpansionofdomesticdemand,promotingeconomicdevelopmentandeconomicvitalityreplyoneoftheimportantmeasures.Throughpromotingconsumption,thedevelopmentofcommercialconstructionnotonlycanrelieve,theimprovementofpeople'slifelevel,butalsocanpromotethedevelopmentofdozensofrelatedindustries,andprovidingsocietywithalargenumberofemploymentopportunities,andpromotethefurtherdevelopmentofthenationaleconomy.Inshort,therealestateindustryhighcorrelationtoeconomicgrowthinfluencebig.Thepurposeofconstruction,topromotethehealthydevelopmentofDLcitycommercialmarket,expanddomesticdemand,maintainagoodmomentumofgrowthinthenationaleconomy,andpromoteeconomicstructuraladjustment,improvetheresidentconsumptionlevelandquality,expandingemployment,promotetheprogressofscienceandtechnologyandthesustainabledevelopmenthasimportantsignificance.

3marketanalysisandgeneralschedule

marketanalysis：

InordertounderstandthemarketdemandstatusinnowdaysCSLcountymerchantmarketresearch,intentiontounderstandthegoalcustomerbuyingintentionandpurchaseability,soastodeterminetheproject'smarketposition.Thecontentoftheinvestigationhavecustomersbuyshopswill,shopstype,theareaofthedemand,thedemandunitpriceandtotalprice,expectationssupportingfacilities;InvestigationtoDMGbuildingmaterialswithinthehouseholdmarketmerchantisgivenpriorityto,questionnairesurveyandinterviewscombinedform,samplingsurvey.Datashowthatmerchantsforfoodandbeverage,financialinstitutions,leisureentertainment,supermarkets,logisticscenterandtheneedsofthehotelisbigger,above90%.Amongthemthedemandoffoodmainlyconcentratedinfastfood,specialsnacksandmiddle-gradehotel;Thehotelisinfavourofquicktypeandthree-starhotel,Leisureandrecreationalfacilitiesaremorepreferencefitnesscenterandbathcenterandetccansatisfytheneedsofdailylifesupporting.Therefore,thepurposeofsupportingfacilities,notonlybeabletomeettheirdailylife,theneedsofwork,andatthesametimetousethepurposeoflocationadvantagesattractperipheralpassengerflow,foilpopularity,thusincreasingtheprojectbusinessatmosphere,increaseprojectappreciationpotential.

TheGNPof36.9millionyuan,animalhusbandryoutputvalue33.57millionyuan,theindustrialoutputvalue14.88millionyuan,townshipandvillageenterprisesthevalueof4.68millionyuan.Asthedevelopmentofgreatwesternarea,regionaldevelopmentrapidly.Thecurrentcommercialcountysurroundinggatheredthebank,digitalspecialstoreandcateringentertainmentinstitutions,businesscircletoincreasinglyprosperous.Futuredevelopmentspaceisquitelarge,theopenthedevelopmentprospectisgood.

ProjectSchedule:

4investmentestimationandfinancing

Investmentestimation:

Thecompanyinvest400millionyuan,600millionyuanloansasdebtcapitalfrombank（fromthethirdyear,eachyearisequalprincipalandinterest,threeyearstopayoff,everyyear600*（1+10%）^5/3=322.102millionyuan）,thebankloaninterestraterd=10%,theincometaxrateT=20%,thefinancingchargesfdisneglected.

Bankloancost

Kd=rd*（1-T）/（1-fd）=10%*（1-20%）/1=8%

5Financialbenefitandcostcounsel

Onsalesfromthethirdyearstart,salesplaneachyear,athirdofayearthatsalesof50000squaremeters,renteveryyearcanbe10millionyuan.priceofeverysquaremetre10,000yuan,soeveryyeartosellandrenthouseshavegiventhefor50000*1=500millionyuan.Countupto510millionyuan.Everyyeartheprincipalandinterestofthebankis322.102millionyuan.

Thefinancialbenefitis510-322.1=187.9millionyuaneveryyear

6Financialanalysis

periodforrecoveryofinvestment:

OriginalinvestmentF0=400millionyuan,startedtoselleachyearafterthenetcashflowfor197.9millionyuancumulativenetcashflowcomesastheyearofsalesisthethirdyear,alsoisthefifthyearintotalprogress.

=0+0+187.9*3-400=163.7>0

Paybacktime

Pt=5-1+（400-163.7*2）/197.9≈4.37年

netpresentvalue

setthediscountrateis10%,theprojectcalculationperiodis5yearsnetpresentvalue.

NPV（10）=

=-400+187.9*（P/A10,5）=-400+（187.9*3.7908）=312.3millionyuan

netpresentvalueNPV>0

internalrateofreturn

NPV=-400+187.9*

=0

Ifi=35%thenNPV=-400+187.9*（P/A35,3）

=-400+187.9*2.219=17.0

Ifi=40%thenNPV=-400+187.9*（P/A40,3）

=-400+187.9*2.035=-17.6

IRR=35%+（40%-35%）*17.0/（17.0+17.6）=37.46%.

Rateofreturnoninvestment

Yearlypaymentofprincipalandinterestis322.102millionyuan,andtheaverageprincipalis200millionyuaneveryyear,sotheeveryyearloaninterestis322.102-200=122.102millionyuan

TheAnnualinterestpre-taxprofitis122.102+187.9=300millionyuan

Therateofreturnoninvestment（ROI）:

ROI=Annualinterestpre-taxprofit/totalinvestment×100%=300/1000×100%=30%

RateofReturnonCommonStockholders’Equity

EquityCapitalis400millionyuan.

ROE=annualprofit/EquityCapital×100%=187.9/400×100%≈47.0%

CurrentRatio

TheCurrentassetsis400millionyuan.

Thebankreimbursementis322.102millionyuaneveryyear.

CurrentRatio=currentassets/TotalCurrentLiabilities

=400/322.102=1.24

InterestCoverageRatio

InterestCoverageRatio=EarningsBeforeInterestandTax/Thecurrentdealwithinterestexpense=400/（322.102-200）=3.28

DebtServiceCoverageRatio

DSCR=（EBITDA-Tax）/PD=400/322.102=1.24

7Summary

Accordingtotheanalysistheresult,thisprojecthasalotofprojectfeasibility.

Fromtheprojectinvestmentpaybackperiodwecansee,theperiodforrecoveryofinvestmentisshortenoughas4.37years.

Fromtheanalysisofinternalrateofreturnandthecurrentratio,wegotthedatathattheinternalrateofreturnisonly37.46,thecurrentratioashighas1.24,theRateofReturnonCommonStockholders’Equityisashighas47.0%,sotheprofitsishighenough.

Soabovetheanalysis,theprojectriskislow,andreturnisrelativelyhigh.Sotheprojectisfeasible.

8Cashflowstatementandaccumulatedrepaymenttable