How Big Can The LED Lighting Market GetWord格式.docx

How Big Can The LED Lighting Market GetWord格式.docx

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HowbigcantheLEDlightingmarketget?

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Smallwoodaddressedboththelampsandluminairesmarkets.

SmallwoodmovedintoaleadershippositionintheStrategiesUnlimitedlightingpracticeinlate2013.Hehassincerevampedtheapproachthatthefirmtakestocharacterizethelightingmarket.Theresearchhasbeenexpandedtocoverlightingproductsbasedonalltypesoflightsources-notjustLED-basedproducts.Thedataissegmentedforformfactorsandapplications.AndSmallwoodhasleddevelopmentofamarketmodelthatcanyieldregionalgeographicalsegmentationofthemarket.Smallwoodalsosaidthenewapproachwillenablemoreaccuratepredictionofsaturationbylong-life,LED-basedproductsandthecoincidentshrinkingofmarketpotential.

Startingwiththelampsmarket,Smallwoodsaidtherearearound45Binstalledlampsocketsintheworldwiththatnumberonlygrowingincrementallyinthecomingyears（Fig.14）.Today,9Bincandescentproductsareinstalledinthosesocketswiththatnumberprojectedtofalltolessthan2Bby2022.Smallwood'

sprojectionshowsthatlinearfluorescentandcompactfluorescent（CFL）technologieswillremainprevalentthrough2022.Primarily,LED-basedreplacementlampswillreplacetheincandescentincumbentwithsomedisplacementoffluorescentandhalogentechnologies.

Recognize,however,thatthereisavastdifferencebetweentheinstalledbaseandshipmentsoflampsthroughouttheforecastperiod;

StrategiesUnlimited'

snewmodelallowstheanalyststoreportboth,andbyregionorglobally.Forexample,Fig.15depictsthedifferenceintheNorthAmericaregionspecifictoA-lamps.TheinstalledbasechartontheleftofFig.15showsastrongpresenceofincandescentproducts,whereasshipmentsofsuchproductswilldropprecipitouslyasLEDlampshipmentscontinuetorise.

Theglobalinstalledbaseoflampswillremainamixintermsoflight-sourcetechnologythrough2022.

TheinstalledbaseofincandescentA-lampsinNorthAmericawilldeclineslowly,whereasnewshipmentsofsuchproductshavealreadyplummetedasLED-lampshipmentsrise.

SmallwoodreportedthatLEDlampsrepresented5%oftheoverall2014marketglobally.Heprojectsthatpenetrationtoriseto28%in2018andto52%in2022.Thosenumbersmaysoundlow,butrememberthetotallampmarketincludestubes,andfluorescenttechnologywillremainamajorplayer.Indeed,Smallwoodprojectsthatfluorescenttubeswillstillaccountformorethan20%oflampshipmentsin2022.

Ironically,SmallwoodalsoreportedaverybullishoutlookforLED-basedreplacementtubesashebrokethedatadownbytypeoflamp.SmallwoodadmittedthatheneverbelievedtheconceptofanLED-basedreplacementtubetobeaverygoodidearelativetoproductssuchasintegral,LED-basedluminaires.Buttheresearchindicatesthatthemarketwillheavilyrelyonsuchtubeproductsprimarilybecauseoftheeaseofretrofit.Smallwoodprojectsa29%CAGRfortubeshipmentsthrough2022,althoughthegrowthwillflattenattheendofthatperiodassocketsaresaturated.

Overallsaturationwillbefeltfarmoreacutely.Totallampshipmentswilldeclineby44%through2022.Otherthanthetubemarket,alloftheotherlamptypeswillbeindeclineintermsofunitsshippedbytheendofthisdecade.

Still,thelampmarketwillremainsizeableintermsofrevenue.Fig.16showsthelampmarketchartedbyrevenueandsegmentedbylight-sourcetechnology.Revenuewillpeakat$21Bin2018butstillreachahefty$16Bvaluein2022.

Smallwoodalsocoveredtheluminairesspace.AndtheStrategiesUnlimitedteamhasdevelopedafarmoregranularmodelforthebroadluminairessegment.Theteamisnowsegmentingthemarketbydifferenttypesoffixturesincluding:

1.Downlights

2.Troffers

3.Highbays

4.Suspendedpendants

5.Tracklights

6.Streetlights

Moreover,thenewmodelincludestheabilitytosortthedatabyapplicationincludingretail,office,hospitality,andmore.Thetwotypesofsegmentationcanbeappliedindividuallyortogether.AndintermsofLED-basedfixtures,StrategiesUnlimitedisseparatelytrackingfixturesthatuseLED-basedreplacementlampsandfixturesbasedonintegral,LED-baseddesigns.

Globallamprevenuewillpeakinaboutfouryearsassocketsaturationwithlong-lifeLED-basedproductstakesplace.

Thegloballuminairemarketwillgrowslowlythrough2022,butLED-basedproductswillrepresentanincreasinglylargeshareofthatrevenue.

In2014,thecombinationofbothtypesofLEDfixturesrepresentedlessthan4%ofthetotalluminairemarketintermsoftheinstalledbase.Butagaininstalledbaseandshipmentsdiffer.Fig.17providesanexcellentpictureofbothmarketsizeandthelight-sourcetechnologiesthatwillshipinluminaires.Luminairerevenuewillonlyrampfrom$59Bin2014to$66Bin2022.Butasmentionedatthebeginningofthearticle,69%oftheluminaireswillbeLED-basedin2022.

Smallwoodclosedhispresentationwithsomeinterestingthoughts.Hesaid,"

ThelightingworldhasacceptedthatLEDsarethefuture."

Still,hecharacterizedthetransitionasanevolutionfromthefilamenttoLEDsources.Headded,however,thatthereisarevolutionafootinadditiontothechanginglightsources.

Smallwoodsaid,"

TherevolutionistheancillaryproductsandtechnologiessuchasnetworksandcontrolsthatarecomingalongwithLEDlighting."

Smartlightingbasedonsensor-drivenautonomousorprogrammaticcontrolsisagoodexample.Smallwoodalsosuggestedthattherevolutionwilldeliver"

lightingwithapurpose."

Hesaidlightingwillspecificallytargetneedssuchashumanwellbeing,productivity,security,andsafety.

FourMajorTrendsinStreet-lightTechnology

Street-lighttechnologyhaschangedgreatlyovertime,includingthetypeoflightsourcesused,andthewaystreet-lightingsystemsareoperatedandmanaged.Recentconcernsaboutglobalwarmingandtherisingcostofenergyhaveincentivizedutilitiesandmunicipalitiestodeploynewsolutionsaddressingtheseissues.Intelligentoutdoorlightinghelpstodrasticallyreduceenergyconsumption.Atthesametime,itincreasessafetyandreducesmaintenancecosts.TogetherwiththedeploymentofmoreefficientluminairesbasedonLEDs,theoperatorshavetothinkaboutoutdoorlightingnetworks（OLNs）usingastandardizedmanagementinterface.TheTALQConsortiumwascreatedtodevelopsuchstandardstoguaranteeinteroperabilityofheterogeneoussystemsandloweroperationalandpurchasingcosts.

Fourmajortrendshaveinfluencedtheoutdoorlightingsectorinthepastfewyears.ThefirsttrendistheacceleratedintroductionofLEDluminairesinroadandurbanlighting.LED-basedsolid-statelighting（SSL）systems,duetotheirelectronicnature,arerelativelyeasytocontrol.AlongwiththestronggrowthofoutdoorSSL,arobustincreaseintheuptakeofcontrollableoutdoorlightingisexpected.

Thesecondmajortrendisaworldwideneedforlightingcontrol.Adjustinglightinglevelsdependingonactivity,presence,traffic,andweatherconditionssavesenergybyprovidingtherightlightlevelattherighttimeintherightplace.Knowingatanytimethestatusofanylightpointandbeingabletomonitoreachofthemremotelydrasticallyreducesthenumberofmaintenancetrucksonstreetsandincreasessafetyinthestreets.

Thethirdtrendistheprofessionalizationofcityoperationsmanagementtoincreaseoverallefficiency.Citiesarelookingforefficientwaystomanagetheirassets,includinglighting.CentraloutdoorSSLcontrolsystemsprovidethemeansandtoolstoreduceoperatingcostsbyautomaticallyidentifyingfailures,reducingthenumberofonsitetrips,andenablingremotecontrol-e.g.,toadjustthelightingincaseofanemergency.

Andthelasttrend,butmaybethemostimportantone,istheglobalpressureofsocietytoreduceenergyconsumptionandcarbonemissions.Todaythereisastrongneedtoreduceenergyconsumptioninordertoreducethecarbonfootprintimpact.Moreover,lightingaccountsforalargeshareofenergyusegloballyandstreetlightsoperateforextendedperiodsnightly.Atpresent,onlyaverysmallfractionofoutdoorlighting-likelylessthan10%-canbedimmed.ThoughinstallationofLEDluminairesalreadyprovidesasignificantenergyreduction,thereisstillgreatpotentialforfurtherenergysavingswithcontrollableoutdoorSSLsystems.

Creerecallsrecentlylaunchedfluorescent-replacementLEDT8lamps

Lamprecallaffects700,000SSLproductsintendedforfluorescentreplacementandCreewillsupplynewLEDT8tubesbeginninginJulyorofferrefunds.

TheCreeLEDT8tubefamilylaunchedbackinAprilhasbeenfoundtohaveadesignflawthatcouldresultinaburnhazard,andCreeisvoluntarilyrecalling700,000ofthetubesandcooperatingwiththeUSConsumerProductSafetyCommission（CPSC）.CreeisofferingownersoftheLEDT8tubestheoptionofarefundorreplacementlampsthatthecompanywillbeginshippinginJuly.

Editor’snote:

TheimagedisplayedhereisonlyonerepresentativeLEDT8productimagefromtheCreerecallpage.Pleasevisitformoredetailsandimages.

WhiletherecallissurelynotpositivenewsforCree,anumberofcompaniesinthesolid-statelighting（SSL）businesshavebeenthroughsimilarsituations.OsramSylvaniaandLightingScienceGroupwereinvolvedinanA-lamprecallbackin2013.AndPhilip