数据挖掘论文英文版文档格式.docx

数据挖掘论文英文版文档格式.docx

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Sincethethirdtechnologicalrevolution,theenergyhasbecomethelifelineofnationaleconomy,whiletheenergyonEarthislimited,soinbetweenthemajorpowersledtoanumberofoil-relatedorsimplyawarforoil.Inordertocompeteontheworld'

sresourcesandenergycontrol,ledtotheoutbreakoftwoworldwars.China'

scurrentconsumptionperiodcoincidedwiththeadventofhigh-energy,CNPC,Sinopec,CNOOCthreestate-ownedoilgiantshavebeen"

goingout"

todevelopinternationalmarkets,JilinProvinceasChina'

senergyoutputandenergyconsumptionprovince,isalsoactiveintheenergycorrespondingdiplomacy.Economicglobalizationandincreasinglyfiercecompetitionintheenergyenvironment,China'

senergypolicyisstilltherearemanyimperfections,toacertainextent,affecttheenergyandpopulationdevelopmentofJilinProvince,Chinaandeventosomeextentcanbesaidexistingpopulationcrisisistheenergycrisis.

[Keyword]

Energyconsumption;

Population;

Growth;

Analysis;

Datasource

Iselectdatafrom"

ChinaStatisticalYearbook2009"

JilinProvince1995-2007comprehensiveannualfinancialdata（Table1）.Recordofthetotalpopulation（end）oftheannualdatasequence{Xt},mindfullofenergyconsumption（kgofstandardcoal）annualdatasequence{Yt}.

Table11995-2007olderandprovinceGDPpercapitaconsumptionlevelofalldata

Years

OfthetotalpopulationXt

Nationalenergy

consumption

（kg）Yt

LNOfthetotal

populationXt

LNNationalenergy

consumption（kg）Yt

1995

121121

15842626.8

11.70454532

16.57821476

1996

122389

17807599.5

11.71495978

16.69513586

1997

123626

16454620.6

11.72501616

16.61611688

1998

124761

14459799.9

11.73415519

16.48688294

1999

125786

15270420.4

11.74233733

16.54142821

2000

126743

16020315.2

11.74991669

16.58936817

2001

127627

16629798.1

11.75686723

16.62670671

2002

128453

17585215.7

11.76331836

16.68256909

2003

129227

19888035.3

11.76932583

16.80562887

2004

129988

21344029.6

11.77519742

16.87628261

2005

130756

23523004.4

11.78108827

16.97348941

2006

131448

25592925.6

11.78636662

17.05782653

2007

132129

26861825.7

11.791534

17.10621672

1.Timingdiagram

First,thetotalpopulationofTable1（end）oftheannualdataseries{Xt},fullofenergyconsumption（kgofstandardcoal）annualdataseries{Yt}aredrawntimingdiagram,inordertoobservetheannualpopulationdataseries{Xt}andnationalannualenergyconsumptiondatasequence{Yt}isstationary,byEVIEWSsoftwareoutputisshownbelow.

Figure1ofthetotalpopulation（end）sequencetimingdiagram

Figure2universallifeenergyconsumption（kgofstandardcoal）sequencetimingdiagram

Figure1isasequence{Xt}thetimingdiagram,Figure2isasequence{Yt}ofthetimingdiagram.

Twofiguresshowboththetotalpopulation（end）oruniversallifeenergyconsumption（kgofstandardcoal）indexshowedarisingtrend,thetotalpopulationoftheannualdataseries{Xt}andnationalannualenergyconsumptiondatasequence{Yt}notsmooth,thetwomayhavelong-termcointegrationrelationship.

2.Datasmoothing

（1）SequenceLogarithm

Figures1and2bytheintuitivediscoverydatasequence{Xt}and{Yt}showedasignificantgrowthtrend,asignificantnon-stationarysequence.Therefore,thetotalpopulationoffirstsequence{Xt}anduniversallifeenergyconsumption（kgofstandardcoal）{Yt},respectivelyforthenumberoftreatmenttoeliminateheteroscedasticity.Thatlogx=lnXt,logy=lnYt,withaviewtothetargetsequenceintothelineartrendtrendsequence,byEVIEWSsoftwareoperations,thenumberofsequencetimingdiagram,inwhichthepopulationsequence{logx}timingdiagramshowninFigure3,thefullsequenceofenergyconsumption{logy}timingdiagramshowninFigure4.

Figure3Figure4

Figure3showsthetotalpopulationobservedsequence{logx}anduniversallifeenergyconsumption（kgofstandardcoal）sequence{logy}indextrendhasbeenbasicallyeliminated,thetwohaveobviouslong-termcointegrationrelationship,whichisthetransferfunctionmodelinganimportantprerequisite.However,theabovesequenceofnumbersisstillnon-stationaryseries.Respectively{logx}and{logy}sequenceofADFunitroottest（Table5andTable6）,thetestresultsasshownbelow.

（2）Unitroottest

Herewewillbeontheprovince'

stotalpopulationandthewholesequence{Xt}energyconsumption（kgofstandardcoal）sequencedata{Yt}betheunitroottest,theresultsobtainedbyEviewssoftwareoperationisasfollows:

Table2Ofthetotalpopulationsequence{logx}

ObtainedfromTable2:

Totalpopulationsequencedata{Xt}oftheADFis-0.784587,significantlylargerthanthe1%levelinthecriticaltestvalueof-4.3260,the5%levelgreaterthanthecriticalvalueof-3.2195testing,butalsogreaterthan10%levelinthecriticaltestvalue-2.7557,sothetotalpopulationofthedatasequence{logx}{Xt}isanon-stationaryseries.

Table3Nationalenergyconsumption（kgofstandardcoal）unitroottest{logy}

ObtainedfromTable3:

Nationalenergyconsumption（kgofstandardcoal）data{Yt}oftheADFis0.489677,significantlylargerthanthe1%levelinthecriticaltestvalueof-4.3260,the5%levelgreaterthanthecriticaltestvalueof-3.2195,butalso10%greaterthanthecriticalleveltestvalue-2.7557,sothetotalpopulationofthesequence{logx}data{Yt}isanon-stationaryseries.

（3）Sequenceofdifferential

Becauseofthenumberoftimeseriesafterstillnotasmoothsequence,sotheneedforfurtherlogarithmofthetotalpopulationafterthesequence{logx}andafterafewoftheuniversallifeenergyconsumption（kgofstandardcoal）differentialsequencedata{logY}differentialsequenceswererecordedas{▽logx}and{▽logy}.Arerespectivelythesecond-orderdifferentialofthetotalpopulationofthesequence{▽logX}andsecond-orderdifferentialofthenationalenergyconsumption（kgofstandardcoal）sequencedata{▽logy}theADFunitroottest（Table7andTable8）,testresultsthefollowingtable.

Table4

Table4showsthatthetotalpopulationofsecond-orderdifferentialsequence{▽logx}ADFvalueis-10.6278,apparentlylessthan1%levelinthecriticaltestvalueof-6.292057,lessthanthe5%levelinthecriticaltestvalue-4.450425also10%lessthanthelevelinthecriticaltestvalueof-3.701534,second-orderdifferentialofthetotalpopulationofthesequence{▽logx}isastationarysequence.

Table55

Table5showsthatthesecond-orderdifferentialuniversallifeenergyconsumption（kgofstandardcoal）{▽logy}oftheADFis-6.395029,apparentlylessthan1%levelinthecriticaltestvalueof-4.4613,lessthanthe5%levelofthecriticaltestvalueof-3.2695,butalsolessthanthe10%levelthecriticalvalueof-2.7822testing,universallife,second-orderdifferentialconsumptionofenergy（kgofstandardcoal）{▽logy}isastationarysequence.

3.Cointegration

（1）Cointegrationregression

Cointegrationtheoryinthe1980sthereEngleGrangerputforwardspecific,itisfromtheanalysisofnon-stationarytimeseriesstarttoexplorethenon-stationaryvariablecontainsthelong-runequilibriumrelationshipbetweenthenon-stationarytimeseriesmodelingprovidesanewsolution.

Asthepopulationtimeseries{Xt}anduniversallifeenergyconsumptiontimeseries{Yt}arelogarithmic,thetotalpopulationobtainedbytheanalysisoftimeseries{logX}anduniversallifeenergyconsumptiontimeseries{logY}aresecond-ordersinglewholesequence,sotheymayexistcointegrationrelationship.TheresultsobtainedbyEviewssoftwareoperationisasfollows:

Table6

ObtainedfromTable6:

D（LNE2）=-0.054819–101.8623D（LOGX2）

t=（-1.069855）（-1.120827）

R2=0.122487DW=1.593055

（2）Checkthesmoothnessoftheresidualsequence

FromtheEviewssoftware,getresidualsequenceanalysis:

Table7Residualseriesunitroottest

ObtainedfromTable7:

second-orderdifferentialvalueof-5.977460ADFresiduals,significantlylessthan1%levelinthecriticaltestvalue-4.6405,lessthan5%levelinthecriticaltestvalueof-3.3350,butalsolessthan10%levelinthecriticaltestvalueof-2.8169.Therefore,thesecond-orderdifferenceoftheresidualetisastationarytimeseriessequence.Expressedasfollows:

D（ET,2）=-0.042260-1.707007D（ET（-1）,2）

t=（-0.783744）（-5.977460）

DW=1.603022EG=-5.977460，

SinceEG=-5.977460,checktheAFGcointegrationtestcriticalvaluetable（N=2,=0.05,T=16）received,EGvalueislessthanthecriticalvalue,sotoaccepttheoriginalsequenceetisstationaryassumption.Soyoucandeterminethetotalpopulationandenergyconsumptionofallthepeoplelivingtherearetwovariablesarelong-termcointegrationrelationship.

4.ECMmodeltoestablish

Throughtheaboveanalysis,afterthesecond-orderdifferentialofthelogarithmofthetotalpopulationtimeseries{▽logX}andsecond-orderdifferentialofLogarithmofofnationalenergyconsumptiontimeseries{▽logY}isastationarysequence,thesecond-orderdifferentialresidualsetisalsoastationaryseries.Sothatthenumberofsecond-orderdifferentialofthenationalenergyconsumptiontimeseries{▽logY}asthedependentvariable,afterthesecond-orderdifferentialofthelogarithmofthetotalpopulationtimeseries{▽logX}andsecond-orderdifferentialasresidualsetfromvariableregressionestimation,usingEviewssoftware,th