系统设计外文文献及译文 张所炜.docx
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系统设计外文文献及译文张所炜
南京工程学院
英文文献及译文
作者:
张所炜学号:
209100738
系部:
经济与管理学院
专业:
信息管理与信息系统
题目:
“投入产出分析系统”的设计与实现
指导者:
黄传峰副教授
2014年2月
Emergingchallenginginregionalinput-outputanalysis
GeoffreyJ.D.Hewings
UniversityofIllinoisatUrbana-ChampaignUSA
and
RodneyC.Jensen
UniversityofQueenslandSt.LuciAustralia
Abstract.Thechanginginterestsandfocusofresearchinthefieldofregionalinput-outputanalysisisexamined.Afterreviewingsomeoftherecenttrendsandsuggestingthetenoroftheprevailingphilosophyinthefield,attentionisfocusedonthree,interdependentemergingtrends.Thesearecharacterizedas
(1)theconceptualizationofinput-outputwithinthetraditionsofeconometricanalysis;
(2)theintegrationofinput-outputwithotherregionalandinterregionalmodelsand(3)attemptstolinkinput-outputanalysiswithregionalgrowthanddevelopmenttheory.
I.Preface
Toourknowledge,MichaelMischaikow'sresearchinterestshavenotdirectlyencompassedregionalinput-outputanalysis.However,asEditoroftheAnnals,andasahighlyrespectedstatesmaninregionalscience,hehashadasignificantinfluenceinfosteringthegrowthanddevelopmentofmanyanalyticaltechniquesinregionalanalysisincludinginput-outputanalysis.SeveralveryimportantandinfluentialarticleshaveappearedintheAnnals,manyastheresultofMischaikow'sinitiativeandencouragement.Hehasbeenafirm,committedchampionofoursub-fieldofregionalinput-outputanalysis.WearepleasedtohavetheopportunitytoofferthispaperaspartofhisFestschrift,bothasamarkofpersonalappreciationandencouragement,andtohonortheoutstandingcontributionofavaluedcolleague.
II.Introduction
Thefieldofregionalanalyticalmodellingisundergoingasignificantnewsurgeofinterestanddevelopment.Inthispaper,someofthesedevelopmentswillbereportedinthecontextofasetofemergingehallengesinthefieldofregionalinput-outputanalysis.First,however,thecurrentstateoftheartwillbereviewedbriefly.Thereafter,somegeneralcommentswillbemadeabouttheprevailingphilosophyininput-outputanalysis.Thefifthsectionofthepaperwilladdresstheemergingtrendsasawayofestablishingapossibleagendaforthefuture.Thefinalpartofthepaperprovidessomeconcludingcomments.
III.TheStateoftheArtinRegionalInput-OutputAnalysis
Withseveralrecentcontributionsunderthisumbrella(MillerandBlair,1985;Richardson,1985;HewingsandJensen,1986),theneedforyetanothercomprehensivereviewofinput-outputattheregionallevelisnotahighpriority.Theobjectiveinthissectionisnottoprovidethedetailedcoveragethatthesepapersandmonographshavecontributed,butratherasummaryandoverviewofgeneraltrendsanddirections.Thisoverviewisintendedtofacilitatethediscussioninlatersectionsofthepaper.
Twoimportantpointsneedtobeestablishedasaprefacetoanoverviewofimportantdevelopmentsininput-output.First,whileregionalinput-outputmodelshavebecomeanacceptedandmuch-usedpartofthearsenalofanalyticaltechniques,thereisastrongsuspicionthatmanyanalystshaveahigherlevelofawarenessofthemodel'slimitationsthantheyhaveofitsutility.Thiscommentismadeonthebasisofcasualempiricismderivedfromreferees'commentsoninput-outputpaperssubmittedtojournalsandcommentarymadeonsimilarpaperspresentedatprofessionalmeetings.Weseethisprimarilyasaresultofthecontinuedhighlevelofdebate,evaluation,andtestingwhichhascharacterizedthefieldofregionalinput-output,probablyfarmorethanmostotherfieldsofeconomicanalysis.Thishealthydebateandcriticalintrospectionhasbeeninthetraditionsofanacademicandprofessionalenvironmentaimedatcontinuedimprovementandevaluationofexistinganalyticalskills.Itisnoexaggerationtosuggestthatthemostinformedandconsistentcriticsofaspectsoftheinput-outputmethodologyarethoseactivelyanddiligentlyinvolvedinresearchonthetechnique.Asissooftentheease,thenegativeaspectsofsuchactivitiestendtofUterthroughtothosewithmarginalinterestandknowledgeofthetechnique,withmoreefficiencythanpositiveaspects,creatinginthiseaseanimageofinput-outputwhichislessencouragingthanthatwarrantedbytherealityofprogress.Inasense,thissituationprovidesevidenceofaGresham'sLawofInformation--thebaddrivingoutthegood.
Second,thereisalsoanunderlyingperceptionthatinput-outputmodelshavenotadaptedwelltotheneedsofthemodernanalyst;thereappearstobesomefeelingthat"moremodern"methodsareincreasinglyrequiredinroutineanalyticalsituations,asthe"lifecycle"ofinput-outputanalysisproceedspastsomepeakofactivity.Weseesuchanattitudeasextraordinaryinlightofthecurrentunprecedentedexpansionintheuseofinput-outputattheregionallevel~wherethetechniqueisrapidlybecomingroutineinplanningandimpactstudies,andobviouslyfillinganeedtoanincreasingextent.Whileitwouldbeunfortunateifthispaperdevolvedmerelyintoadefenseofthetechnique,someoftheseperceptionsarewidelyheldtobesound.Hence,somesummarystatementofthecurrentstatusofthefieldanditsdevelopmentsappearstobeappropriateandisprovidedbelow.
Anexaminationoftheliteraturesuggeststhatanumberofimportantdevelopmentscanbehighlighted:
(1)herapidgrowthintheadoptionofinput-outputanalysis,forplanning,forecastingandgeneralimpactanalysis,attheregionallevelincountriesofallpoliticalpersuasionsandlevelsofdevelopment,tothestageofroutineapplication.Recentexperiencewouldappeartobecountertoanysuggestionthatinput-outputanalysishasreachedandpasseditszenith.Infact,inputoutputappearstobeenteringanewstageofexpandedroutineapplication.Inmanyways,thechallengesfacingtheconstructionandultimateuseofregionalinput-outputmodelsareasgreatastheyweretwoorthreedecadesago,yettheyareofadifferentkind.Ofparticularimportancehasbeenthegradualuseofthesemodelsindevelopingeconomies,particularlyinthecontextofintegratedmodels(seebelow).
(2)thedeclineintheattentiongiventotheproductionofregionalinputoutputtables{newinput-outputtablesareappropriatelyregardedasroutineratherthansignificantevents.Nospecialfanfareisaccordedtheproductionofregionalinput-outputtablesinthedevelopedworld--unlesssomenovelaccountingscheme,datacollectionmethodorparticularapplicationhasbeenassociatedwiththeirdevelopment.Theprocesshasjbecorneroutine,acceleratedbytheavailabilityofseveralcompetingpersonalcomputerpackageswhichwillenabletheconstructionofaregionalinput-outputtablewithminimalregionaldata(forapartialreview,seeSivitanidouandPolenske,1987).Furthermore,therehasbeenagreaterrecognitionintheliteratureofthelinkagesbetweenanumberofimportantmodellingparadigms.Thus,thebi-proportionalorRAStechniquewhichwasfirstdevelopedforupdatinginput-outputtableshasbeenshowntobepartofabroadfamilyofmatrixestimationtechniquesontheonehand(seeBatten,1982;BoyceandBatten,19861Nagurney,19871Willikens,1981)andaspecialcaseofgeneralerroranalysisinmatrixsystemsontheotherhand(seeSonisandHewings,1987).Thisrecognitionhasleadtoagreatdealofsharedexpertiseandanenrichingoftheanalyticaltools{theflexibilityaffordedbyentropy,contingencytableandnetworkapproaches(suchasthoseofKadasandKlafsky,1976andthevariationalinequalityproposalsbyNagurney,1987)tomatrixestimationhasprovidedtheanalystwithachoiceofapproacheswhich,forthemostpart,donotdependentirelyonthedatasetavailable.
(3)amovementtowardsthedevelopmentofhybridinput-outputtables,acompromisepositionbetweengroupswhoadvocatedtheconstructionoftablesfromsurveydataaloneandthosewhosepositionisthatnonsurveytechniqueswillproducetablesoftherequisitequality.Alternativeapproachestotheconstructionofregionaltablesdominatedtheliteratureformuchofthe1970s.Whileextremepositionsweretakenintheearlieryears,therewouldappeartohavebeensignificantmellowingofopinionsandmovementstowardsthecenter,thecenterbeingdefinedastherecognitionthatpartialsurveyorhybridtableswouldbecomethedominantconstructiontechnique.Inpart,thiscompromisewasreachedonbothpragmaticandanalyticgrounds.Intheformercase,therecognitionthatthedaysofmassiveappropriationoffundsbystate,provincialandlocalgovernmentagenciesforthedenovoconstructionofinput-outputtableswasoverpropelledresearcherstoponderthealternatives.Ontheotherhand,therewasincreasingevidencethatthecensusmentality,namelythatallentriesinaninput-outputtablehadtobeobtainedfromsurveydata,wasprobablymisplaced.Notionsofanalyticalimportancebegantoprovidethewayforacompromisewhichwouldallowtheinvestigatortomaximizethequalityoftheeffortinvolvedinanydatacollectionbyfocusingongartsofthesystemwhosedirectestimationwasdeemedcritical.Whiledebatenowcentersontheidentificationoftheseelements,fewarticleshaveappearedintherecentpastwhichhaveventuredfarfromanotionofsupportforthedevelopmentofhybrid.
(4)arecognitionthatintegratedandmorespecializedmodels,withtheinput-outputmodelasonecomponent,willbemoreimportantattheregionallevelinthecomingyears,andthedevelopmentofoperationalmodelsofthistype.WhileIsard's"ChannelsofSynthesis"chapterinMethodsofRegionalAnalysiswasconsideredby