学术英语Unit4.docx
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学术英语Unit4
UnitFour
Task1
TheDawnofTheAgeofArtificialIntelligence
Reasonstocheertheriseofthemachines
ErikBrynjolfsson&AndrewMcafee
【1】Theadvanceswe’veseeninthepastfewyears–carsthatdrivethemselves,usefulhumanoidrobots,speechrecognitionandsynthesissystems,3Dprinters,Jeopardy!
-championcomputers—arenotthecrowningachievementsofthecomputerera.They’rethewarm-upacts.Aswemovedeeperintothesecondmachineagewe’llseemoreandmoresuchwonders,andthey’llbecomemoreandmoreimpressive.
【2】Howcanwebesosure?
Becausetheexponential,digital,andrecombinantpowersofthesecondmachineagehavemadeitpossibleforhumanitytocreatetwoofthemostimportantone-timeeventsinourhistory:
theemergenceofreal,usefulartificialintelligence(AI)andtheconnectionofmostofthepeopleontheplanetviaacommondigitalnetwork.
【3】Eitheroftheseadvancesalonewouldfundamentallychangeourgrowthprospects.Whencombined,they’remoreimportantthananythingsincetheIndustrialRevolution,whichforevertransformedhowphysicalworkwasdone.
ThinkingMachines,Availablenow
【4】Digitalmachineshaveescapedtheirnarrowconfinesandstartedtodemonstratebroadabilitiesinpatternrecognition,complexcommunication,andotherdomainsthatusedtobeexclusivelyhuman.We’verecentlyseengreatprogressinnaturallanguageprocessing,machinelearning(theabilityofacomputertoautomaticallyrefineitsmethodsandimproveitsresultsasitgetsmoredata),computervision,simultaneouslocalizationandmapping,andmanyotherareas.
【5】We’regoingtoseeartificialintelligencedomoreandmore,andasthishappenscostswillgodown,outcomeswillimprove,andourliveswillgetbetter.SooncountlesspiecesofAIwillbeworkingonourbehalf,ofteninthebackground.They’llhelpusinareasrangingfromtrivialtosubstantivetolifechanging.TrivialusesofAIincluderecognizingourfriends’facesinphotosandrecommendingproducts.Moresubstantiveonesincludeautomaticallydrivingcarsontheroad,guidingrobotsinwarehouses,andbettermatchingjobsandjobseekers.Buttheseremarkableadvancespaleagainstthelife-changingpotentialofartificialintelligence.
【6】Totakejustonerecentexample,innovatorsattheIsraelicompanyOrCamhavecombinedasmallbutpowerfulcomputer,digitalsensors,andexcellentalgorithmstogivekeyaspectsofsighttothevisuallyimpaired(apopulationnumberingmorethantwentymillionintheUnitedStatesalone).AuseroftheOrCamsystem,whichwasintroducedin2013,clipsontoherglassesacombinationofatinydigitalcameraandspeakerthatworksbyconductingsoundwavesthroughthebonesofthehead.Ifshepointsherfingeratasourceoftextsuchasabillboard,packageoffood,ornewspaperarticle,thecomputerimmediatelyanalyzestheimagesthecamerasendstoit,thenreadsthetexttoherviathespeaker.
【7】Readingtext‘inthewild’–inavarietyoffonts,sizes,surfaces,andlightingconditions—hashistoricallybeenyetanotherareawherehumansoutpacedeventhemostadvancedhardwareandsoftware.OrCamandsimilarinnovationsshowthatthisisnolongerthecase,andthathereagaintechnologyisracingahead.Asitdoes,itwillhelpmillionsofpeopleleadfullerlives.TheOrCamcostsabout$2,500–thepriceofagoodhearingaid–andiscertaintobecomecheaperovertime.
【8】Digitaltechnologiesarealsorestoringhearingtothedeafviacochlearimplantsandwillprobablybringsightbacktothefullyblind;theFDArecentlyapprovedafirst-generationretinalimplant.AI’sbenefitsextendeventoquadriplegics,sincewheelchairscannowbecontrolledbythoughts.Consideredobjectively,theseadvancesaresomethingclosetomiracles–andthey’restillintheirinfancy.
BillionsofInnovators,ComingSoon
【9】InadditiontopowerfulandusefulAI,theotherrecentdevelopmentthatpromisestofurtheracceleratethesecondmachineageisthedigitalinterconnectionoftheplanet’speople.Thereisnobetterresourceforimprovingtheworldandbetteringthestateofhumanitythantheworld’shumans–all7.1billionofus.Ourgoodideasandinnovationswilladdressthechallengesthatarise,improvethequalityofourlives,allowustolivemorelightlyontheplanet,andhelpustakebettercareofoneanother.Itisaremarkableandunmistakablefactthat,withtheexceptionofclimatechange,virtuallyallenvironmental,social,andindividualindicatorsofhealthhaveimprovedovertime,evenashumanpopulationhasincreased.
【10】Thisimprovementisnotaluckycoincidence;itiscauseandeffect.Thingshavegottenbetter because therearemorepeople,whointotalhavemoregoodideasthatimproveouroveralllot.TheeconomistJulianSimonwasoneofthefirsttomakethisoptimisticargument,andheadvanceditrepeatedlyandforcefullythroughouthiscareer.Hewrote,“Itisyourmindthatmatterseconomically,asmuchormorethanyourmouthorhands.Inthelongrun,themostimportanteconomiceffectofpopulationsizeandgrowthisthecontributionofadditionalpeopletoourstockofusefulknowledge.Andthiscontributionislargeenoughinthelongruntoovercomeallthecostsofpopulationgrowth.”
【11】WedohaveonequibblewithSimon,however.Hewrotethat,“Themainfueltospeedtheworld’sprogressisourstockofknowledge,andthebrakeisourlackofimagination.”Weagreeaboutthefuelbutdisagreeaboutthebrake.Themainimpedimenttoprogresshasbeenthat,untilquiterecently,asizableportionoftheworld’speoplehadnoeffectivewaytoaccesstheworld’sstockofknowledgeortoaddtoit.
【12】IntheindustrializedWestwehavelongbeenaccustomedtohavinglibraries,telephones,andcomputersatourdisposal,butthesehavebeenunimaginableluxuriestothepeopleofthedevelopingworld.Thatsituationisrapidlychanging.In2000,forexample,therewereapproximatelysevenhundredmillionmobilephonesubscriptionsintheworld,fewerthan30percentofwhichwereindevelopingcountries.
【13】By2012thereweremorethansixbillionsubscriptions,over75percentofwhichwereinthedevelopingworld.TheWorldBankestimatesthatthree-quartersofthepeopleontheplanetnowhaveaccesstoamobilephone,andthatinsomecountriesmobiletelephonyismorewidespreadthanelectricityorcleanwater.
【14】Thefirstmobilephonesboughtandsoldinthedevelopingworldwerecapableoflittlemorethanvoicecallsandtextmessages,yeteventhesesimpledevicescouldmakeasignificantdifference.Between1997and2001theeconomistRobertJensenstudiedasetofcoastalvillagesinKerala,India,wherefishingwasthemainindustry.10Jensengathereddatabothbeforeandaftermobilephoneservicewasintroduced,andthechangeshedocumentedareremarkable.Fishpricesstabilizedimmediatelyafterphoneswereintroduced,andeventhoughthesepricesdroppedonaverage,fishermen’sprofitsactuallyincreasedbecausetheywereabletoeliminatethewastethatoccurredwhentheytooktheirfishtomarketsthatalreadyhadenoughsupplyfortheday.Theoveralleconomicwell-beingofbothbuyersandsellersimproved,andJensenwasabletotiethesegainsdirectlytothephonesthemselves.
【15】Now,ofcourse,eventhemostbasicphonessoldinthedevelopingworldaremorepowerfulthantheonesusedbyKerala’sfishermanoveradecadeago.Andcheapmobiledeviceskeepimproving.TechnologyanalysisfirmIDCforecaststhatsmartphoneswilloutsellfeaturephonesinthenearfuture,andwillmakeupabouttwo-thirdsofallsalesby2017.
【16】Thisshiftisduetocontinuedsimultaneousperformanceimprovementsandcostdeclinesinbothmobilephonedevicesandnetworks,andithasanimportantconsequence:
itwillbringbillionsofpeopleintothecommunityofpotentialknowledgecreators,problemsolvers,andinnovators.
‘InfiniteComputing’andBeyond
【17】Today,peoplewithconnectedsmartphonesortabletsanywhereintheworldhaveaccesstomany(ifnotmost)ofthesamecommunicationresourcesandinformationthatwedowhilesittinginourofficesatMIT.TheycansearchtheWebandbrowseWikipedia.Theycanfollowonlinecourses,someofthemtaughtbythebestintheacademicworld.Theycansharetheirinsightsonblogs,Facebook,Twitter,andmanyotherservices,mostofwhicharefree.TheycanevenconductsophisticateddataanalysesusingcloudresourcessuchasAmazonWebServicesandR,anopensourceapplicationforstatistics.13Inshort,theycanbefullcontributorsintheworkofinnovationandknowledgecreation,takingadvantageofwhatAutodeskCEOCarlBasscalls“infinitecomputing.”
【18】Untilquiterecentlyrapidcommunication,informationacquisition,andknowledgesharing,especiallyoverlongdistances,wereessentiallylimitedtotheplanet’selite.Nowthey’remuchmoredemocraticandegalitarian,andgettingmoresoallthetime.ThejournalistA.J.Lieblingfamouslyremarkedthat,“Freedomofthepressislimitedtothosewhoownone.”Itisnoexaggerationtosaythatbillionsofpeoplewillsoonhaveaprintingpress,referencelibrary,school,andcomputerallattheirfingertips.
【19】Webelievethatthisdevelopmentwillboosthumanprogress.Wecan’tpredictexactlywhatnewinsights,products,andsolutionswillarriveinthecomingyears,butwearefullyconfidentthatthey’llbeimpressive.Thesecondmachineagewillbecharacterizedbycountlessinstancesofmachineintelligenceandbillionsofinterconnectedbrainsworkingtogethertobetterunderstandandimproveourworld.Itwillmakemockeryoutofallthatcamebefore.
Notes
1.ErikBynjolfsson:
HeisanAmericanacademicandSchusselFamilyProfessorofManagementattheM