国贸毕业外文文献及其翻译.doc
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China’sCompetitivePerformance:
AThreatToEastAsianManufacturedExports?
ThereisgrowingconcerninSoutheastandEastAsiaaboutthecompetitivethreatposedbyChina’sburgeoningexports,exacerbatedbyitsaccessiontotheWTO.Thethreatisnotconfinedtolabor-intensiveproductsbutspansthewholetechnologicalandskillrange.Atthesametime,Chinaisrapidlyraisingitsimportsfromtheregion,anditisnotclearwhetheritsburgeoningexportswilldamageitsneighbors.WeexaminethedimensionsofChina’scompetitivethreatinthe1990s,benchmarkingcompetitiveperformancebytechnologyandmarket,andfindsthatmarketsharelossesaresofarmainlyinlowtechnologyproducts,withJapanbeingthemostvulnerablemarket.Weanalyzemarketsharechangesandhighlightproductgroupsthataredirectlyorindirectlyexposedtoacompetitivethreat.Weexamineintra-regionaltradeandfindthatChinaanditsneighborsareraisinghightechnologyexportsintandem:
thenatureoftheinternationalproductionsystemsinvolvedleadtocomplementarilyratherthanconfrontation.Chinaisthusactingasanengineofexportgrowthforitsneighborsintermsofdirecttrade.However,thiswillchangeasChinamovesupthevaluechainandtakesontheactivitiesthathavedrivenEastAsianexportgrowth.
Introduction
ConcernaboutChina’scompetitivethreatiswidespread(indevelopedeconomieslikeUSaswellasdevelopingoneslikeMexico),butisstrongestinEastandSoutheastAsia.China’sburgeoningexports–backedbycheapandproductivelabor,alargestockoftechnicalmanpower,hugeanddiversifiedindustrialsector,attractivenesstoforeigninvestors,pragmaticuseofindustrialpolicy,and,now,freeraccesstoworldmarketsunderWTO–leadtoapocalypticvisionsofexportlosses.2Chinaismostthreateningtoneighborsthatrelyprimarilyonlowwagesfortheirexportadvantage.However,asitupgradesitsexportstructure,themoreadvancedeconomies(Singapore,HongKong,KoreaandTaiwan)alsofearfortheircompetitiveness.Thecurrenthollowingoutoftheirlow-endmanufacturingmaysoonextendtocomplexproduction,design,developmentandrelatedservices.DomesticmarketsarealsothreatenedbyChina,butsofarmostattentionseemstohavebeenonexports.
OffsettingthisthreatarethepromiseofthegiantChinesemarket(WTOaccessionisonlyoneofseveralinitiativestoliberalizeregionaltrade)andthepotentialforcollaborationwithitinexportingtotherestoftheworld.TradewithintheEastAsianregionisflourishing.Chinaisagrowingimporterfromtheregionofnaturalresourcesthatitdoesnotpossess.Itisalsoraisingimportsofmanufacturedproducts.Itsadvancedneighborsaresellingitsophisticatedconsumerandproducergoods,andusingitasabaseforprocessingexportstothirdcountries.Themultinationalcompanies(MNCs)thatnowaccountforaroundhalfofChineseexports(andfarmoreofitshightechnologyexports,UNCTAD,2002)areincorporatingChinaintoproductionsystemsspanningtheregion(‘fragmentation’and‘segmentation’areusedtodescribethisphenomenon3),sopromotingconsiderableintra-firmtradewithotherregionalbases.China’sownenterprisesarelikelytospecializewithrespecttoregionalcounterpartsandsoraiseintra-industrytradeindifferentiatedproducts.Perhapsworryinglyforcompetitorsinotherregions,suchintegrationcanleadChinatocomplementregionalcompetitivenessasawhole,ratherthansubstituteitsexportsforthoseofitsneighbors.
Itisdifficulttoassess,however,whethercomplementarilybetweenChinaandtheregionaleconomieswillfullyoffsetitscompetitivethreat.Thedynamicsandcomplexityoftheinteractionsmakeitimpossibletoquantifytheoutcome,eventopredictbroaddirections.ThebasicissueiswhetherChina’shigherwageneighborscanmoveintomoreadvancedexportactivitiesorfunctionsrapidlyenoughtopermitcontinuedexportexpansion.Iftheycan,theycancontinuewithexport-ledgrowth.Iftheycannot,theywillsufferexportdecelerationand/orashiftinspecializationtowardsprimaryproductsorslow-growingsegmentsofmanufacturedexports.Theoutcome,inotherwords,willdependontherelativegrowthoftechnologicalandothercapabilitiesinChineseandregionalenterprises,withtheformerhavingsuchadvantagesaslowerwages,largerscaleeconomies,greaterindustrialdepth,poolsoftechnicalskillandaproactivegovernment.However,asEastAsiancountriesdifferwidelyinthesefactors(Lall,2001),theyfacedifferentkindsandintensityofcompetitivethreat.Thenatureofthethreatdepends,moreover,ontheorganizationoftheproductionandmarketingsystem:
independentlocalfirmsarelikelytocompetemoredirectlythanaffiliatesofthesameMNCspreadoverdifferentcountriesinanintegratedsystem.
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