The New American DreamWord下载.docx
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salarming.TheRepublicanslookeerilylikethepartyofCalvinCoolidge,withataxcutoncorporatedividendsmasqueradingastheircatch-allsolutiontoastalledeconomy.TheDemocratshaveatleasttriedtohelp,withtaxcutsforlower-incomepeople,assistanceforstateandlocalgovernments,andextendedunemploymentbenefits.Butsuchfixesaremerelypalliatives.
Itistimeforachange.Themarketcrash,theensuingrecession,theworseningsocietalinequality--thesearenotnormalcyclicaldownturnsorgrowingpains.Weareinacrucialtransitionalstage.Thenatureofoureconomyischanging;
thenatureofwhatpeoplewantfromoureconomyischanging.Awholenewsystemforcreatingwealthistakingshape,anewkindofcapitalismthatispowerfulandfullofpromise,butfarfromfullyformed.Yetneitherpartyisproposingmeasuresthatmighthelpitalongbecauseneitherappearstograspwhat'
sgoingon.
Thekeyfactorgoinglargelyunheededistheriseofcreativityasthecentralforceinoureconomy.Withoutgreatwavesofnewproducts,technologiesandindustries,oureconomywouldbarelyhavegrownsincethedarkdaysofthe1970sandearly1980s.WithoutconstantinnovationnoneofourindustrieswillavoidthegrimfatethatbefellfactoriesandofficesacrosstheUnitedStates.Innovationdoesn'
tcomemagicallyfromaninvisiblehand.Itcomesfrompeople.Everyinnovation,beitthePalmPilot,
MyBigFatGreekWedding,orthetweaksthatmakeachemicalplantrunbetter,canbetracedtohumancreativity--topeoplehavingideasandfindingbetterwaysofdoingthings.
Inrecenthistory,thenumberofpeopledoingcreativeworkhasexploded.Thoseincreativeoccupations--fromengineersanddesignerstoartistsandwriterstohigher-endplanners,analysts,managers,andother"
creativeprofessionals"
--nowcomprisemorethan30percentoftheworkforce,upfromabout10percentin1900andonly20percentasrecentlyas1980.Creative-sectorworkerstodayoutnumberblue-collarworkers.Andthecreativesectoroftheeconomyaccountsfornearlyhalfofallwageandsalaryincome--$1.7trilliondollarsperyear.Theriseofthecreativesectorhasalsochangedthewaypeoplework,aswellastheirexpectations.TheAmericanDreamisnolongerjustaboutmoney.Betterpay,anicehouse,andarisingstandardoflivingwillalwaysbeattractive.Butmyresearchandothers'
showanotherfactoremerging:
ThenewAmericanDreamistomaintainareasonablelivingstandardwhiledoingworkthatweenjoydoing.Infact,manypeoplearewillingtotradeincomeforworktheyenjoy.I'
veinterviewedcountlessprofessionalswholeftsecurejobsforriskiernewventures,oftenatlowerpay,notforashotatastock-optionbonanzabutforachancetodoworkthatexcitesthem.
I'
veseenitonthelowerrungsoftheeconomicladderaswell.Whileunionsandpoliticiansbemoanthelossof"
good"
manufacturingjobs,suchasmachine-tooloperator,stateslikePennsylvaniahaveactuallyhadahardtimefillingthosejobsthatremain,evenascosmetologyschoolsfillupwithworking-classkidshopingtobehairstylists.Thehairsalontypicallypayslessandoffersfewerbenefitsthanthemachineshop--butit'
sseenasmorecreativeandstimulating.Thepointisnotthatweshouldalljoinstartupsorbecomehairstylists.ItissimplythatwhatgrowingnumbersofAmericanswanttodayistheverysamethingneededtostrengthenoureconomy.Notjustmorefinancialopportunity,butmorecreativeopportunity.
Yetbothpartiesdisregardthesedynamicsandputforth"
oldeconomy"
solutions:
taxcuts,financialincentives,andfiscalpump-priming,alongwithfinancialsafetynets,tariffs,andotherfavorstoprotectbigfirms.I'
veseensimilarmeasuresfailinnearly20yearsofresearchonstateandlocaleconomicdevelopment.Desperatetokeepfirmsandindustries,andtolurenewones,manycitiesandregionsbledthemselveswithtaxcuts,buildingprojects,andothercostlyincentives.Toupholdtheirsinking"
majorleague"
status,manysquanderedscarcepublicfundsondramaticgestureslikenewstadiums,whichdivertedthepublic'
sattentionbutaddedlittleornothingtotheirregion'
screativecapacity.Theresultwascounterproductive:
Existingfirmsandindustriesdownsizedtheirpayrollsanyway,whilegrowthflourishedinplacesliketheSanFranciscoBayAreaandBoston,whichactuallyhadhighercostsbutbettercreativeclimates.Todaywearereprisingthisflawedstrategyatthenationallevel.Therealkeytodrivingtheeconomyforwardand"
completing"
ouremergentcreativesystemdoesn'
tlieinfinancialincentivesalonebutinsummoninginnovation--humancreativity.
Norisitalwaystruethatthefinancialcarrotwilllurethecreativerabbitoutofthehat.Atthesystemlevel,thedriveforfinancialgainencouragesinnovationinmanyways,butcanalsostifleitorwasteit--byfavoringquick-paybackappliedR&
Doverbasicresearch;
bydivertinglotsofcreativeenergyintonarrowchannelslikehigh-marginluxurygoods;
bylettinginvestorgreedfuelspeculativebubblesthatburstandspoilthegameforeveryone.Andatthepersonallevel,moneyisvastlyoverratedasamotivatorofhumancreativity.ThereislittleevidencethatEdisonortheCuriestoiledattheirexperimentsforthechancetogetrich;
Edisonwassometimes
too
eagertoplowmoneybackintomoreexperiments.WhatdrovetheWrightbrotherstoinventwasnotfinancialcompetition,butcreativecompetition:
theracetobefirsttofly.It'
sthiskindof"
competition"
thattrulymotivatesmostscientistsandinventors,andevenfootballcoaches,artists,andrappers.Tokeepoureconomyvital,thebehaviorthatfundamentallyneedstobeincentivizedandsupportedisnotmoney-makingbutcreativeactivity.Whenmorepeopledothegoodworktheyenjoy,wealthwillfollow--nottheotherwayaround.Developingavisionforexpandingopportunitiesforcreativeworkisthegreatuntappedpoliticalopportunityforbothpartiesinthenewcentury.
Itisalsoaneconomicimperative.Othercountriesarecompetinginthecreativeeconomy.Irelandisnowtheworld'
ssecond-leadingexporterofsoftware,whileFinland,withNokia,isaworldleaderincellphones.Japaneseautofirmswerefirsttoputhybridandfuel-cellcarsonthestreet.IndiaandIndonesiaarerisingpowersinhigh-techfieldslikesoftwareandbiomedicine.Accordingtostudiesbymyresearchteam,CanadiancitieslikeTorontoandVancouvernowsurpassmanyU.S.metroareasonmeasuresofcreativeactivityandpotential.Inacreativity-driveneconomy,leadsaretenuousandevensmallplayerscanquicklycometothefore.
Ournationmustkeepbuildingthecreativecapacitythathasmadeusstrong.Andwemustavoidthetrapsthatholdusback--includingthosethatspringfromtheemergingcreativeageitself.
ANationofDesigners
Creativity--theabilitytocomeupwithandimplementanewidea--hasalwaysbeentheprimesourceofeconomicgrowthandadvantage.Inprehistory,somepeoplelearnedthatcultivatingplantsandanimalsworkedbetterthanhuntingandgathering.IntheIndustrialRevolution,ideascarriedtheday.Andinthelate1800sandearly1900s,thevitalityofcapitalismwascorrectlycreditedbytheeconomistJosephSchumpetertothe"
perennialgalesofcreativedestruction"
thatsweptthroughit--periodicallysweepingoutoldwaysofdoingthings,sweepinginthenew.
Inthelater20thcentury,thepaceofcreativityquickenedwhiletheprofitfromroutinizedproductionplummeted.Anewversionofcapitalismbeganevolvinginwhichcreativitywasnotjustperennialbutconstant,inwhichrapid-fireinnovationandcontinuousimprovementwerethenorm.TheUnitedStatessurgedtoleadthisemergentsystem.Itdidn'
thappenmerelybecausegovernmentstoodbackandletthefreemarketwork.Manyfactorscombinedtofostertheconditionsforhumancreativityandharnessitonawiderscalethanever.AfterWorldWarII,federalfundingforbasicresearchrampedupdramatically,asdidhighereducationthroughtheGIBill.Intheprivatesector,theventurecapitalindustryprovidedanewavenueforbringingresearchideastomarketandemployingbrightpeople.Thecombinationofthesefactorshasbeenpotent:
It'
sbeencalculatedthatthehigh-techcompaniesspunoutfromjustoneuniversity,MIT,wouldnowconstituteanationwiththe24th-largestGDPintheworld.
Therewereotherfactors.Inthe1990s,U.S.firms(belatedly)adoptedtheJapanese"
creativefactory"
methodswherebyworkerscontributeideasforimprovingproductivityandquality.Outsourcingplayedarolebyleadingtocreativespecialization:
Afirmcanfocusondesigningchipsorclothingandcontractotherstodothemanufacturing.Lastbutnotleast,theUnitedStatestookthecreativeleadbybeinganopenanddiversesociety.Immigrantsflockedhereandfueledourgrowth:
Nearly30percentofnewbusinessesinSiliconValleyinthe1980sand1990swerestartedbyforeign-bornpeople.Ourfreedomofexpressionhasallowednewartformstoflourish--fromrockmusictoindependentpublishingtodigitalmedia--andallowedartisticandtechnicalcreativitytocommingle.Theresultwasasustainedoutpouringofhumancreativeactivity,ineveryformimaginable.
Also,asVirginiaPostrelandothersargue,designor"
aesthetics"
hasbecomeincreasinglyimportanttowhatsells.TheUnitedStatesmakesfewerandfewerproducts--andsellsfewservicesontheworldmarket--thatarecommodit