电子商务英文参考文献Word文档格式.docx

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TheDevelopmentofE-commerce

Aperfectmarket

May13th2004

FromTheEconomistprintedition

E-commerceiscomingofage,saysPaulMarkillie,butnotinthewaypredictedinthebubbleyears

Whenthetechnologybubbleburstin2000,thecrazyvaluationsforonlinecompaniesvanishedwithit,andmanybusinessesfolded.Thesurvivorspluggedonasbesttheycould,encouragedbythegrowingnumberofinternetusers.Nowvaluationsarerisingagainandsomeofthedotcomsaremakingrealprofits,butthebusinessworldhasbecomemuchmorecautiousabouttheinternet’spotential.Thefunnythingisthatthewildpredictionsmadeattheheightoftheboom—namely,thatvastchunksoftheworldeconomywouldmoveintocyberspace—are,inonewayoranother,comingtrue.

Therawnumberstellonlypartofthestory.AccordingtoAmerica’sDepartmentofCommerce,onlineretailsalesintheworld’sbiggestmarketlastyearroseby26%,to$55billion.Thatsoundsalotofmoney,butitamountstoonly1.6%oftotalretailsales.Thevastmajorityofpeoplestillbuymostthingsinthegoodold“bricks-and-mortar”world.

Butthecommercedepartment’sfiguresdealwithonlypartoftheretailindustry.Forinstance,theyexcludeonlinetravelservices,oneofthemostsuccessfulandfastest-growingsectorsofe-commerce.InterActiveCorp（IAC）,theownerofand,alonesold$10billion-worthoftravellastyear—andithasplentyofcompetition,notleastfromairlines,hotelsandcar-rentalcompanies,allofwhichincreasinglysellonline.

Nordothefigurestakeinthingslikefinancialservices,ticket-salesagencies,pornography（a$2billionbusinessinAmericalastyear,accordingtoAdultVideoNews,atrademagazine）,onlinedatingandahostofotheractivities,fromtracingancestorstogambling（worthperhaps$6billionworldwide）.Theyalsoleaveoutpurchasesingreymarkets,suchastheonlinepharmaciesthatarethoughttoberesponsibleforagoodproportionofthe$700mthatAmericansspentlastyearonbuyingcut-priceprescriptiondrugsfromacrosstheborderinCanada.

Andthereismore.Thecommercedepartment’sfiguresincludethefeesearnedbyinternetauctionsites,butnotthevalueofgoodsthataresold:

anastonishing$24billion-worthoftradewasdonelastyearoneBay,thebiggestonlineauctioneer.Nor,bydefinition,dotheyincludethebillionsofdollars-worthofgoodsboughtandsoldbybusinessesconnectingtoeachotherovertheinternet.SomeoftheseB2Bservicesareproprietary;

forexample,Wal-Marttellsitssuppliersthattheymustuseitsownsystemiftheywanttobepartofitsannualturnoverof$250billion.

Soe-commerceisalreadyverybig,anditisgoingtogetmuchbigger.Buttheactualvalueoftransactionscurrentlyconcludedonlineisdwarfedbytheextraordinaryinfluencetheinternetisexertingoverpurchasescarriedoutintheofflineworld.Thatinfluenceisbecominganintegralpartofe-commerce.

Tostartwith,theinternetisprofoundlychangingconsumerbehaviour.OneinfivecustomerswalkingintoaSearsdepartmentstoreinAmericatobuyanelectricalappliancewillhaveresearchedtheirpurchaseonline—andmostwillknowdowntoadimewhattheyintendtopay.Moresurprisingly,threeoutoffourAmericansstartshoppingfornewcarsonline,eventhoughmostendupbuyingthemfromtraditionaldealers.Thedifferenceisthatthesecustomerscometotheshowroomarmedwithinformationaboutthecarandthebestavailabledeals.Sometimestheyevenhavecomputerprint-outsidentifyingtheparticularvehiclefromthedealer’sstockthattheywanttobuy.

Halfofthe60mconsumersinEuropewhohaveaninternetconnectionboughtproductsofflineafterhavinginvestigatedpricesanddetailsonline,accordingtoastudybyForrester,aresearchconsultancy（seechart1）.Differentcountrieshavedifferenthabits.InItalyandSpain,forinstance,peoplearetwiceaslikelytobuyofflineasonlineafterresearchingontheinternet.ButinBritainandGermany,thetwomostdevelopedinternetmarkets,thenumbersareevenlysplit.Forrestersaysthatpeoplebegintoshoponlineforsimple,predictableproducts,suchasDVDs,andthengraduatetomorecomplexitems.Used-carsalesarenowoneofthebiggestonlinegrowthareasinAmerica.

Peopleseemtoenjoyshoppingontheinternet,ifhighcustomer-satisfactionscoresareanyguide.Websitesaredoingevermoreandclevererthingstoserveandentertaintheircustomers,andseemsettotakeamuchbiggershareofpeople’soverallspendinginthefuture.

Thishasenormousimplicationsforbusiness.Acompanythatneglectsitswebsitemaybecommittingcommercialsuicide.Awebsiteisincreasinglybecomingthegatewaytoacompany’sbrand,productsandservices—evenifthefirmdoesnotsellonline.Auselesswebsitesuggestsauselesscompany,andarivalisonlyamouse-clickaway.Buteventhecoolestwebsitewillbelostincyberspaceifpeoplecannotfindit,socompanieshavetoensurethattheyappearhighupininternetsearchresults.

Formanyusers,asearchsiteisnowtheirpointofentrytotheinternet.Thebest-knownsearchenginehasalreadyenteredthelexicon:

peoplesaytheyhave“Googled”acompany,aproductortheirplumber.Thesearchbusinesshasalsodevelopedoneofthemosteffectiveformsofadvertisingontheinternet.Anditisalreadythebestwaytoreachsomeconsumers:

teenagersandyoungmenspendmoretimeonlinethanwatchingtelevision.Allthismeansthatsearchisturningintotheinternet’snextbigbattlegroundasGoogledefendsitselfagainstchallengesfromYahoo!

andMicrosoft.

Theotherwaytogetnoticedonlineistooffergoodsandservicesthroughoneofthebigsitesthatalreadygetalotoftraffic.Ebay,Yahoo!

andAmazonarebecominghugetradingplatformsforothercompanies.Buttotakepart,acompany’sproductshavetostanduptointensepricecompetition.Peoplecheckonlineprices,comparethemwiththoseintheirlocalhighstreetandmaywelltakeapeekatwhatcustomersinothercountriesarepaying.Evenifwebsitesarepreventedfromshippingtheirgoodsabroad,thereareplentyofweb-basedentrepreneursreadytooblige.

Whatisgoingonhereisarbitragebetweendifferentsaleschannels,saysMohanbirSawhney,professoroftechnologyattheKelloggSchoolofManagementinChicago.Forinstance,someonemightusetheinternettoresearchdigitalcameras,butvisitaphotographicshopforahands-ondemonstration.“I’llthinkaboutit,”theywilltellthesalesassistant.Backhome,theywilluseasearchenginetofindthelowestpriceandbuyonline.Inthisway,consumersare“deconstructingthepurchasingprocess”,saysProfessorSawhney.Theyareunbundlingproductinformationfromthetransactionitself.

Itisnotonlypricetransparencythatmakesinternetconsumerssopowerful;

itisalsothewaythenetmakesiteasyforthemtobefickle.Iftheydonotlikeawebsite,theyswiftlymoveon.“Thewebisthemostselfishenvironmentintheworld,”saysDanielRosensweig,chiefoperatingofficerofYahoo!

“Peoplewanttousetheinternetwhenevertheywant,howtheywantandforwhatevertheywant.”

Yahoo!

isnotaloneindefiningitsstrategyasworkingoutwhatitscustomers（260muniqueuserseverymonth）arelookingfor,andthentryingtogiveittothem.Thefirstthingtheywantistobecomebetterinformedaboutproductsandprices.“Weoperateourbusinessonthatbelief,”saysJeffBezos,Amazon’schiefexecutive.Amazonbecamefamousforbooks,butlongagobranchedoutintosellinglotsofotherthingstoo;

amongitslatestventuresarehealthproducts,jewelleryandgourmetfood.Apartfromcheapandbulkyitemssuchasgardenrakes,MrBezosthinkshecansellmostthings.AndsodothemillionsofpeoplewhouseeBay.

Andyetnobodythinksrealshopsarefinished,especiallythoseoperatinginnichemarkets.Manybricks-and-mortarbookshopsstillmakeagoodliving,asdofleamarkets.Butmanyrecordshopsandtravelagentscouldbeinforatoughertime.ErikBlachford,theheadofIAC’stravelsideandbossofExpedia,thebiggestinternettravelagent,thinksonlinetravelbookingsinAmericacouldquicklymovefrom20%ofthemarkettomorethanhalf.MrBezosreckonsonlineretailersmightcapture10-15%ofretailsalesoverthenextdecade.Thatwouldrepresentamassiveshiftinspending.

Howwilltraditionalshopsrespond?

MichaelDell,thefounderofDell,whichleadsthepersonal-computermarketbysellingdirecttothecustomer,haslongthoughtmanyshopswillturnintoshowrooms.Therearealreadysignsofchangeonthehighstreet.ThelatestAppleandSonystoresaredesignedtodisplayproducts,inthefullexpectationthatmanypeoplewillbuyonline.Tosomeextent,theonlineandofflineworldsmaymerge.Multi-channelsellingcouldinvolveacombinationoftraditionalshops,aprintedcatalogue,ahome-shoppingchannelonTV,aphone-inorderserviceandane-commerce-enabledwebsite.Butoftenitislikelytobethewebsitewherecustomerswillbeencouragedtoplacetheirorders.

Oneofthebiggestcommercialadvantagesoftheinternetisaloweringoftransactioncosts,whichusuallytranslatesdirectlyintolowerpricesfortheconsumer.So,ifthelowestpricescanbefoundontheinternetandpeopleliketheservicetheyget,whywouldtheybuyanywhereelse?

Onereasonmaybeconvenience;

another,concernaboutfraud,whichposesthebiggestthreattoonlinetrade.Butaslongastheinternetcontinuestodeliverpriceandproductinformationquickly,cheaplyandsecurely,e-commercewillcontinuetogrow.Increasingly,companieswillhavetoassumethatcustomerswill