耶鲁大学金融市场英文文本FinancialMarketsLecture15TranscriptWord格式文档下载.docx

耶鲁大学金融市场英文文本FinancialMarketsLecture15TranscriptWord格式文档下载.docx

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Goodtoseeyou,Bob.

Itwouldbereallyniceifyoucangivesomecluestoourstudentshere,whomanyofthemarethemselveslaunchingoutoncareers,ofhowyougotstartedonthisandwhatyourphilosophyisandwhatyouwouldrecommendtothem.

Thecareeryou'

reaskingabout--IwentdowntoWallStreetbackin--waybackinthe'

60sandIthoughtIwasreally--IhadgonetoPrinceton,areallygoodschool.Ihadgottenintherefromatoughhighschool;

Iwasthefirsttogofrommyhighschool.NobodybelievedIcoulddoit--theynevertookanIvyLeague--theIvyLeaguenevertookanybodyfromthisschoolIwentto.Butanyway,Iwent;

gotinandleftthereandIthoughtIwasarealsmartguy.Cutitshort--wentdowntoWallStreetandworkedwithJackDreyfusandthenIwasplayingthemarketin1961.ThatshowshowoldIam.Andinabullmarketyoumakeagreatdealofmoneybydoingleverage.It'

salittlebitliketodaywithalltheleveragethatwehadandnowmightbecomingtofruition.

IwasborrowingmoneyandboughtalltheseconvertiblesandIthoughtIwasageniusandJackDreyfussaid,you'

regoingtoloseallyourmoney.Ihadmadeafewbucksplayingpokerandthat'

showIstartedwithabouteight,tenthousanddollarsandImadeallthismoneybyborrowingat90%.IwouldgooutandIwasmakingalotmoreintwoweeksthanmyfathermadeintwoyears.Myfathersaid,wellyouknow,putthemoneyaway.Isaid,noDad,I'

mreallygoingtomakeafortunehere.So,Iwentout--Irememberonce--andboughtaGalaxyconvertible.Itwasabeautifulcar.Ihadabeautifulgirlfriend;

shewasamodel--itwasjustprettynice.

Whathappened?

Thecrashcamein1962.Iwaswipedoutinoneday;

Ididn'

tevenhavethepokerwinningsleft.Itellyou,Ican'

trecallifthecarleftfirstorthegirlleftfirst,butitwasprettyclose--maybethesamedayactually.Afterthat,IlearnedyouhavetolearnsomethingandIbecameanexpertinoptions.Afterthat,Ibuiltafollowingandbuiltabigfollowingandabigcommissionbasebyjustlearningoneareaverywell.Probably,IknewthatareabetterthanalmostanyoneonWallStreet.Nottosoundtoopresumptuous,butveryfewpeopleknewit,soitdoesn'

tmeanverymuch.Butinanyevent,Ibuiltupabigfollowingandin1968boughtaseatonthestockexchangewiththehelpofaoneofmyuncles.Bythattime,Ihadsavedaprettybigamountofmoneyforthosedays.

Then,Igotintoarbitrage--butnotmerger,bonafide.That'

ssomethingelseyoucould--youcanstilldoittoday,butit'

smuchtougherwithallthesecomputers.So,Idon'

tdoitbecauseIdon'

tunderstandthecomputers;

they'

rebeyondme,soIdon'

tworkwiththemtoowell.I'

mbeingalittlefacetious,butnottoofacetious.Youcouldbuydifferentconvertiblebondsandshortthestocksagainstthem.Youhadnorisk,butyoucouldmakealotofmoneyandeventuallywedidrealwellwiththat.

WhatIdotodaystillisprettymuchthesameidea.Youbuystocksinacompanythatischeapandyoulookattheassetvalueofthecompaniesthatyoubuythestocksinanditbecomesalittlemorecomplex.Basically,youlookforthereasonthatthey'

rereallycheapandthemajorreasonisoften--andusually--verypoormanagement.Inasense,it'

slikeanarbitrage.Yougoin;

youbuyalotofstockinacompany;

andyouthentrytomakechangesatthecompany.Today,ifyoureadthenewspaperstomorrow,you'

llread--we'

retryingtodothesamethingatMotorolaandifyoubothertoreadTheWallStreetJournaltomorrow--ormaybeTheTimes,Idon'

tknow--you'

llseealittlebitofwhatwe'

retryingtodothere.We'

retryingtogetthemtochangethestructureofthecompany.Wethinktheboardisaverypoorboardthereandwe'

retryingtochangewhathappens.

ThethingaboutcorporateAmerica--fewpeoplethatgotocollege,likewhereyouarenow,andmostpeopleinAmericadon'

trealizehowpoorlymostofourcompaniesareruninthiscountry,withmanyexceptions.They'

rereallyverypoorandwhenyougetinsidethecompanyyourealizethis.Therealreasonisthere'

snoaccountability;

there'

snocorporatedemocracyandI'

vebeensayingthat,prophesyingit,writingaboutit.Thereasonthatwecanmakesomuchmoneywhenwegointooneoftheseis--I'

mnotevenamanager;

InevertookacourseinmanagementandIwouldn'

tprofesstoreallyknowmuchbutIdon'

tmicromanage--Iputinaverygoodmanager.Theycuttheheckoutofourcosts,buttheychangethestructureofthecompanies.ThisistheprobleminAmericatoday,inmyopinion--thatwearebasicallyundermanaged.Wecan'

tcompetebecausethebestandthebrightestdon'

tgettobeatthetopofthecorporateladder.

Ihaveasortofametaphorthat'

salittlefacetious,butnotcompletely,aboutit.Icallitanti-Darwinian;

it'

santi-DarwinianinAmerica'

scorporations.Thatmeans,aguygoestocollegeandthisistheguythatgetstobetheCEOand,yet,he'

sincollegeandhe'

sthekindofguythatwasthepresidentofthefraternity.Now,allthesepresidentsoffraternitiesaren'

tbadguys,butbasicallythenormalguythatIrememberatcollegewas--he'

salwaysthereatthefraternityortheeatingclub.He'

salwaystheretobethere.Ifyouhaveabadday,youwalkovertotheclubandyou'

refeelingbad--yourgirlfriendleftyou;

youdidbadonatestscoreorwhatever--andyougooverthere;

he'

salwaysthere.

Hebuysyouadrinkandyousitaroundwithhim;

hecommiserateswithyou;

youplayalittlepoolorwhateverandhetellsyouwhateveritis.Yeah,mygirlleftme;

yeahwell,they'

reallnogood--usualconversationbackandforth.Whatwouldhappenwouldbe--you'

dliketheguy.Youcan'

thelpbutlikehim;

youusedtowonderalittlebit,whenthehelldidhedoanywork?

But,hewasalwaysthereforyou.Henevermademanywaves;

heneversaidanythingtooobtrusive;

or,henevershowedtoomuchintelligence.But,hewasagoodguy.Hegoes--thatsameguygoesoutintocorporateAmericaandpoliticallyhe'

sastute.Heknowshowtogetalongwithpeopleandheneverreallyrockstheboat.Henevercomesupwithanygreatidea;

snotathreattohissuperiorand,asaresult,hemovesuptheladderbecause,really,incorporateAmerica,there'

sreallyverylittleaccountability.WhathappensincorporateAmerica--hemovesupthatladder.

There'

sagoodshow,"

HowtoSucceedinBusiness,"

thatwasoutmanyyearsagothatsortofsumsitup.Ifyousay--ifageniushasanideaincorporateAmerica--thegeniushasanidea;

thenextideais,theygivehimanideatoresign.So,hemovesalongtheladderandhegetsupslowlyuptothetop.Nowhehastwoattributes:

slikeable,he'

spoliticallyastuteandhe'

sasurvivor--he'

snotreallyathreatandhegetstothetop.Thesearetheattributesoftoday'

sCEOsforthemostpart,withexceptions.Hedoesn'

trufflefeathers;

hedoesn'

tgettheboardupset;

andashemovesuptheladder,hefinallygetstobenumbertwototheCEO.Now,theCEOhasthesameattributes--wherehedoesn'

twanttobethreatenedandhe'

sasurvivor.TheCEOwillneverletanybodybenumbertwowho'

ssmarterthanheis.So,bydefinition,theassistanttotheCEOisalittledumberthantheCEO;

nowthisguynowistheassistant.Theboardlikeshim;

theCEOeventuallyretiresandtheymakethisguytheCEO--thefraternitypresidentwe'

retalkingabout.Nowhe'

snowtheheadguy--theCEO--andhe'

llbringinanumbertwoguythat'

salittledumberthanheisbecausehedoesn'

twanttobethreatened.So,bydefinition,we'

llberunbymoronsprettysoon.

We'

renottoofarfromthatrightnow--fromthatpointinoureconomichistory.Thisisaproblemthatwehave.Now,we'

vebeenabletodookayinthiscountryandprettywellevenwiththefactthatwe'

rebadlymanagedbecauseoverthelasttwentyyearswe'

vehadaprettyfreeride.We'

vegottenfromallovertheworld--thewholeglobaleconomyhasbeenboomingandwe'

vebeenabletogetcheapgoodsandthesecheapgoodskeptusfromhavinginflation.Verysimplyput--ifyoudon'

thaveinflation,it'

seasyfortheFederalReservetokeeppumpingmoneyintoaneconomy;

so,moneykeptflowing.Youweresortofinapunchbowl.Thecountrywasatapartyandwekeptdrinkingfromthispunchbowl,enjoyingourselves,andtherestoftheworldwouldtakeourdollars.Theywouldt