浅谈发展中国家经济增长模型Word文件下载.docx
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1.0Introduction
Thejudgmentofmacro-economicsituationisanevergreentopicintheeconomiccircle,fortheeconomicsituationscarcelyeverremainsanidealbalancebetweentheaggregatedemandandaggregatesupply.Forexample,thepersistentdeflationlastingfor9yearsinChinaisatopicthatattractsourattentionallthetime.WhatdoestheEconomicGrowthTheoryinclude?
AndisitapplicabletothedevelopingcountriessuchasChina?
Withregardtothesequestions,whatwecandoismakinganattempttostudythemonly.InthedevelopmentprocessofEconomicGrowthTheory,thereformsthreemaintheories,namely,ClassicalGrowthTheory,Neo-classicalGrowthTheoryandNewGrowthTheory.However,thesetheoreticalresearchesaremostlybasedonthecircumstancesofdevelopedcountries.Uptonow,thequestionwhethertheresearchmodelissuitableforthedevelopingcountriesisstillunresolved.Manyscholarsarecommittedtoconstructingtheeconomicgrowthmodelofthedevelopingcountriesbyvariousmodelsandmeteringmodelsalltheway.Nevertheless,duetothespecialcircumstancesandcultureofthedevelopedcountries,manymodels’hypotheticbasisandreferencestandardarenotcompletelyapplicable.Therefore,theopinionsaboutitstillvary.Onthebasisofexistingtheories,thispaperfirstsummarizestheresearchlimitationsofeachtheoryandtheirapplicationprospectsinthedevelopingcountries.Second,makeselectiveanalysisontheapplicationofaccumulationofcapital,technologicalchangeandinstitutionaldevelopmentintheneweconomicgrowththeory.Last,discussthepracticalsignificanceoftheeconomicgrowththeoryinthedevelopingcountries.
2.0TheLimitationsofEachEconomicGrowthTheory
2.1Harrod-DomarModelandtheSavingsRatiooftheDevelopingCountries
Harrod-Domarmodelhasadoptedthefixedproductionfunction,Capital—Laborrate.Inthismodel,economicgrowth(G)ismainlyassociatedwiththerateofcapitalaccumulation,includingsavingsratioandtherateofinvestment.TheproportionofcapitalandoutputisV.Undercertainconditions,G=S/V.Andbecauseoftheoverabundanthypothesis,Ga=Gw=Gn,whichistooharsh,thismodelisalmostanidealinreality(RoyForbesHarrod,1948).Besides,inthedevelopingcountries,thereexistsdifferentcultureandconsumptionhabits,whichmakesthesavingsunabletoconverttoinvestmentfullyandtheabilityofattractingforeigncapitallimited.Soitisimpossibleforthemtoachieveeconomicgrowthdrawnonthismodel.TaketheeconomicgrowthofChinaforanexample.Before1990,Chineseeconomygrewtardily,chieflyfortheinstitutionalimmobilityandsingleconsumptionpattern.Onaccountofcurrentinstitutionalfactor,themajorityofsocialfixedinvestmentisfromthegovernmentandthechannelofcreditpolicyunderthemacroeconomicregulationofthegovernment.Alargequantityofhouseholdsavingshaslittlepullingpowertotheconsumption.Restrictedbypoliciesandthestateofindustrialdevelopment,theausgangofindividualinvestmentisturningintotheindustrialfield,shapingtheunreasonable,repetitiveandlow-effectiveinvestmentstructure.Asaresult,onlyreferringtotherateofcapitalaccumulation,ChineseeconomyhasdeviatedtheHarrod-Domarmodel.
2.2TechnologyChangeandGovernmentalAction
Perfectcompetitionisanimportantpresuppositionofneo-classicalmodel.However,forthedevelopingcountries,perfectcompetitionisafargoal.Moreover,technologychangeitselfhasincludedthegenerationofnewideas,whilenewideasownthefeaturesofnon-rivalrypublicgoods.
Hence,merelythetwohavenotmatchedwiththemeasurementofthemodel.
Inviewoftheinsufficiencyofthehypothesisinneo-classicalmodel,Harrod-Domarmodel(1962)introducedanewconceptthatthegovernmentintervenesintheeconomyinacertaindegree.Soonafterwards,Romarhadbuilthisownknowledgespillovermodel.Rumorsupposed:
Knowledgeistheproductionwhenthemanufacturerswhopursuefortheprofitmaximizationmakeinvestmentdecisions.Whileknowledgehasspillovereffect,theknowledgeproducedbyanymanufacturersallcouldimprovetheproductivityofthewholesociety.ThemodelofRomardeems,endogenoustechnologychangeistheonlysourceofeconomicgrowth.TheknowledgespillovermodelofRomar(1986)couldgivepartialinterpretationwhysomenationsarepoorandsomearerich.Rumormadeafurtherhypothesisinhisendogenoustechnologychangemodel.Technologychangeistheresultthattheprincipalpartofthosewhoseekforprofitmaximizationmakeinvestmentoptions.Themodel’smainconclusionsare:
humancapitalstockdeterminesthegrowthrate;
Inthesteadystate,thecapitalinvestedtoresearchanddevelopmentwouldbeless;
seekingforintegrationwiththeworldmarketwouldboostthegrowthrate;
vastpopulationisunnecessaryforeconomicgrowth.Whereasthetheorycontradictswiththestatusquoofdevelopingcountries.Thetechnicallevelofmostdevelopingcountriesislowonaccountofinsufficientcomprehensivenationalpowerandunsoundeducationsystem.Onthecontrary,becauseofoverabundantpopulation,theireconomicgrowthismainlydrivenbythelaborintensiveenterprises.Inreality,theseveralprimeindicatorsruncountertothemodel.Ontheotherhand,overmuchgovernmentintervention,suchasinChina,alsocouldcounterbalancetheeconomicgrowth.
Asamatteroffact,theeconomicgrowththeoryconstructedbyRomar(1986),Lucas(1988),andsoon,onthefoundationofwhichbyArrow,etc.,hasn’tindeedintroducedtechnologychangeintothegrowthmodel.Becauseinthesemodels,withthedevelopmentofeconomy,thereturnoninvestmentofallcapitalgoods,containinghumancapital,woulddecreaseprogressively,whichmakesthegrowthinthemodelhavetobesodefinite.
Knowledgespilloverandtheexternalityofhumancapitaljustslowdownthespeedofattenuation,insteadoferadicatingtheattenuation.Bringingresearch&
developmenttheoryandtheideaofnon-perfectcompetitioninthegrowthmodeloriginatedfromthecontributionofRomar(1987and1990).Inthesemodels,technologychangerootedincompetitiveresearchanddevelopmentactivitieswhichcouldacquireexpostfactomonopolyability.Onlyifthoughtshaven’tdriedup,theeconomywouldkeepalong-termpositivegrowthrate.Consequently,aconclusiongottenfromthesemodelsisthatthegovernment’sactionexertsaninfluenceonthelong-termeconomicgrowthrate.
2.3InstitutionalFactor
Economicgrowththeoryhasgonethroughthreephasessuccessively,ClassicalGrowthTheory,Neo-classicalGrowthTheoryandNewGrowthTheory.ThoughNewEconomicGrowthTheoryhasalreadyhadtechnologygeneratedinternally,ithasn’ttakeninstitutionalfactorintoconsideration.Peoplecometorealizethesignificanteffectofinstitutiononeconomicgrowth.Intermsofsomeeconomists’viewpoints,institutionalchangeistherealcauseofeconomicgrowth.Whiletechnologychangeisnomorethanthemanifestationofeconomicgrowth.
However,accordingtothetheoryofproductivityandproductionrelationnarratedinthe“CapitalTheory”ofMarx,technologybelongstothecategoryofproductivity,whileinstitutionbelongstothecategoryofproductionrelation;
technologychangedeterminesthechangeofinstitution,whileinstitutionalchangeaffectstechnologychangeinturn(Marx,1910).Thiscontradictionmaybecouldbeexplainedwiththefollowingpoints.Inmanycases,thespeedoftechnologychangeisfasterthanthespeedofinstitutionalchangemoreoftenthannot.Inotherwords,thecontributiontoeconomicgrowthcausedbytechnologychangeiseasytobeobservedbypeople,whilethecontributionofinstitutionalchangeislikelytobeunconspicuous,especiallywhentheinstitutioninanequilibriumstatus.Maybeitisoneofthereasonswhysomanyeconomistshaveneglectedthevitalfunctionofinstitutionalchangeoneconomicgrowth.Nevertheless,inthespecifichistoricalperiodofsomecertaincountries,thesharpchangeofinstitution(institutionhasn’tarrivedattheequilibriumstatus)ledtoarapidgrowthoftheireconomy,whichmayontheothersidecauseeconomistsputtoomuchemphasisontheroleofinstitutionalchangetotheeconomicgrowth.TheanalysismadebyHare(2004)couldberegardedasanevidenceoftheabovepoints.Toone’sregret,NewGrowthTheoryhasfocuseditsattentionontechnologychange,buthasn’tdrawninstitutionalchangeintoformaleconomicgrowthmodel,whichgetsthefunctionofinstitutionhardtobemeasured.
3.0TheApplicationofEconomicGrowthTheoryinDevelopingCountries
3.1TechnologyChange---theBottleneckfortheDevelopingCountriestoDevelop
Developingcountrieshaveexperienceddecadeslongperiodthateconomydevelopsslowly.Sofar,theyhavetransferredfromsellers’markettobuyers’marketonthewholeandtheaverageprofitrateofthematerialcapitalinvestmentbeginstodrop.Itistherepresentationofthelawofdiminishingmarginalreturnsinamacroscopiclevel.NewGrowthTheoryholds:
thepositiveexternalityofnew-knowledgeproductionandtheaccumulationofhumancapitalarehelpfultoholdthephenomenonofdiminishingreturnsbackinmaterialcapitalinvestment.Inordertoachievesustainableandsteadyeconomicgrowth,thedevelopingcountrieshavetorelyontheproductionofnewknowledgeandnewideastomakeupthedropofprofitsbroughtbytheproducts.Butduetothefactthatinnovativetechnologiescouldbeduplicatedbytheothers,theproducers(namely,theinnovator)ofnewknowledgeandnewideasarenotabletoobtainalltheprofitscreatedbyinnovation.E