《曼昆宏观经济学》第二十四章MeasuringtheCostofLivingWord文件下载.docx

《曼昆宏观经济学》第二十四章MeasuringtheCostofLivingWord文件下载.docx

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Problemsinmeasuringthecostofliving

TheGDPdeflatorversustheCPI

•Correcteconomicvariablesfortheeffectsofinflation

Dollarfiguresfromdifferenttimes

Indexation

Realandnominalinterestrates

THECONSUMERPRICEINDEX

•Theconsumerpriceindex（CPI）isameasureoftheoverallcostofthegoodsandservicesboughtbyatypicalconsumer.

•TheBureauofLaborStatisticsreportstheCPIeachmonth.

•Itisusedtomonitorchangesinthecostoflivingovertime.

资料来源，国家统计爲新华社记者周大庆编制。

•FixtheBasket:

Determinewhatpricesaremostimportanttothetypicalconsumer.

-TheBureauofLaborStatistics（BLS）identifiesamarketbasketofgoodsandservicesthetypicalconsumerbuys.

一TheBLSconductsmonthlyconsumersurveystosettheweightsforthepricesofthosegoodsandservices・

•FindthePrices:

Findthepricesofeachofthegoodsandservicesinthebasketforeachpointintime.

•ComputetheBasket'

sCost:

Usethedataonpricestocalculatethecostofthebasketofgoodsandservicesatdifferenttimes.

•ChooseaBaseYearandComputetheIndex:

一Designateoneyearasthebaseyear,makingitthebenchmarkagainstwhichotheryearsarecompared・

一Computetheindexbydividingthepriceofthebasketinoneyearbythepriceinthebaseyearandmultiplyingby100.

Comsumerpriceindex（CPI）

xlOO

_Priceofbasketofgoodsandservices

Priceofbasketinbaseyear

•Computetheinflationrate:

Theinflationrateisthepercentagechangeinthepriceindexfromtheprecedingperiod.

•TheInflationRate

一Theinflationrateiscalculatedasfollows:

CPIinYear1

T.厂.“小CPIinYear2-CPIinYear1InflationRateinYear2

Table1CalculatingtheConsumerPriceIndexand"

theInflationRate:

AnExample丄

Step1:

SurveyConsumerstoDetermineaFixedBasketofGoods4hotdogs,2hamburgers

Step2:

FindthePriceofEachGoodinEachYear

Year

PriceofHotDogsPriceofHamburgers

2001

2002

2003

$1$2

23

34

（$1perhotdogx4hotdogs）+（$2perhamburgerx2hamburgers）=$8

（$2perhotdogx4hotdogs）十（$3perhamburgerx2hamburgers）=$14

（$3perhotdogx4hotdogs）+（$4perhamburgerx2hamburgers）=$20

Step4:

ChooseOneYearasaBaseYear（2001）andComputetheConsumerPriceIndexinEachYear

（$8/$8）X100=100

（$14/$8）X100=175

（$20/$8）X100=250

Yable1CalculatingtheConsumerPriceIndexand「theInflationRate:

AnExample£

Step5:

UsetheConsumerPriceIndextoComputetheInflationRatefromPreviousYear

（175—100）/100X100=75%

（250一175）/175X100=43%

HowtheConsumerPriceIndexIsCalculated

•CalculatingtheConsumerPriceIndexandtheInflationRate:

AnotherExample

-BaseYearis2002.

-Basketofgoodsin2002costs$1,200.

-Thesamebasketin2004costs$1,236.

-CPI=（$1,236/$1,200）x100=103.

-Pricesincreased3percentbetween2002and2004.

Foodandbeverages

17%、

Transportation

Educationandcommunication

6%

41%

Housing

Medicalcare

Recreation

Othergoods

Apparelandservices

食品:

31.79%

China

烟酒及用品：

3.49%

居住:

17.22%

交通运输：

9.95%

医疗保健个人用品：

9.64%

衣着:

.52%

家庭设备及维修服务：

5.64%

娱乐教育文化用品及服务：

13.75%

Discussion

•Whichdoyouthinkhasagreatereffectontheconsumerpriceindex:

a10percentincreaseinthepriceofchickenora10percentincreaseinthepieceofcaviar?

Why?

ProblemsinMeasuringtheCostofLiving

•TheCPIisanaccuratemeasureoftheselectedgoodsthatmakeupthetypicalbundle,butitisnotaperfectmeasureofthecostofliving.

•WHY?

•Substitutionbias

•Introductionofnewgoods

•Unmeasuredqualitychanges

•SubstitutionBias

一Thebasketdoesnotchangetoreflectconsumerreactiontochangesinrelativeprices・

•Consumerssubstitutetowardgoodsthathavebecomerelativelylessexpensive.

•Theindexoverstatestheincreaseincostoflivingbynotconsideringconsumersubstitution.

•IntroductionofNewGoods

一Thebasketdoesnotreflectthechangeinpurchasingpowerbroughtonbytheintroductionofnewproducts.

•Newproductsresultingreatervariety,whichinturnmakeseachdollarmorevaluable・

•Consumersneedfewerdollarstomaintainanygivenstandardofliving.

•UnmeasuredQualityChanges

一Ifthequalityofagoodrisesfromoneyeartothenext,thevalueofadollarrises,evenifthepriceofthegoodstaysthesame.

一Ifthequalityofagoodfallsfromoneyeartothenext,thevalueofadollarfalls,evenifthepriceofthegoodstaysthesame・

一TheBLStriestoadjustthepriceforconstantquality,butsuchdifferencesarehardtomeasure.

•Thesubstitutionbias,introductionofnewgoods,andunmeasuredqualitychangescausetheCPItooverstatethetruecostofliving.

-TheissueisimportantbecausemanygovernmentprogramsusetheCPItoadjustforchangesintheoveralllevelofprices・

-TheCPIoverstatesinflationbyabout1percentagepointperyear.

GDPdeflator=

NominalGDP

•TheGDPdeflatoriscalculatedasfollows:

RealGDP•TheBLScalculatesotherpricesindexes:

一Theindexfordifferentregionswithinthecountry.

一Theproducerpriceindex,whichmeasures

thecostofabasketofgoodsandservices

boughtbyfirmsratherthanconsumers・

•IfthepriceofaNavysubmarinerises,istheconsumepriceindexortheGDPdeflatoraffectedmore?

•EconomistsandpolicymakersmonitorboththeGDPdeflatorandtheconsumerpriceindextogaugehowquicklypricesarerising.

•Therearetwoimportantdifferencesbetweentheindexesthatcancausethemtodiverge.

•TheGDPdeflatorreflectsthepricesofallgoodsandservicesproduceddomestically,whereas...

•...theconsumerpriceindexreflectsthepricesofallgoodsandservicesboughtbyconsumers.

•Theconsumerprice/nc/excomparesthepriceofafixedbasketofgoodsandservicestothepriceofthebasketinthebaseyear（onlyoccasionallydoestheBLSchangethebasket）...

•...whereastheGDPdeflatorcomparesthepriceofcurrentlyproducedgoodsandservicestothepriceofthesamegoodsandservicesinthebaseyear.

Figure2TwoMeasuresofInflation

•Priceindexesareusedtocorrectfortheeffectsofinflationwhencomparingdollarfiguresfromdifferenttimes.

DollarFiguresfromDifferentTimes

•Dothefollowingtoconvert（inflate）Babe

Ruth'

swagesin1931todollarsin2001:

c[c[Pricelevelin2001

Salary200]=Salary1Q31x

7200171931Pricelevelin1931

177

=$80,000x-^

15.2

=$931,579

TabIe^2ThelVIosFPopuTarMovles^fAllTimes，InflationAdjusted

Film

YearofRelease

TotalDomesticGross（inmillionsof2001dollars）

1.GonewiththeWind

1939

$1,002

2.StarWars

1977

866

3.TheSoundofMusic

1965

695

4.E.T.:

TheExtra-Terrestrial

1982

687

5.Titanic

1997

640

6.TheTenCommandments

1956

639

7.Jaws

1975

625

8.DoctorZhivago

591

9.TheJungleBook

1967

519

10.SnowWhiteandtheSevenDwarfs

1937

518

•Whensomedollaramountisautomaticallycorrectedforinflationbylaworcontract,theamountissaidtobeindexedforinflation.

RealandNominalInterestRates

•Interestrepresentsapaymentinthefutureforatransferofmoneyinthepast.

•Thenominalinterestrateistheinterestrateusuallyreportedandnotcorrectedforinflation.

-Itistheinterestratethatabankpays.

•Therealinterestrateisthenominalinterestratethatiscorrectedfortheeffectsofinflation.

•Youborrowed$1,000foroneyear.

•Nominalinterestratewas15%.

•Duringtheyearinflationwas10%.

Realinterestrate=Nominalinterestrate—

Inflation

=15%・10%=5%

Figure3RealandNominalInterestRates

•Overalongtime,thepriceofacandybarrosefrom$0.10to$0.60.overthesameperiod,theconsumerpriceindexrosefrom150to300.Adjustedforoverallinflation,howmuchdidthepriceofthecandybarchange?

Supposethataborrowerandalenderagreeonthenominalinterestratetobepaidonaloan.Theninflationturnsouttobehigherthantheybothexpected.

•a.Istherealinterestrateonthisloanhigherorlowerthanexpected?

•Doesthelendergainorlosefromthis

unexpectedlyhighinflation?

Doestheborrowergainorlose?

•Inflationduringthe1970swasmuchhigherthanmostpeoplehadexpectedwhenthedecadebegan.Howdidthisaffecthomeownerswhoobtainedfixed-ratemortgagesduringthe1960s?

Howdiditaffectthebanksthatlentthemoney?

•Theconsumerpriceindexshowsthecostofabasketofgoodsandservicesrelativetothecostofthesamebasketinthebaseyear.

•Theindexisusedtomeasuretheoveralllevelofpricesintheeconomy.

•ThepercentagechangeintheCPImeasurestheinflationrate.

•Theconsumerpriceindexisanimperfectmeasureofthecostoflivingforthefollowingthreereasons:

substitutionbias,theintroductionofnewg