克鲁格曼国际经济学第六版的教师手册含英文习题答案imch15Word格式.docx
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PurchasingPowerParity
TheRelationshipBetweenPPPandtheLawofOnePrice
AbsolutePPPandRelativePPP
ALong-RunExchange-RateModelBasedonPPP
TheFundamentalEquationoftheMonetaryApproach
OngoingInflation,InterestParity,andPPP
TheFisherEffect
EmpiricalEvidenceonPPPandtheLawofOnePrice
Box:
SomeMeatyEvidenceontheLawofOnePrice
ExplainingtheProblemswithPPP
TradeBarriersandNontradables
DeparturesfromFreeCompetition
HongKong’sSurprisinglyHighInflation
InternationalDifferencesinPriceLevelMeasurement
PPPintheShortRunandintheLongRun
StickyPricesandtheLawofOnePrice:
EvidenceFromScandinavianDuty-freeShops
CaseStudy:
WhyPriceLevelsareLowerinPoorerCountries
BeyondPurchasingPowerParity:
AGeneralModelofLong-RunExchangeRates
TheRealExchangeRate
Demand,Supply,andtheLong-RunRealExchangeRate
NominalandRealExchangeRatesinLong-RunEquilibrium
WhyHastheYenKeepRising?
InternationalInterestRateDifferencesandtheRealExchangeRate
RealInterestParity
Summary
Appendix:
TheFisherEffect,theInterestRate,andtheExchangeRateundertheFlexible-PriceMonetaryApproach
ChapterOverview
Thetimeframeoftheanalysisofexchangeratedeterminationshiftstothelongruninthischapter.Ananalysisofthedeterminationofthelong-runexchangerateisrequiredforthecompletionoftheshort-runexchangeratemodelsince,asdemonstratedintheprevioustwochapters,thelong-runexpectedexchangerateaffectsthecurrentspotrate.Issuesaddressedhereincludebothmonetaryandreal-sidedeterminantsofthelong-runrealexchangerate.Thedevelopmentofthemodelofthelong-runexchangeratetouchesonanumberofissues,includingtheeffectofongoinginflationontheexchangerate,theFishereffect,andtheroleoftradablesandnontradables.Empiricalissues,suchasthebreakdownofpurchasingpowerparityinthe1970sandthecorrelationbetweenpricelevelsandpercapitaincome,areaddressedwithinthisframework.
Thelawofoneprice,whichholdsthatthepricesofgoodsarethesameinallcountriesintheabsenceoftransportcostsortraderestrictions,presentsanintuitivelyappealingintroductiontolong-runexchangeratedetermination.Anextensionofthislawtosetsofgoodsmotivatesthepropositionofabsolutepurchasingpowerparity.Relativepurchasingpowerparity,alessrestrictiveproposition,relateschangesinexchangeratestochangesinrelativepricelevelsandmaybevalidevenwhenabsolutePPPisnot.Purchasingpowerparityprovidesacornerstoneofthemonetaryapproachtotheexchangerate,whichservesasthefirstmodelofthelong-runexchangeratedevelopedinthischapter.Thisfirstmodelalsodemonstrateshowongoinginflationaffectsthelong-runexchangerate.
ThemonetaryapproachtotheexchangerateusesPPPtomodeltheexchangerateasthepricelevelinthehomecountryrelativetothepricelevelintheforeigncountry.Themoneymarketequilibriumrelationshipisusedtosubstitutemoneysupplydividedbymoneydemandforthepricelevel.TheFisherrelationshipallowsustosubstituteexpectedinflationforthenominalinterestrate.Theresultingrelationshipmodelsthelong-runexchangerateasafunctionofrelativemoneysupplies,theinflationdifferentialandrelativeoutputinthetwocountries;
E=(M/M*)·
l(pe-p*e,(Y*/Y))
Thelfunctionrepresentstheratioofforeigntodomesticmoneydemand;
thus,boththedifferenceinexpectedinflationratesandtheoutputratioenterthefunctionwithapositivesign.Anincreaseininflationathomemeanshigherhomeinterestrates(throughtheFisherequation)andlowerhomemoneydemand.Anincreaseinforeignoutputraisesforeignmoneydemand.
Oneresultfromthismodelthatstudentsmayfindinitiallyconfusingconcernstherelationshipbetweenthelong-runexchangerateandthenominalinterestrate.Themodelinthischapterprovidesanexampleofanincreaseintheinterestrateassociatedwithexchangeratedepreciation.Incontrast,theshort-runanalysisinthepreviouschapterprovidesanexampleofanincreaseinthedomesticinterestrateassociatedwithanappreciationofthecurrency.Thesedifferentrelationshipsbetweentheexchangerateandtheinterestratereflectdifferentcausesfortheriseintheinterestrateaswellasdifferentassumptionsconcerningpricerigidity.Intheanalysisofthepreviouschapter,theinterestraterisesduetoacontractioninthelevelofthenominalmoneysupply.Withfixedprices,thiscontractionofnominalbalancesismatchedbyacontractioninrealbalances.Excessmoneydemandisresolvedthroughariseininterestrateswhichisassociatedwithanappreciationofthecurrencytosatisfyinterestparity.Inthischapter,thediscussionoftheFishereffectdemonstratesthattheinterestratewillriseinresponsetoananticipatedincreaseinexpectedinflationduetoananticipatedincreaseintherateofgrowthofthemoneysupply.Thereisincipientexcessmoneysupplywiththisriseintheinterestrate.Withperfectlyflexibleprices,themoneymarketclearsthroughanerosionofrealbalancesduetoanincreaseinthepricelevel.Thispricelevelincreaseimplies,throughPPP,adepreciationoftheexchangerate.Thus,withperfectlyflexibleprices(anditscorollaryPPP),anincreaseintheinterestrateduetoanincreaseinexpectedinflationisassociatedwithadepreciationofthecurrency.
EmpiricalevidencepresentedinthechaptersuggeststhatbothabsoluteandrelativePPPperformpoorlyfortheperiodsince1971.Eventhelawofonepricefailstoholdacrossdisaggregatedcommoditygroups.Therejectionofthesetheoriesisrelatedtotradeimpediments(whichhelpgiverisetonontradedgoodsandservices),toshiftsinrelativeoutputpricesandtoimperfectlycompetitivemarkets.SincePPPservesasacornerstoneforthemonetaryapproach,itsrejectionsuggeststhataconvincingexplanationofthelong-runbehaviorofexchangeratesmustgobeyondthedoctrineofpurchasingpowerparity.TheFishereffectisdiscussedinmoredetailandaccompaniedbyadiagrammaticexpositioninanappendixtothechapter.
Amoregeneralmodelofthelong-runbehaviorofexchangeratesinwhichreal-sideeffectsareassignedaroleconcludesthechapter.Thematerialinthissectiondropstheassumptionofaconstantrealexchangerate,anassumptionthatyoumaywanttodemonstratetostudentsisnecessarilyassociatedwiththeassumptionofPPP.Motivatingthismoregeneralapproachiseasilydonebypresentingstudentswithatimeseriesgraphoftherecentbehavioroftherealexchangerateofthedollarwhichwilldemonstratelargeswingsinitsvalue.Therealexchangerate,q,istheratiooftheforeignpriceindex,expressedindomesticcurrency,tothedomesticpriceindex,or,equivalently,E=q·
(P/P*).Thechapterincludesaninformaldiscussionofthemannerinwhichthelongrunrealexchangerate,q,isaffectedbypermanentchangesinthesupplyordemandforacountry'
sproducts.
ANSWERSTOTEXTBOOKPROBLEMS
1.RelativePPPpredictsthatinflationdifferentialsarematchedbychangesintheexchangerate.UnderrelativePPP,thefranc/rubleexchangeratewouldfallby95percentwithinflationratesof100percentinRussiaand5percentinSwitzerland.
2.Arealcurrencyappreciationmayresultfromanincreaseinthedemandfornontradedgoodsrelativetotradableswhichwouldcauseanappreciationoftheexchangeratesincetheincreaseinthedemandfornontradablesraisestheirprice,raisingthedomesticpricelevelandcausingthecurrencytoappreciate.Inthiscaseexportersareindeedhurt,asonecanseebyadaptingtheanalysisinChapter3.Realcurrencyappreciationmayoccurfordifferentreasons,however,withdifferentimplicationsforexporters'
incomes.Ashiftinforeigndemandinfavorofdomesticexportswillbothappreciatethedomesticcurrencyinrealtermsandbenefitexporters.Similarly,productivitygrowthinexportsislikelytobenefitexporterswhilecausingarealcurrencyappreciation.Ifweconsideraceterusparibusincreaseintherealexchangerate,thisistypicallybadforexportersastheirexportsarenowmoreexpensivetoforeignerswhichmayreduceforeignexportdemand.Ingeneral,though,weneedtoknowwhytherealexchangeratechangedtointerprettheimpactofthechange.
3.a.Atiltofspendingtowardsnontradedproductscausestherealexchangeratetoappreciateasthepriceofnontradedgoodsrelativetotradedgoodsrises(therealexchangeratecanbeexpressedasthepriceoftradablestothepriceofnontradables).
b.Ashiftinforeigndemandtowardsdomesticexportscausesanexcessdemandforthedomesticcountry'
sgoodswhichcausestherelativepriceofthesegoodstorise;
thatis,itcausestherealexchangerateofthedomesticcountrytoappreciate.
4.RelativePPPimpliesthatthepound/dollarexchangerateshouldbeadjustedtooffsettheinflationdifferencebetweentheUnitedStatesandBritainduringthewar.Thus,acentralbankermightcomparetheconsumerpriceindicesintheUnitedStatesandtheU.K.beforeandafterthewar.IfAmerica'
spricelevelhadrisenby10percentwhilethatinBritainhadrisenby20percent,relativePPPwouldcallforapound/dollarexchangerate10percenthigherthanbeforethewar--a10percentdepreciationofthepoundagainstthedollar.
AcomparisonbasedonlyonPPPwouldfallshortofthetaskathand,however,ifitignoredpossiblechangesinproductivity,productivecapacityorinrelat