地铁与城市发展外文文献翻译中英文最新Word文档下载推荐.docx
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外文文献翻译原文及译文
标题:
地铁与城市发展外文翻译2019
文献出处:
MarcoNavarro,MatthewTurner.JournalofUrbanEconomics,Volume108,November2018,Pages85-106
译文字数:
4500多字
英文
Subwaysandurbangrowth:
EvidencefromearthMarcoNavarro,MatthewTurner
Abstract
Weinvestigatetherelationshipbetweentheextentofacity’ssubwaynetwork,itspopulationanditsspatialconfiguration.Forthe632largestcitiesintheworldweconstructpaneldatadescribingpopulation,measuresofcentralizationcalculatedfromlightsatnightdata,andtheextentofeachofthe138subwaysystemsinthesecities.Thesedataindicatethatlargecitiesaremorelikelytohavesubwaysbutthatsubwayshaveaneconomicallyinsignificanteffectonurbanpopulationgrowth.Ourdataalsoindicatethatsubwayscausecitiestodecentralize,althoughtheeffectissmallerthanpreviouslydocumentedeffectsofhighwaysondecentralization.Forasubsetofsubwaycitiesweobservepaneldatadescribingsubwayandbusridership.Forthosecitieswefindthata10%increaseinsubwayextentcausesabouta6%increaseinsubwayridershipandhasnoeffectonbusridership.
Keywords:
Subways,Publictransit,Urbangrowth,Urban
decentralization
1.Introduction
Weinvestigatetherelationshipbetweentheextentofacity’ssubwaynetworkanditspopulation,transitridershipandspatial
configuration.Toaccomplishthisinvestigation,forthe632largestcitiesintheworldweconstructpaneldatadescribingpopulation,totallight,measuresofcentralizationcalculatedfromlightsatnightdata,andtheextentofeachofthe138subwaysystemsinthesecities.Forasubsetofthesesubwaycitieswealsoassemblepaneldatadescribingbusandsubwayridership.
Thesedatasuggestthefollowingconclusions.First,whilelargecitiesaremorelikelytohavesubways,subwayshaveapreciselyestimatednearzeroeffectonurbanpopulationgrowth.Second,subwayscausecitiestodecentralize,althoughthiseffectappearstobesmallrelativetothedecentralizationcausedbyradialhighways.Third,a10%increaseinsubwayextentleadstoabouta6%increaseinsubwayridershipanddoesnotaffectbusridership.Abackoftheenvelopecalculationsuggeststhatonlyasmallfractionofridershipincreasescanbeaccountedforbydecentralizedcommuters.Togetherwiththefactthatlittlenewridershipcanbeattributedtopopulationgrowth,thissuggeststhatmostnewridershipderivesfromsubstitutionfromothermodesoftraveltowardssubways.
Subwayconstructionandexpansionprojectsrangefrommerelyexpensivetotrulybreathtaking.Amongthe16subwaysystemsexaminedbyBaum-SnowandKahn(2005),constructioncostsrangefromabout25millionto550millionUSD2005perkm.Onthebasisofthemid-pointof
thisrange,287millionperkm,constructioncostsforthecurrentstockareabout3trilliondollars.Thesecostsarehighenoughthatsubwayprojectsgenerallyrequirelargesubsidies.Tojustifythesesubsidies,proponentsoftenasserttheabilityofasubwaysystemtoencourageurbangrowth.1Ourdataallowthefirstestimatesoftherelationshipbetweensubwaysandurbangrowth.Thatsubwaysappeartohavealmostzeroeffectonurbangrowthsuggeststhattheevaluationofprospectivesubwayprojectsshouldrelylessontheabilityofsubwaystopromotegrowthandmoreonthedemandformobility.Ourdataalsoallowthefirstpaneldataestimatesoftheimpactofchangesinsystemextentonridershipandthereforealsomakeanimportantcontributiontosuchevaluations.
Understandingtheeffectofsubwaysoncitiesisalsoimportanttopolicymakersinterestedintheprocessofurbanizationinthedevelopingworld.Overthecomingdecades,weexpectanenormousmigrationofruralpopulationtowardsmajorurbanareas,andwithitdemandsforurbaninfrastructurethatexceedtheabilityoflocalandnationalgovernmentstosupplyit.Inordertoassesstrade-offsbetweendifferenttypesofinfrastructureinthesecities,understandingtheimplicationsofeachforwelfareisclearlyimportant.Sincepeoplemovetomoreattractiveplacesandawayfromlessattractiveones(broadlydefined),ourinvestigationoftherelationshipbetweensubwaysandpopulationgrowthwillhelptoinformthesedecisions.Inparticular,iftheobjectiveof
policymakersistoincreaseacity’spopulationortodecentralizeeconomicactivity,highwaysseemmorepromising.Ontheotherhand,inarelatedcompanionpaper,Gendron-Carrieretal.(2017)showthatiftheobjectiveistoreducepollution,thensubwayscanbeeffective.
Finally,anactiveacademi