地铁与城市发展外文文献翻译中英文最新Word文档下载推荐.docx

地铁与城市发展外文文献翻译中英文最新Word文档下载推荐.docx

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外文文献翻译原文及译文

标题：

地铁与城市发展外文翻译2019

文献出处：

MarcoNavarro,MatthewTurner.JournalofUrbanEconomics,Volume108,November2018,Pages85-106

译文字数：

4500多字

英文

Subwaysandurbangrowth:

EvidencefromearthMarcoNavarro，MatthewTurner

Abstract

Weinvestigatetherelationshipbetweentheextentofacity’ssubwaynetwork,itspopulationanditsspatialconfiguration.Forthe632largestcitiesintheworldweconstructpaneldatadescribingpopulation,measuresofcentralizationcalculatedfromlightsatnightdata,andtheextentofeachofthe138subwaysystemsinthesecities.Thesedataindicatethatlargecitiesaremorelikelytohavesubwaysbutthatsubwayshaveaneconomicallyinsignificanteffectonurbanpopulationgrowth.Ourdataalsoindicatethatsubwayscausecitiestodecentralize,althoughtheeffectissmallerthanpreviouslydocumentedeffectsofhighwaysondecentralization.Forasubsetofsubwaycitiesweobservepaneldatadescribingsubwayandbusridership.Forthosecitieswefindthata10%increaseinsubwayextentcausesabouta6%increaseinsubwayridershipandhasnoeffectonbusridership.

Keywords：

Subways，Publictransit，Urbangrowth，Urban

decentralization

1.Introduction

Weinvestigatetherelationshipbetweentheextentofacity’ssubwaynetworkanditspopulation,transitridershipandspatial

configuration.Toaccomplishthisinvestigation,forthe632largestcitiesintheworldweconstructpaneldatadescribingpopulation,totallight,measuresofcentralizationcalculatedfromlightsatnightdata,andtheextentofeachofthe138subwaysystemsinthesecities.Forasubsetofthesesubwaycitieswealsoassemblepaneldatadescribingbusandsubwayridership.

Thesedatasuggestthefollowingconclusions.First,whilelargecitiesaremorelikelytohavesubways,subwayshaveapreciselyestimatednearzeroeffectonurbanpopulationgrowth.Second,subwayscausecitiestodecentralize,althoughthiseffectappearstobesmallrelativetothedecentralizationcausedbyradialhighways.Third,a10%increaseinsubwayextentleadstoabouta6%increaseinsubwayridershipanddoesnotaffectbusridership.Abackoftheenvelopecalculationsuggeststhatonlyasmallfractionofridershipincreasescanbeaccountedforbydecentralizedcommuters.Togetherwiththefactthatlittlenewridershipcanbeattributedtopopulationgrowth,thissuggeststhatmostnewridershipderivesfromsubstitutionfromothermodesoftraveltowardssubways.

Subwayconstructionandexpansionprojectsrangefrommerelyexpensivetotrulybreathtaking.Amongthe16subwaysystemsexaminedbyBaum-SnowandKahn（2005）,constructioncostsrangefromabout25millionto550millionUSD2005perkm.Onthebasisofthemid-pointof

thisrange,287millionperkm,constructioncostsforthecurrentstockareabout3trilliondollars.Thesecostsarehighenoughthatsubwayprojectsgenerallyrequirelargesubsidies.Tojustifythesesubsidies,proponentsoftenasserttheabilityofasubwaysystemtoencourageurbangrowth.1Ourdataallowthefirstestimatesoftherelationshipbetweensubwaysandurbangrowth.Thatsubwaysappeartohavealmostzeroeffectonurbangrowthsuggeststhattheevaluationofprospectivesubwayprojectsshouldrelylessontheabilityofsubwaystopromotegrowthandmoreonthedemandformobility.Ourdataalsoallowthefirstpaneldataestimatesoftheimpactofchangesinsystemextentonridershipandthereforealsomakeanimportantcontributiontosuchevaluations.

Understandingtheeffectofsubwaysoncitiesisalsoimportanttopolicymakersinterestedintheprocessofurbanizationinthedevelopingworld.Overthecomingdecades,weexpectanenormousmigrationofruralpopulationtowardsmajorurbanareas,andwithitdemandsforurbaninfrastructurethatexceedtheabilityoflocalandnationalgovernmentstosupplyit.Inordertoassesstrade-offsbetweendifferenttypesofinfrastructureinthesecities,understandingtheimplicationsofeachforwelfareisclearlyimportant.Sincepeoplemovetomoreattractiveplacesandawayfromlessattractiveones（broadlydefined）,ourinvestigationoftherelationshipbetweensubwaysandpopulationgrowthwillhelptoinformthesedecisions.Inparticular,iftheobjectiveof

policymakersistoincreaseacity’spopulationortodecentralizeeconomicactivity,highwaysseemmorepromising.Ontheotherhand,inarelatedcompanionpaper,Gendron-Carrieretal.（2017）showthatiftheobjectiveistoreducepollution,thensubwayscanbeeffective.

Finally,anactiveacademi