在工业化国家的高新技术产品出口和经济增长外文翻译文档格式.docx
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High-techexportsandeconomicgrowthinindustrializedcountries
出处:
Economics
作者:
MartinFalk
原文:
High-techexportsandeconomicgrowthinindustrializedcountries
MartinFalk
AustrianInstituteofEconomicResearch(WIFO)
Abstract
Thepresentarticleprovidesnewevidenceontheimpactofthechangeinthehigh-techexportshareoneconomicgrowthinOECDcountries.Weestimateadynamicgrowthmodelonpaneldatafor22OECDcountriesfor1980–2004,inwhichthedataismeasuredas5-yearaverages.UsingthesystemGMMpanelestimator,whichcorrectsforsimultaneity,wefindthatbothbusinessR&
Dintensityandtheshareofhigh-techexportsaresignificantlypositivelyrelatedtotheGDPperworkingagepopulation.TheestimatedelasticitiesarerathersizablebutthemagnitudesuggeststhatbusinessR&
Dintensityismoreimportantthantheshareofhigh-techexportsinexplainingGDPperworkingagepopulation.
1.Introduction
Theshareofhigh-technologyexportsintotalmanufacturingexportshasincreasedconsiderablyinOECDcountriesthroughoutthelast25years.SomeOECDcountriessuchasFinland,Ireland,Korea,theNetherlandsandtheUnitedKingdomhaveincreasedtheirhigh-techexportsharemorethanothercountries.Similarly,thechangeintheratioofbusinessexpendituresonR&
D(BERD)toGDPhasalsounevenlyevolvedacrossOECDcountries.Thedifferencesintheevolutionofhigh-technologyexportshareandbusinessR&
Dintensityhaveattractedsubstantialpolicyinterest.BusinessR&
Dintensityiscommonlyidentifiedasthemaininputfactorintheinnovationprocess,whiletheshareofhigh-techexportsisregardedasanimportantmeasureofinnovationoutput.Bothmeasuresarewidelyusedinordertobenchmarkacountry’sinnovationperformance.Giventheinterestinthespecificinnovationindicators,itisnaturaltoaskastowhichofthetwofactorsismoreimportantforeconomicgrowth.
TherelatedempiricalliteratureagreesthatinvestmentinR&
DisoneofthemostsignificantfactorsaffectingthedifferencesinGDPandproductivitygrowth(BassaniniandScarpetta,2001).However,therelationshipbetweenhigh-techexportsandeconomicgrowthinindustrializedcountriesremainssomewhatunclear.Crespo-CuaresmaandWo¨
rz(2005)foundthattheexportshareoftechnology-intensiveindustriesissignificantlypositivelyrelatedtotheGDPpercapitaonlyforthesampleofnon-OECDcountries,butnotforthesampleofOECDcountries.UsingthedataforOECDcountries,Peneder(2003)findsthatexportsoftechnologydrivenindustrieshaveapositiveandsignificantimpactonthelevelandgrowthoftheGDPpercapita.WhatiscommontoallinthepreviousstudiesisthattheysufferfromanomittedvariablebiassincetheyexcludetheR&
Dintensityasameasureofinnovationinput.
Theaimofthepresentarticleistoprovidenewinsightsintotheimpactofhigh-techexportsoneconomicgrowth.Thegrowthequationisestimatedusingthesystemgeneralizedmethodofmoments(GMM)panelestimatorbasedonpanelof22OECDcountriesfortheperiod1980to2004,inwhichthedataaremeasuredas5-yearaverages.
2.EmpiricalModel
TheempiricalmodelisbasedonthehumancapitalaugmentedSolowmodelthatwasintroducedbyMankiwetal.(MRW)(1992).NonnemanandVanhoudt(1996)extendedtheMRWmodelbyaddingtheratioofR&
DtoGDP.WefurtheraugmenttheMRWmodelbyaddingameasureofinnovationoutputsuchasthehigh-techexportshareasanalternativetoR&
Dintensity.FollowingCasellietal.(1996),thesteadystatelevelofGDPpercapitabasedonpaneldatacanbedescribedas:
whereispercapitaGDPoftheworkingagepopulationexpressedin1995purchasingpowerparitiesincountryiinperiodt,whereisacountryspecificeffect,isaperiod-specificeffect,anditisanerror-term.Thesetofexplanatoryvariablesincludestheinvestmentratio,INVit,theratioofbusinessenterpriseR&
DexpenditurestoGDP(BERD),RDGDPit,averageyearsofeducationintheworkingagepopulation(from25to64yearsofage)takenfromBarroandLee,2000),EDUitandtheshareofhigh-techexportstototalmanufacturingexports
Wecanderivetheregressionequationbytakingfirstdifferencesinordertoremoveunobservedtime-invariant,countryspecificeffects(forthesakeofnotationalconvenience,xshallcomprisetheexplanatoryvariables):
Assumingtheresidualsofthelevelequationareseriallyuncorrelated,thevaluesofylaggedtwoperiodsormorecanbeusedasinstrumentsinthefirst-differencedequation.Thisimpliesthefollowingmomentcondition:
Inordertodealwiththepotentialendogeneityproblem,weassumethattheexplanatoryvariablesinxarepredetermined,ratherthanstrictlyexogenous,implyinginturnthefollowingmomentconditions:
Theestimatione