在工业化国家的高新技术产品出口和经济增长外文翻译文档格式.docx

在工业化国家的高新技术产品出口和经济增长外文翻译文档格式.docx

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High-techexportsandeconomicgrowthinindustrializedcountries

出处：

Economics

作者：

MartinFalk

原文：

High-techexportsandeconomicgrowthinindustrializedcountries

MartinFalk

AustrianInstituteofEconomicResearch（WIFO）

Abstract

Thepresentarticleprovidesnewevidenceontheimpactofthechangeinthehigh-techexportshareoneconomicgrowthinOECDcountries.Weestimateadynamicgrowthmodelonpaneldatafor22OECDcountriesfor1980–2004,inwhichthedataismeasuredas5-yearaverages.UsingthesystemGMMpanelestimator,whichcorrectsforsimultaneity,wefindthatbothbusinessR&

Dintensityandtheshareofhigh-techexportsaresignificantlypositivelyrelatedtotheGDPperworkingagepopulation.TheestimatedelasticitiesarerathersizablebutthemagnitudesuggeststhatbusinessR&

Dintensityismoreimportantthantheshareofhigh-techexportsinexplainingGDPperworkingagepopulation.

1.Introduction

Theshareofhigh-technologyexportsintotalmanufacturingexportshasincreasedconsiderablyinOECDcountriesthroughoutthelast25years.SomeOECDcountriessuchasFinland,Ireland,Korea,theNetherlandsandtheUnitedKingdomhaveincreasedtheirhigh-techexportsharemorethanothercountries.Similarly,thechangeintheratioofbusinessexpendituresonR&

D（BERD）toGDPhasalsounevenlyevolvedacrossOECDcountries.Thedifferencesintheevolutionofhigh-technologyexportshareandbusinessR&

Dintensityhaveattractedsubstantialpolicyinterest.BusinessR&

Dintensityiscommonlyidentifiedasthemaininputfactorintheinnovationprocess,whiletheshareofhigh-techexportsisregardedasanimportantmeasureofinnovationoutput.Bothmeasuresarewidelyusedinordertobenchmarkacountry’sinnovationperformance.Giventheinterestinthespecificinnovationindicators,itisnaturaltoaskastowhichofthetwofactorsismoreimportantforeconomicgrowth.

TherelatedempiricalliteratureagreesthatinvestmentinR&

DisoneofthemostsignificantfactorsaffectingthedifferencesinGDPandproductivitygrowth（BassaniniandScarpetta,2001）.However,therelationshipbetweenhigh-techexportsandeconomicgrowthinindustrializedcountriesremainssomewhatunclear.Crespo-CuaresmaandWo¨

rz（2005）foundthattheexportshareoftechnology-intensiveindustriesissignificantlypositivelyrelatedtotheGDPpercapitaonlyforthesampleofnon-OECDcountries,butnotforthesampleofOECDcountries.UsingthedataforOECDcountries,Peneder（2003）findsthatexportsoftechnologydrivenindustrieshaveapositiveandsignificantimpactonthelevelandgrowthoftheGDPpercapita.WhatiscommontoallinthepreviousstudiesisthattheysufferfromanomittedvariablebiassincetheyexcludetheR&

Dintensityasameasureofinnovationinput.

Theaimofthepresentarticleistoprovidenewinsightsintotheimpactofhigh-techexportsoneconomicgrowth.Thegrowthequationisestimatedusingthesystemgeneralizedmethodofmoments（GMM）panelestimatorbasedonpanelof22OECDcountriesfortheperiod1980to2004,inwhichthedataaremeasuredas5-yearaverages.

2.EmpiricalModel

TheempiricalmodelisbasedonthehumancapitalaugmentedSolowmodelthatwasintroducedbyMankiwetal.（MRW）（1992）.NonnemanandVanhoudt（1996）extendedtheMRWmodelbyaddingtheratioofR&

DtoGDP.WefurtheraugmenttheMRWmodelbyaddingameasureofinnovationoutputsuchasthehigh-techexportshareasanalternativetoR&

Dintensity.FollowingCasellietal.（1996）,thesteadystatelevelofGDPpercapitabasedonpaneldatacanbedescribedas:

whereispercapitaGDPoftheworkingagepopulationexpressedin1995purchasingpowerparitiesincountryiinperiodt,whereisacountryspecificeffect,isaperiod-specificeffect,anditisanerror-term.Thesetofexplanatoryvariablesincludestheinvestmentratio,INVit,theratioofbusinessenterpriseR&

DexpenditurestoGDP（BERD）,RDGDPit,averageyearsofeducationintheworkingagepopulation（from25to64yearsofage）takenfromBarroandLee,2000）,EDUitandtheshareofhigh-techexportstototalmanufacturingexports

Wecanderivetheregressionequationbytakingfirstdifferencesinordertoremoveunobservedtime-invariant,countryspecificeffects（forthesakeofnotationalconvenience,xshallcomprisetheexplanatoryvariables）:

Assumingtheresidualsofthelevelequationareseriallyuncorrelated,thevaluesofylaggedtwoperiodsormorecanbeusedasinstrumentsinthefirst-differencedequation.Thisimpliesthefollowingmomentcondition:

Inordertodealwiththepotentialendogeneityproblem,weassumethattheexplanatoryvariablesinxarepredetermined,ratherthanstrictlyexogenous,implyinginturnthefollowingmomentconditions:

Theestimatione