人工智能外文翻译文献.docx
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文献信息:
文献标题:
ResearchPrioritiesforRobustandBeneficialArtificialIntelligence(稳健和有益的人工智能的研究重点)
国外作者:
StuartRussell,DanielDewey,MaxTegmark
文献出处:
《AssociationfortheAdvancementofArtificial
Intelligence》,2015,36(4):
105-114
字数统计:
英文2887单词,16400字符;中文5430汉字
外文文献:
ResearchPrioritiesforRobustandBeneficialArtificialIntelligence
Abstract Successinthequestforartificialintelligencehasthepotentialtobringunprecedentedbenefitstohumanity,anditisthereforeworthwhiletoinvestigatehowtomaximizethesebenefitswhileavoidingpotentialpitfalls.Thisarticlegivesnumerousexamples(whichshouldbynomeansbeconstruedasanexhaustivelist)ofsuchworthwhileresearchaimedatensuringthatAIremainsrobustandbeneficial.
Keywords:
artificialintelligence,superintelligence,robust,beneficial,safety,society
Artificialintelligence(AI)researchhasexploredavarietyofproblemsandapproachessinceitsinception,butforthelast20yearsorsohasbeenfocusedontheproblemssurroundingtheconstructionofintelligentagents–systemsthatperceiveandactinsomeenvironment.Inthiscontext,thecriterionforintelligenceisrelatedtostatisticalandeconomicnotionsofrationality–colloquially,theabilitytomakegooddecisions,plans,orinferences.Theadoptionofprobabilisticrepresentationsandstatisticallearningmethodshas led toa largedegree of integrationandcross-fertilization between AI, machine learning, statistics, control theory,neuroscience,andotherfields.Theestablishmentofsharedtheoreticalframeworks,combinedwiththeavailabilityofdataandprocessingpower,hasyieldedremarkable
successesinvariouscomponenttaskssuchasspeechrecognition,imageclassification,autonomousvehicles,machinetranslation,leggedlocomotion,andquestion-answeringsystems.
Ascapabilitiesintheseareasandotherscrossthethresholdfromlaboratoryresearchtoeconomicallyvaluabletechnologies,avirtuouscycletakesholdwherebyevensmallimprovementsinperformanceareworthlargesumsofmoney,promptinggreaterinvestmentsinresearch.ThereisnowabroadconsensusthatAIresearchisprogressingsteadily,andthatitsimpactonsocietyislikelytoincrease.Thepotentialbenefitsarehuge,sinceeverythingthatcivilizationhastoofferisaproductofhumanintelligence;wecannotpredictwhatwemightachievewhenthisintelligenceismagnifiedbythetoolsAImayprovide,buttheeradicationofdiseaseandpovertyarenotunfathomable.BecauseofthegreatpotentialofAI,itisvaluabletoinvestigatehowtoreapitsbenefitswhileavoidingpotentialpitfalls.
Short-termResearchPrioritiesOptimizingAI’sEconomicImpact
The successesofindustrialapplicationsofAI,frommanufacturingtoinformationservices,demonstrateagrowingimpactontheeconomy,althoughthereisdisagreementabouttheexactnatureofthisimpactandonhowtodistinguishbetweentheeffectsofAIandthoseofotherinformationtechnologies.ManyeconomistsandcomputerscientistsagreethatthereisvaluableresearchtobedoneonhowtomaximizetheeconomicbenefitsofAIwhilemitigatingadverseeffects,whichcouldincludeincreasedinequalityandunemployment(Mokyr2014;BrynjolfssonandMcAfee2014;FreyandOsborne2013;Glaeser2014;Shanahan2015;Nilsson1984;Manyikaetal.2013).Suchconsiderationsmotivatearangeofresearchdirections,spanningareasfromeconomicstopsychology.Belowareafewexamplesthatshouldbynomeansbeinterpretedasanexhaustivelist.
Labormarketforecasting:
Whenandinwhatordershouldweexpectvariousjobstobecomeautomated(FreyandOsborne2013)?
Howwillthisaffectthewagesoflessskilledworkers,thecreativeprofessions,anddifferentkindsofinformation
workers?
SomehavehavearguedthatAIislikelytogreatlyincreasetheoverallwealthofhumanityasawhole(BrynjolfssonandMcAfee2014).However,increasedautomationmaypushincomedistributionfurthertowardsapowerlaw(Brynjolfsson,McAfee,andSpence2014),andtheresultingdisparitymayfalldisproportionatelyalonglinesofrace,class,andgender;researchanticipatingtheeconomicandsocietalimpactofsuchdisparitycouldbeuseful.
Othermarketdisruptions:
Significantpartsoftheeconomy,includingfinance,insurance,actuarial,andmanyconsumermarkets,couldbesusceptibletodisruptionthroughtheuseofAItechniquestolearn,model,andpredicthumanandmarketbehaviors.Thesemarketsmightbeidentifiedbyacombinationofhighcomplexityandhighrewardsfornavigatingthatcomplexity(Manyikaetal.2013).
Policyformanagingadverseeffects:
Whatpoliciescouldhelpincreasinglyautomatedsocietiesflourish?
Forexample,BrynjolfssonandMcAfee(BrynjolfssonandMcAfee2014)explorevariouspoliciesforincentivizingdevelopmentoflabor-intensivesectorsand