人工智能外文翻译文献Word文档下载推荐.docx

人工智能外文翻译文献Word文档下载推荐.docx

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国外作者：

StuartRussell,DanielDewey,MaxTegmark

文献出处：

《AssociationfortheAdvancementofArtificialIntelligence》,2015,36（4）:

105-114

字数统计：

英文2887单词，16400字符；

中文5430汉字

外文文献：

ResearchPrioritiesforRobustandBeneficialArtificialIntelligence

AbstractSuccessinthequestforartificialintelligencehasthepotentialtobringunprecedentedbenefitstohumanity,anditisthereforeworthwhiletoinvestigatehowtomaximizethesebenefitswhileavoidingpotentialpitfalls.Thisarticlegivesnumerousexamples（whichshouldbynomeansbeconstruedasanexhaustivelist）ofsuchworthwhileresearchaimedatensuringthatAIremainsrobustandbeneficial.

Keywords:

artificialintelligence,superintelligence,robust,beneficial,safety,society

Artificialintelligence（AI）researchhasexploredavarietyofproblemsandapproachessinceitsinception,butforthelast20yearsorsohasbeenfocusedontheproblemssurroundingtheconstructionofintelligentagents–systemsthatperceiveandactinsomeenvironment.Inthiscontext,thecriterionforintelligenceisrelatedtostatisticalandeconomicnotionsofrationality–colloquially,theabilitytomakegooddecisions,plans,orinferences.Theadoptionofprobabilisticrepresentationsandstatisticallearningmethodshasledtoalargedegreeofintegrationandcross-fertilizationbetweenAI,machinelearning,statistics,controltheory,neuroscience,andotherfields.Theestablishmentofsharedtheoreticalframeworks,combinedwiththeavailabilityofdataandprocessingpower,hasyieldedremarkablesuccessesinvariouscomponenttaskssuchasspeechrecognition,imageclassification,autonomousvehicles,machinetranslation,leggedlocomotion,andquestion-answeringsystems.

Ascapabilitiesintheseareasandotherscrossthethresholdfromlaboratoryresearchtoeconomicallyvaluabletechnologies,avirtuouscycletakesholdwherebyevensmallimprovementsinperformanceareworthlargesumsofmoney,promptinggreaterinvestmentsinresearch.ThereisnowabroadconsensusthatAIresearchisprogressingsteadily,andthatitsimpactonsocietyislikelytoincrease.Thepotentialbenefitsarehuge,sinceeverythingthatcivilizationhastoofferisaproductofhumanintelligence;

wecannotpredictwhatwemightachievewhenthisintelligenceismagnifiedbythetoolsAImayprovide,buttheeradicationofdiseaseandpovertyarenotunfathomable.BecauseofthegreatpotentialofAI,itisvaluabletoinvestigatehowtoreapitsbenefitswhileavoidingpotentialpitfalls.

Short-termResearchPriorities

OptimizingAI’sEconomicImpact

ThesuccessesofindustrialapplicationsofAI,frommanufacturingtoinformationservices,demonstrateagrowingimpactontheeconomy,althoughthereisdisagreementabouttheexactnatureofthisimpactandonhowtodistinguishbetweentheeffectsofAIandthoseofotherinformationtechnologies.ManyeconomistsandcomputerscientistsagreethatthereisvaluableresearchtobedoneonhowtomaximizetheeconomicbenefitsofAIwhilemitigatingadverseeffects,whichcouldincludeincreasedinequalityandunemployment（Mokyr2014;

BrynjolfssonandMcAfee2014;

FreyandOsborne2013;

Glaeser2014;

Shanahan2015;

Nilsson1984;

Manyikaetal.2013）.Suchconsiderationsmotivatearangeofresearchdirections,spanningareasfromeconomicstopsychology.Belowareafewexamplesthatshouldbynomeansbeinterpretedasanexhaustivelist.

Labormarketforecasting:

Whenandinwhatordershouldweexpectvariousjobstobecomeautomated（FreyandOsborne2013）?

Howwillthisaffectthewagesoflessskilledworkers,thecreativeprofessions,anddifferentkindsofinformationworkers?

SomehavehavearguedthatAIislikelytogreatlyincreasetheoverallwealthofhumanityasawhole（BrynjolfssonandMcAfee2014）.However,increasedautomationmaypushincomedistributionfurthertowardsapowerlaw（Brynjolfsson,McAfee,andSpence2014）,andtheresultingdisparitymayfalldisproportionatelyalonglinesofrace,class,andgender;

researchanticipatingtheeconomicandsocietalimpactofsuchdisparitycouldbeuseful.

Othermarketdisruptions:

Significantpartsoftheeconomy,includingfinance,insurance,actuarial,andmanyconsumermarkets,couldbesusceptibletodisruptionthroughtheuseofAItechniquestolearn,model,andpredicthumanandmarketbehaviors.Thesemarketsmightbeidentifiedbyacombinationofhighcomplexityandhighrewardsfornavigatingthatcomplexity（Manyikaetal.2013）.

Policyformanagingadverseeffects:

Whatpoliciescouldhelpincreasinglyautomatedsocietiesflourish?

Forexample,BrynjolfssonandMcAfee（BrynjolfssonandMcAfee2014）explorevariouspoliciesforincentivizingdevelopmentoflabor-intensivesectorsandforusingAI-generatedwea