C8投资项目效益评价.ppt

C8投资项目效益评价.ppt

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厦门大学管理学院博士研究生课程报告八,高级投资项目管理和经济效益评价理论、方法和实践厦门大学管理学院吴世农AdvancedCapitalBudgetingTheory,Methods&ApplicationsWuShinongSchoolofManagementXiamenUniversity,AdvancedTopicsinCapitalBudgeting,I.WhatisCapitalBudgeting?

Capital=FixedAssetsusedinproduction/service;Budgeting=Plandetailingprojectedcashinflowsandoutflowsduringsomefutureperiod,thus“CapitalBudgeting”outlinestheplannedexpendituresonfixedassets.1.Multi-conceptsforCapitalBudgeting

（1）CapitalInvestmentAnalysis&Decision

（2）EconomicEvaluationofInvestmentProjects（3）TechnologicalEconomics（4）InvestmentFeasibilityStudy2.AFormalDefinitionofCapitalBudgetingCapitalbudgetingisafiledoffinanceconcernedwithcostandbenefit,andreturnandriskderivedfrominvestmentprojectundertakenbyafirm.Thecapitalbudgetingisaprocedureincludeasetofsystematictechniquesdealingwithhowtoevaluateandselectinvestmentprojectsundercertaintyoruncertainty.,厦门大学管理学院吴世农,MarketResearchInvestmentSources&CostCBAExpendituresofCapitalsMarketingStrategyCosts&IncomeRProfitsStatementRisk&InvestmentAnalysisDManagementAssets&BalanceLiabilitiesSheetProductionFinanceCashInflow&CashflowRepaymentOpportunityStudyCashOutflowStatementAnalysisPreliminaryDiscussionFeasibilityDiscussionFinalProposalsStudyReportExhibit1:

DiagramSuggestedforInvestmentProjectsFeasibilityStudyinFirms,厦门大学管理学院吴世农,TechnologicalMacroeconomicFeasibilityFeasibilityFinancialImplementationOperationFeasibilitySocial/CulturalEnvironmentalFeasibilityFeasibilityComprehensiveReviewPost-FeasibilityReportAssessmentExhibit1（Continuos）:

DiagramSuggestedforInvestmentProjectsFeasibilityStudyinFirms,AdvancedTopicsinCapitalBudgeting,II.ConflictsbetweenNPVandIRRforMutuallyExclusiveProjects1.SizeEffectofInvestmentOutlayonNPVandIRR

（1）ConflictWhichMaximizesShareholdersWealth?

Supposethattherearetwoprojects,AandB,n=1,K=10%,theirinvestmentoutlaysandNCFarepresentedinthefollowingtable.ProjectI0NCF1NPV（k=10%）IRRPVIA5,0008,0002,27360%45.46%B50,00075,00018,18250%36.36%BothprojectsareacceptableduetotheirpositivevaluesofNPV,however,giventhatthetwoprojectsaremutuallyexclusive,whichoneispreferred?

Also,becausethesizeofinvestmentoutlaysforAandBaredifferent.ByNPV,AisbetterthanB;byIRR（orPVI）BisoverA.ThiscaseistypicalasaconflictraisedfromdecisioncriteriabyNPVorbyIRR?

厦门大学吴世农,

（2）SolutionSinceK=10%isassumedtobefixed,wecansolvethisconflictbycreatingadifferentialproject（B-A）,ifthedifferentialprojectyieldsapositiveNPV,itisobviousthatBisbetterthanAbecausenotonlyapartofBwillcreateaNPVequaltoNPVA,butalsocreateapositiveNPVforthedifferentialproject（B-A）.Thus,wecreateadifferentialproject（B-A）,andthencalculateitsNPVandIRRNPV（B-A）=（75000-8000）/（1+10%）-（50000-5000）=$15909（75000-8000）/（1+IRR（B-A）=（50000-5000）,IRR（B-A）=48.8%Nodoubt,theresultsabovesuggeststhattheinvestorsofthefirmwillbebetteroffifprojectBisaccepted.,AdvancedTopicsinCapitalBudgeting,2.TrendEffectofNCFonNPVandIRR

（1）ConflictWhichOneisaSoundingDecisionRule?

Supposetherearetwomutuallyexclusiveprojects,AandB,thefollowinggraphsshowthatthetrendofAsNCFsandthetrendofBsNCFsaredifferent.Obviously,graph1statesthatAsNCFsarealwayslargerthanBsNCFsovertheperiods,thus,NPVANPVB;graph2statesfortheearlierperiodsAsNCFsarelargerthanBsNCFs,thusNPVANPVB,butforthelaterperiods（afterK*）AsNCFsaresmallerthanBsNCFs,thusNPVANPVBBANPVANPVBNPVA=NPVBKNPVANPVBKkIRRBIRRAk*IRRAIRRB,厦门大学吴世农,Forgraph1,projectAwillbechosenforinvestmentwhileprojectbewillbegivenup.Thedecisionisclear.Forgraph2,itishardtosaywhichoneisbetter.Thequestioncannotbeanswereduntilwedoafurtherstudy.

（2）SolutionToillustratethecaseshowningraph2,thefollowingtablecontainsnecessaryinformationformakingtheaccept/rejectdecision.ProjectI0NCF1NCF2NPV（K=10%）IRRNPV（K=20%）A10001000310165.324.8%48.6B10002001200173.620%0Toanswerthequestionforthecaseofgraph2,wehastocreateadifferentialproject（B-A）,weregardthedifferenceofBsNCFandANCFinthefirstyear（NCF1B-NCF1A）asI1,whichisanegativevalue（orcashoutflow）.AlsowetreatedthedifferenceofBsNCFandANCFinthesecondyear（NCF2B-NCF1A）asNCF1,whichisapositivevalue（orcashinflow）.ThusthedifferentialprojectsNPVandIRRcanbeshownasfollows:

AdvancedTopicsinCapitalBudgeting,NPV（B-A）=890/（1+10%）-800=$9.1890/（1+IRR（B-A）-800;IRR（B-A）=11.23%Bythecalculationsabove,itsuggeststhatprojectBisbetterthanprojectA。

3.SignEffectofNCFsonNPVandIRR

（1）ConflictWhichOneisApplicable?

Weonediscussedaclassificationofcashflows:

conventionalNCFandnon-conventionalNCF,therationalbehindthisclassificationis