叙利亚危机叙利亚危机英语论文.docx

叙利亚危机叙利亚危机英语论文.docx

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叙利亚危机叙利亚危机英语论文

叙利亚危机-叙利亚危机英语论文

　　Student:

CathyZhang

　　Director:

RussTaylor

　　Major:

Translation

　　Words:

2871

　　Syria’scrises:

　　IsBasharHafezal-Assadgoingtostepdown?

　　ThefirstprotestsoftheArabSpringoccurredinTunisiaon18December2016inSidiBouzid.MohamedBouaziziprotestedpolicecorruptionandilltreatmentbyself-immolation.ItssuccesssparkedawaveofunrestinAlgeria,Jordan,EgyptandYemen,thenspreadtoothercountries.ByFebruary2016,governmentshavebeenoverthrowninTunisia,Egypt,LybiaandYemen.Duringthisperiodofreginalunrest,severalleadersannouncedtostepdownattheendoftheircurrentterms,suchasSudanesePresidentOmaral-Bashir,IraqiPrimeMinisterNourial-MalikiandJordanKingAbdullah（Blight,PulhamandTorpey）.AccordingtothetendencyoftheArabSpring,SyrianPresidentBasharHafezal-Assadisalsoindangerbecauseofhispoliticalstandingpoint.Ishegoingtostepdowninfrontofbigpressure？

Seeingfromconprehensiveaspects,IdonotthinkBasharHafezal-Assadwillbethesamefateasleadersabove.Syria‘ssituationseemsdifferent.First,asforBasharhimself,heiswell-knownforsomecampaignslikedealingwithintroductionofdifferentconsumertechnologiesandanti-corruptioncampaign.HehasalsomadechangesintheranksinSyrianinstitutions,centralinbringcomputertechnologyandInternetaccesstoSyria,aswellasfacilitatingtheintroductionofmobiletelephones.His

　　achievementsandstylesarewelcomedandsupportedbymostSyriapeople.Second,Syria‘spowerstructureandkeypositions,especiallythemilitaryforcesareheldbytheAssadfamilyanditssupporters.Accordingtointentionandpreparationofthewholefamily,BasharHafezal-AssadsucceededhisfatherHafezal-Assad.ThisgaveBasharstablepoliticalfoundationandmoreweightsonprotectingthecurrentgovernmentfromrebellingdown.Third,Bashar‘soppositionsareisolatingandnotstrongenoughtoagainstthecurrentgovernment.BecausemainoppositionsliketheSNCandtheFSAarefoundoverseasandfinancedbyforeignpowers.TheyarenotindependentandalsocannotequaltoBashar‘sBaathParty.Fourth,consideringSyria‘sstrategicsignificanceinMiddleEast,todaySyria‘sturmoilisnotonlyanissueofSyriaitselforoneoftheMiddleEast,itisapoliticalanddiplomaticbattlefieldforpowerplayersininternationalsociety.AlthoughSyriaisnowagainstbymostcountriesleadingbyAmericaandFrance,italsohasfriendsincludingRussiaandChinaandsomecountriesamongtheArabLeague.Fifth,foreigninvestorsinSyriawillalsotakeactionsinsomeinternationalsanctionsandissuestohelpneedtoprotecttheirinvestmentsfromwarsandcrises.

　　Syria‘sturmoilwillnotthreatenthePresidentBasharHafezal-Assad.First,asforBasharhimself,hisachievementsinmanagingthecountryhavebeenwelcomedandsupportedbyitspeople.Priortobecomingpresident,Basharmadehimselfwell-knownforsomecampaignslikedealingwithintroductionofdifferentconsumertechnologies.Hisanti-corruptioncampaignresultedinthefallofseveralleadingpersonalitiesinSyriansociety,likeformerPrimeMinisterMahmoudZoubi.This

　　earnedhimalotrespectsinSyria.HehasalsodeclaredhewillliftrestrictionshavinghinderedSyrianmediafromemployingtheslightestformofcriticaljournalism.HehasalsomadechangesintheranksinSyrianinstitutions,centralinbringcomputertechnologyandInternetaccesstoSyria,aswellasfacilitatingtheintroductionofmobiletelephones.ComparingwithotherleadersinMiddleEast,Basharhasmoreappreciationandhigherevaluationfromcommonpeople.Asweknow,toanycountry‘sleader,people‘ssupportsarekeyfactorsforhisgoverningthewholecountry.Duetopeople‘ssupportsanyonewhowantstooverthrowBasharhastofigureoutareasonableandlegalexcuse.TosomeforeignforceswhichwanttointerfereSyria‘scrisesandgainprofitsatSyriapeople‘sexpenses,overthrowingthecurrentgovernmentprobablymayrisepeople‘sangernomatterinSyriaandintheworld.

　　Second,BasharHafezal-Assadwillnotstepdownisbecausehehasastablefamily-supportedpoliticalfoundation.Asfortheal-Assadfamily,ithasruledSyriasinceHafezal-AssadbecameSyrianpresidentin1971andestablishedanauthoritarianregimeunderthecontroloftheBaathparty.Afterhisdeathin2000,hissonBasharHafezal-Assadsucceededhim.SeveralclosefamilymembersofHafezal-Assadhaveheldpositionsinthegovernmentsincehisrisetopower,forexample,Jamilal-Assadisparliamentarianandcommanderofaminormilitia,Rifatal-Assadisformerlyapowerfulsecuritychief.（Wikipedia）WhentheelderAssaddiedin2000,BasharwasappointedleaderoftheBaathPartyandtheArmy,andwaselectedpresident.On27Mayxx,Basharwasapprovedaspresidentforanotherseven-yearterm.（Tristam）

　　DuetoBashar‘sstablefamily-supportedpoliticalfoundation,anyoppositionwhowantstooverthrowBasharmustconsiderhisfinalfateifitisenvolvedinwars.ThisdoesnotmeanBasharwillbesafeforever,thisadvantagecangivehimmoreweightsandmoretimetosolvehisdifficulties.IftheunityofAssadfamilyissplit,nobodywillknowwhatkindofcountrySyriawillbecomeandalsothefateofBashar.SotoBashar,themostimportantthinghehastodoistokeeptheAssadfamilyasawhole.

　　Third,Bashar‘soppositionsarenotunitedanddonothavestrongpowertoagainstthecurrentgovernment.ManyoppositionarefoundedabroadandthosefoundedinSyriaareisolatingandweak.Therearealsoconflictsamongforeignpowerswhichsupportingabroad-foundoppositionsduetotheirdifferentstandingpointsandbenefits.AccordingtoBassamHassad,directorofMiddleEastStudiesatGeorgeMasonUniversityclaimed,themainoppositionabroad-SyriaNationalCouncilwastotallydependentonexternalpowersandfounding,andalsobecamefarlesstransparentandinsistentontheiractualplight,itwasinsteadalmostexclusivelyfocusingonwhatwillgivetheSNCincreasedsupportinternationallyandregionally.InlateJuly2016,awebvideofeaturingagroupofuniformedmenclaimingtobedefectedSyrianArmyofficersproclaimedtheformationofFreeSyrianArmy.However,theFSAhasnocentralleadership.Asdesertingsoldiersabandonedtheirarmoredvehiclesandbroughtonlylightweaponryandmunitions,FSAadoptedguerilla-styletacticsagainstsecurityforcesinsidecities.Therearealsootheroppositionsjustlikeabovetwobuthaveonlyafewmembers.Therefore,nomatterin

　　armequipmentsorinpeoplenumber,iftheoppositionsdonotunittogetherandmakeanagreement,theyareverydifficulttosucceedinoverthrowingthecurrentgovernment.

　　Sofromthispointofviewabove,BasharHafezal-AssadhavefewchallengesfromtheinsideofSyria,however,seeingfromtheoutside,BasharHafezal-Assadhastofaceabitmorepressureindealingwithinternationalissues.DuetoSyria‘sgeographicalandgeopoliticalimportanceinMiddleEast，Syriahasbeenapoliticalanddiplomaticbattlefieldforthepowerplayers.Intermsofitsforeigninvestments,Syriaisalsofacingchallengesinprotectingforeigninvestors‘benefitsandinterests.ButtoBasher,withforeigninvestors‘participation,Syria‘scriseswillbemorecomplicatedandhardertointerfereforsomepowerplayers,thiswillgiveBasharmorechancestoresolvehisproblems.

　　Fourth,Syria‘sconvulsionliesnotonlywithitscurrentsocio-politicalcrises,butalsoinitsgeo-historicalposition,particularlywithTurkey.Nomatteringeographyorinhistory,Turkish-SyrianrelationswillbecrucialinsolvingDamascus‘spopulistcrises.（Woolley）AccordingtoMilitaryofChinaforcecomment,‖Syriaisoftendescribedas‗theworl‘slargestsmallcountry‘.‖SituatedintheheartoftheMiddleEast‘FertileCrescent‘,andboundedbytheMediterraneanSea,SyriastretchesacrossTurkey‘ssouthernborder,downalongIraq‘swesternfrontier,beforereachingitscontentiousboundarywithIsrael,neartheSeaofGalilae.TheearliestknowncivilizationsspreadacrosstheSyrianheartland,fosteringsomeoftheworld‘soldest

　　cities.Themostimportanteast-westtraderoutespassedthroughSyria,connectingIndiaandtheOrientwithEuropeandNorthAfrica（Caruthers1918,）.SyriaenjoyedtremendouswealthfromtheAgeofAntiquitythroughtheRenaissance.

　　DuetoSyria‘sstrategicsignificance,ithasbeenapoliticalanddiplomaticbattlefieldfor―big‖countriessuchasAmerica,Russia,theUNandFrance,andtheArabLeague.ToBashar,hecanmakeuseoftheirdifferentstandingpointsandgethelpfromtheirdisagreementsanddisputes.InpoliticalanddiplomaticbattlesonSyria,situationsarealsogoodtoBashar.

　　ForAmerica,nomatterinhistoryortoday,AmericadoesnotlikeBasharatall.Fromxxto2016AmericahasbeensupportingtheoppositionofSyriaover$12million.AndonFeb6,theUSgovernmentcloseditsembassyandwithdrewpersonnelfromSyriaafterBasharsenttankstothesoutherncityDeLa.Itreactedquicklybysigninganexecutiveorderon29April2016imposingsanctionsonthreeSyrianofficials.Additionalsanctionswereissuedon18MaytargetingPresidentAssadandsixgovernmentaides,andSyrianoilimportswerebannedon18August.TheUSalsojoinedseveralEuropeannations,includingtheUK,FranceandGermanyincallingforAssadtostepdownon18August.On24November,theAmericanaircraftcarrier‖GeorgeBush‖hadenteredintotheMediterraneanSeaandalsotheSixthFleetstartedpatrolsnearSyria.However,althoughthetwocountries‘relationshipistense,whetherAmericaisgoingonfireisalsoaquestionforPresidentObama.Syriai