from hope to audacity.docx

from hope to audacity.docx

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fromhopetoaudacity

FromHopetoAudacity

TheforeignpolicyofU.S.PresidentBarackObamacanbeassessedmostusefullyintwoparts:

first,hisgoalsanddecision-makingsystemand,second,hispoliciesandtheirimplementation.Althoughonecanspeakwithsomeconfidenceabouttheformer,thelatterisstillanunfoldingprocess.

Tohiscredit,ObamahasundertakenatrulyambitiousefforttoredefinetheUnitedStates'viewoftheworldandtoreconnecttheUnitedStateswiththeemerginghistoricalcontextofthetwenty-firstcentury.Hehasdonethisremarkablywell.Inlessthanayear,hehascomprehensivelyreconceptualizedU.S.foreignpolicywithrespecttoseveralcentrallyimportantgeopoliticalissues:

•Islamisnotanenemy,andthe"globalwaronterror"doesnotdefinetheUnitedStates'currentroleintheworld;

•theUnitedStateswillbeafair-mindedandassertivemediatorwhenitcomestoattaininglastingpeacebetweenIsraelandPalestine;

•theUnitedStatesoughttopursueseriousnegotiationswithIranoveritsnuclearprogram,aswellasotherissues;

•thecounterinsurgencycampaignintheTaliban-controlledpartsofAfghanistanshouldbepartofalargerpoliticalundertaking,ratherthanapredominantlymilitaryone;

•theUnitedStatesshouldrespectLatinAmerica'sculturalandhistoricalsensitivitiesandexpanditscontactswithCuba;

•theUnitedStatesoughttoenergizeitscommitmenttosignificantlyreducingitsnucleararsenalandembracetheeventualgoalofaworldfreeofnuclearweapons;

•incopingwithglobalproblems,Chinashouldbetreatednotonlyasaneconomicpartnerbutalsoasageopoliticalone;

•improvingU.S.-Russianrelationsisintheobviousinterestofbothsides,althoughthismustbedoneinamannerthataccepts,ratherthanseekstoundo,post-ColdWargeopoliticalrealities;and

•atrulycollegialtransatlanticpartnershipshouldbegivendeepermeaning,particularlyinordertohealtheriftscausedbythedestructivecontroversiesofthepastfewyears.

Forallthat,hediddeservetheNobelPeacePrize.Overall,Obamahasdemonstratedagenuinesenseofstrategicdirection,asolidgraspofwhattoday'sworldisallabout,andanunderstandingofwhattheUnitedStatesoughttobedoinginit.Whethertheseconvictionsareabyproductofhispersonalhistory,hisstudies,orhisintuitivesenseofhistory,theyrepresentastrategicallyandhistoricallycoherentworldview.Thenewpresident,itshouldbeadded,hasalsobeenaddressingtheglaringsocialandenvironmentaldilemmasthatconfronthumanityandaboutwhichtheUnitedStateshasbeenindifferentfortoolong.Butthisappraisalfocusesonhisresponsestothemosturgentgeopoliticalchallenges.

CHALLENGESTOWHITEHOUSELEADERSHIP

Obamahasshownagenuinesenseofstrategicdirectionandasolidgraspofwhattoday’sworldisallabout.Obama'soverallperspectivesetsthetoneforhisforeign-policy-makingteam,whichisfirmlycenteredintheWhiteHouse.ThepresidentreliesonVicePresidentJoeBiden'sbroadexperienceinforeignaffairstoexploreideasandengageininformalstrategizing.NationalSecurityAdviserJamesJonescoordinatesthetranslationofthepresident'sstrategicoutlookintopolicy,whilealsohavingtomanagethelargestNationalSecurityCouncilinhistory--itsover-200-personstaffisalmostfourtimesaslargeastheNSCstaffsofRichardNixon,JimmyCarter,andGeorgeH.W.BushandalmosttentimesaslargeasJohnF.Kennedy's.TheinfluenceofSecretaryofDefenseRobertGatesonnationalsecuritystrategyhasbeengrowingsteadily.Gates'immediatetaskistosuccessfullyconcludetwowars,buthisinfluenceisalsofeltonmatterspertainingtoIranandRussia.SecretaryofStateHillaryClinton,whohasthepresident'searaswellashisconfidence,islikewiseakeyparticipantinforeignpolicydecisionsandisthecountry'stopdiplomat.Herownengagementisfocusedmoreontheincreasinglyurgentglobalissuesofthenewcentury,ratherthanonthegeopoliticalonesoftherecentpast.

Finally,Obama'stwotrustedpoliticaladvisers,DavidAxelrodandRahmEmanuel,whocloselymonitorthesensitiverelationshipbetweenforeignanddomesticpolitics,alsoparticipateindecision-making.（Forexample,bothsatinonthepresident'scriticalSeptembermeetingwithIsraeliPrimeMinisterBenjaminNetanyahu.）Whenappropriate,policydiscussionsalsoincludetwoexperiencednegotiators,GeorgeMitchell,whoconductstheMiddleEastpeacenegotiations,andRichardHolbrooke,whocoordinatestheregionalresponsetothechallengesinAfghanistanandPakistan.Ineffect,theyareanextensionofthepresident'sNSC-centeredprocess.

Onthisteam,Obamahimselfisthemainsourceofthestrategicdirection,but,unavoidably,heisabletoplaythisroleononlyapart-timebasis.Thisisaweakness,becausetheconceptualinitiatorofagreatpower'sforeignpolicyneedstobeactivelyinvolvedinsupervisingthedesignoftheconsequentstrategicdecisions,inoverlookingtheirimplementation,andinmakingtimelyadjustments.YetObamahashadnochoicebuttospendmuchofhisfirstyearinofficeondomesticpoliticalaffairs.

Asaresult,hisgrandredefinitionofU.S.foreignpolicyisvulnerabletodilutionordelaybyupper-levelofficialswhohavethebureaucraticpredispositiontofavorcautionoveractionandthefamiliarovertheinnovative.Someofthemmayevenbeunsympathetictothepresident'sprioritiesregardingtheMiddleEastandIran.Ithardlyneedstobeaddedthatofficialswhoarenotinsympathywithadvocatedpoliciesrarelymakegoodexecutors.Additionally,thepresident'sdomesticpoliticaladvisersinevitablytendtobemoresensitivetopressuresfromdomesticinterestgroups.Thisusuallyfostersareluctancetoplanforafirmfollow-throughonboldpresidentialinitiativesshouldtheysuddenlyencounteraforeignrebuffreinforcedbypowerfuldomesticlobbies.Netanyahu'srejectionofObama'spublicdemandthatIsraelhalttheconstructionofsettlementsontheWestBankandinEastJerusalemisacaseinpoint.

Itisstilltooearlytomakeafirmassessmentofthepresident'sdeterminationtopursuehispriorities,asmostofthelargeissuesthatObamahaspersonallyaddressedinvolvelong-rangeproblemsthatcallforlong-termmanagement.Butthreeurgentissuesdopose,evenintheshortrun,animmediateanddifficulttestofhisabilityandhisresolvetosignificantlychangeU.S.policy:

theIsraeli-Palestinianconflict,Iran'snuclearambitions,andtheAfghan-Pakistanichallenge.Eachofthesealsohappenstobeasensitiveissueathome.

THEISRAELI-PALESTINIANCONUNDRUM

Thefirsturgentchallengeis,ofcourse,theMiddleEastpeaceprocess.Obamastatedearlyonthathewouldtaketheinitiativeonthisissueandaimforasettlementintherelativenearterm.ThatpositionisjustifiedhistoricallyandisinkeepingwiththeUnitedStates'nationalinterest.ParalysisovertheIsraeli-Palestinianconflicthaslastedfartoolong,andleavingitunresolvedhasperniciousconsequencesforthePalestinians,fortheregion,andfortheUnitedStates,anditwilleventuallyharmIsrael.Itisnotfashionabletosaythis,butitisdemonstrablytruethat--deservedlyornot--muchofthecurrenthostilitytowardtheUnitedStatesintheMiddleEastandtheIslamicworldasawholehasbeengeneratedbythebloodshedandsufferingproducedbythisprolongedconflict.OsamabinLaden'sself-servingjustificationsfor9/11areareminderthattheUnitedStatesitselfisalsoavictimoftheIsraeli-Palestinianconundrum.

Bynow,aftermorethan40yearsofIsraelioccupationoftheWestBankand30yearsofpeacenegotiations,itisquiteevidentthatlefttothemselves,neithertheIsraelisnorthePalestinianswillresolvetheconflictontheirown.Therearemanyreasonsforthis,butthebottomlineisthatthePalestiniansaretoodividedandtooweaktomakethecriticaldecisionsnecessarytopushthepeaceprocessforward,andtheIsraelisaretoodividedandtoostrongtodothesame.Asaresult,afirmexternalinitiativedefiningthebasicparametersofafinalsettlementisneededtojump-startseriousnegotiationsbetweenthetwoparties.AndthatcanonlycomefromtheUnitedStates.

ButthenecessaryoutsidestimulushasnotyetbeenforthcominginafashionconsistentwithU.S.interestsandpotential.Inraisingtheissueofthesettlementsinthespringof2009butthenlaterbackingoffwhenrebuffedbytheIsraeligovernment,theadministrationstrengthenedthehard-lineelementsinIsraelandundercutthemoremoderateelementsonthePalestinianside.Then,anopportunityprovidedbytheannualUNGeneralAssemblymeetinginSeptembertoidentifytheUnitedStateswiththeoverwhelmingglobalconsensusaboutthebasicparametersofapeacesettlementwassquandered.Insteadofseizingit,ObamamerelyurgedtheIsraelisandthePalestinianstonegotiateingoodfaith.

Yettheexistingglobalconsensuscouldserveasalaunchingpadforseriousnegotiationsonfourbasicpoints.First,PalestinianrefugeesshouldnotbegrantedtherightofreturntowhatisnowIsrael,becauseIsraelcannotbeexpectedtocommitsuicideforthesakeofpeace.TherefugeeswillhavetoberesettledwithinthePalestinianstate,withcompensationandmaybesomeexpressionofregretfortheirsuffering.ThiswillbeverydifficultforthePalestiniannationalmovementtoswallow,butthereisnoalternative.

TheUnitedStatesisalreadylosingtherenewedconfidenceoftheArabworldthatObamawonwithhisspeechinCairo.Second,Jerusalemhastobeshared,andsharedgenuinely.TheIsraelicapital,ofcourse,wouldbeinWestJerusalem,butEastJerusalemsho