Ken Fisher费雪专栏.docx

Ken Fisher费雪专栏.docx

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KenFisher费雪专栏

KenFisher'sForbesColumns

FisherInvestmentsCEOKenFisherhasbeenwidelypublishedinthebusinessandfinancialpressintheUS,UK,Germanyandbeyond.HeisprobablybestknownforhisinvestmentcommentaryandmarketcallsinForbes,wherehehaswrittenthe"PortfolioStrategy"columnfor25years,makinghimthefourthlongest-runningcolumnistinthemagazine's90-yearhistory.AccordingtoindependentthirdpartyCXOAdvisoryGroup*,KenFisher'smarketcallshavebeenamongthemostaccurateintheindustry,andforseveralyearsKenFisherhasrankedatthetopofCXO'slistofmarketforecasters.BelowisasummaryofKenFisher'saccomplishments.

∙FounderofFisherInvestments,currentlyoneofthelargestindependentinvestmentadvisors

∙Authorofsixbooks,includingthreeNewYorkTimesbestsellers

∙ColumnistforForbesmagazineforover25years

∙PioneeredtheuseofthePrice-to-Salesratiointhe1980s

∙Top-rankedmarketforecasteraccordingtoCXOAdvisoryGroup*

∙Acknowledgedin2010asoneoftheindustry's30mostinfluentialpeopleovertheprevious30yearsbyInvestmentAdvisormagazine'sprestigiousIA-30-30list.

∙ReceivedtheBernsteinFabozziJacobsLevyAwardforoutstandingpublishedresearch

∙Pioneerinthefieldofbehavioralfinance

ThesearticlesreflectthepersonalopinionsandviewpointsoftheauthorsandshouldnotberegardedasadescriptionoftheadvisoryservicesprovidedbyFisherInvestments.FisherInvestmentsmanagesitsclients'accountsusingavarietyoftechniquesnotnecessarilydiscussedinthesearticles.Nothinginthesearticlesconstitutesinvestmentadviceoranyrecommendationwithrespecttoaparticularcountry,sector,industry,securityorportfolioofsecurities.Noassurancecanbemaderegardingtheprofitabilityofanysecuritymentionedorregardingtheaccuracyofanyforecastmade.Notallpastforecastswere,norfutureforecastsmaybe,asaccurateasthosepresented.Pastperformanceisnoguaranteeoffuturereturns.ForKen'sForbes"PortfolioStrategy"columnspriorto1997,pleasecontactusdirectlyandwewouldbepleasedtoprovidethemuponrequest.

12.01.97-Goslow:

Inflationahead

INTHEISSUEofNov.17editorJimMichaelsnotesthattheeditionincludedtheworddeflationatleastadozentimes.Henotedthat,basedondeflation,fourcommentatorswererecommendingbonds.Idisagreewiththedeflationthesis.Wheneveryoneexpectsdeflation,itwonthappen--oritsalreadypricedintosecurities.Inflation:

通胀

Ifmoneyiscreatedrapidly,wecantgetdeflation.Globally,centralbanksareprintingmoneylikedrunkensailors.Ineverbelieveanycountryspublishedeconomicdata,butthisprocessisubiquitous:

Idontneedprecisedatatoseeit.Yetitisseldomcited,increasingitsforceasasurprisefactortoimpactpricing.Deflationisanonstarter.AsMiltonFriedmanhassaidsowellforsolong,inflationisalwaysandeverywhereamonetaryphenomenon.Deflation,too.Youcanthaveitwhentheprintingpressesareonovertime.

Thismoney-creationshouldkeepthebullmarketaliveforawhile.Itwillendwheninflationgetsugly.Thatswhatsinstore,notdeflation.Idontknowwhen--butitscoming.

Idontbuythedeflationtrend,andIdontbuythesmall-stocktrend,either.Readersnowaskifthethirdquarterssmall-stockrallyisntthenewbasictrend.

Idontthinkso.Thereallyimportanttrendsarenttheonesthemediagetquickly.Theygetthebigtrendslate,verylate.Therecentstrengthinsmallcapsisephemeral,abounce-backthatIthinkisalreadyover.Thatthemediawassoquickrecentlytojumponthesmall-capbandwagonsuggeststomethatbigstockswilloutperformthesmallfry.

Lateinbullmarketsandthenafterwardinbearmarkets,smallstocksusuallylagmostoftheway.Ifsmallstocksreallyhavejustbegunabig,longmove,thenthebullmarkethasalong,longwaytogo,inwhichcaseyoucanalsomakegoodmoneyinbigcaps.Buthey--whileintact,itsanoldbull.Icantseeitrunningfarenoughtomakesmallstockspayoff.Forgetthattalk.

Ifyouwantdiversificationawayfrombig-capleaders,dontgotosmallcaps.TrylargeContinentalEuropeanstocks,andhugeJapaneseglobalexporters.TheyarepumpingmoneyoutinJapanandtheContinent,anditsgoingtorevivethoseeconomiesforawhileandstrengthentheirstockmarkets.

Forexample,BancoSantander（27,STD）isupabout60%sinceIfirstsuggesteditat17onNov.4,1996（aftera3-for-1stocksplit）.Iexpectmore.SpainisleadingEuropeseconomicrecovery,andIdontthinkSpainslargestcommercialbankwillslowdownuntiltherestofEuropefinallyspeedsup.EvennowitisnotoverpricedataP/Eof14witha2.4%dividendyield.

TeleDanmark（29,TLD）isnotonlybig,anddominantinitsmarket,butitischeapandfinanciallystrong.AsDenmarksprimetelecomsupplier,ithasvirtualmonopolypowertoexploittrendsliketheInternet.Hence,noteAmeritechsrecentmoveintothismarketbybuying34%ofTLDatabigmarkuptothestockprice.At17timesearnings,87%ofbookvalue,1timesannualrevenueanda4.6%dividendyield,itscheap.

OnSept.22IrecommendedElectrolux（82,ELUXY）at70asafollow-ontomySept.9,1996recommendationat55,sayingtolookfor100.Afterahugemove,severalreaderswroteaskingaboutitandaboutmydividendcomment（whichhadtwocombinedcopyeditingscrew-upsonmypart--maybeIfiguredIdgetallmycopyeditingerrorsforoneyearintoonesentence--sorry）.Well,ELUXYmaybeabitaheadofitself.Istillexpect100,butIwouldholdoff,waitingforabetterbuyingopportunity.

Kubota（66,KUB）,Hitachi（74,HIT）andMatsushita（163,MC）havebeenamongmyworstrecommendationsofthelastyear.AllthreesufferfromtherareJdisease.Butthisbugwillpass.Japanwillriseagain.

OnereadersayshisegoisbruisedfromfollowingmyrecommendationsontheseJapanesestocks.Mine,too.Butiftheyweregoodbuysbefore,theyarebetterbyfarnow.Thefirmsarefine.Kubotaisdoingparticularlywellinitsbasicbusiness,evolvingfrommodestearningsgainsinitsbasicfarmmachinerybusiness,butalsoaddingnewproductsatarapidclip.Bepatient.PacificRimvolatilitymaydelayJapansrecovery,butitiscoming.

12.15.97-Buyhigh,sellsmall

THERECENTTURMOILnotwithstanding,IcontinuetoliketheverylargestU.S.stocks,manyofwhicharelotslike1972'sinfamousNiftyFifty.Somereaderscomplain,"Howcanyouownthesegrosslyoverpricedstocks-likeGillette（91,G）andMicrosoft（136,MSFT）?

"SomereadersrecallthatyearsagoIfavoredsmall,cheapstocks.HaveIgonenuts?

Ihopenotanddon'tthinkso.Theobviousrarelygetsyouanywhereinthestockmarket,andthehighpricesofthesestocksisobvious.Peopledon'texpectthesestockstodosowell,sotheycan.

Furthermore,thebullmarkethasgottenveryoldandabearmarketiscoming.No,I'mnotbearish.Infact,therecentmarketvolatilityhasmadememorebullishratherthanbearishlookingat1998.Butbigstocksdobetterthansmalloneslateinbullmarketsaswellasinbearmarkets.Youcancountonqualitytoholdupprettywellintheearlystagesofabearmarket.Take1973-74.Ninemonthsintothatdecline,onSept.30,1973,theoverpricedNiftyFiftyglamourstocksweredownonlyabout3%onaverage,whiletheS&P500wasdown8%.Onlyattheveryendofthatcrash,in1974,didtheNiftiestakeabath.

Idon'tthinktherewasonebigbearmarketthiscenturywherethe35largeststocksasawholedidworsethanthemarket.

LateinabullmarketIlikehugestocks,cheapandexpensiveonesalike.YoucanownGilletteandMicrosoftandcheaperhugestockslikeGeneralMotors（67,GM）andMobilOil（74,MOB）.I'lltakethemallifthey're$50billioninmarketcaporbigger.

Forallofthisfall'sturbulence,wearenotyetinabearmarket.Whenweare,here'swhatIrecommend:

Buyaputonasmall-capindex.Assmallstocksfallmorethanhugeonesdo,theputrisesinvaluemorethanhugestocksfall,andwemakemoneyoverall.

Ihearfromreaderswhorebelatmynotionofavoidingsmallstocks.Ifabearmarketisclose,smallisdead.Ifitisyearsaway,okay,buteventhenhugestockswillrisewithlessriskthansmallfry.FornowIcontinuetourgereaderstohave55%oftheirequitymoneyinthe35largestdomesticstocksand45%insuchoverseascompaniesas:

Sony（80,SNE）isagreatcombinationofelectronics,entertainment,hugesize,greatbrandsandglobalness.Itsconsumerelectronicsareubiquitous.Ironically,wedon'teventhinkofSonywhenwebuyCBSrecordsorgotoaColumbiaPicturesmovie.At65%ofannualrevenueand2.4timesbookvalue,Sonyisfarcheaperthanits25timesearningssounds.Its$31billionmarketvalueand$51billionrevenuegiveitthesizeanddiversitytoberelativelyresistanttoregionaldowndrafts.

SimilarisNetherlands-basedUnileverN.V.（59,UN）.It'sgotenoughgreatfoodandconsumerproductbrandnamestochallengeaphotographicmemory,whilestillhavingdynamitefranchises.Thestockisabargain,withamarketcapitalizationjust70%ofannualrevenue.Here,too,itshuge$38billionmarketvalueand$57billionannualrevenuereducesriskinaroughglobalworld.

SeveralreadersaskifIstilllikeanotherNetherlands-basedfirm,AkzoNobel（87,AKZOY）.IfirstrecommendeditonSept.9,1996at58andthenagainonJune16at69.Ido,butnotasmuchasIusedtowhenitwascheaper.Isaiditwouldgoto100,andsomereadersaregettingedgywithalltherecentvolatilityandwanttoknowiftheyshouldboltnow.I'veactuallyraisedmyexpectationsto120bytheyear2000.That'san18%returnbeforethe2