克鲁格曼国际经济学理论与政策下册国际金融.docx

克鲁格曼国际经济学理论与政策下册国际金融.docx

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克鲁格曼国际经济学理论与政策下册国际金融

CHAPTER12

NationalIneAccountingandtheBalanceofPayments

AnswerstoTextbookProblems

1.ThereasonforincludingonlythevalueoffinalgoodsandservicesinGNP,asstatedinthequestion,istoavoidtheproblemofdoublecounting.DoublecountingwillnotoccurifintermediateimportsaresubtractedandintermediateexportedgoodsareaddedtoGNPaccounts.ConsiderthesaleofU.S.steeltoToyotaandtoGeneralMotors.ThesteelsoldtoGeneralMotorsshouldnotbeincludedinGNPsincethevalueofthatsteelissubsumedinthecarsproducedintheUnitedStates.ThevalueofthesteelsoldtoToyotawillnotenterthenationalineaccountsinamorefinishedstatesincethevalueoftheToyotagoestowardsJapaneseGNP.ThevalueofthesteelshouldbesubtractedfromGNPinJapansinceU.S.factorsofproductionreceivepaymentforit.

2.Equation2canbewrittenasCA=（Sp-I）+（T-G）.HigherU.S.barrierstoimportsmayhavelittleornoimpactuponprivatesavings,investment,andthebudgetdeficit.Iftherewerenoeffectonthesevariablesthenthecurrentaccountwouldnotimprovewiththeimpositionoftariffsorquotas.Itispossibletotellstoriesinwhichtheeffectonthecurrentaccountgoeseitherway.Forexample,investmentcouldriseinindustriesprotectedbythetariff,worseningthecurrentaccount.（Indeed,tariffsaresometimesjustifiedbytheallegedneedtogiveailingindustriesachancetomodernizetheirplantandequipment.）Ontheotherhand,investmentmightfallinindustriesthatfaceahighercostofimportedintermediategoodsasaresultofthetariff.Ingeneral,permanentandtemporarytariffshavedifferenteffects.Thepointofthequestionisthatapredictionofthemannerinwhichpoliciesaffectthecurrentaccountrequiresageneral-equilibrium,macroeconomicanalysis.

3.a.ThepurchaseoftheGermanstockisadebitintheU.S.financialaccount.ThereisacorrespondingcreditintheU.S.financialaccountwhentheAmericanpayswithacheckonhisSwissbankaccountbecausehisclaimsonSwitzerlandfallbytheamountofthecheck.ThisisacaseinwhichanAmericantradesoneforeignassetforanother.

b.Again,thereisaU.S.financialaccountdebitasaresultofthepurchaseofaGermanstockbyanAmerican.ThecorrespondingcreditinthiscaseoccurswhentheGermansellerdepositstheU.S.checkinitsGermanbankandthatbanklendsthemoneytoaGermanimporter（inwhichcasethecreditwillbeintheU.S.currentaccount）ortoanindividualorcorporationthatpurchasesaU.S.asset（inwhichcasethecreditwillbeintheU.S.financialaccount）.Ultimately,therewillbesomeactiontakenbythebankwhichresultsinacreditintheU.S.balanceofpayments.

c.TheforeignexchangeinterventionbytheFrenchgovernmentinvolvesthesaleofaU.S.asset,thedollarsitholdsintheUnitedStates,andthusrepresentsadebititemintheU.S.financialaccount.TheFrenchcitizenswhobuythedollarsmayusethemtobuyAmericangoods,whichwouldbeanAmericancurrentaccountcredit,oranAmericanasset,whichwouldbeanAmericanfinancialaccountcredit.

d.Supposethepanyissuingthetraveler’scheckusesacheckingaccountinFrancetomakepayments.WhenthispanypaystheFrenchrestaurateurforthemeal,itspaymentrepresentsadebitintheU.S.currentaccount.Thepanyissuingthetraveler’scheckmustsellassets（depleteitscheckingaccountinFrance）tomakethispayment.ThisreductionintheFrenchassetsownedbythatpanyrepresentsacreditintheAmericanfinancialaccount.

e.Thereisnocreditordebitineitherthefinancialorthecurrentaccountsincetherehasbeennomarkettransaction.

f.ThereisnorecordingintheU.S.BalanceofPaymentsofthisoffshoretransaction.

4.ThepurchaseoftheansweringmachineisacurrentaccountdebitforNewYork,andacurrentaccountcreditforNewJersey.WhentheNewJerseypanydepositsthemoneyinitsNewYorkbankthereisafinancialaccountcreditforNewYorkandacorrespondingdebitforNewJersey.IfthetransactionisincashthenthecorrespondingdebitforNewJerseyandcreditforNewYorkalsoshowupintheirfinancialaccounts.NewJerseyacquiresdollarbills（animportofassetsfromNewYork,andthereforeadebititeminitsfinancialaccount）;NewYorklosesthedollars（anexportofdollarbills,andthusafinancialaccountcredit）.Noticethatthislastadjustmentisanalogoustowhatwouldoccurunderagoldstandard（seeChapter19）.

5.a.Sincenon-centralbankcapitalinflowsfellshortofthecurrent-accountdeficitby$500million,thebalanceofpaymentsofPecunia（officialsettlementsbalance）was-$500million.Thecountryasawholesomehowhadtofinanceits$1billioncurrent-accountdeficit,soPecunia'snetforeignassetsfellby$1billion.

b.Bydippingintoitsforeignreserves,thecentralbankofPecuniafinancedtheportionofthecountry'scurrent-accountdeficitnotcoveredbyprivatefinancialinflows.OnlyifforeigncentralbankshadacquiredPecunianassetscouldthePecuniancentralbankhaveavoidedusing$500millioninreservestopletethefinancingofthecurrentaccount.Thus,Pecunia'scentralbanklost$500millioninreserves,whichwouldappearasanofficialfinancialinflow（ofthesamemagnitude）inthecountry'sbalanceofpaymentsaccounts.

c.IfforeignofficialcapitalinflowstoPecuniawere$600million,thecountryhadabalanceofpaymentssurplusof$100million.Putanotherway,thecountryneededonly$1billiontocoveritscurrent-accountdeficit,but$1.1billionflowedintothecountry.ThePecuniancentralbankmust,therefore,haveusedtheextra$100millioninforeignborrowingtoincreaseitsreserves.PurchasesofPecunianassetsbyforeigncentralbanksentertheircountries'balanceofpaymentsaccountsasoutflows,whicharedebititems.TherationaleisthatthetransactionsresultinforeignpaymentstothePecunianswhoselltheassets.

d.Alongwithnon-centralbanktransactions,theaccountswouldshowanincreaseinforeignofficialreserveassetsheldinPecuniaof$600million（afinancialaccountcredit,orinflow）andanincreasePecunianofficialreserveassetsheldabroadof$100billion（afinancialaccountdebit,oroutflow）.Ofcourse,totalnetfinancialinflowsof$1billionjustcoverthecurrent-accountdeficit.

6.Acurrentaccountdeficitorsurplusisasituationwhichmaybeunsustainableinthelongrun.Thereareinstancesinwhichadeficitmaybewarranted,forexampletoborrowtodaytoimproveproductivecapacityinordertohaveahighernationalinetomorrow.Butforanyperiodofcurrentaccountdeficittheremustbeacorrespondingperiodinwhichspendingfallsshortofine（i.e.acurrentaccountsurplus）inordertopaythedebtsincurredtoforeigners.Intheabsenceofunusualinvestmentopportunities,thebestpathforaneconomymaybeoneinwhichconsumption,relativetoine,issmoothedoutovertime.

Thereservesofforeigncurrencyheldbyacountry'scentralbankchangewithnonzerovaluesofitsofficialsettlementsbalance.Centralbanksusetheirforeigncurrencyreservestoinfluenceexchangerates.Adepletionofforeignreservesmaylimitthecentralbank'sabilitytoinfluenceorpegtheexchangerate.Forsomecountries（particularlydevelopingcountries）,central-bankreservesmaybeimportantasawayofallowingtheeconomytomaintainconsumptionorinvestmentwhenforeignborrowingisdifficult.Ahighlevelofreservesmayalsoperformasignalingrolebyconvincingpotentialforeignlendersthatthecountryiscredit-worthy.Thebalanceofpaymentsofareserve-currencycenter（suchastheUnitedStatesundertheBrettonWoodssystem）raisesspecialissuesbestpostponeduntilChapter18.

7.Theofficialsettlementsbalance,alsocalledthebalanceofpayments,showsthenetchangeininternationalreservesheldbyU.S.governmentagencies,suchastheFederalReserveandtheTreasury,relativetothechangeindollarreservesheldbyforeigngovernmentagencies.Thisaccountprovidesapartialpictureoftheextentofinterventionintheforeignexchangemarket.Forexample,supposetheBundesbankpurchasesdollarsanddepositstheminitsEurodollaraccountinaLondonbank.Althoughthistransactionisaformofintervention,itwouldnotappearintheofficialsettlementsbalanceoftheUnitedStates.Instead,whentheLondonbankcreditsthisdepositinitsaccountintheUnitedStates,thistransactionwillappearasaprivatefinancialflow.

8.Acountrycouldhaveacurrentaccountdeficitandabalanceofpaymentssurplusatthesametimeifthefinancialandcapitalaccountsurplusesexceededthecurrentaccountdeficit.Recallthatthebalanceofpaymentssurplusequalsthecurrentaccountsurplusplusthefinancialaccountsurplusplusthecapitalaccountsurplus.If,forexample,thereisacurrentaccountdeficitof$100million,buttherearelargecapitalinflowsandthecapitalaccountsurplusis$102million,thentherewillbea$2millionbalanceofpaymentssurplus.

Thisproblemcanbeusedasanintroductiontointervention（orlackthereof）intheforeignexchangemarket,atopictakenupinmoredetailinChapter17.ThegovernmentoftheUnitedStatesdidnotinterveneinanyappreciablemannerintheforeignexchangemarketsinthefirsthalfofthe1980s.The“textbook〞consequenceofthisisabalanceofpaymentsofzero,whiletheactualfiguresshowedaslightbalanceofpaymentssurplusbetween1982and1985.Theseyearswerealsomarkedbylargecurrentaccountdeficits.Thus,thefinancialinflowsintotheUnitedStatesbetween1982and1985exceededthecurrentaccountdeficitsinthoseyears.

CHAPTER13