外文翻译WTO对中国房地产市场的影响.docx

外文翻译WTO对中国房地产市场的影响.docx

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外文翻译WTO对中国房地产市场的影响

TheChineseRealEstateMarketandtheeffectsofWTO

China'simpendingentryintheWorldTradeOrganization（WTO）willbeablessingtotherealestateindustryinChinawhichhashadlittletocelebratesincethebustlingdaysoftheearly-mid1990's.

WTOentrysendsapositivemessagetoforeigncompaniesaboutChina'scommitmenttoeconomicandmarketreforms.Demandfromforeigncompanies-theprimaryoccupantsoftop-qualitycommercial,industrialandresidentialprojectsislikelytoincreaseasnewcompaniesenterthemarketandothersexpandasrestrictionsaregraduallylifted.

Itis,however,prematuretosayexactlyhowmuchtherealestatemarketwillbenefit.TopredictthatWTOentrywillmeanrisingrentsanddemandformoreconstructionintheshorttermis,perhaps,misguided.

Thedetailsoftheagreementarenotyetknown,anditislikelythattheimpactwillbegradualandunevenlyspreadamongstbusinessesandindifferentareasofChina.Financialservices,telecommunications,distributionandlogistics,informationtechnology,agriculture,andprofessionalservicesindustries,aswellasChineseconsumers,arelikelytobesignificantwinners.

Metropolitanareasmayseebenefitsduetoeasingofrestrictionsonfinancialservicescompanies.Banksandinsurancecompaniesareamajorindustrysectorintheseareas,andtheliftingofrestrictionsontheiractivitiescouldunleashsignificantlatentdemandforrealestateasthereformstakehold.Theliftingoftraderestrictions,theloweringoftariffsandtheeasingofrestrictionsondistributionoverthenextfiveyearswillbeaboonforwarehousing,logisticsanddistributionrealestateinChina'sbusiestportcity,aswellasintherestofChina.

WhileWTOentrymayencouragearecoveryinrealestatemarketssoonerthanotherwiseexpected,almosteverymajormarketinthecountryremainsvastlyoverbuilt.Intheofficesector,thevacancyrateforGradeAbuildingsispresently30%inBeijingand38%inShanghai.Basedonrecenttrendsindemand,thisvacantofficespacewilltaketwotothreeyearstobeabsorbed,andthereismoreconstructionunderway.

Chinawillcontinuetoreapeconomicrewardsfromthecomprehensivepackageofhousingreformsthatthecentralgovernmenthasbeencontinuallyintroducing.Themostrecentdevelopmentinthenewpolicyisthereplacementofmonetarysubsidiesforwelfarehousingdistribution.Thisnewmovebuildsonthe1998directive,whichendedtheprovisionofsubsidizedhousingtopublicservants.Thereforms,coupledwithanincreasedreadinessonthepartofbankstograntresidentialmortgages,areexpectedtopromotethesaleofhousingandfacilitatehousingconstruction.

WhileitisChinesecitizenswhowillbenefitmostfromthehousingreforms,foreignersmayalsohavetheopportunitytoparticipateintherealestateboom.Foreignbanksareseekingpermissiontocompeteinthehugemortgagemarketandpurveyorsofbuildingmaterials,furniture,householdappliancesandinteriordesignservicesarenowhoninginontheChinesemarket.AnyrestrictionsorconditionstowhichforeigncompaniesarepresentlysubjectarelikelytoberelaxedorliftedcompletelyuponChina'saccessiontotheWorldTradeOrganization.

Thisstrongsocialistprincipleofstateownershipofrealpropertyhasbeensomewhatcircumventedbytheintroductionof'land-userights'.Aland-userightiscreatedwhentheowneroftheland（theStateoracollective）separatesoneormoreoftherightsofpossession,useandbenefitfromthecompleterightofownershipandgrantsthemtoanotherlegalperson.Land-userightsinpracticeareacquiredbywayofagrantorbymeansofallocationbytheState.Therightsexistforadefinitetermrangingfrom40yearsforcommercial,touristandrecreationalpurposesto70yearsforresidentialpurposes.

Theland-userightsholdermaythenexercisetherightsgranted,butthelandmustbeusedinaccordancewiththeland-grantcontract.AnamendmenttotheConstitutionin1988confirmedthat'therightstotheuseoflandmaybetransferredinaccordancewithlaw'.Dependingonthestipulationsoftheland-grantcontract,andtheextentoftherightsgrantedtheholdermayhavearightthatispracticallythesameasownership,albeitforalimitedtime.

Thus,notwithstandingthesocialisttenetthatthereshallbenoprivateownershipofland,anordinaryChinesecitizenmaylegallyownhishouse,and,inconjunctionwithanappropriatelanduseright,mayforallintentsandpurposesownthelandandeverythingaboveit.Accordingly,aChineserealestatemarketthattradesland-userightscoupledwiththestructuresonthelandhasgraduallyevolved.

CentraltothenewhousingpoliciesisthedesireoftheChinesegovernmenttofacilitatethepurchaseofhousingbyChinesecitizens.Thisdeviationfromtraditionalsocialistprinciplesisaimedatbringingaboutincreasedconsumption,abroadeningofemploymentopportunitiesandtherenewedavailabilityofgovernmentresources.Mostprovinces,autonomousregionsandmunicipalitieshavealreadyformulatedschemesforthesaleofpublichousingtoindividuals.Todate,approximately60percentofsuchhousinghasbeensoldnationwide.

Politicalandideologicalnotionsaside,therecenthousingreformshavehadvasteconomicramifications.China'sfledglingrealestatemarketoftheearly1990shasnowblossomed:

overthepasttwoyears,investmentinrealestatehasbeengrowingby20percentperyear.401billionYuanwasinvestedinrealestatedevelopmentnationwidein1999.Housingconstructionhasincreaseddramaticallyanditispredictedthatatleast55millionsquaremetersoffloorspacewillbeaddedyear-on-yearuntil2010.

Inresponsetobothgovernmentinitiativesandmarkettrends,bankswillendeavortoincreasethenumberofloansgrantedforrealestatepurposes.ThebalanceofsuchloansbyChina'sstate-ownedcommercialbanksreached355.6billionYuanbytheendof1999.Commercialbankswillalsofocusonmakingagreateramountofhousingmortgageloansavailabletoindividualsin2000.Theprojectedtargetforsuchloansis100billionYuan.ThePeople'sBankofChinahaspledgedtostrengthensupervisionofthegrantingofhousingloans.TheChinaConstructionBankhasgoneonestepfurtherthanitscompetitorsbyannouncingthatthegrantofhousingloansinChina'scentralandwesternareaswillbeaccordedaspecialpriority.

Inevitably,thehousingreformsarenotfreefromalldifficulties.ThegradualevolutionofamarketeconomyinChinahascrackedthe'ironricebowl'.Withthedemiseinprominenceofstate-ownedenterprisesandtherebirthoftheprivateeconomy,Chineseworkerscannolongerexpectlifetimeemployment.Andnow,withtheintroductionofamonetarysubsidy,Chinesecitizenscannolongerbankonthesecurityofwelfarehousing.Willthisholdbackanyforeseeingboom?

ArealestateboominChinawillinevitablyfuelthenationaleconomy,providingindirectbenefitstoallforeigninvestors.Butitisoverseasrealestatedeveloperswhoarepoisedtoreapthemostgains,fortheyalreadyenjoypreferentialtreatmentbywayofexemptionfrominvestmentregulatorytaxes,easyaccesstofund-raisingandfreedomtoremitprofitsabroad.

HighdemandandprofitpotentialinChina'shousingmarketmaketheindustryakeyinvestmenttargetforforeignfinancialinstitutions,whowillofferrealestatedevelopersfinancialservicesrangingfromfeasibilitystudiestoconsulting,thearticlesaid.

Mostinvestmentwouldgototheresidentialhousingmarket,andincreasinglyinChina'smedium-sizedandsmallercities,thearticlesaid.

China'sidleofficeconstructionindustrywillbeadirectbeneficiaryofthemushroomingofforeign-investedfactoriesandbranchofficeslikelytofollowinthewakeofChina'sWTOentry,thearticlesaid.

China'sdomesticbuildingmaterialsindustry,however,whichhasfewkeyproductsandminimalexposuretointernationalmarkets,willbenegativelyimpactedbyChina'sentrytoWTO.

Butdomesticdeveloperswouldbenefitfromthedownwardpressureonbuildingmaterials,andChina'saccessionwouldlowerimporttariffs.Cheapermaterialswillbringbuildingcostsdown,sohousingcostsshouldfallaswell.

Inthemediumtolongterm,theinstitutionalizedreformsrequiredbyWTOrulesarelikelytohaveapositiveimpactforrealestateinvestorsandoccupiersasaresultofincreasedbusinessactivityandthemoresystematicdevelopmentofChina'seconomyasawhole.

ThecommercialandresidentialmarketsareoverbuiltbecausetoomanydevelopersrushedintoChinaatthesametime,andthestrongdemandwasjustnotenoughtofillthespace.WTOwillbeaboostonthedemandside,andmayjustfulfillsomeofthehopesthatinvestorshadwhentheycametoChina.

Likethecommercialmarket,theexpatriatehousingmarketwillbepositivelyaffected.Whilecertaincompanieshavebeenreducingexpatriatesinthelastseveralyears（oratleasttheproportionofexpatriatestooverallemployees）,thewaveofnewcompaniescomingtoChinawilllikelybringmoreseniorexpatriatemanagers,howeveraccordingtotheAmCham2000HousingSurvey,foreigncompaniesplannottohireasmanyexpatriatesintheupcomingyear.WTOwillhaveapositiveeffectonthemarketandtherewillbemoreexpatriatesenteringChinafromsmallerormediumsizedbusinesses.It'snotallhype.

SomeeconomistsbelievethatWTOmembershipisbeingoverpublicized,butothersseeitastheanswertoBeijing'srealestateproblems.ItisgenerallybelievedthatChina'spendingentryintotheWorldTradeOrganizationwillbeablessingforBeijing'srealestatemarket,whichhasbeendepressedsincetheeconomic