典型的技术形态.docx
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典型的技术形态
TECHNICALCHARTPATTERNSCHARACTERISTICS
典型技术形态
ObtainedfromthebookbyThomasN.Bulkowski,Encyclopediaof ChartPatterns
摘自ThomasN.Bulkowski,形态百科全书
Note!
MosttechnicalAnalysischartpatternstypicallyoccurslowlyovera3monthsto4monthstimespan.Therefore,youshouldonly
seriouslyuseaweeklychartprofilesettingandatleast
one-yearsworthofweeklytimeplots..
注意：
大部分技术形态由3-4月的时间跨度慢慢形成，因此您必须在至少一年以上的周图图表上应用。
TOP10BULLISH TECHNICALCHARTFORMATIONS WITHHIGHESTMOSTLIKELYRISE!
前10大看涨技术形态及最大可能涨幅
AVG.
FAILURES%
平均失败几率
AVG.RISE%
平均涨幅
LIKELYRISE%
很可能的涨幅
1.RoundingTops，圆弧顶
6%
41%
30%
2.BroadeningFormations,RightAngled
&Descending扩散及下降直角三角形
19%
27%
25%
3.Scallops,Ascending上升扇形
25%
33%
25%
4.Head-and-ShouldersBottoms,
Complex复合头肩底
6%
37%
25%
5.HornBottoms喇叭底
11%
37%
25%
6.Head-and-ShouldersBottoms头肩底
5%
38%
25%
7.DoubleBottoms双底
3%
40%
25%
8.Wedges,Falling下降契形
2%
43%
25%
9.RectangleTop,UpBreakout长方形顶，向上突破
2%
52%
25%
10.Flags,HighandTight旗型
17%
63%
25%
TOP10BEARISHTECHNICALCHARTFORMATIONSWITHHIGHESTMOSTLIKELYDECLINE!
前10大看跌技术形态，最大及最可能的跌幅
AVG.
FAILURES%
平均失败几率
AVG.DECLINE%
平均跌幅
LIKELYDECLINE%
最可能的跌幅
1.Pennant,trenddown，下降三角形
34%
17%
25%
2.Scallops,Descending下降扇形
3%
24%
20%
3.Head-and-Shoulders, 复合头肩顶
Tops,Complex
8%
27%
20%
4.DiamondTops钻石顶
25%
21%
20%
5.BroadeningWedges,Descending, DownBreakout
扩散契形，下降突破
41%
24%
20%
6.RectangleTops,DownBreakout长方形下突破
0%
20%
20%
7.BroadeningBottoms, 扩散底，向下突破
DownBreakout
6%
27%
17.5%
8.Bump-and-RunReversalTops碰撞反转顶
19%
24%
17.5%
9.BroadeningTops,Downbreakout扩散顶，向下突破
4%
23%
15%
10.Triangles,Descending下降三角形
4%
19%
15%
PATTERNCHARACTERISTICS
形态特征
#1Bullish!
#1看涨
Oneofthemostbullishanddependablechartpatternwithonlya6%failurerateandanaveragepositiveriseof41%.Theaveragerisewas30%.Thesepatternchartformationsareoftenlongenoughtoappearontheweeklychartsanddailycharts.
仅6%失败的最可靠的看涨形态，平均正涨幅41%，平均上涨涨幅30%，这种形态常常需要够长的时间，在周线图和日线图上出现。
PatternShape-Roundedhalf-moonshape.Thestockpricetrendcurvesbeginningfromthelowerleftpricepointupwardtothetopofthedomethenthepricetrendroundsoverandmovesdownagaintoalowerpricesupportarea.
形态描述：
半月形，价格曲线从左边低点向上到半月形顶部，然后又向下运行到开始的低点的支撑区域
TradingTactics-Theaveragetradeforentryshouldoccurontherightsideofthedomewhenthepriceclosesabovethedomeoratcrestforthemoreaggressiveinvestors.
交易策略：
一般交易者在圆弧的右侧进场，激进的交易者在价格到达圆弧顶部上面一点的位置进场
WINs®-Thispatternhasanupwardbiasandisidealforwritingcoveredcallsand/orleapsspreads.Itispossibletotimeyourwritesandgethigherpremiumsforyourwrites.Leggingintoaspreadwouldbemoreaggressive.
PATTERNCHARACTERISTICS
#2Bullish!
Contrarytopopularbelief,morechartpattersnwithright-angleddescendingbroadeningformationsbreakoutupwardsthandownwards.
#2看涨形态
相对于普遍的看法，直角下降三角向上突破的可能超过向下突破的可能
PatternShape-Lookslikeamegaphone,tilteddownward,withthetoptheformationhorizontal&boundonthebottombyadownwardbiasedslopingtrendline.
形态描述：
看起来像个喇叭，顶部由水平趋势线，底部由倾斜的趋构成，价格打到底部反弹冲破顶部趋势线
TradingTactics-Theupperpricetagsmustformahorizontalline.Thereisnoconsistentvolumepatternforthisformation.Note!
Pricescanbreakoutineitherdirection,usuallywithariseinvolumethatsoontapersoff.
交易战术：
WINs®-ThispatternworksgreatwithdeterminingthestrikepricesforCCsandLEAPsspreads.Thebackandforthmovementsmaketheoptionpremiumshigher.Watchoutforthethirdandfourthupmovetogappingprices!
PATTERNCHARACTERISTICS
#3Bullish!
Ascendingscallopsappearwhenthestockpricesaremovinghigherover3,6,ormoremonths.
#3看涨形态
上升扇形一般出现价格上涨3，6或更长的时间形成
PatternShape-AscendingformationshaveaJshapeandhavetwopricepeakswitharoundedpricerecessioninbetween.
TradingTactics-AscendingscallopsoftenshowaU-shapedvolumetrendthatgetsheavierovertime.YoucanaveragedownorlegintoaCCorLEAPsspreads.
WINs®-WatchoutforgapspassyourCCsstrikeprices.LEAPsspreadersshouldgoshortonemonthouttoavoidbeingcalledoutorhavingarun-a-wayposition.
PATTERNCHARACTERISTICS
#4Bullish!
Thisformationhadonlya6%failureratewhichisoutstanding.Whenthenecklineslopesdownwardatindicated,thestockperformesbetter.
PatternShape-AH&Sbottomwithmultipleshoulders,mutipleheads,or（rarely）both.Theheadislowerthantheshouldersbutnotverymuch.
TradingTactics-Usuallyhighervolumeontheleftsideofshouldersthanthanthecorrespondingshouldersontherightside.Greatstocktoplayupanddownwithcallsandputsorshorting.
WINs®-Greatstocktogenerateconsiderablepremiumswithupthedowncyclesbeforeallowingthestocktoappreciateinvalueandcashout.
PATTERNCHARACTERISTICS
#5Bullish!
GreatCCingpatternforstockpricerisewhenthehornlengthsareatleasttwiceaslongthanmostspikesovertheprioryear.
PatternShape-Usetheweeklyprofiletolocatetwodownwardspikesinthehornsseparatedbyaweekworthoftime.
TradingTactics-Theleftspikeshowshigherthanaveragevolumeandthusmorevolatility. Somehornsappearneartheendofuptrends,sowatchforthetrendtochange!
WINs®-Hornswillusuallynotmarktheendofthedowntrends,buttheywillbeclose.Pricesmightcontinuetodriftdownfor$1orsothenheadupward.Letthetrendbeyourfriend!
PATTERNCHARACTERISTICS
#6Bullish!
H&SBottomsarequiteeasytospotandtheycanbeveryprofitable.H&Sbottomsmeetsitspricetargets83%ofthetime.
PatternShape-Athree-humpformationwiththecenterhumpbelowtheothertwo.Thethreehumpsandtwominorrisesshouldbewelldefined.
TradingTactics-Thelineslantedtotherightistheneckline.Thepriceusuallyadvancesabovethenecklineandstagesanupsidebreakout.
WINs®-Volumeisusuallyhighestontheleftshoulderorheadanddimishesontherightshoulder.Upwaredbreakoutsoccurusuallywithhighvolume.Alowvolumebreakoutisnotanindictorofanimpendingfailure.
PATTERNCHARACTERISTICS
#7Bullish!
Adoublebottomoccursafteradownwardpricetrend.Highvolumecommonlyoccursonthefirstbottom.
PatternShape-ShapedlikeabiguppercaseWthatusuallytakesapproxiately4monthsworthoftimetocompletetheformationpattern.
TradingTactics-2/3softhedoublebottomthrowbacktothebreakoutprice.Therefore,considerwaitingforthethrowbackandreversal forpricestoheadupwardagain.
WINs®-Bottomshumpsthatareclosertogetherusuallyshowlargerpricegainsandbreakouts.Itissuggestedthatyouaveragedownorlegintopositionswithsideshows.
PATTERNCHARACTERISTICS
#8Bullish!
Thefailurerateforfallingwedgesisverylowat10%whiletheaverageriseof43%forthisindicatorsuggestaprofitableformationtotrade.Thehighestpriceafterthebreakoutisapprox.thebeginningofthetrendlines.
PatternShape-Twodrawndownward-slopingtotherightsidetrendlinesthateventuallymustintersect.Usethetrendlinefeaturetodrawthelines.Mostformationshaveatleastfivetouches.3ononesideand2ontheotherside.
TradingTactics-Mostfallingwedgeshasamininumdurationof3-wksormore.Anythinglessismostlikelyapennant.Formationsrarelyexceed4monthslong.
WINs®-Bereadytocoverwhenthefallingwedgescometoanintersect.ItmaybepossibletobuyPUTsassideshowsforthemoreaggressiveinvestors.
PATTERNCHARACTERISTICS
#9Bullish!
-Thistrickypaternfailsonly2%ofthetime!
Theaverageriseisanastounding52%withalikelygainbetween20%to30%forlatecomers.
PatternShape-Stockprices oscillatesbetweentwohorizontaltrendlinesbeforebreakingupward.Lookslikebridgeironsupportstructures.
TradingTactics-Thepricewillbounceupanddownwithinapricerange.ThispatterndoestaketimetoformandyoucanmilkdeepITMCCsorLEAPsspreadsdependingonyourinvestingstyle.
WINs®-FollowthestandardapproachofwrittingCCsatthepeaksandallowingthepricetodropbeforeyoucovercheap.Thiswillprotectyourdownsideandfreeyouupwhenthepricebeginstomoveupwardagain.
PATTERNCHARACTERISTICS
#10Bullish!
Thepricegapsupwardafteraconsolidation regionofseveraldaystoseveralweekslong.Thisoccursafterthestockdoublesinprice.
PatternShape-Duringaflagphase,pricescanslowlydriftdownwardasmuchas-20%.Pricesmovesidewaysfor3to5weeks.
TradingTactics-Buyafterthebreakoutisthesafestcourseofaction.Waitforpricestoriseabovethehighesthighintheflag.
WINs®-Youcanbuyandholdoraveragedownyourposition.Letthetrendbeyourfriend.
PATTERNCHARACTERISTICS
#1Bearish!
Thispattersfoolsmanyinvestors.Pricesusuallygoagainsttheprevailingtrend.Inotherwords,thepricewilleventuallyfallasthesmartmoneyexists.
PatternShape- Therearetwopatternswhicharerelated.Flags:
priceactionboundedbytwoparalleltrendlines.
Pennants:
thetwotrendlinesconvergetoapoint.
TradingTactics-Theseformationsusuallyformnearthemidpointofasteep,quickpricetrend.Ifyoudonothaveastrongadvanceordeclineleadingtothechartpattern,ignoretheformation.
WINs®-Thiskindofpatternlastatotalof3-weeksmax.Volumeusuallytrendsdownwardthroughouttheformation."Volumeprecedesprice!
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PATTER
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