论文 中国对外贸易发展形势分析.docx

论文 中国对外贸易发展形势分析.docx

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论文中国对外贸易发展形势分析

AnalysisfortheSituationofChina’sForeignTrade2011

Submittedby：

XXXX

Class：

XXXX

Supervisedby：

XXXX

DepartmentofForeignLanguages

WuhanPolytechnic

2012-03-09

摘要

本文主要阐述了中国对外贸易的一些基本情况和总体的发展趋势。

主要通过分析相关资料和研究有关权威部门发布的报告，对中国对外贸易的基本情况，以及中国对外贸易存在的一些问题和针对这些问题应该采取的措施，做了简要的概述。

通过对这些问题的研究，得到的结论是中国对外贸易将继续保持增长态势，但增速将会有所回落。

由于对外贸易面临国内外许多复杂而又不确定的因素，中国政府还需要积极采取相应措施，以保持对外贸易的平稳发展。

关键词：

外贸背景；外贸形势；加工贸易；服务贸易；外贸展望

Abstract

ThispapermainlyintroducessomebasicinformationandthetrendofforeigntradeinChina.Throughsearchingsomerelevantinformationandanalyzingthereportissuedbythedepartmentconcerned,somebriefnarrativeshavebeenmadeaboutsomebasicsituation,problemsandsomemeasuresthatshouldbetaken.Throughresearchingthesequestions,wecanconcludethatthetendencyofforeigntradeinchinawillkeepincreasingbutthespeedwillfallafterrising.Becausetheforeigntradeisfacingmanycomplexanduncertainfactors,theChinagovernmentneedstotakesomemeasuresinordertokeeptheforeigntradestabledevelopment.

Keywords:

foreigntradebackground;thesituationofforeigntrade;processingtrade;servicetrade;theoutlookofforeigntrade

CONTENTS

1.SomebasicconditionsaboutforeigntradeinChina

Accordingtocustomstatistics,JanuarytoOctober,thetotalexport-importvolumeis2.97538trilliondollars,havingincreased24.3%yearbyyear,thegrowthisless12%thanlastyearinthesameperiod.Amongthetotalvolume,theexportis15497.1trilliondollars,havingincreased22%.Thegrowthisless10.7%thanlastyearinthesameperiod.Theimportis14256.8trilliondollars,havingincreased26.9%,thegrowthisless13.7%thanlastyearinthesameperiod.Thesurplusis1240.3trilliondollars,havingdecreased15.4%.AtOctober,theexporthasincreased15.9%,butless7%thanlastyear.Theimporthasincreased28.7%,whichisless3.4%thanlastyearinthesameperiod.Theimportandexportpresentsitstraitsasfollows:

1.1Rapidgrowthofgeneraltrade,thedeclineofprocessingtrade

JanuarytoOctober,thevolumeofgeneraltradeis15699.6trilliondollars,havingincreased31.6percent.Thegrowthofimportandexportis29.2%,33.9%respectively.Inthesameperiod,thevolumeofprocessingtradeis10719.5trilliondollars,havingincreased14.2percent.Thatisaccountedfor36%inthevolumeofimportandexport.Theproportionhasdropped3.2%comparedtothesameperiodlastyear.

1.2Theleadingpositionofforeigninvestmententerpriseinforeigntrade

1-10,theimportandexportofforeigninvestmententerprisesis$1.52366trillion,havingincreased17.8%,accountingfor51.2%ofthetotalimportandexportinChina.Amongthem,theimportandexportofthestate-ownedenterprisesandotherenterprisesaccountedfor21.1%and27.7%respectivelyinthenationalimportandexportvalue.

1.3Highvolatilityoftheimportpricesofcommodity

Influencedbygloballiquidity,thesituationofmiddleEastandnorthAfrica,theJapaneseearthquakeandotherfactors,theimportpricesofcommoditysoar,drivingtheimportamountgrowfast.January-Octobertheaverageimportpricehasrised14.7%andtheimportaveragequantityhasincreased10.6%.Amongthem,pricesofcrudeoil,iron,productoil,soybeans,edibleoilandothercommoditieshaveraised38%,33.5%,34.5%,29.8%,38.4%respectivelycomparedtolastyear.

1.4Thedeclineofforeigntradesurplus

InOctober,thesurplusdecreased36.5%,whichhasexpanded24.1%thanSeptember.Amongthem,thegeneraltradedeficitis$5.73billion（thesurplusinthesameperiodlastyearis$2.47billion）.Processingtradesurplusis$33.36billion,havingincreased9.5%.ForAmerican,thesurplusis$20.06billion,havingincreasedby11.3%;FortheEuropeanUnion,thesurplusis$13.04billion,havingdecreased10.3%.

2.Theexistingproblemsinchinaforeigntrade

2.1Thelagofdevelopmentinservicetrade

ThedevelopmentofChina’sservicetradefallsbehindtrade,theratiofortheservicetradeexportandtradeingoodsexportis1:

9,farlowerthantheworldaverage1:

4.2（theratioofAmericais1:

2.6）.

2.1.1Servicetradestructureunreasonable

Theexportsectorstructureisnotreasonable.Atpresenttheexporttradeinservicesmainlyconcentratedintransportation,tourism,constructionandothertraditionalservicedepartment.

Theservicetradecountry（region）structureisnotreasonable.TheimportandexporttradeinservicemainlyconcentratedinHongKong,theEuropeanUnion,theUnitedStatesandJapan,totalimportandexportinChinaaccountsforabout60%ofthetotalamountoftheabove.

Theservicetradedevelopmentofregionisnotenoughbalanced.China’sservicetrademainlyconcentratedinthedevelopedcoastalregions,amongthem,Beijing,Shanghai,Guangdong,ZhejiangandTianjinlistedinthetopofthenationalservicetradeexport.Beijingservicetradeaccountedfor19%ofthetotalservicetradeinourcountry.

2.1.2Theregulationsofservicetradelawnotsound

China’sservicetradelegislationlaggedbehind,whichhasabigchangeuntilrecentyears.Servicetradelegislationhasn’tbecomeasystem.Atlargesectionoffield,thelawisunderblankcondition.Alreadyissuedlawsandregulationsoftheservicetradenotonlyareabstract,butalsolackofmaneuverability.Andlegislativelevelislowandlackofcoordination,whichhasanimpactonunityandtransparencyourcountry'sservicetrade,someregulationshavecertaingapwithinternationaltraderules.

2.1.3Servicemanagementsystemlagbehind

Atpresent,Chinaforeignservicetrademanagementsystemhasmanydefects.Suchasthecentralgovernmentandlocalgovernmentstillhavesomecertaindifferencesservicesinforeigntradepolicyandregulations;Serviceindustryhasbeenmanagedbymanyparties,whichhasnotbeencompletelysolved;Serviceindustrystatisticsisalsonotstandard,thedivisionstandardintheindustry,servicestandardsofsomeplacedoesnotaccordwithinternationalpractice.

2.2Goodsseriouslyblockedbytechnicaltradebarriers

Thetechnicaltradebarriers,whichmeansthatacountryorareawanttomaintainitsbasicsecurity,humanplantsandanimalssafety,protecttheenvironment,andpreventfraud,ensurethequalityofproductsandtakesomethetechnicalmeasuresvoluntaryormandatory.

Morethan60%ofourcountryexportenterpriseencounteredoverseastechnicaltradebarriersindifferentdegree.Everyyear,theamountinforeigntechnicaltradebarriershasexceeded25%,about$45billionto$50billion.

Technicaltradebarriers,whichhasextendedtoproductionandprocessingareasfromthefieldofproductionanddistribution,includingnotonlygoodsandmerchandise,butalsoextendtofinance,informationservices,hasbecomeChina’slargestnon-tariffbarriersbeingfacedbyforeigntradeenterprises.Technicaltradebarriers,whichseriouslyaffectedthecountry'smerchandiseexportandincreasedthecountry'stradecosts,ledtotradedisputesandregionalimbalanceinindustrialdevelopment.

2.3Slowdowninworldeconomicrecovery,externaldemandgrowthmomentumstillinsufficient

Fromthecurrentsituation,althoughthesituationoftheworldeconomicrecoveryhasnotchanged,uncertainfactorsstillmore,maybeatlowlevelsinalongperiod.Sincethesecondquarterofthisyear,duetomassivestimuluspoliciesexpiredoreffectsgraduallyweakened,theUnitedStates,Japan'seconomicrecoveryisslowingdown.AlthoughthespeedoftheEuropeaneconomicrecoveryisthanexpected,theinternalimbalancesandsubsequentsluggishgrowthexist.EspeciallytheUnitedStates,European,Japanandotherdevelopedeconomies,wheretheunemploymentrateremainsathighlevels,therealestatemarketdownturn,capacityutilizationislowerthannormallevelbeforethecrisis,consumptionandinvestmentdemandisstillweak;Governmentdebtburdenisheavy,limitedroomforfurtherexpansionoffiscalpolicy;Monetarypolicycontinuedtoexpand,itislikelytofallintoaliquiditytrap,itisdifficulttopromotetherealeconomysubstantially.AlthoughBrazil,India,Russiaandotheremergingeconomieskeeprapidgrowth,inflationarypressureincrease,theriskofassetbubblesrise,thecurrencyappreciatefast,thedownsiderisksareaccumulating.TheIMFhasadjustedtheexpectedworldeconomicgrowthin2011from4.3percentto4.2percent.

Thecurrentroundofeconomicrecoveryandstructuraladjustmentareintertwinedtogether.Manycountriesinvestalotofresearchanddevelopmentfundingsinnewenergy,bio-medicine,environmentalprotectionandotherstrategicemergingindustries,butbecausethereisseriouspathdependenceineachcountry’sdevelopmentmodel,sostructureadjustmentcannotbeachievedinashorttime.Sofar,strategicandemergingindustryhasnotmadesubstantialtechnologicalbreakthroughs,realizingindustrializationandeconomiesinscaleevenmorearduoustask.Inashorttime,it’sdifficulttoleadandsupporttheworldeconomy.Therefore,theworldeconomicrecoverywillbealongandtortuousprocess,thegrowthspaceofinternationalmarketdemandwillbelimitednextyear.

2.4Moreobviousofcountries’self-careandtradeprotectionismheatup

Fromthisyear,theeconomicrecoveryprocesscontinuestofurtherdivide.TheUnitedStates,Europe,Japanandothermajoreconomiesstrengthentheself-careofmacroeconomicpolicies,risingtradeprotectionism.Recently,theU.S.dollardevaluation,hasledtoJapan,Korea,Thailandandothercountriesinterveneincurrencymarketsand"currencywar"intensifies.Inthemediumterm,thedollarwillcontinuetodevalue,exacerbatingmajorcurrencies’fight,risingbusinessriskandaffectinginternationaltr