外文翻译能源消耗能源价格与经济增长之间的关系亚洲发展中国家的时间序列证据.docx

1、外文翻译能源消耗能源价格与经济增长之间的关系亚洲发展中国家的时间序列证据中文3760字本科毕业论文外文翻译外文题目： The relationship between energy consumption, energy prices and economic growth: time series evidence from Asian developing countries 出 处： Energy Economics , 2000(22)：615-625. 作 者： John Asafu-Adjaye 原文：AbstractThis paper estimates the causal

2、relationships between energy consumption and income for India, Indonesia, the Philippines and Thailand, using cointegration and error-correction modeling techniques. The results indicate that, in the short-run, unidirectional Granger causality runs from energy to income for India and Indonesia, whil

3、e bidirectional Granger causality runs from energy to income for Thailand and the Philippines. In the case of Thailand and the Philippines, energy, income and prices are mutually causal. The study results do not support the view that energy and income are neutral with respect to each other, with the

4、 exception of Indonesia and India where neutrality is observed in the short-run.2000 Elsevier Science B.V.All rights reserved.1. IntroductionIn the past two decades numerous studies have examined the causal relation-ships between energy consumption and economic growth, with either income or employme

5、nt used as a proxy for the latter. To date, the empirical findings have been mixed or conflicting. The seminal article on this topic was published in the late seventies by Kraft and Kraft (1978) who found evidence in favor of causality running from GNP to energy consumption in the United States, usi

6、ng data for the period 1947-1974. Their findings were later supported by other researchers. For example, Akarca and Long (1979).found unidirectional Granger causality running from energy consumption to employment with no feedback, using US monthly data for the period 1973-1978.They estimated the lon

7、g-run elasticity of total employ-ment with respect to energy consumption to be -0.1356.However, these findings have been subjected to empirical challenge. Akarca and Long (1980), Erol and Yu (1987a), Yu and Choi (1985), and Yu and Hwang (1984) found no causal relationships between income (peroxide b

8、y GNP) and energy consumption. On the causal relationship between energy consumption and employ-ment, Erol and Yu (1987b,1989),Yu and Jin (1992),and Yu et al.(1988) found evidence in favor of neutrality of energy consumption with respect to employ-ment, referred to as the neutrality hypothesis. One

9、of the reasons for the disparate and often conflicting empirical findings on the relationship between energy consumption and economic growth lies in the variety of approaches and testing procedures employed in the analyses. Many of the earlier analyses employed simple log-linear models estimated by

10、ordinary least squares (OLS) without any regard for the nature of the time series properties of the variables involved. However, as has recently been proven, most economic time series are non-stationary in levels form (see Granger and Newbold, 1974).Thus, failure to account for such properties could

11、 result in misleading relationships among the variables.Following advances in time series analysis in the last decade, recent tests of the energy consumption economic growth relationship have employed bivariate causality procedures based on Granger (1969) and Sims(Sims,1972) tests. How-ever, these t

12、ests may fail to detect additional channels of causality and can also lead to conflicting results. For example, recently, Glasure and Lee (1997) tested for causality between energy consumption and GDP for South Korea and Singapore using the standard Granger test, as well as cointegration and error-c

13、orrection modeling. They found bidirectional causality between income and energy for both countries, using cointegration and error-correction modeling. However, using the standard Granger causality tests, they found no causal relationships between GDP and energy for South Korea and unidirectional Gr

14、anger causality from energy to GDP for Singapore.The direction of causation between energy consumption and economic growth has significant policy implications. If, for example, there exists unidirectional Granger causality running from income to energy, it may be implied that energy conservation pol

15、icies may be implemented with little adverse or no effects on economic growth. In the case of negative causality running from employment to energy (Akarca and Long, 1979), total employment could rise if energy conservation policy were to be implemented. On the other hand, if unidirectional causality

16、 runs from energy consumption to income, reducing energy consumption could lead to a fall in income or employment. The finding of no causality in either direction, the so-called neutrality hypothesis (Yu and Jin, 1992), would imply that energy conservation policies do not affect economic growth.This

17、 paper examines the energy income relationship for four energy-dependent Asian developing countries: India, Indonesia, the Philippines and Thailand. These countries were chosen because they represent energy-dependent LDCs which are poised for take-off into a phase of industrialization. We depart fro

18、m previous studies by considering a trivariate model (energy, income and prices) rather than the usual bivariate approach. This approach offers the opportunity to investigate other channels in the causal links between energy consumption and economic growth.2. Economic and energy use profilesThe four

19、 countries are heavily populated and have a combined total of 1.3 billion people (Table 1).Of the four, India is the least wealthy on a per capita income basis of comparison, with a per capita GDP of US$380(1996 dollars )which is the average for the South Asia region. The others have per capita inco

20、mes of over US$1000 (see Table 1).All four countries recorded high annual growth rates in their manufacturing sectors in 1996, ranging from 10.5%for Indonesia to 5.6%for the Philippines. Of course, these impressive growth rates would have declined in 1997 and beyond in view of the Asian financial cr

21、isis. To maintain the high levels of economic output these countries make high demands on energy resources.Table 1 reports figures for per capita energy use and carbon dioxide emissions for the four countries in the sample. Energy use per capita is highest for Thailand in 1995 with 878 kg, followed

22、by Indonesia with 442 kg per capita. India has the lowest per capita energy use with 260 kg. Carbon dioxide emissions per capita are also relatively high, ranging from 2.9 metric tons for Thailand to 0.9 metric tons for the Philippines. Most of the countries have to rely on imports for their energy

23、needs, except Indonesia which is a net exporter of fuel. India is among the largest consumers of energy in the region. Indias energy sources comprise mainly coal, and were estimated to be 244 million metric tons in 1991 (OECD, 1993).Table 1Per capita energy use and carbon dioxide emissions (1995)aIn

24、dicatorIndiaIndonesiaThailandPhilippinesPopulation mid-1996 (millions)945.1197.160.071.0GNP per capita 1996 (US$)380108029601160Manufacturing (average growth rate %p.a.)8.110.57.75.6Energy use per capita (kg)260442878307CO2 emissions per capita (mton)1.01.52.90.9aSource:World Bank (1998).The above f

25、igures show that Asian LDCs account for a significant proportion of world energy consumption. Given the recent phenomenal growth in awareness of and concern for global warming, an examination of the energy income relationship has implications for energy policy in these countries. It is important to

26、add that most of the studies referred to above have dealt with advanced or newly industrialized countries (NICs) and it may be argued that the results are not applicable to countries at a different stage of development. 3. Methodology and data The modeling strategy adopted in this study was based on

27、 the now widely used Engle Granger methodology (see Granger and Newbold, 1974; Engle and Granger, 1981).The augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF) and Phillips Perron (PP) tests of stationarity were used (Dickey and Fuller, 1981; Phillips and Perron, 1988). Following the unit root and cointegration tests, we

28、 estimated the following error correction model:Dyt=A21(L)Dyt-1+A22(L)Dent-1+A23(L)Dpt-1+yECTt-1+u2t (1)Dent=A11(L)Dyt-1+A12(L)Dent-1+A13(L)Dpt-1+enECTt-1+u1t (2)Dpt=A31(L)Dyt-1+A32(L)Dent-1+A32(L)Dpt-1+pECTt-1+u3t (3)where yt, ent, pt are real income, energy consumption and prices, respectively; D

29、is a difference operator; A i j(L) are polynomials in the lag operator L;ECT is the lagged error-correction term (s) derived from the long-run cointegrating relation-ship; and the uits are error-correction terms assumed to be uncorrelated and random with mean zero. The coefficients,i(i=en, y, p),of

30、the ECT s represent the deviation of the dependent variables from the long-run equilibrium.Through the error-correction mechanism, the ECM opens up an additional causality channel which is overlooked by the standard Granger (1969) and Sims (1972) testing procedures. In the Granger sense a variable X

31、 causes another variable Y if the current value of Y can better be predicted by using past values of X than by not doing so. The Granger causality testing procedure involves testing the significance of the A i js conditional on the optimum lags1. Through the ECT, an error correction model offers an

32、alternative test of causality (or weak exogeneity of the dependent variable).If, for example, en is zero, then it can be implied that the change in en t does not respond to deviation in long-run equilibrium in period t-1.Also, if en is zero and both A11 and A13 are zero, it can be implied that income and prices do not Granger-cause energy consumption. The non-significance of both the t and Wald F-statistics in the ECM will imply that the dependent variable is weakly exogenous.2If the variables, yt, ent and pt are cointegrated then it is expected t