精讲精析比尔盖茨关于病毒演讲Thenextoutbreak We.docx

1、精讲精析比尔盖茨关于病毒演讲The next outbreak WeThe next outbreak ? Were not ready下一场疫情什么时候爆发，我们还没有准备好【导读】世界卫生组织的布鲁斯艾尔沃德说：“埃博拉病毒威胁着使我们成为人类的一切。”埃博拉疫情在2014年爆发时，引起了世界范围的恐慌。但是人类可以击败埃博拉病毒-艾伦沃德展示了四种策略来展示我们如何取得成功。他说，与埃博拉的斗争尚未获胜，但是我们可以获胜。【导读】(S1)WhenI was a kid,the disaster we worriedaboutmost was a nuclear war.(S2)Thats

2、whywe had a barrel like this down in our basement,filledwith cans of food and water.(S3)Whenthe nuclear attack came,we were supposed to go downstairs, hunker down, and eat out of that barrel.解析：1.第一句和第三句中when引导的时间状语从句。2.about后面省略that,后接宾语从句。3.第二句中的why引导的表语从句，此外，filled是过去分词作伴随状语。我小时候，我们最担心的灾难是核战争。这就是

3、为什么我们地下室有一个这样的桶，里面装满了罐头食品和水。当核攻击来临时，我们应该下楼，蹲下来，从桶里吃东西。(S1)Today the greatest risk of global catastrophe(灾难)doesnt look like this.(S2)Instead, it looks like this.(S3)Ifanything kills over 10 million people in the next few decades,its most likely to be a highly infectious virusrather than a war.(S4)No

4、t missiles, but microbes.(S5)Now, part of the reason for this isthatweve invested a huge amount in nuclear deterrents.(S6)But weve actually invested very little in a system to stop an epidemic.(S7)Were not ready for the next epidemic.解析：1.第三句中的if引导的条件状语从句。2.第五句中that引导的表语从句。今天，全球灾难的最大灾难并不像这样。相反，它看起来像

5、这样。如果在未来几十年里有什么东西杀死了超过1000万人，那很可能是一种高度传染性的病毒，而不是一场战争。不是导弹，而是微生物。现在，部分原因是我们在核威慑方面投入了大量资金。但我们实际上在阻止流行病的系统上投入很少。我们还没准备好迎接下一场流行病。(S1)Lets look at Ebola.(S2)Im sure all of you read about it in the newspaper,lots of tough challenges.(S3)I followed it carefully through the case analysis toolswe use to trac

6、k polio eradication.(S4)Andasyou look atwhatwent on,the problem wasntthatthere was a systemthatdidnt work well enough,the problem wasthatwe didnt have a system at all.(S5)In fact, theres some pretty obvious key missing pieces.解析：1.第五句是典型的并列复合句：首先是as引导的时间状语从句，其里面又包括what引导的宾语从句。其次是这个主句中包含that引导的并列表语从句

7、，第一个that和第三个that都是表语从句的that引导不作任何成分。第三是这个主句中的第二that引导的定语从句修饰限定system。注意：这句话比较复杂，需要好好理解！让我们看看埃博拉。我相信你们都在报纸上看到过，很多艰难的挑战。我仔细地研究了我们用来追踪根除小儿麻痹症的病例分析工具。当你看看发生了什么，问题不是有一个系统工作得不够好，问题是我们根本没有一个系统。事实上，有一些很明显的关键缺失。(S1)We didnt have a group of epidemiologists ready to go,whowould have gone,seenwhatthe disease wa

8、s, seenhowfar it had spread.(S2)The case reports came in on paper.(S3)It wasvery delayedbeforethey were put onlineand they were extremely inaccurate.(S4)We didnt have a medical team ready to go.(S5)We didnt have a way of preparing people.(S6)Now, Mdecins Sans Frontires did a great job orchestrating

9、volunteers.(S7)But even so, we were far slowerthanweshould have beengettingthe thousands of workers into these countries.(S8)And a large epidemic would require us to have hundreds of thousands of workers.(S9)There wasno onethere to lookat treatment approaches.(S10)No oneto look at the diagnostics.(S

10、11)No oneto figure out what tools should be used.(S12)As an example, wecould havetaken the blood of survivors,processed it, and put that plasma back in people to protect them.(S13)But that was never tried.解析：1.第一句中who以引导的非限制定语从句。2.第一句中的who以引导的非限制定语从句中又包括what 和how引导的宾语从句。3.第三句中的it was.before引导的时间状语从句

11、。4.第七句中包含than引导的比较状语从句，且其从句的谓语用should引导的虚拟语气。5.第九句中包含 省略that 引导的no one.从句，作表语从句，而且这与第十句和十一句是并列结构，实际上是三个并列表语从句。6.第十二句中包含could引导的虚拟语气。我们没有一组流行病学家准备去，他们会去，看看疾病是什么，看看它传播了多远。案件报告是书面的。在他们被放到网上之前，这是非常延迟的，而且非常不准确。我们还没有一支医疗队准备出发。我们没有办法让人们做好准备。现在，无国界医生组织在组织志愿者方面做得很好。但即便如此，我们还是远远慢于把成千上万的工人带到这些国家的速度。一场大规模的流行病需要

12、我们有成千上万的工人。那里没有人去看治疗方法。没有人看诊断。没有人知道应该使用什么工具。举个例子，我们可以采集幸存者的血液，对其进行处理，然后将血浆放回人体以保护他们。但从未尝试过。(S1) So there was a lotthatwas missing.(S2)And these things are really a global failure.(S3)The WHO is funded to monitor epidemics,butnot to do thesethingsI talked about.(S4)Now, in the movies its quite differ

13、ent.(S5)Theres a group of handsome epidemiologists ready to go,they move in, they save the day, but thats just pure Hollywood.解析：1.第一句中that引导的定语从句修饰先行词lot,这里的lot是名词。2.第三句中的but引导的是不定式的并列结构作目的状语，这里表示转折的意思。3.第三句中的things后面省略that引导的宾语从句，things在从句作about的宾语。所以很多东西都不见了。这些都是全球性的失败。世卫组织的资金是用来监测流行病的，但不是用来做我所说的

14、这些事情。现在，在电影里就完全不同了。有一群英俊的流行病学家准备去，他们搬进来，他们拯救了这一天，但那只是纯粹的好莱坞。(S1) The failure to prepare could allow the next epidemicto be dramatically more devastating than Ebola.(S2)Lets look at the progression of Ebola over this year.(S3)About 10,000 people died,and nearly all were in the three West African coun

15、tries.(S4)Theres three reasonswhyit didnt spread more.(S5)The first isthatthere was a lot of heroic work by the health workers.(S6)They found the people and they prevented more infections.(S7)The second is the nature of the virus.(S8)Ebola does not spread through the air.(S8)And bythe timeyoure cont

16、agious,most people aresosickthattheyre bedridden.(S10)Third, it didnt get into many urban areas.(S1)And that was just luck.(S12)Ifithad gotteninto a lot more urban areas,the case numbers would have been much larger.解析：1.第三句中why引导的定语从句修饰先行词reasons。2.第五句中that引导的表语从句。3.第八句为the time后面省略when引导的世间状语从句。4.第

17、八句中so.that引导的是结果状语从句。5.第十二句中if引导的虚拟条件句，注意had gotten时态。如果不做好准备，下一次疫情可能会比埃博拉更具破坏性。让我们来看看埃博拉今年的进展。大约1万人死亡，几乎所有人都在三个西非国家。有三个原因，为什么它没有传播更多。首先是卫生工作者做了很多英勇的工作。他们发现了这些人，并防止了更多的感染。第二是病毒的性质。埃博拉病毒不会通过空气传播。当你感染的时候，大多数人都已经病入膏肓了。第三，它没有进入许多城市地区。那只是运气。如果它进入更多的城市地区，病例数量就会大得多。(S1)So next time, we might not be so luck

18、y.(S2)You can have a viruswherepeople feel well enoughwhiletheyre infectiousthatthey get on a plane or they go to a market.(S3)The source of the virus could be a natural epidemic like Ebola,or it could be bioterrorism.(S4)So there are thingsthatwould literally make things a thousand times worse.解析：1

19、.第二句中整体上上并列复合句，while引导的时间状语从句，其后的从句的又有that引导的宾语从句。2.第二句中整体上上并列复合句，while引导的时间状语从句，其前的主句中包含where引导的定语从句。所以下次，我们可能就没那么幸运了。你可能有一种病毒，当人们感染到飞机上或去市场时，他们感觉很好。病毒的来源可能是像埃博拉这样的自然流行病，也可能是生物恐怖主义。所以有些事情会让事情变得更糟。(S1)In fact, lets look at a model of a virus spread through the air,like the Spanish Flu back in 1918.(

20、S2)So hereswhatwould happen:It would spread throughout the world very, very quickly.(S3)And you can see over 30 million people died from that epidemic.(S4)So this is a serious problem.(S45)We should be concerned.解析：1.第二句中what引导的表语从句。事实上，让我们看看一个病毒在空气中传播的模型，比如1918年的西班牙流感。所以接下来会发生的事情是：它会非常迅速地传播到全世界。你可以

21、看到超过3000万人死于这种流行病。所以这是一个严重的问题。我们应该关心。(S1)But in fact, we can build a really good response system.(S2)We have the benefits of all the science and technologythatwe talk about here.(S3)Weve got cell phonesto get information from the public and get information out to them.(S4)We have satellite mapswhere

22、we can seewherepeople are andwheretheyre moving.(S5)We have advances in biologythatshould dramatically change the turnaround time to look at a pathogenand be able to make drugs and vaccinesthatfit for that pathogen.(S6)So we can have tools,but those tools need to be put into an overall global health

23、 system.(S7)And we need preparedness.解析：1.第二句中that引导的定语从句修饰先行词science and technology，且先行词有all修饰。2.第四句中三个where引导的并列定语从句。3.第五句为第一个that引导的定语从句修饰先行词biology。4.第五句为第二个that引导定语从句。但事实上，我们可以建立一个非常好的反应系统。我们从这里所谈论的所有科学技术中获益。我们有手机从公众那里获取信息，并把信息传递给他们。我们有卫星地图，可以看到人们在哪里，他们在哪里移动。我们在生物学方面取得了进展，这将显著改变观察病原体的周转时间，并能够生产

24、出适合该病原体的药物和疫苗。因此，我们可以拥有工具，但这些工具需要纳入全球卫生系统。我们需要准备。(S1)The best lessons, I think, onhow to getpreparedare again,whatwe do for war.(S2)For soldiers, we have full-time, waiting to go.(S3)We have reservesthatcan scale us up to large numbers.(S4)NATO has a mobile unitthatcan deploy very rapidly.(S5)NATO d

25、oes a lot of war games to check, are people well trained?(S6)Do they understand about fuel and logisticsand the same radio frequencies?(S7)So they are absolutely ready to go.(S8)So those are the kinds ofthingswe need to deal with an epidemic.解析：1.第一句中how to do结构作介词On的宾语。2.第一句中what引导的从句作介词on宾语。3.第四句t

26、hat引导的定语从句修饰先行词unit。4.第七句中things后面省略that引导的定语从句。我认为，关于如何做好准备，最好的教训还是我们为战争所做的。对于士兵，我们有全职的，等待着离开。我们有储备，可以扩大我们的数量。北约有一支机动部队，可以很快部署。北约做了很多战争游戏来检查，人们受过良好的训练吗？他们了解燃油和物流以及相同的无线电频率吗？所以他们完全准备好了。所以这些是我们应对流行病所需要的。(S1)What are the key pieces?(S2)First, we need strong health systems in poor countries.(S3)Thatswh

27、eremothers can give birth safely,kids can get all their vaccines.(S4)But, also where well see the outbreak very early on.(S5)We need a medical reserve corps:lots of peoplewhove got the training and backgroundwhoare ready to go, with the expertise.(S6)And then we need to pair those medical people wit

28、h the military，taking advantage of the militarys ability to move fast, do logisticsand secure areas.(S7)We need to do simulations,germ games, not war games,so thatwe seewherethe holes are.(S8)The last time a germ game was done in the United Stateswas back in 2001, and it didnt go so well.(S9)So far

29、the score is germs: 1, people: 0.Finally, we need lots of advanced R&D in areas of vaccines and diagnostics.(S10)There are some big breakthroughs, like the Adeno-associated virus,thatcould work very, very quickly.解析：1.第三句中where引导表语从句。2.第五句中两个who引导的并列定语从句。3.第七句为so that引导的结果状语从句，其从句中包含where引导的宾语从句。4.第

30、八句中so.that引导的是结果状语从句。5.第十句中that引导的隔开定语从句，有插入语位于先行词和从句之间。关键部分是什么？首先，我们需要贫穷国家强有力的卫生系统。在那里，母亲可以安全生产，孩子可以得到所有的疫苗。但是，我们很早就会看到爆发的地方。我们需要一支医疗后备队：很多受过训练、有背景、有专业知识的人。然后我们需要把那些医务人员和军队配对。利用军队快速行动的能力，做后勤和安全区域。我们需要做模拟，细菌游戏，而不是战争游戏，这样我们才能看到漏洞在哪里。上一次在美国做细菌游戏是在2001年，结果不太顺利。到目前为止，得分是细菌：1，人：0。最后，我们需要在疫苗和诊断领域进行大量先进的研发

31、。有一些重大突破，如腺相关病毒，可以非常，非常迅速地发挥作用。(S1)Now I dont have an exact budget forwhatthis would cost,butIm quitesureits very modest compared to the potential harm.(S2)The World Bank estimatesthat ifwe have a worldwide flu epidemic,global wealth will go down by over three trillion dollarsand wed have millions and millions of deaths.(S3)These investments offer significant benefitsbeyond just being ready for the epidemic.(S4)The primary healthcare, the