1、最新计量经济学第三版庞浩版课后答案全汇编第二章2.2(1)对于浙江省预算收入与全省生产总值的模型,用Eviews分析结果如下:Dependent Variable: YMethod: Least SquaresDate: 12/03/14 Time: 17:00Sample (adjusted): 1 33Included observations: 33 after adjustmentsVariableCoefficientStd. Errort-StatisticProb.X0.1761240.00407243.256390.0000C-154.306339.08196-3.948274
2、0.0004R-squared0.983702Mean dependent var902.5148Adjusted R-squared0.983177S.D. dependent var1351.009S.E. of regression175.2325Akaike info criterion13.22880Sum squared resid951899.7Schwarz criterion13.31949Log likelihood-216.2751Hannan-Quinn criter.13.25931F-statistic1871.115Durbin-Watson stat0.1000
3、21Prob(F-statistic)0.000000由上可知,模型的参数:斜率系数0.176124,截距为154.3063关于浙江省财政预算收入与全省生产总值的模型,检验模型的显著性:1)可决系数为0.983702,说明所建模型整体上对样本数据拟合较好。2)对于回归系数的t检验:t(2)=43.25639t0.025(31)=2.0395,对斜率系数的显著性检验表明,全省生产总值对财政预算总收入有显著影响。用规范形式写出检验结果如下:Y=0.176124X154.3063 (0.004072) (39.08196)t= (43.25639) (-3.948274)R2=0.983702 F=
4、1871.115 n=33经济意义是:全省生产总值每增加1亿元,财政预算总收入增加0.176124亿元。(2)当x=32000时,进行点预测,由上可知Y=0.176124X154.3063,代入可得:Y= Y=0.176124*32000154.3063=5481.6617进行区间预测:先由Eviews分析:XYMean6000.441902.5148Median2689.280209.3900Maximum27722.314895.410Minimum123.720025.87000Std. Dev.7608.0211351.009Skewness1.4325191.663108Kurtos
5、is4.0105154.590432Jarque-Bera12.6906818.69063Probability0.0017550.000087Sum198014.529782.99Sum Sq. Dev.1.85E+0958407195Observations3333由上表可知,x2=(XiX)2=2x(n1)= 7608.0212 x (331)=1852223.473(XfX)2=(320006000.441)2=675977068.2当Xf=32000时,将相关数据代入计算得到:5481.66172.0395x175.2325x1/33+1852223.473/675977068.2Y
6、f5481.6617+2.0395x175.2325x1/33+1852223.473/675977068.2即Yf的置信区间为(5481.661764.9649, 5481.6617+64.9649)(3) 对于浙江省预算收入对数与全省生产总值对数的模型,由Eviews分析结果如下:Dependent Variable: LNYMethod: Least SquaresDate: 12/03/14 Time: 18:00Sample (adjusted): 1 33Included observations: 33 after adjustmentsVariableCoefficientSt
7、d. Errort-StatisticProb.2、会数,会读,会写100以内的数,在具体情境中把握数的相对大小关系,能够运用数进行表达和交流,体会数与日常生活的密切联系。3、第五单元“加与减(二)”,第六单元“加与减(三)” 在“加与减”的学习中,结合生活情境,学生将经历从具体情境中抽象出加减法算式的过程,进一步体会加减法的意义;探索并掌握100以内加减法(包括不进位、不退位与进位、退位)和连加、连减、加减混合的计算方法,并能正确计算;能根据具体问题,估计运算的结果;初步学会应用加减法解决生活中简单问题,感受加减法与日常生活的密切联系。8 4.164.22 有趣的图形1 整理复习2函数的增减
8、性:(三)实践活动(5)直角三角形的内切圆半径LNX0.9802750.03429628.58268|a|的越小,抛物线的开口程度越大,越远离对称轴y轴,y随x增长(或下降)速度越慢。0.0000圆心;垂直于弦;平分弦;平分弦所对的优弧;平分弦所对的劣弧。C(6)直角三角形的外接圆半径-1.918289(一)情感与态度:0.268213-7.1521210.0000R-squared0.963442Mean dependent var5.573120Adjusted R-squared0.962263S.D. dependent var1.684189S.E. of regression0.3
9、27172Akaike info criterion0.662028Sum squared resid3.318281Schwarz criterion0.752726Log likelihood-8.923468Hannan-Quinn criter.0.692545F-statistic816.9699Durbin-Watson stat0.096208Prob(F-statistic)0.000000模型方程为:lnY=0.980275lnX-1.918289由上可知,模型的参数:斜率系数为0.980275,截距为-1.918289关于浙江省财政预算收入与全省生产总值的模型,检验其显著性
10、:1)可决系数为0.963442,说明所建模型整体上对样本数据拟合较好。2)对于回归系数的t检验:t(2)=28.58268t0.025(31)=2.0395,对斜率系数的显著性检验表明,全省生产总值对财政预算总收入有显著影响。经济意义:全省生产总值每增长1%,财政预算总收入增长0.980275%2.4(1)对建筑面积与建造单位成本模型,用Eviews分析结果如下:Dependent Variable: YMethod: Least SquaresDate: 12/01/14 Time: 12:40Sample: 1 12Included observations: 12VariableCoe
11、fficientStd. Errort-StatisticProb.X-64.184004.809828-13.344340.0000C1845.47519.2644695.796880.0000R-squared0.946829Mean dependent var1619.333Adjusted R-squared0.941512S.D. dependent var131.2252S.E. of regression31.73600Akaike info criterion9.903792Sum squared resid10071.74Schwarz criterion9.984610Lo
12、g likelihood-57.42275Hannan-Quinn criter.9.873871F-statistic178.0715Durbin-Watson stat1.172407Prob(F-statistic)0.000000由上可得:建筑面积与建造成本的回归方程为:Y=1845.475-64.18400X(2)经济意义:建筑面积每增加1万平方米,建筑单位成本每平方米减少64.18400元。(3)首先进行点预测,由Y=1845.475-64.18400X得,当x=4.5,y=1556.647再进行区间估计:用Eviews分析: YXMean1619.3333.523333Media
13、n1630.0003.715000Maximum1860.0006.230000Minimum1419.0000.600000Std. Dev.131.22521.989419Skewness0.003403-0.060130Kurtosis2.3465111.664917Jarque-Bera0.2135470.898454Probability0.8987290.638121Sum19432.0042.28000Sum Sq. Dev.189420.743.53567Observations1212由上表可知,x2=(XiX)2=2x(n1)= 1.9894192 x (121)=43.5
14、357(XfX)2=(4.53.523333)2=0.95387843当Xf=4.5时,将相关数据代入计算得到:1556.6472.228x31.73600x1/12+43.5357/0.95387843Yf1556.647+2.228x31.73600x1/12+43.5357/0.95387843即Yf的置信区间为(1556.647478.1231, 1556.647+478.1231)第三章3.2)对出口货物总额计量经济模型,用Eviews分析结果如下:Dependent Variable: YMethod: Least SquaresDate: 12/01/14 Time: 20:25
15、Sample: 1994 2011Included observations: 18VariableCoefficientStd. Errort-StatisticProb.X20.1354740.01279910.584540.0000X318.853489.7761811.9285120.0729C-18231.588638.216-2.1105730.0520R-squared0.985838Mean dependent var6619.191Adjusted R-squared0.983950S.D. dependent var5767.152S.E. of regression730
16、.6306Akaike info criterion16.17670Sum squared resid8007316.Schwarz criterion16.32510Log likelihood-142.5903Hannan-Quinn criter.16.19717F-statistic522.0976Durbin-Watson stat1.173432Prob(F-statistic)0.000000由上可知,模型为:Y = 0.135474X2 + 18.85348X3 - 18231.58对模型进行检验: 1)可决系数是0.985838,修正的可决系数为0.983950,说明模型对样
17、本拟合较好2)F检验,F=522.0976F(2,15)=4.77,回归方程显著3)t检验,t统计量分别为X2的系数对应t值为10.58454,大于t(15)=2.131,系数是显著的,X3的系数对应t值为1.928512,小于t(15)=2.131,说明此系数是不显著的。(2)对于对数模型,用Eviews分析结果如下:Dependent Variable: LNYMethod: Least SquaresDate: 12/01/14 Time: 20:25Sample: 1994 2011Included observations: 18VariableCoefficientStd. Err
18、ort-StatisticProb.LNX21.5642210.08898817.577890.0000LNX31.7606950.6821152.5812290.0209C-20.520485.432487-3.7773630.0018R-squared0.986295Mean dependent var8.400112Adjusted R-squared0.984467S.D. dependent var0.941530S.E. of regression0.117343Akaike info criterion-1.296424Sum squared resid0.206540Schwa
19、rz criterion-1.148029Log likelihood14.66782Hannan-Quinn criter.-1.275962F-statistic539.7364Durbin-Watson stat0.686656Prob(F-statistic)0.000000由上可知,模型为:LNY=-20.52048+1.564221 LNX2+1.760695 LNX3对模型进行检验:1)可决系数是0.986295,修正的可决系数为0.984467,说明模型对样本拟合较好。2)F检验,F=539.7364 F(2,15)=4.77,回归方程显著。3)t检验,t统计量分别为-3.77
20、7363,17.57789,2.581229,均大于t(15)=2.131,所以这些系数都是显著的。(3)(1)式中的经济意义:工业增加1亿元,出口货物总额增加0.135474亿元,人民币汇率增加1,出口货物总额增加18.85348亿元。(2)式中的经济意义:工业增加额每增加1%,出口货物总额增加1.564221%,人民币汇率每增加1%,出口货物总额增加1.760695%3.3(1)对家庭书刊消费对家庭月平均收入和户主受教育年数计量模型,由Eviews分析结果如下:Dependent Variable: YMethod: Least SquaresDate: 12/01/14 Time: 20
21、:30Sample: 1 18Included observations: 18VariableCoefficientStd. Errort-StatisticProb.X0.0864500.0293632.9441860.0101T52.370315.20216710.067020.0000C-50.0163849.46026-1.0112440.3279R-squared0.951235Mean dependent var755.1222Adjusted R-squared0.944732S.D. dependent var258.7206S.E. of regression60.8227
22、3Akaike info criterion11.20482Sum squared resid55491.07Schwarz criterion11.35321Log likelihood-97.84334Hannan-Quinn criter.11.22528F-statistic146.2974Durbin-Watson stat2.605783Prob(F-statistic)0.000000模型为:Y = 0.086450X + 52.37031T-50.01638对模型进行检验:1)可决系数是0.951235,修正的可决系数为0.944732,说明模型对样本拟合较好。2)F检验,F=
23、539.7364 F(2,15)=4.77,回归方程显著。3)t检验,t统计量分别为2.944186,10.06702,均大于t(15)=2.131,所以这些系数都是显著的。经济意义:家庭月平均收入增加1元,家庭书刊年消费支出增加0.086450元,户主受教育年数增加1年,家庭书刊年消费支出增加52.37031元。(2)用Eviews分析:Dependent Variable: YMethod: Least SquaresDate: 12/01/14 Time: 22:30Sample: 1 18Included observations: 18VariableCoefficientStd.
24、Errort-StatisticProb.T63.016764.54858113.854160.0000C-11.5817158.02290-0.1996060.8443R-squared0.923054Mean dependent var755.1222Adjusted R-squared0.918245S.D. dependent var258.7206S.E. of regression73.97565Akaike info criterion11.54979Sum squared resid87558.36Schwarz criterion11.64872Log likelihood-
25、101.9481Hannan-Quinn criter.11.56343F-statistic191.9377Durbin-Watson stat2.134043Prob(F-statistic)0.000000Dependent Variable: XMethod: Least SquaresDate: 12/01/14 Time: 22:34Sample: 1 18Included observations: 18VariableCoefficientStd. Errort-StatisticProb.T123.151631.841503.8676440.0014C444.5888406.17861.0945650.2899R-squared0.483182Mean dependent var1942.933Adjusted R-squared0.450881S.D. dependent var698.8325S.E. of regression517.8529Akaike info criteri
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