经济金融词汇.docx

1、经济金融词汇摩根斯坦利：美国经济难以实现V型复苏2009-06-09 14:46:41提要：面对金融形势好转及一系列经济数据优于预期，市场越发相信，美国经济衰退已结束，健康的经济回升近在眼前。但本文认为，四项因素几乎排除了出现V型复苏的可能性：首先，金融形势仍将处于抑制性状态；其次，住房供求失衡依然严重；第三，消费者去杠杆化、恢复财务健康和增加储蓄漫长过程才刚刚开始；第四，本次衰退影响广泛，包括外部经济活动在内，任何相对强劲的经济部门对于衰退的缓冲作用都是有限的。不过，还不能完全排除美国经济快速复苏的可能性。鉴于经济前景不明朗，投资者应谨慎行事。（外脑精华北京）面对金融形势的实质性好转和一系列

2、优于预期的经济数据，市场越发相信，美国经济衰退已经结束、健康的经济回升近在眼前。确实，关于经济周期的知识以及“扎诺维茨法则”（Zarnowitzs Law）都表明，深度衰退之后往往是V型复苏。因此，似乎有理由认为，本次二战以来最严重的衰退过后，美国经济将出现强劲复苏。但对此观点，我们却不能苟同。我们认为，虽然近期美国经济前景有所缓和，但衰退仍将持续下去。我们最重要的理由在于，四项因素几乎排除了出现V型复苏的可能性。首先，金融形势仍将保持相对紧缩的状态；其次，住房供求失衡依然严重，其对房价和该部门经济活动的影响将持续到2010年；第三，消费者去杠杆化、恢复财务健康和增加储蓄漫长过程才刚刚开始，因

3、而支出增长将受到抑制；第四，本次衰退影响广泛，因此，包括外部经济活动在内，任何相对强劲的经济部门对于衰退的缓冲作用都是有限的。历史经验支持我们的观点。历史上的金融危机往往会导致资产价值出现持久性的大幅下滑。因此，其后果不仅是深度经济衰退，而且衰退之后的复苏将是迟缓而漫长的。金融环境仍处于紧缩状态，不足以推动快速复苏事实上，我们关于复苏迟缓的观点得到了四项因素的支持。首先，金融形势仍将保持相对紧缩的状态。目前，贷款机构的损失仍在增加，这限制了它们的风险承受度和资产负债表的运作能力，因而抑制了信贷供应、推升了信贷成本。贷款机构清理资产负债表的缓慢过程将使其贷款能力处于低位、放贷成本处于高位，而监管

4、的加强将增进这种限制因素。我们认为，这种长期存在的制约因素将影响美国经济中所有的信贷敏感型部门，包括住房、耐用消费品、资本支出以及各类企业的营运资本。日前，全美独立企业联盟刚刚发布报告称，4月份，小企业获取信贷的难度达到了29年来的最高点。再以汽车金融部门为例，虽然该部门的贷款价值比率略有上升，从12月份的86%增至89%，但该部门企业对首付比率的要求却比去年提高了一倍以上。而且，金融形势的变化不会立刻引发经济走势的变化，这种时滞将阻碍经济的迅速复苏。当然，随着金融体系中资本的增加、证券化活动的回暖，金融机构间的竞争将压低信贷成本。但我们认为，这种转变还很遥远。由于危机的创伤及其引发的监管面反

5、应，信贷成本将长期高于危机前的水平。住房供求仍严重失衡，市场尚未见底第二，住房供求失衡依然严重，其对房价和该部门经济活动的影响将持续到2010年。目前，二手单户住宅的空置率已经比截至2004年的历史平均水平（1.2%）高了一倍。鉴于金融条件仍保持抑制性状态，因此该指标还将在历史平均水平之上停留一段时间，从而压低供求失衡的规模；鉴于止赎事件再次开始增加，情况就更是如此。因此，只有在买家开始买进市场上空置的75万套二手单户住宅之后，房市和房价才有望走稳；而这又意味着，新房和二手房的销售速度必须比目前的水平上升约20%25%。商业房地产市场的情况与住房市场类似，空置率正在上升，租金正在下跌。消费者去

6、杠杆化刚刚开始，积压需求不可指望第三，消费者去杠杆化、恢复财务健康和增加储蓄漫长过程才刚刚开始。我们认为，未来几年中，居民储蓄率将由目前的4%升至710%。这个过程意味着美国需求的缓慢增长。有人认为，经历了近期的销售低迷，汽车和耐用消费品市场积聚了庞大的积压需求，但我们不能苟同。无疑，要维持全美2.45亿辆轻型车辆的存量，每年的汽车销量应达到1300万辆左右，才能弥补正常的损耗。然而，在金融条件的限制下，消费者可以在销量低于正常水平的情况下忍耐34年。因为过去的13年中，汽车销量一直高于正常水平，而且目前的轻型车数量比注册司机数量多15%。净出口对经济增长没有贡献第四，本次衰退的广度限制了相对

7、强势的经济部门的缓冲作用。举例来说，虽然亚洲经济增长看似在好转，但美国的出口仍将受制于全球衰退。近2年前危机初起之时，净出口对美国经济实际同比增长率的贡献度超过1个百分点；而今的情况则不同，我们预计，未来18个月之中，海外经济活动对美国经济增长的贡献度将是零、甚至为负。短期经济疲软的证据仍占据上风我们认为，表明短期之内经济处于疲软状态的证据仍将占据上风。最新数据显示，房价、税前实际收入和企业利润率都在下降，同比降幅分别为18%、0.3%和2个百分点。虽然减税措施已经于4月1日开始实施，但零售额却又一次下滑。企业定价能力正在削弱，半成品和资本品部门尤为突出，在同类进口品价格下跌的压力下，情况就更

8、是如此。仍处于高位的库存销售比率意味着，企业界还将进一步减产：据我们估算，3月份，制造业和商业的库存销售比率已回升到1.43个月，相当于本轮周期的高点。目前，申请破产的公司正在不断增加，这些公司将清理库存。汽车公司的大幅减产将使GDP损失约1个百分点。此外，虽然首次申请失业保险的人数已经趋稳，但继续申请的人数则急剧增加，绝对人数创下历史新高，以在劳动力总数中所占的比率衡量，也达到27年来的最高点。快速复苏的可能性不能完全排除不过，上述证据或许不足以彻底驳倒认为美国经济将快速复苏的乐观观点。美国经济要实现快速复苏，关键在于将信贷市场与经济之间的恶性循环转变为良性循环。事实上，如果不存在不利因素，

9、这正是经济复苏的典型情形：强有力的政策行动打破了从亏损、到信贷紧缩加剧、到经济形势恶化、再到亏损进一步增加的恶性循环。经济刺激政策的效力首先在于消除系统性的“尾部”风险；举例来说，虽然美国大银行进行的“压力”测试的效力受到了质疑，但测试结果确实降低了与金融系统尾部风险相关的不确定性。而且，由于金融股的回升，一些金融机构无需政府担保，即可通过发行股票或债券筹集资金。在这种乐观情形之下，金融形势的改善将提高市场的风险承受度、减少预期信贷损失、刺激贷款机构向可信赖的借款者放贷的意愿、并使得消费者和企业得以通过融资来支持支出和营运资本。金融形势的改善还有助于财政刺激措施发挥效力。经济复苏的典型周期性机

10、制能够满足衰退时期的积压需求，加之库存清理转变为库存积累，由此将出现可持续的强劲经济回升。总之，就认为美国经济将迅速复苏的观点而言，其逻辑可谓颇为清晰，那么，这种观点能否得到证据的支持？目前，确实有一些金融和经济证据支持这种观点。首先，金融形势对经济的抑制性确实有所减弱。尤为突出的是，货币市场和融资市场形势明显改善，已恢复到雷曼兄弟事件之前的水平。这意味着，对于交易对手风险和流动性风险的担忧基本已经消失。而且，金融中介功能的恢复对银行资产负债表构成的压力将迅速消退，其速度之快有可能超出我们的预期。由于政策利率处于历史低位，加之LIBOR-OIS利差持续收缩（现已降至63个基点），因此到5月中旬

11、，3月期LIBOR利率经过连续7周下滑，已降至创纪录低点。第二，实体经济方面也有令人鼓舞的证据：过去2个季度中美国产出的急剧下滑已经结束；虽然支出再次走弱，但消费者不再大力紧缩开支。汽车销售已停止下降，而“旧车换补贴”计划也有助于汽车销售。住房需求和大额耐用消费品订单看来正在走稳，商业调查结果也在好转。而且，企业正在大力清理库存，库存销售比率已停止上升，失业申报人数看来也已见顶。经济走势尚不明朗，投资者应谨慎行事可惜，无论是赞成还是反对美国经济将迅速复苏的观点都缺少决定性的证据。举例来说，我们不能排除这样的可能性：如果企业界认为库存清理已经过度，就可能出现库存带动的短期产出回升。因此，对投资者

12、而言，谨慎观察、寻找机遇是一种合理的策略。目前，高风险资产的价格已经充分反映了经济复苏的预期，beta值较大（说明系统性风险较大）、质量较低的企业和行业尤其如此。然而，摩根斯坦利的汇率分析团队认为，投资者风险承受度的增强将削弱美元。而且，虽然摩根斯坦利的美国股市策略分析团队认为，美国周期股优于全球性周期股，但他们也认为，美元疲软给全球性周期股带来了吸引力。摩根斯坦利的信贷策略分析师认为，市场很可能会更加青睐高质量借款者，因此增持高质量资产是合理的选择。最后，摩根斯坦利的利率策略团队认为，利率的大幅上升最终会来临；但在短期之内，经济复苏进程有可能无法达到市场期望的水平，加之再次出现通缩恐慌的风险

13、依然存在，因此就目前而言，3.25%将是10年期美国国债收益率的上限。英文原文：V-Shaped Recovery UnlikelyWhat shape recovery?Genuine improvement in financial conditions and a string of less-bad economic data have increased speculation that the recession is now ending and a healthy rebound might be at hand. Indeed, business cycle lore and

14、 the law - Zarnowitzs Law - associate deep recessions with V-shaped recoveries, and thus it would be reasonable to expect a strong recovery following the deepest post-war recession. But we disagree. We concede that the near-term outlook is a bit less dire, but in our view the recession has further t

15、o go.Most important, however, we strongly believe that four factors make a V-shaped rebound unlikely:First, financial conditions will stay relatively restrictive. Second, a still-large imbalance between housing supply and demand likely will remain a drag on home prices and housing activity into 2010

16、. Third, consumers have only begun a long process of deleveraging and repairing their balance sheets and saving positions, so spending growth should be subdued. And finally, the breadth of the recession limits the cushion from any stronger sectors, including activity overseas.However, a sub-par reco

17、very seems to be the consensus view, so its important to look at upside risks.In what follows, we examine the logic and recent evidence for our call, and then consider the circumstances that could potentially promote a more vigorous rebound.A strong case for a sub-par recovery.The history of financi

18、al crises is on our side; because they result in deep and prolonged declines in asset values, such crises not only promote deep recessions, but typically the aftermath involves prolonged convalescence.More specifically, four factors underpin our case for a sub-par recovery. First, financial conditio

19、ns will stay relatively restrictive. Losses are still rising at lenders, limiting risk appetite and balance sheet capacity, and thus restraining the availability and boosting the cost of credit. A slow cleaning up of lenders balance sheets will keep lending capacity low and the cost of using it comp

20、aratively high, and increased regulatory oversight will reinforce that restraint. We think that such lingering restraint will affect all credit-sensitive areas of the economy, including housing, consumer durables, capital spending and working capital for businesses large and small. As evidence, the

21、National Federation of Independent Businesses just reported that, in April, credit was harder to obtain by small businesses than at any time in the past 29 years. And while loan-to-value ratios at auto finance companies rose slightly in April - to 89% from 86% in January-February - required downpaym

22、ents were still more than double what lenders wanted last year.Moreover, the lags between the change in financial conditions and the economy will prevent rapid progress. To be sure, as Morgan Stanley interest rate strategist Laurence Mutkin argues, when more capital comes into the financial system,

23、and securitization revives, competition will erode the high rates lenders are able to charge for the use of their balance sheets today. In our view, however, that time may be far off, and both the scars from the crisis and the regulatory response to it probably will keep those costs permanently high

24、er than pre-crisis norms.Second, the imbalance between supply and demand in housing is still significant and likely will remain a drag on home prices and housing activity into 2010. The single-family vacancy rate in existing homes is double the 1.2% historical average through 2004. Given the persist

25、ently tight financing backdrop, vacancies might undershoot that old 1.2% norm for a while to bring down the supply/demand imbalance quickly, especially as foreclosures rise again. Consequently, prospective buyers need to start occupying roughly 750,000 single-family vacant homes before the housing m

26、arket and home prices stabilize. In turn, this implies that new and existing home sales must rise by roughly 20-25% from the current pace. Likewise, in commercial real estate, vacancy rates and cap rates are rising and rents are falling.Third, consumers have only begun the process of deleveraging an

27、d repairing their balance sheets and saving positions, and we believe that the personal saving rate, currently at 4%, will rise to 7-10% in the next few years. This process will mean slower growth in US demand. Some argue that pent-up demand for vehicles and durables is strong following the recent r

28、etrenchment in sales. We disagree. Its true that to maintain the stock of vehicles on the road （245 million light vehicles） given normal scrappage would require about 13 million vehicles sold annually. But with financing constrained, we think that consumers can endure 3-4 years of sales below those

29、levels, since we spent the last 13 above them, especially with 15% more light vehicles on the road than licensed drivers.Finally, the breadth of the recession limits the cushion from any stronger sectors. For example, while growth appears to be improving in Asia, the global recession will limit US e

30、xports. Unlike the experience since the crisis began nearly two years ago, in which net exports contributed more than a full percentage point on average to real US growth, we expect that the cyclical contribution to US growth from overseas activity will be flat to down over the next 18 months.We thi

31、nk that the evidence for near-term economic weakness still dominates.Home prices, pre-tax real incomes and profit margins are declining - by 18%, 0.3%, and 2 percentage points, respectively, over the past year. Retailing is softening again, despite tax cuts that kicked in on April 1. Pricing power i

32、s fading, notably for business semi-finished and capital goods, and especially as import prices for similar goods are falling. High inventory-to-sales ratios suggest further production cuts: In March, we estimate that the real I/S ratio in manufacturing and trade rose back to 1.43 months, equaling the cycle high. Finally, as more companies file for bankruptcy, we think they will liquidate stocks. Big production cuts in autos will trim roughly one percentage point from GDP. And, in contrast with the leveling off in initial claims for unemployment insurance