Practice Questions for Risk.docx

1、Practice Questions for RiskPractice Questions INSTRUCTIONS: Note the most suitable answer for each multiple-choice question in the appropriate space on the answer sheet.1. A project manager has the option of proposing one of three systems to a client: a full-feature system that not only satisfies th

2、e minimum requirements but also offers numerous special functions (the “Mercedes”); a system that meets the clients minimum requirements (the “Yugo”); and a system that satisfies the minimum requirements plus has a few extra features(the “Toyota”). The on-time records and associated profits and loss

3、es are depicted on the decision tree below. What is the expected monetary value of the “Toyota” system? Profit/loss On Time（准时） Prob（可能性）=60% $100,000 Late（迟到） Prob（可能性）=40% ($30,000) Mercedes On Time（准时） Prob（可能性）=90% $50,000 Toyota Late（迟到） Prob（可能性）=10% ($10,000)YugoOn Time （准时） Prob（可能性）=99% $10

4、,000Late（迟到） Prob（可能性）=1% ($1,000)a. $9,900b. $44,000c. $45,000d. $48,000一个项目经理有机会向客户提议三个系统：一个全功能的系统，不仅能满足最低需要，还提供无数的特殊功能（奔驰）；另一个系统满足客户的最低要求（Yugo），第三个满足最低要求，再加上几个额外的功能（丰田）。根据时间的记录和相关的利润损失在下面的决策树上描述。丰田系统的预期的货币价值是多少？a. 9,900b. $44,000c. $45,000d. $48,0002. The first requirement for effective risk mana

5、gement isa. Clear visibility of the information needed for decision makingb. Ownership of the risks that are identifiedc. Appointment of the project manager early in the process to manage the identified risksd. Project team members who are trained in risk and understand its causes to help construct

6、and implement risk mitigation strategies有效的风险管理的第一个要求是：a. 清楚地看见决策所需要的信息b. 确认风险的所有权c. 在过程的早期任命项目经理来管理确认的风险d. 项目队员经过风险的培训，理解风险来源以帮助形成和实施风险减缓战略3. A person estimates that a commute home will most likely take 1 hour. On further questioning, she estimates that the trip could take as little as 45 minutes,

7、best case, or 1 hour 45 minutes, worst case. What is the standard deviation based on the estimates?a. 10 minutesb. 15 minutesc. 50 minutesd. 60 minutes一个人估计到家的往返时间很可能是1小时。进一步询问之后，她估计最好情况下只花45分钟，最差情况会花1小时45分钟。这个基础上的标准背离是多少？a. 10分钟b. 15分钟c. 50分钟d. 60分钟4. Projects are particularly susceptible to risk b

8、ecausea. Murphys law states that “if something can go wrong, it will”b. Each project is unique in some measurec. Project management tools are generally unavailable at the project team leveld. There are never enough resources to do the job项目特别容易受风险的影响，因为：a. 墨非法则说“如果什么事要错，它终将会错”b. 每个项目在某种程度上都是独特的c. 项目

9、管理工具通常不能到达项目团队层面d. 工作所需的资源总是不够用5. Of the following types of historical information that serve as input to risk identification, which one is the least reliable?a. Project filesb. Commercial databasesc. Project team knowledged. Lessons learned databases下面作为风险确认输入的历史信息里，哪个是最不可靠的？a. 项目档案b. 商业数据库c. 项目团队知

10、识d. 得到的教训数据库6. The term risk portfolio refers toa. Risk quantification strategiesb. Identified schedule and cost risksc. Cumulative EMV of the most critical risksd. Risk data assembled for the management of the project风险文件夹指的是：a. 风险量化战略b. 确认的日程和开支风险c. 累积的多数关键风险的EMVd. 项目管理的风险数据7. The Delphi method is

11、 a particularly useful risk quantification technique toa. Present a sequence of decision choices graphically to decision makersb. Define the probability assessments relating to future eventsc. Determine probability assessments relating to future eventsd. Help take into account the attitude toward ri

12、sk of the decision maker德尔非方法在风险量化技术里尤其有用，以用来：a. 用图项目决策者展示决策选择的顺序b. 定义同未来事件相关的可能性评估c. 决定同未来事件相关的可能性评估d. 帮助把决策者对风险的态度考虑进来8. A workaround isa. An unplanned response to negative risk eventsb. A plan of action to follow when something unexpected occursc. A specific response to certain types of risk as d

13、escribed in the risk management pland. A proactive, planned method of responding to risks权变措施是：a. 对负面风险事件的没有计划的反应b. 不可预料的事情发生时遵从的行动计划c. 在风险管理计划里描述的对某些类型的风险的特殊反应d. 事先计划好的对风险反应的方法9. Most statistical simulations of budgets, schedule, and resource allocations use which of the following approaches?a. PER

14、Tb. Decision-tree analysisc. Present value analysisd. Monte Carlo analysis多数预算、日程和资源分配的数据模拟使用下面哪种方法？a. PERTb. 决策树分析c. 目前价值分析d. Monte Carlo分析10. In the path convergence example below, if the odds of completing activities 1, 2, and 3 are 50%, 50% and 50%, respectively, what are the chances of starting

15、 activity 4 on day 6？ a. 10%b. 13%c. 40%d. 50%在下面路径集中的例子里，如果完成行动1、2和3的几率是50%，50%和50%， 第6天开始任务4的可能性是多少？a. 10%b. 13%c. 40%d. 50%11. All the following criteria are considered essential to the assessment of technical risk excepta. Planned procedures for completing project activitiesb. Explicit attention

16、 to technical risk, not just to schedule or cost risk with consideration of technical risk impliedc. Critical path analysisd. Reassessment to detect changes in risk during a systems development下面的原则都被看作是技术风险评估的基本原则，除了：a. 计划好的完成项目行动的程序b. 对技术风险清楚的关注，不是只关注日程或开支风险，对包含的技术风险仅做考虑c. 关键路径分析d. 重新评估以发现系统形成中的风险

17、变化12. Range estimating identifies all the following excepta. Mathematical probability that a cost overrun will occurb. Risks and opportunities ranked in order of bottom-line importancec. The contingency required for a given level of confidenced. The specific risk event impacting the estimate区间确认识别以下

18、所有的，除了：a. 超支发生的数学可能性b. 风险和机会从最不重要开始的排列c. 特定水平的信心要求的应急储备d. 影响估计的个别风险事件13. Each of the following statements about risk avoidance is true except that ita. Focuses on eliminating the elements that are creating the riskb. Includes making the decision not to bid on a project in which the risk exposure is

19、believed to be too highc. Accepts the consequences of the risk event should it occurd. . Includes leaving the risk with the customer when the customer is in the best position to mitigate the risk下面每个关于避免风险的说法都是正确的，除了说它：e. 集中消除产生风险的因素f. 包括决定对风险高的项目做出不投标的决策g. 接受风险发生时的后果h. 包括在客户能最大减缓风险时把风险留给客户14. If th

20、e probability of event 1 is 80% and of event 2 is 70% and they are independent events, how likely is it that both events will occur?a. 6%b. 15%c. 24%d. 56%如果时间1的可能性是80%，时间2的可能性是70%。他们是独立的事件。两个都发生的可能性是多少？i. 6%j. 15%k. 24%l. 56%15. The WBS is a key input to the risk identification process because ita.

21、 Identifies all the work that must be done and, therefore, helps identify potential sources of riskb. Identifies all the work that must be done and, therefore, includes all the risks on the projectc. Helps organize all the work that must be done on the projectd. Identifies work packages, which enabl

22、es specific responsibility to be assignedWBS是风险确认过程的关键输入是因为：a. 确认一定要完成的所有工作，从而帮助确认潜在的风险来源b. 确认一定要完成的所有工作，从而包括项目的所有风险c. 帮助组织项目一定要完成的全部工作d. 确认促使工作分配的工作包16. To be effective, the risk management process shoulda. Be applied primarily during the concept and closeout phases and to some extent during the im

23、plementation and planning phasesb. Be applied throughout the project and at all levels of system decomposition and project organizationc. Include assembly of certain stakeholders to identify risks and develop mitigation strategiesd. Focus on those risks that senior management finds most critical为了有效

24、，风险管理过程应该：a. 主要用在概念和结束阶段，一定程度用在实施和计划阶段b. 用于整个项目和系统分解和项目机构的所有层面c. 包括分派某些干系人去确认风险和形成缓和方案d. 集中精力在高层管理认为最关键的风险17. Management reserve is used fora. Risks that are identified at the outset of the projectb. Risks that are not identified at the outset of the project but are known before they occurc. Risks t

25、hat cannot be known before they occur because they are external risksd. Any risks that cannot be known before they occur管理储备是用在：a. 项目开始时确认的风险b. 项目开始时没有确认，但在它们发生前知道的风险c. 发生前不知道的风险，因为它们是外部风险d. 发生前不知道的任何风险18. The simplest form of risk analysis isa. Probability analysisb. Sensitivity analysisc. The Delp

26、hi methodd. Utility theory风险分析的最简单方法是：a. 可能性分析b. 敏感性分析c. Delphi方法d. 用途原理19. If a business venture has a 60% chance to earn 2 million and a 20% chance to lose $1.5 million, what is the expected monetary value of the venture?a. ($50,000)b. $300,000c. $500, 000d. $900,000如果一个业务投资有60%的机会赢得两百万，20%的机会损失一百

27、五十万，这个投资的货币价值是：a. 50,000)b. $300,000c. $500,000d. $900,00020. Categories of risk response area. Technical, marketing, financial, and humanb. Identification, quantifications, response development, and response controlc. Avoidance, mitigation, and acceptanced. Avoidance, retention, control, and deflec

28、tion风险回应的种类是：a. 技术、市场、财政和人b. 确认、量化、形成回应和回应控制c. 避免、缓解和接受d. 避免、保持、控制和偏转21. Which of the following is not a disadvantage of using statistical approaches to quantify risk?a. Input data may be inaccurate and incompleteb. Managers sometimes rely on computer-produced results that are detailed and impressiv

29、e but inaccurate, which makes decision making difficultc. Risk specialists may understand the statistical complexities but fail in communicating what they knowd. Statistical techniques are considered too theoretical when applied to risk下面哪一个不是使用统计方法把风险量化的一个劣势？a. 输入的数据可能不准确、不完整b. 经理有时依赖计算机产生的详细而有给人深刻

30、印象但不确切的数据，使决策困难c. 风险专家可能了解统计的复杂性，但没能同告诉别人他知道的d. 应用到风险中时，统计技术被认为太理论化22. Of the following risk quantification approaches, which one considers the attitude of the decision maker toward risk?a. Decision-tree analysisb. Sensitivity analysisc. Utility theory d. Decision theory在下面的风险量化方法里，哪个考虑了决策者对待风险的态度？a

31、. 决策树分析b. 敏感性分析c. 应用原理d. 决策理论23. Risk exposure measures thea. Variability of the estimateb. Product of the probability and impact of the riskc. Range of schedule and cost outcomesd. Reduced monetary value of the risk event风险暴露测量：a. 估计的可变性b. 可能性的产品和风险的影响c. 日程和开支结果的区间d. 风险事件减少的货币价值24. Additional risk response development is needed when thea. WBS is changedb.