经济学人时文阅读.docx

1、经济学人时文阅读Drain or gain?失去还是得到？WHEN people in rich countries worry about migration, they tend to think of low-paid incomers who compete for jobs as construction workers, dishwashers or farmhands. When people in developing countries worry about migration, they are usually concerned at the prospect of t

2、heir best and brightest decamping to Silicon Valley or to hospitals and universities in the developed world. These are the kind of workers that countries like Britain, Canada and Australia try to attract by using immigration rules that privilege college graduates. 富裕国家的人担忧移民，他们往往想到的是，新来的移民收入低，他们通常都是

3、建筑工人，洗碗工或是农场工人，他们为了这些工作而竞争。而当贫穷国家担忧移民时，通常他们担心的是，自己国家最优秀和最聪明的人都潜逃到了硅谷，或发达国家的医院以及大学。英国、加拿大、澳大利亚这些国家用移民政策吸引大学毕业生，给他们特别优惠，留在该国工作。Lots of studies have found that well-educated people from developing countries are particularly likely to emigrate. By some estimates, two-thirds of highly educated Cape Verde

4、ans live outside the country. A big survey of Indian households carried out in 2004 asked about family members who had moved abroad. It found that nearly 40% of emigrants had more than a high-school education, compared with around 3.3% of all Indians over the age of 25. This “brain drain” has long b

5、othered policymakers in poor countries. They fear that it hurts their economies, depriving them of much-needed skilled workers who could have taught at their universities, worked in their hospitals and come up with clever new products for their factories to make. 许多研究发现，发展中国家受过良好教育的人特别有可能会移民国外，一些预测说

6、，佛得角国家的三分之二受过高等教育的人都住在国外。2004年有人对印度家庭进行了大规模调查。该调查是有关移居海外的家庭成员进行的。 调查发现，近乎40%的移民都受到过高中以上的教育，与此相比，所有超过25岁的印度人，只有大概3.3%受过高中以上的教育。这种人才流失长期以来都困扰着贫穷国家的决策者们。他们害怕这会伤及自身经济，剥夺他们急需的技术工人，而这些工人本来可以在他们的大学里任教，在医院里工作，为工厂研发出新产品。Many now take issue with this view (see article). Several economists reckon that the brai

7、n-drain hypothesis fails to account for the effects of remittances, for the beneficial effects of returning migrants, and for the possibility that being able to migrate to greener pastures induces people to get more education. Some argue that once these factors are taken into account, an exodus of h

8、ighly skilled people could turn out to be a net benefit to the countries they leave. Recent studies of migration from countries as far apart as Ghana, Fiji, India and Romania have found support for this “brain gain” idea.现在许多人都不同意这种观点（见文章）。一些经济学家认为，人才流失说没有考虑到移居海外的居民汇款回国的影响，移民回流的有利影响，能够迁移到新天地获取更多教育的可

9、能的影响。一些人认为一旦把这些因素考虑在内，一大批高技能人才可能会成为他们祖国的净效益。最近对远至加纳、斐济、印度和罗马尼亚这些国家的移民的研究发现，这些国家的移民情况证明了“人才获得”这一观点。The most obvious way in which migrants repay their homelands is through remittances. Workers from developing countries remitted a total of $325 billion in 2010, according to the World Bank. In Lebanon,

10、Lesotho, Nepal, Tajikistan and a few other places, remittances are more than 20% of GDP. A skilled migrant may earn several multiples of what his income would have been had he stayed at home. A study of Romanian migrants to America found that the average emigrant earned almost $12,000 a year more in

11、 America than he would have done in his native land, a huge premium for someone from a country where income per person is around $7,500 (at market exchange rates).最明显的方式是移民通过汇款回报他们的祖国。据世界银行说，2010年来自发展中国家的移民汇了3250亿美元回国。在黎巴嫩、莱索托、尼泊尔、塔吉克斯坦以及一些其他地方，汇款超过了GDP的20%。一个有技术的移民能够赚到比国内工资多好几倍的钱。一项对美国的罗马尼亚移民的研究发现，

12、平均每个移民在美国比在家里能多赚12000美元一年。对于来自一个每个人的收入只有大概7500美元（基于市场汇率）的国家来说，这是巨额。It is true that many skilled migrants have been educated and trained partly at the expense of their (often cash-strapped) governments. Some argue that poor countries should therefore rethink how much they spend on higher education. I

13、ndians, for example, often debate whether their government should continue to subsidise the Indian Institutes of Technology (IITs), its elite engineering schools, when large numbers of IIT graduates end up in Silicon Valley or on Wall Street. But a new study of remittances sent home by Ghanaian migr

14、ants suggests that on average they transfer enough over their working lives to cover the amount spent on educating them several times over. The study finds that once remittances are taken into account, the cost of education would have to be 5.6 times the official figure to make it a losing propositi

15、on for Ghana. 不错，许多有技术的移民已受到了教育和培训，部分费用由政府出，而政府往往是现金短缺的。有人认为，贫穷国家应该重新考虑他们在高等教育上的支出数目。比如，印度人经常争论政府是否应该继续资助印度理工学院精英工程学校，因为大量的印度理工学院的毕业生最终到了美国硅谷或华尔街工作。但是一项有关加纳移民汇款回国的新研究表明，平均地，在他们工作生涯中向国内汇的款足以支付花在他们身上的教育支出的好几倍。该研究发现，一旦把汇款考虑在内，那要把教育费用变成现在官方数字的5.6倍，才能使之成为加纳的亏本生意。There are more subtle ways in which the de

16、parture of some skilled people may aid poorer countries. Some emigrants would have been jobless had they stayed. Studies have found that unemployment rates among young people with college degrees in countries like Morocco and Tunisia are several multiples of those among the poorly educated, perhaps

17、because graduates are more demanding. Migration may lead to a more productive pairing of peoples skills and jobs. Some of the benefits of this improved match then flow back to the migrants home country, most directly via remittances.还有更微妙的方式，一些有技能的离境人员可以帮助更贫穷的国家。一些原来在国内无业的人，移民后可以在新的国家留下来。研究发现，在摩洛哥、突

18、尼斯这些国家，拥有大学学历的年轻人的失业率是低学历者的几倍，也许是因为对毕业生的要求更苛刻。移民可能会导致人的技能和工作更有效的配对。这种匹配得到改善后，一些好处会回到移民的祖国，最直接的方式是通过汇款。The possibility of emigration may even have beneficial effects on those who choose to stay, by giving people in poor countries an incentive to invest in education. A study of Cape Verdeans finds tha

19、t an increase of ten percentage points in young peoples perceived probability of emigrating raises the probability of their completing secondary school by around eight points. Another study looks at Fiji. A series of coups beginning in 1987 was seen by Fijians of Indian origin as permanently harming

20、 their prospects in the country by limiting their share of government jobs and political power. This set off a wave of emigration. Yet young Indians in Fiji became more likely to go to university even as the outlook at home dimmed, in part because Australia, Canada and New Zealand, three of the top

21、destinations for Fijians, put more emphasis on attracting skilled migrants. Since some of those who got more education ended up staying, the skill levels of the resident Fijian population soared. 通过给贫穷国家动力来投资教育，移民甚至会对那些选择留在新国家的居民产生有利影响的可能性。一个对佛得角人的研究发现，年轻人对移民感知率增加10个百分点，他们完成中学学业的可能性就会增加大概八个百分点。另一项研究

22、着眼于斐济。印度裔斐济人目睹了1987年开始的一系列政变，永久地伤害了他们在该国的前景，因为他们在政府的工作机会以及政治权力受到限制。这掀起了移民潮。但是年轻的印度裔斐济人更容易上大学，然而在印度上大学的机会却很渺茫。部分原因是澳大利亚、加拿大、新西兰，是斐济人移民目的地的前三名国家，这些国家更加重视吸引有技术的移民。因为一些受过高等教育的移民选择留在斐济，所以斐济常住人口的技术水平得到了飙升。Passport to richesMigrants can also affect their home country directly. In a recent book about the In

23、dian diaspora, Devesh Kapur of the University of Pennsylvania argues that Indians in Silicon Valley helped shape the regulatory structure for Indias home-grown venture-capital industry. He also argues that these people helped Indian software companies break into the American market by vouching for t

24、heir quality. Finally, migrants may return home, often with skills that would have been hard to pick up had they never gone abroad. The study of Romanian migrants found that returnees earned an average of 12-14% more than similar people who had stayed at home. Letting educated people go where they w

25、ant looks like the brainy option. 通往财富的护照移民也会直接地影响到自己的祖国。最近，在一本有关印度海外侨民的书上，宾夕法尼亚大学的戴维斯卡普尔认为，在硅谷的印度人帮助印度构成了印度本土的风险投资业的监管结构。他还认为，这些人通过保证印度软件公司产品的质量来帮助它们打入美国市场。最终，移民们也许会带着技术重返家园，如果他们不再出国，那么他们很难重拾那些技术了。对罗马尼亚移民的研究发现，海归比一般呆在国内的居民多赚1214%的钱。允许受教育的人去任何他们想去的地方看起来是个聪明的选择。How to generate investment 怎样带动投资Sep 12

26、th 2011, 15:34 by R.A. | WASHINGTON THIS would seem to be the week when economists argue that a shortfall in investment is the main problem with the American economy. In the New York Times, both Robert Barro and Greg Mankiw wrote this weekend that glum businesses should be Americas main concern. Mr

27、Barro suggests that the Obama administrations focus on temporary measurestemporary tax cuts, delayed increases in tax rates, and delayed imposition of various regulationshas left businesses lacking the confidence and certainty they need to invest. What would he do?看来这一周将是经济学家们论证美国经济的最大问题乃是缺乏投资的一周了，本

28、周末Robert Barro 和Greg Mankiw都在纽约时报上撰写文章称美国人最忧心的应该就是贸易萧条了。Barro文章中暗示奥巴马政府集中精力在一些临时措施上，如临时性减税，延迟税率增加，以及各种条例管制的延期推行，使得商界信心不足，对投资举棋不定。那么他将如何举措呢？If we could get past the political fallout, we could get more revenue and improve economic efficiency by abolishing the corporate income tax and relying instead

29、on a VAT.I had a dream that Mr. Obama and Congress enacted this fiscal reform package triggering a surge in the stock market and a boom in investment and G.D.P. and that he was re-elected.“如果我们能够渡过政治动荡的余波，我们就能通过废除企业所得税转而投向附加税来增加国家税收并提高经济活动的运作效率。”“我盼望有一天奥巴马和美国国会制定颁布出财政改革的整套计划，以此激发股票市场的大幅回升和投资与国民生产总值的

30、剧增，当然，他如果连任的话。”Mr Mankiws take on investment is a bit more nuanced:而Mankiw则是更加细致入微表地达了自己在在投资上的看法：Yet fluctuations in investment spending, rather than being only a passive response, are also one of the driving forces of the booms and busts of the business cycle. The great economist John Maynard Keyne

31、s suggested that investment spending is in part determined by the “animal spirits” of investors, which he described as “a spontaneous urge to action rather than inaction.” Recessions occur when optimism turns to pessimism, and businesses are reluctant to place bets on a prosperous future. Recovery o

32、ccurs when investor confidence returns.“然而投资领域内，投资支出波动不仅仅只是被动作出对市场的反应，它也是决定商业周期繁荣或是萧条的动力。伟大的经济学家凯恩斯也曾表明，投资者的“动物精神”也是决定投资支出多少的部分原因，他称之为是人的无意识的对投资作出反应的自我激发，而不是束手待毙.当人们由乐观转向悲观就发生经济萧条，人们不愿为繁荣未来赌一把，而当投资者的信心回归经济复苏也就来临了。”To be sure, both points of view may well be true. The relationship between investment and the overall economy is what an engineer would call a positive feedback loop. Greater business investment would increase hiring, both by those who produce the investment goods and those who buy them. Greater employment would mean more workers taking home paychecks, which in turn w